Yikes, looks like we're going to have to get that banner changed sometime. Sadly, sixteen players have been eliminated from the WCS Europe Premier League, including high finishers from last tournament such as TLO, DIMAGA and ForGG. But the defending champion still carries on, looking to take his second consecutive WCS Europe title.
Countdown to games:
In pursuit of that goal,LG-IM_Mvpmust feel good about drawing a soft group. 'Soft' is a relative term here, as Ret, Grubby, and HasuObs would be considered some very undesirable groupmates for most European competitors. But they're not the biggest threats Mvp could face on his road to back to back titles. MMA, a bitter rival since 2011, is off in Group C. Stephano, the runner-up of the previous season, was drawn into Group B. MC, the master of all-ins, is away in Group D. In comparison, the trio of players in Group A can't help but seem easier.
However, StarCraft II is a game with a significant amount of variance, so there's no guarantee that Mvp is going to make it out of this group, palatable as it may be.
There's one quirk in Mvp's play that makes me think he could be particularly vulnerable: he likes to take risks regardless of the caliber of his opponent. A lot of people will tell you that the superior player should always play as safe and standard as possible, and just try to outplay his opponent in regular macro games. Flash did that amazingly well in Brood War, while players like INnoVation and Rain have had some success with this approach in SC2 as well. On the other hand, Mvp generally doesn't mind doing risky things against supposedly 'lesser' opponents – he notably used some marine-tank builds to topple SaSe last WCS. On the other hand, sometimes his risks just don't pay off, like when Scarlett took a map off LG-IM in the GSTL by perfectly countering Mvp's blue-flame hellion build.
So, as we look at the Europeans in the group, I'll list a few ways the games could play out that might see them topple the champ.
Liquid`Ret may have a career winning record against Mvp, but in HotS he's probably going to get worn down by Mvp's MMM in normal games. Even if he makes it to the late game with his economy intact, it's easy to envision 100 supply of Ret's ultralisks getting instantly turned into hamburger by marauders. Fortunately for Ret, Mvp doesn't play straight up MMM openers as often as you'd think.
How Ret might beat Mvp
Read and deflect the marauder-hellbat push: Mvp should know that his marauder-hellbat timings are very exposed now, but I get the feeling Mvp's not one to preemptively shelf a strat before someone beats it. It could be a surprisingly easy win for Ret if he reads it (harder than it sounds on paper) and crushes it on defense.
Mvp goes mech: There's a lot of differing opinions on the viability of mech in HotS, but in any case, Mvp has kept it in his playbook as a mix-up tool. Any strat Mvp does that allows Zerg to press the "R" button a lot gives Ret a better chance at causing the upset.
Grubby used to be our poster boy for slow but steady improvement, but TLO has wrested that position away from him with the advent of HotS. It seems like Grubby is stuck in the zone between good and great, looking like a fringe contender in non-Korean tournaments, and not being quite consistent enough against Koreans (while still taking the occasional series off them) to challenge for championships in the more difficult tourneys. In order to get over this hump, I'd like to recommend that he spend some time as a player-caster. Hey, it worked wonders for ToD and HasuObs!
How Grubby might beat Mvp
Go all-in with gateway units: It really doesn't matter what level Terran player you are: a Protoss all-in with good force-fields can really ruin your day. Mvp isn't known for being especially weak to Protoss all-ins, but they've been the cause of a handful of notable defeats in his Code S career. Genius once took a hilarious 2 – 0 victory at a time when Genius > Mvp really should not have been a possible result, while Creator once sent Mvp out of Code S with a 4-gate. All-ins are far from a sure thing, but they could be the best chance Grubby has against a player of Mvp's caliber.
Go all-in with gateway units and immortals: See above.
Go all-in with gateway units and void rays/oracles: See above.
Go all-in with gateway units and blink: See above.
First, go look at mouz.HasuObs' record for the month of July on Aligulac.com. Yup, that's a 40 - 12 record for a 77% win rate. Excuse me while I yell "WHAT THE F***?" If the word bonjwa wasn't so misused to the point of being meaningless, I would dub HasuObs "The foreigner bonjwa of online play in the month of July." Let's see if he can continue to play well in a live setting.
