After going less than .500 on predictions for Group A, I've imposed a self-ban on predictions. In additional penance, I've consigned myself to writing the Group A recap, so I can further remind myself about how wrong I was.


As always, make sure to have your handy Liquipedia results and standings ready before plunging into this recap!

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And now, some thoughts.

Stephano's Bittersweet Performance

In some ways, the result of Monday's games were worse than if Stephano had simply gone 0-4 and been eliminated convincingly. In that case, there would have been no excuses, no what-if's, just an undeniable conclusion.

Stephano gave us a taste of what he could do, going 2-2 while acquitting himself rather well against some of the best Korean players. It was time to move onto the main course, where a Best of Five against MMA, possibly Nestea, lay in wait.

However, a cruel technicality said that Stephano was out, and MC was in, due to their head to head record (MC beat Stephano) -- despite the fact that they both went 2-2 in the group. I blame the tie-break regulations, the order of the games, Mvp for not 4-0ing his group like he should have, and HerO for playing so poorly that 2-2 did not guarantee a top three finish. But rules are rules, even when they are cold and unpopular. Stephano would not be rewarded for his impressive Korean debut.*

As long as he remains a top foreigner, this is definitely not the last chapter in the story of Stephano vs the Koreans. For now, however, I can't help but feel that I lost something that I was owed. Well, here's to holding out until IdrA plays his up-down matches.


Stephano, again.

On the topic of Stephano, has Mvp single-handedly buried the Stephano style? By going for a Marine + blue flame Hellion composition during the mid-game (a sexy 9~10 minute timing) where well-upgraded Zerglings would otherwise be going for flanks and dominating map control, Mvp completely nullified Stephano's signature ZvT strategy. By the time Stephano had the Infestors to supplement his lings, he was already too far behind to recover.

It's hard to say what will happen in the future from just one game, but keep in mind that one game can definitely have a huge influence (off the top of my head, that time David Kim watched ThorZaIN play and thought 'ok, we're nerfing Thors'). If foreign Terrans can emulate this build and use it successfully against Stephano, then they owe Mvp their thanks.

Then again, maybe giving foreign Terrans a better chance against Stephano is the least Mvp could do for them. After all, Mvp's going to spend most of 2012 taking their money.


Being wrong hurts so bad.

After watching HerO play at MLG, DreamHack, and NASL, I was convinced. He could play his A game (or something fairly close to it) on any stage, no matter what kind of pressure he faced. Obviously, I was pretty goddamn wrong.

I'm not sure why I went against the trend I had seen over time, where simply being on the GSL stage froze the blood of players who had shown great results everywhere else. Hell, DongRaeGu can play great in the very same studio and booth, as long as they switch the GSL banner to GSTL. There's must be some ungodly amount of pressure there, which manages to turn Taeja's knees to jelly and makes HerO go Nexus first in PvP and cannon rush Zergs after the spawning pool is complete.

So the advice here is, don't go around betting that someone is too good to not break out on the GSL stage eventually. The difference between the shaky MC that went 1-9 in Proleague and confident the Boss-toss that won two GSLs is immense. So, no, just keep waiting until players actually show they have GSL nerves before we hype them up.

DRG: On his way to winning another special event, or headed to another GSL flop?

Though it was a little bit lost in the Stephano ranking business, DRG's victory over MC took him to 3-1 and 1st place in his group. Though most people expected Mvp, it wasn't that unlikely for DongRaeGu to take out IM's Terran ace and top the group. I mean, isn't he supposed to be the best ZvT player in the world or something? Mvp tried to mech DRG before at Anaheim, an DRG crushed it with great Roach maneuvering that time as well. Monday's game was pretty much par for the course.

The problem for DongRaeGu isn't the low pressure early rounds. It's that he's showing some early symptoms of an age old Starcraft malady. Starcraft history has taught us for one reason or another, there are players who just don't have much affinity with the proper, primary tournaments like GSL, OSL, MSL, while they have no problem raking in the cash at smaller, special event tournaments. The legendary Brood War player Yellow embodied this concept, winning five silver medals in proper competition, while only taking home the gold at a few 'all-star' game type competitions and invitational special events. While MKP is a more advanced case, DRG is showing symptoms as well (gold medals at LG cinema, IEM New York, and DreamHack Valencia; he must be averse to making money in chunks larger than $10,000).

