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[GSL] Code-S August RO16 Preview

Forum Index > News
247 CommentsPost a Reply
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[GSL] Code-S August RO16 Preview

Text byWaxangel
Graphics bySilverskY
August 22nd, 2011 21:02 GMT

Code-S RO16 Preview


With our predictive skills coming under fire, we decided to shirk our responsibility and dumped the burden of guessing match outcomes into the hands of the masses. For the RO16, your fellow denizens of the internet will be your guides! Yes, this time all of you will have an opportunity to be wrong as well.

Three GSL polls of high repute have been gathered here:

Liquibet: TeamLiquid's very own system where users guess the winner to earn points. Highly susceptible to "voting from the heart syndrome."

GomTV Poll: A poll on GomTV's Korean website where fans can vote on who they think will win the match. No stakes.

PlayXP Toto: A virtual betting system run by the Korean community site PlayXP.com. PlayXP users can bet points on the players, while the odds on the players shift depending on how the betting goes. Odds listed below are in decimal format.



*Updated to reflect Toto betting for Wednesday games.




(T)SlayerS_MMA vs. (T)OptimusPrime.WE

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

MMA: 1.72
Optimus: 2.25

Finally, the rematch! Despite the fact that he went into the Super Tournament finals an underdog and crushed MMA 4-0, Polt is once more the underdog in this match-up. It's understandable to some degree, since Polt has been no better than mediocre as of late, while MMA's MLG Anaheim silver and recent Code-S victory over Nestea stand out immediately. In addition, Polt achieved his 4-0 victory over MMA while marine-tank was still the standard style of play, and we don't know much of Polt's mech TvT skill yet. Even so, 0-4 is 0-4, and I'm surprised to see MMA being favored by all three websites.



(T)ST_Bomber vs. (T)MVP_Keen

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Bomber: 1.25
Keen: 4.24

Good God in heaven... Yes, Bomber has an absurd TvT record (70% win rate) while Keen's is fairly poor (38%), but this is a ridiculous margin in public opinion. When you consider the content of Keen's games, and the fact that three of his eight losses were against a top class player in MVP, he's still just an average TvT player at worst. There's a large amount of variance in RTS games, and giving someone an 80% or greater chance to win is pretty insane. Not that I think that Bomber will lose, but Nestea vs Zerg is the only matchup right now that deserves that kind of margin.



(Z)oGs.Zenio vs. (T)oGs.TOP

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Zenio: 1.83
TOP: 2.08

I can't really come to a solid conclusion on the Korea-Foreign gap on this one. At least in the case of MMA/Polt, you could explain the MMA favoritism due to his exposure to the foreign fans at MLG events. When I asked Liquid`Jinro about why Koreans like Zenio better than foreigners, he responded:

"Because Zenio is a f***ing BOSS. Non-Koreans for some reason think he's 1) Bad 2) BM, but he's actually 1) Good 2) GM. Zenio BM'd Idra a lil with a ceremony after beating him, so people hate him, I guess?"

Straight from the mouth of an oGs-TL player!

Idra could not be reached for comment (okay, I didn't even try).



(T)ST_Virus vs (P)MVP_Genius

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Virus: 1.90
Genius: 2.00


A player who's made a nice comeback after a long period of sucking, versus a player who's been solidly average for the last few months. Since Genius' best matchup has been PvT in recent months, the viewer choices seems like a reasonable projection. Koreans fear 1/1/1 like the plague however, so maybe that's why they're always willing to give any Terran player the benefit of the doubt.



(Z)IMNesTea vs (T)IMMvp

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

MVP: 2.19
Nestea: 1.76


I think we have Tastosis to thank for this one. Their half-joking, half-serious insistence that Nestea is indeed, a god, has caught on with most global fans of GSL. As for Korean fans, he's still a god, too, in their eyes. Just a slightly lesser one. Taking into account Nestea's recent struggles vs TOP, sC, and MMA, I think I'll side with the Koreans here and say this one is pretty even.



(P)EG.HuK vs (T)oGs.NaDa

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Huk: 2.53
Nada: 1.58


Yikes! A blatant display of voting from the heart! The two regional fan favorites took the lion's share of the votes in their respective areas of the world. Since Nada's had a huge amount of foreign fans since the early 2000's, it's not surprising to see Huk take a smaller margin in Liquibet than Nada has on GomTV. It's a shame that the PlayXP betting isn't open yet, as the system of odds tends to lead towards more objective results.



(P)ZeNEXPuzzle vs. (T)SlayerS_Ryung

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Puzzle: 2.02
Ryung: 1.88


Not much to say here. Ryung's in beast mode, Puzzle's in beast mode, Terran has 1/1/1. Both TL and and GomTV are wrong.



(P)HongUnPrime.WE vs. (Z)ST_July

[image loading]

PlayXP Toto Odds:

Hongun: 2.1
July: 1.82


This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't watch enough GSL, and sigh.

'Sigh, 80% of TL doesn't watch enough GSL. No wonder they thought blue-flame hellions were an innovation.'




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AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
KiLL_ORdeR
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
United States1518 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-22 21:06:48
August 22 2011 21:05 GMT
#2
That's whatsup

I'm surprised that so many people are voting for MMA over Polt, honestly it's quite an even matchup.
In order to move forward, we must rid ourselves of that which holds us back. Check out my stream and give me tips! twitch.tv/intotheskyy
Harrad
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
1003 Posts
August 22 2011 21:06 GMT
#3
eghuk fighting
Superouman
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
France2195 Posts
August 22 2011 21:06 GMT
#4
Am i that very tired or do i see the article written two times?
Search "[SO]" on B.net to find all my maps ||| Cloud Kingdom / Turbo Cruise '84 / Bone Temple / Eternal Empire / Zen / Purity and Industry / Golden Wall / Fortitude / Beckett Industries / Waterfall
cLemenZa
Profile Joined November 2010
England66 Posts
August 22 2011 21:07 GMT
#5
On August 23 2011 06:06 Superouman wrote:
Am i that very tired or do i see the article written two times?


