EPTWCS Europe Season 2 - Premier League
Ro16: Group A Preview
Mvp, HasuObs, Grubby, Ret
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
VODs on Youtube
Ro16 Group A Preview
Yikes, looks like we're going to have to get that banner changed sometime. Sadly, sixteen players have been eliminated from the WCS Europe Premier League, including high finishers from last tournament such as TLO, DIMAGA and ForGG. But the defending champion still carries on, looking to take his second consecutive WCS Europe title.
Countdown to games:
In pursuit of that goal,
LG-IM_Mvp must feel good about drawing a soft group. 'Soft' is a relative term here, as Ret, Grubby, and HasuObs would be considered some very undesirable groupmates for most European competitors. But they're not the biggest threats Mvp could face on his road to back to back titles. MMA, a bitter rival since 2011, is off in Group C. Stephano, the runner-up of the previous season, was drawn into Group B. MC, the master of all-ins, is away in Group D. In comparison, the trio of players in Group A can't help but seem easier.However, StarCraft II is a game with a significant amount of variance, so there's no guarantee that Mvp is going to make it out of this group, palatable as it may be.
There's one quirk in Mvp's play that makes me think he could be particularly vulnerable: he likes to take risks regardless of the caliber of his opponent. A lot of people will tell you that the superior player should always play as safe and standard as possible, and just try to outplay his opponent in regular macro games. Flash did that amazingly well in Brood War, while players like INnoVation and Rain have had some success with this approach in SC2 as well. On the other hand, Mvp generally doesn't mind doing risky things against supposedly 'lesser' opponents – he notably used some marine-tank builds to topple SaSe last WCS. On the other hand, sometimes his risks just don't pay off, like when Scarlett took a map off LG-IM in the GSTL by perfectly countering Mvp's blue-flame hellion build.
So, as we look at the Europeans in the group, I'll list a few ways the games could play out that might see them topple the champ.
Liquid`Ret may have a career winning record against Mvp, but in HotS he's probably going to get worn down by Mvp's MMM in normal games. Even if he makes it to the late game with his economy intact, it's easy to envision 100 supply of Ret's ultralisks getting instantly turned into hamburger by marauders. Fortunately for Ret, Mvp doesn't play straight up MMM openers as often as you'd think. How Ret might beat Mvp
- Read and deflect the marauder-hellbat push: Mvp should know that his marauder-hellbat timings are very exposed now, but I get the feeling Mvp's not one to preemptively shelf a strat before someone beats it. It could be a surprisingly easy win for Ret if he reads it (harder than it sounds on paper) and crushes it on defense.
- Mvp goes mech: There's a lot of differing opinions on the viability of mech in HotS, but in any case, Mvp has kept it in his playbook as a mix-up tool. Any strat Mvp does that allows Zerg to press the "R" button a lot gives Ret a better chance at causing the upset.
Grubby used to be our poster boy for slow but steady improvement, but TLO has wrested that position away from him with the advent of HotS. It seems like Grubby is stuck in the zone between good and great, looking like a fringe contender in non-Korean tournaments, and not being quite consistent enough against Koreans (while still taking the occasional series off them) to challenge for championships in the more difficult tourneys. In order to get over this hump, I'd like to recommend that he spend some time as a player-caster. Hey, it worked wonders for ToD and HasuObs!How Grubby might beat Mvp
- Go all-in with gateway units: It really doesn't matter what level Terran player you are: a Protoss all-in with good force-fields can really ruin your day. Mvp isn't known for being especially weak to Protoss all-ins, but they've been the cause of a handful of notable defeats in his Code S career. Genius once took a hilarious 2 – 0 victory at a time when Genius > Mvp really should not have been a possible result, while Creator once sent Mvp out of Code S with a 4-gate. All-ins are far from a sure thing, but they could be the best chance Grubby has against a player of Mvp's caliber.
- Go all-in with gateway units and immortals: See above.
- Go all-in with gateway units and void rays/oracles: See above.
- Go all-in with gateway units and blink: See above.
First, go look at
mouz.HasuObs' record for the month of July on Aligulac.com. Yup, that's a 40 - 12 record for a 77% win rate. Excuse me while I yell "WHAT THE F***?" If the word bonjwa wasn't so misused to the point of being meaningless, I would dub HasuObs "The foreigner bonjwa of online play in the month of July." Let's see if he can continue to play well in a live setting.How HasuObs might beat Mvp
- Play like HasuObs: It's not like I've passed around a survey or anything, but I get the feeling that most European Protoss players think they have a decent shot against any Korean Terran, IF they can get past the mid-game without taking some kind of catastrophic damage. That's easier said than done when playing against the micro and infuriating drop tactics of Koreans, but if Elfi can beat TaeJa in macro games, then SO CAN YOU.
Anyway, there's no player who's more suited to playing a defensive, late-game oriented style than HasuObs, as he was doing it way before 'spooning' became a popular StarCraft term. If HasuObs can withstand Mvp's drops early on, then he might be able to play games that make Mvp's wrists just give up and go home.
Predictions:
Mvp > Ret
Grubby > HasuObs
Mvp > Grubby
HasuObs > Ret
HasuObs > Grubby
Mvp and HasuObs advance.
More WCS Europe Season 2 Coverage
Aug 9 – Welmu and Duckdeok advance to Ro8 as Stephano plays his retirement matches.
Aug 8 – HasuObs and Grubby shock Mvp in Round of eight opener group.
July 18 – Russian duo of TitaN and Happy round out Ro16 by earning final two spots
July 17 – Terrans ForGG and Bunny eliminated as VortiX and Grubby move on
July 11 – NaNiwa and Lucifron top group F, Bly and uzer fall to Challenger
July 10 – Welmu takes first place in group E, upsetting Ret, BabyKnight, and ThorZaIN
Aug 9 – Welmu and Duckdeok advance to Ro8 as Stephano plays his retirement matches.
Aug 8 – HasuObs and Grubby shock Mvp in Round of eight opener group.
July 18 – Russian duo of TitaN and Happy round out Ro16 by earning final two spots
July 17 – Terrans ForGG and Bunny eliminated as VortiX and Grubby move on
July 11 – NaNiwa and Lucifron top group F, Bly and uzer fall to Challenger
July 10 – Welmu takes first place in group E, upsetting Ret, BabyKnight, and ThorZaIN
MC. He beats Siw, Socke, SaSe, SaSe, Adelscott... loses to ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/t9otBL3.jpg)
. I think MVP and Hasu/Grubby advance. Hard group for Ret.