This made me wonder, is the Blizzard Cup a "special event" or a proper GSL tournament? Given the fact that we gave the surprisingly weak World Championship a proper GSL treatment, one might think the Blizzard Cup should as well... But at least the World Championship had 16 players, and was played over a full month. The Blizzard cup is played in the span of less than week, and ends up being more reminiscent of "Arena of Legends III – A lot more money, thanks Blizzard" than anything we've seen that bore the GSL name.

Obviously, it will be the community consensus that give us the answer once it's all said and done. We'll watch the games, cheer for the players, and decide whether this one really had the full weight of the GSL behind it in the end. Alternatively, we could just base it on whether DRG wins or not.


MC, SuperStar

It's only fair to give everyone a mention, I guess? Well, blah, it's just that I feel incredibly weird talking about the guy lately. Every time I've seen him play recently, it's the same thing: much improved since three months ago, and much worse than nine months ago. That makes him a solid "just good" player, a position in which I'm just uncomfortable seeing him.

MC capitalized pretty well on HerO's risky Nexus first build, and he microed pretty well to defend against Stephano's Roach-Ling all-in. But he also flopped hard against Mvp, losing his crucial observer after going for a one base blink + robo build. To be fair, he looked pretty good against DRG, and you could say he played pretty evenly with one of the best Zerg players in the world in a narrow loss. But I couldn't help but think that the old MC would have won.

The MC I know is the super charismatic, super dominating, super arrogant juggernaut who won two GSLs. That, or he's the player doing so badly that I can just sleepwalk my way through a "player A is slumping blah blah write-up" without having to deal with the reality. Right now, he's definitely making an impact, just not in a way that conforms to my preferred version of ESPORTS reality. So until he reverts to one of those polar states, watching him play will always be an awkward experience.



*Actually, this is makes me think that the ESPORTS community should get a quarterly "F*** the rules" intervention clause. We all know rules are there to maintain order in an otherwise totally anarchic ESPORTS community, but sometimes well meaning rules backfire and cause more harm than good.

For instance, we could have invoked it in third quarter 2011 to say "No MLG, seeding iNcontrol into the championship bracket after he went 0-5 in the last tournament is not ESPORTS justice." Similarly, I think we can all agree that right thing to do in the Blizzard Cup was to allow Stephano to progress, and put him versus MMA in a best of eleven series in the next round.

When the two groups for the Blizzard Cup were put in front of me, my eyes directly focused on the latter of the two. No, no, not just because my favorite player, Polt, made it in with MVP's tyranny on the invitations, but also because of the match-ups we get to see in this group. Every match-up tells a little piece of a bigger story, so let's go a little bit more in-depth on the rivalries we will see in action on the second day of the Super Bowl of Starcraft 2.




This rivalry began almost six months when MMA was becoming the ace of Slayers, leading them to back-to-back GSTL titles and achieving his conquest of America by taking home the MLG Columbus title. Polt, on the other hand, was in the shadow of his more successful, more popular teammate and friend, MarineKing, who had to face MMA in the semifinals of the $100,000 GSL Super Tournament. In the end, MMA beat MarineKing and went on to face Polt with all the momentum in the world on his side.

93% of TeamLiquid thought MMA was going to win. Korea thought MMA was going to win. I even read somewhere that the penguins of Antarctica put a big bet that MMA would roll over his opposition in the final. What occurred was the polar opposite of what people predicted: Polt destroyed MMA, people were stunned, and the Son of the Emperor had been pushed to the wayside.

Their rivalry would continue only two months later, facing one another in the round of sixteen of Code S August, MMA looking for revenge for the beating he took in the finals. Again, for the second time, MMA was defeated, dropping in a 2-1 set, getting tricked in the final game of the series, with Polt declining to do his usual bionic play and opting for a mech style that he isn't known to use. MMA faltered once more and his all-time record against Polt went to 1-6, getting knocked out of GSL twice by the same player.

They haven't faced one another since August and, since their last meeting, Polt and MMA have switched spots from where they were when they faced off in the Super Tournament. MMA, who was the Hero of Code A in the Super Tournament, is now solidly placed in Code S, having won his first GSL title at Blizzcon against MVP, and reaching another quarterfinals last tournament before losing a close series to Oz. Polt, who was the Pride of Code S, has fallen to Code A for the first time in almost a year and will be needing to get out of his upcoming Up-and-Down group if he wants to get back to where he once was.