How HasuObs might beat Mvp
Play like HasuObs: It's not like I've passed around a survey or anything, but I get the feeling that most European Protoss players think they have a decent shot against any Korean Terran, IF they can get past the mid-game without taking some kind of catastrophic damage. That's easier said than done when playing against the micro and infuriating drop tactics of Koreans, but if Elfi can beat TaeJa in macro games, then SO CAN YOU.
Anyway, there's no player who's more suited to playing a defensive, late-game oriented style than HasuObs, as he was doing it way before 'spooning' became a popular StarCraft term. If HasuObs can withstand Mvp's drops early on, then he might be able to play games that make Mvp's wrists just give up and go home.
Predictions: Mvp > Ret Grubby > HasuObs Mvp > Grubby HasuObs > Ret HasuObs > Grubby
Oh Terran King, please make up your mind. Are you good against Zerg or not? Mvp's WCS EU S1 performance showed domination against the best foreigner Zergs around (TLO, DIMAGA, Stephano), and he beat KangHo 2-1 during the S1 Finals... yet recently, he is 0-6 against Korean Zergs (CoCa, DongRaeGu, and Symbol). At this point, we are left wondering whether his TvZ can truly deliver in Korean-level competition.
Meanwhile, Ret isn't looking to be in the best shape either. While his teammates TLO and Snute surge ahead in results, Ret has had rather disappointing results lately. At DH Summer, HSC, and RSL, Ret lost to three different foreign Terrans (SjoW, Bunny, Dayshi). Overall, Ret's performance against Terran in HotS is lackluster, sitting at a 47% win ratio. Even with Ret's head-to-head advantage, can Ret truly pull off the upset a third time?
Mvp's TvZ win rate of 64% is impressive enough already, but let's examine that statistic more closely. His win ratio has been affected by his recent losses, which all took place during online qualifiers. What if we only look at Mvp's specialty, his offline games? Suddenly his win ratio jumps to 71%! Now, we all know Mvp is very good at beating up foreigners like Ret... let's only count his games against non-Koreans. Suddenly his TvZ win-ratio is 88%! Also, remember that Mvp is good at preparing for series, so let's only count Bo3 series or higher. That removes a GSTL loss against Scarlett, which puts us at...
...a 14-1 (93%) record! While Mvp has been struggling against Korean Zergs, it seems like his true calling in life is to beat up foreigner Zergs (like Ret) in offline LANs (such as WCS EU) in longer series (such as a Bo3). I must give the advantage to Mvp!
Grubby's PvT has been decent in HotS, but he hasn't regained that special touch which allowed him to grab deep tournament runs. Meanwhile, let's look at Mvp's TvP... starting with IEM, he beats Grubby, MaNa, Feast... loses to MC. He beats Siw, Socke, SaSe, SaSe, Adelscott... loses to Alicia. He beats elfi. Do you see the pattern here? Since Grubby is a foreign Protoss, it seems likely that Mvp will eat Grubby up.
Since HasuObs is another foreign Protoss, I could say the same here and favor Mvp heavily. However, HasuObs's PvT is quite strong. In fact, I would say that HasuObs has the greatest chance of upsetting Mvp. Still, I call it an upset because Mvp is still favored strongly over HasuObs. Since the two players have not met each other before, it will surely be an interesting showdown.
Will jet lag play a factor? Perhaps, but keep in mind that Mvp has rested in Korea for a very long time. He took a gamble by choosing to play WCS EU Ro32 from Korea, but he advanced safely. He was able to practice with his teammates for GSTL. When he found out his WCS EU Ro16 group, you can bet he practiced with ByuL, RagnaroK, and KangHo (for Zerg) and First, Squirtle, YongHwa, Ruin, and MC (for Protoss). I believe he will come into this group well-rested and well-prepared.
HerO, champion of AM, out in the Ro32. Soulkey, champion of KR, out in Ro8. INnoVation, champion of the world, out in Ro4. Mvp remains the only champion standing... today will be decisive. Will he fall out in the Ro32, landing between HerO and Soulkey? Or will he advance and become the only champion to take the first WCS seasons?