Reading this when high is not good for my brain.
'The sun never sets on the British Empire,' 1919
swim224
Profile Joined May 2010
Botswana368 Posts
August 22 2011 21:08 GMT
#6
Um... the post is written twice, thanks for all the polls though
....unless Taeja suddenly parachutes into the studio with explosions behind him and lands on a skateboard which he jumps over the booth before jumping in. If that happened it would be so sweet it would be physically impossible for them to lose. - Haydin
swim224
Profile Joined May 2010
Botswana368 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-22 21:08:38
August 22 2011 21:08 GMT
#7
Srry, double post
....unless Taeja suddenly parachutes into the studio with explosions behind him and lands on a skateboard which he jumps over the booth before jumping in. If that happened it would be so sweet it would be physically impossible for them to lose. - Haydin
SafeAsCheese
Profile Joined June 2011
United States4924 Posts
August 22 2011 21:08 GMT
#8
I can't believe so many people are voting NesTea to beat MVP

Did they not watch him barely pass his Ro32 matches?
CoMMoDuS
Profile Joined February 2010
Germany507 Posts
August 22 2011 21:09 GMT
#9
Wow, people forget about gsl finals fast, accoding to the mma-polt stats.
There is no unemployment amongst overlords-Artosis
camconnor
Profile Joined April 2011
31 Posts
August 22 2011 21:09 GMT
#10
It's really interesting seeing the differences in opinions between regions. I like this alot.
Thanks
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3621 Posts
August 22 2011 21:09 GMT
#11
On August 23 2011 06:06 Superouman wrote:
Am i that very tired or do i see the article written two times?


I'm apparently that tired too, except I'm pretty sure I'm not tired.
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
sebsejr
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
213 Posts
August 22 2011 21:09 GMT
#12
sick writeup! lol'ed in the end !!!
hTRen
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada55 Posts
August 22 2011 21:09 GMT
#13
On August 23 2011 06:06 Superouman wrote:
Am i that very tired or do i see the article written two times?


I just pulled an all nighter working and I see it twice so maybe we're both hallucinating.
renaissanceMAN
Profile Joined March 2011
United States1840 Posts
August 22 2011 21:10 GMT
#14
no offense, but I'd rather read an article that isnt full of pictures of statistics

it was an ok read but~
On August 15 2013 03:43 Waxangel wrote: no amount of money can replace the enjoyment of being mean to people on the internet
Darathor
Profile Joined February 2011
United States327 Posts
August 22 2011 21:10 GMT
#15
The article is on the post twice

But hmm, not sure if I like this new format. Instead of giving out their opinion on who will win directly, they just say that a bunch of people on liquibet are wrong I voted for July, not necessarily because I think he will win, but I because I oh so sincerely hope he will. I know it says in the article that liquibets are often susceptible to the heart-syndrome, but that's really the only one I voted with the heart on. I was 50/50 on Nestea/MVP but chose Nestea on a coin-flip, and on HuK/NaDa I voted for HuK, but regretted voting as fast as I did.
TheNessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4158 Posts
August 22 2011 21:11 GMT
#16
hahah "dumped the burden of guessing match outcomes into the hands of the masses"

"Not much to say here. Ryung's in beast mode, Puzzle's in beast mode, Terran has 1/1/1. Both TL and and GomTV are wrong."
~~! youtube.com/xmungam1 !~~
HyruleanTubist
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States189 Posts
August 22 2011 21:13 GMT
#17
Yeah, there's a double post within a single post lol. Thanks for the charts, though! The regional trends are pretty interesting, too bad PlayXP didn't have stats for the later matches yet.
knL
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Germany400 Posts
August 22 2011 21:14 GMT
#18
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.


I autovoted july ... after 1 day i thought... hm maybe not your best choice
Femari
Profile Joined June 2011
United States2900 Posts
August 22 2011 21:15 GMT
#19
On August 23 2011 06:05 KiLL_ORdeR wrote:
That's whatsup

I'm surprised that so many people are voting for MMA over Polt, honestly it's quite an even matchup.

Well MMA has been dominant recently while Polt hasn't and this time Polt doesn't have massive amounts of TvT replays from MMA and help from MKP playing MMA to back him up like last time.

Polt is really really good, but he also had a ton going for him in the Super Tournament finals against MMA.

Either way this will go 3 games.

Also lol HongUn will win. And MVP too. MVP has beaten Nestea before and he's better than MMA.
Mvp | BoxeR | MarineKing | MC | viOlet | Scarlett | Flash | Bisu | XellOs | Sea | Fantasy | By.Sun
ProxyKnoxy
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom2576 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-08-22 21:17:35
August 22 2011 21:15 GMT
#20
Haha I think in terms of the Liquibets some people just vote for the bigger name or their personal favourite instead of considering recent performances results Or at least they have to be because the polls are just ridiculous xD

And also MVP will beat Nestea fairly easily in my opinion (2:0 or not sure if its bo5. If bo5 then 3:1). I'd love to be proven wrong though.

"Zealot try give mariners high five. Mariners not like high five and try hide and shoot zealot"
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