When looking at these two players, I've always considered them as equals in terms of skill. While MMA has a world class TvZ, Polt's TvP has also been considered world class. Each player's strength is also his rival's weakness; MMA having his most trouble against Protoss and Polt saying he has a tougher time with Zerg. When it comes to TvT, MMA would look like he is the better of the two in the match-up, but when the two have faced off, Polt has gotten the upper hand. The Son of the Emperor is the flashier player; preferring stylistic builds with fast and quick drops to Polt's more solid, timing attack style, using the data he's collected from watching his opponent's games to find a weakness he can exploit in the early game to give him a quick victory or a strong lead moving into the end game.

For MMA, beating Polt would finally get the Super Tournament Finals out of his mind. He's beaten MVP in a final, defeated Nestea, and taken down MC, but he still hasn't been able to defeat Polt for whatever reason. For Polt, beating MMA again would be his chance to prove that he is still one of the better Terrans in the world; he might not be having the best results, but defeating the Emperor's Son would show that he is ready to make his comeback onto the world stage.

These two will face off in the final set of the group and could be the deciding factor between one of them making the second round or being eliminated. So, who will it be? The one clad in red or the one draped in blue? Whose side will you be on when they clash for the third time?




We all know what happened. Naniwa and Nestea faced off in the finals of the MLG Global Invitational; Nestea thought he was going to roll over Naniwa but lost in three games, and then swore revenge later on in the tournament. When they faced off for a second time in the actual tournament, the God of Zerg was ready to get his revenge on the Swedish Toss, but it didn't work out as planned. For the second time in less then three days, Naniwa took down Nestea in a best-of-three series and followed it up with the Awkward Thumbs Down Heard Around The World.

Have you ever seen a better ceremony? From the thumbs down to the stylistic strut, you couldn't ask for a more humiliating defeat for Nestea. Coming in, he was considered one of the favorites, and by weekend's end, he had been beaten three times by foreigners in a best-of-three series and wasn't even able to grab a top eight spot in the final standings. Add to that he was eliminated by another foreigner, Huk, in the Ro16 of Code S, Nestea hadn't been the dominating player that we've come to known.

Nestea has been better of late, getting back into Code S by crushing FXOasd, but he'll need to play up to his old standards if he wants to get far in this tournament. Coming into the third installment of this rivalry, Naniwa has all the confidence on his side. He was able to rock Nestea back in Providence and has the chance to land a knock out blow to the Korean in his home country.

The one thing you need to know about Nestea though is that he only cares about one tournament and one tournament only: GSL. You can mess with his online or foreign tournaments, but when you come into his studio and want to challenge him for a title he has won three times, you know you'll be getting the best of him. Time and time again, we've seen Nestea put team tournaments such as the GSTL on the back burner so he could focus solely on his main goal of winning another GSL championship.

Naniwa was able to take the first two series from Nestea on foreign soil, but now it's time for the task of beating the Professor in the studio that he has made his home for the past year and a half. If Naniwa can beat Nestea and qualify out of this difficult group, it will be the statement he needs going into his first Code S season in January.




MMA-Polt and Naniwa-Nestea might be their own rivalries, so what does that leave for Leenock? Well, by looking at the players in the group, you could say that every single one is a rival to Leenock. Don't understand? Let's look at each opponent for the Prince of War one by one:

• Naniwa - Less than a month ago, these two met in the finals of the MLG National Championship at Providence. Naniwa went for the same FFE build for what seemed like a thousand games in a row, Leenock rushed him nine hundred and ninety nine times in a row, and took the series due to the fact that Naniwa didn't adapt his play style at all in the finale of the tournament. Naniwa will be looking to prove that he has more builds up his sleeve than just that one, and he'll be looking to get revenge against Leenock who was the only player to defeat him that weekend.
  
  
• MMA - The Son of Boxer came into Providence as one of the highest seeds in the tournament, looking to make it one of the best months of his life with his first GSL title under his belt. Leenock didn't like the sound of that and eliminated MMA from the tournament, beating him 2-1 and sending him home with two straight losses to him and DongRaeGu.
  