Predictions Mvp 2-0 Ret Grubby 1-2 HasuObs Mvp 2-0 HasuObs Ret 2-0 Grubby HasuObs 1-2 Ret
On August 05 2013 17:13 Waxangel wrote: it must be easy to write for the mvp fanclub, every prediction is "mvp should win, except if mma, then roll dice"
Can't wait for some MVP action. Hope Ret, Grubby and Hasu are paying close attention to those tips. Knowing MVP, he might have them translated and use them to play mind games.
Out of all sc2 players I love watching Mvp play the most, he always has amazing well prepared builds and sometimes pulls off unorthodox strats like the marine tank vs sase.
On August 05 2013 17:41 Nikon9 wrote: Grubby > HasuObs but then HasuObs > Grubby
doesn't make any sense to me :/
the format or the fact that grubby will win the first series and then lose the second? If format then, it's winner vs winner>loser vs loser>final match.
I want Grubby and Ret to make it. At least Grubby because Mvp should advance for sure. But I really hope the foreigners can give some good fight against him. It would be awesome if Grubby could win his BO3 vs Mvp. Not that I think it should happen though
just kidding :p .. i really dont know who comes out aside from Hasuobs .. and since this is not a r07 series play .. mvp isnt as dangerous as everyone thinks .. well we still cant count him out
On August 05 2013 17:41 Nikon9 wrote: Grubby > HasuObs but then HasuObs > Grubby
doesn't make any sense to me :/
It's to do with the experience. Sometimes the person fro the losers match beat the loser of the winner's match. Momentum and streakyness also has something on it.
Hoping for atleast one dutch guy to make it through, but it's the usual suspect in MVP to move on with any of them with the potential to become second. I'll go with Grubby for his skill to play nitch games and winning mentality.
On August 05 2013 16:37 lichter wrote: WHY WOULD YOU GIVE THEM TIPS
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it's not really suggestions, just ways I see possible upset scenarios playing out D:
If this (the game plans, and they work) is how it plays out I will never forgive you
it's not like he deserves to win this anyway. I don't care who he is, he needs to go back to KR and face the thunder or die.
If he wins it, then he obviously deserves to win by way of being the better player. As for going back to KR, he said himself if he hadn't of been in Code B at the beginning of WCS, he'd have stayed put. And he'd do well there, if his series last WCS Global Championship vs Innovation is any indication.
SO excited for these games....it's gonna be a really close set of matches but I agree I think MVP and HasuObs will advance (though I'd absolutely love to see Grubby pull it off!)
EPT
LG-IM_Mvp must feel good about drawing a soft group. 'Soft' is a relative term here, as Ret, Grubby, and HasuObs would be considered some very undesirable groupmates for most European competitors. But they're not the biggest threats Mvp could face on his road to back to back titles. MMA, a bitter rival since 2011, is off in Group C. Stephano, the runner-up of the previous season, was drawn into Group B. MC, the master of all-ins, is away in Group D. In comparison, the trio of players in Group A can't help but seem easier.
Liquid`Ret may have a career winning record against Mvp, but in HotS he's probably going to get worn down by Mvp's MMM in normal games. Even if he makes it to the late game with his economy intact, it's easy to envision 100 supply of Ret's ultralisks getting instantly turned into hamburger by marauders. Fortunately for Ret, Mvp doesn't play straight up MMM openers as often as you'd think. 
Grubby used to be our poster boy for slow but steady improvement, but TLO has wrested that position away from him with the advent of HotS. It seems like Grubby is stuck in the zone between good and great, looking like a fringe contender in non-Korean tournaments, and not being quite consistent enough against Koreans (while still taking the occasional series off them) to challenge for championships in the more difficult tourneys. In order to get over this hump, I'd like to recommend that he spend some time as a player-caster. Hey, it worked wonders for ToD and HasuObs!
MC. He beats Siw, Socke, SaSe, SaSe, Adelscott... loses to ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/t9otBL3.jpg)
. I think MVP and Hasu/Grubby advance. Hard group for Ret.