  
• Polt - Leenock and Polt were in the same group for Code S November. Polt was able to take the first game against Leenock with a brilliant timing attack on Calm Before The Storm, but was unable to beat him for a second time in the final match of the group, instead being steamrolled by Leenock's swarm and being sent to Code A for the first time in a long, long while. Polt will be looking to get his revenge for being knocked out of Code S by Leenock.
  
  
• Nestea - Do you think Nestea likes some people suggesting that Leenock might be becoming the best Zerg in the world? Hell no. Nestea will want to prove that he is still the King of Zerg in this tournament when he faces off against the young player from FXO. A win against Nestea in his best match-up on a big stage could be a gigantic step towards becoming not only the best Zerg in the world, but possibly the best player in the world as well in the future.

As you can see, Leenock is a marked man. He has eliminated three of his group mates from major tournaments in the past month and will want to prove to Nestea that he is just as good as he is. For a long time it was said that Leenock got the short end of the stick in a lot of his matches in the GSL. That he was given harder opponents than the rest and that is why it took him so long to be a force in Code S.

Now, with a MLG title and a GSL finals appearance in the past month, Leenock is no longer the unlucky player who is matched up against stronger opponents. Leenock is now the person that people feel unlucky to have drawn in their tournament group. He is one of the fastest rising stars in e-sports and this another opportunity to see how bright he can shine on the global stage.


Group B Predictions:

NesTea <Daybreak> MMA

Winner: MMA
Reason: MMA has proven that he can beat Nestea multiple times. If Nestea plays as he has the past two months, MMA should win this.

Leenock <Bel'Shir Beach> NaNiwa

Winner: Leenock
Reason: Naniwa will try to trick Leenock by going for a FFE. Sadly, somehow, someway, Leenock will see it coming, rush with roaches and end the match before it hits the ten-minute mark.

NesTea <Crossfire SE> Polt

Winner: Nestea
Reason: Nestea is really, really good on this map. Polt will need to end this early to have any chance, but Nestea will be prepared, take it to a long macro game, and end it on his terms.

MMA <Dual Sight> Leenock

Winner: MMA
Reason: Leenock's ZvT is out of this world good, and it might very well be the best in the world alongside DongRaeGu, but MMA is still the undisputed best TvZ'er in the universe. MMA beat Leenock in the group stages of last season's Code S, and Leenock beat MMA 2-1 at Providence, so this will be the rubber match. However this might end up, this is going to be a match you will want to see.

NaNiwa <Tal'Darim Altar> Polt

Winner: Polt
Reason: Have we forgotten that Polt doesn't lose against Protoss not named Killer in the GSL? If Naniwa can make it go long, he has a chance, but Polt will punish him in the early game and end it before it gets too long.

Leenock <Antiga Shipyard> NesTea

Winner: Nestea
Reason: This is the point of the group where Nestea smashes Leenock and then does a finger waggle ceremony in the both, saying, 'Not so fast, Leenock. I'm still the best Zerg in the world. Come back in a thousand years when I'm bored of winning.'

NaNiwa <Calm Before the Storm> MMA

Winner: Naniwa
Reason: I don't pick Slayers Terrans to beat Protoss. Sorry, MMA, it truly is a good predicting rule to live by.

Leenock <Shakuras Plateau> Polt

Winner: Leenock
Reason: After watching Leenock and Polt's games from last season's GSL, I just don't think Polt matches up well with Leenock at all. For Polt to win, he'll need, just like against Nestea, a perfect timing attack in the early to mid-game before Leenock can macro up, but I don't think he'll be able to before the swarm surrounds him.

NaNiwa <Antiga Shipyard> NesTea

Winner: Naniwa
Reason: I went back and forth on this one. In terms of skill, I still think Nestea is better, but sometimes in sports, some players just have another player's number, no matter how different they seem in skill. Also, if Naniwa wins, we might get another ceremony.

MMA <Bel'Shir Beach> Polt

Winner: Polt
Reason: ...Come on. Did you really think there was ever a chance I would pick MMA over Polt? Really? Come on now. Just like Naniwa and Nestea, Polt knows how to beat MMA and get in his head.

Let's see, and if you put all those predictions together, we would get...

Leenock: 2-2
Polt: 2-2
MMA: 2-2
Nestea: 2-2
Naniwa: 2-2

Oh.