With our predictive skills coming under fire, we decided to shirk our responsibility and dumped the burden of guessing match outcomes into the hands of the masses. For the RO16, your fellow denizens of the internet will be your guides! Yes, this time all of you will have an opportunity to be wrong as well.
Three GSL polls of high repute have been gathered here:
Liquibet: TeamLiquid's very own system where users guess the winner to earn points. Highly susceptible to "voting from the heart syndrome."
GomTV Poll: A poll on GomTV's Korean website where fans can vote on who they think will win the match. No stakes.
PlayXP Toto: A virtual betting system run by the Korean community site PlayXP.com. PlayXP users can bet points on the players, while the odds on the players shift depending on how the betting goes. Odds listed below are in decimal format.
*Updated to reflect Toto betting for Wednesday games.
Finally, the rematch! Despite the fact that he went into the Super Tournament finals an underdog and crushed MMA 4-0, Polt is once more the underdog in this match-up. It's understandable to some degree, since Polt has been no better than mediocre as of late, while MMA's MLG Anaheim silver and recent Code-S victory over Nestea stand out immediately. In addition, Polt achieved his 4-0 victory over MMA while marine-tank was still the standard style of play, and we don't know much of Polt's mech TvT skill yet. Even so, 0-4 is 0-4, and I'm surprised to see MMA being favored by all three websites.
Good God in heaven... Yes, Bomber has an absurd TvT record (70% win rate) while Keen's is fairly poor (38%), but this is a ridiculous margin in public opinion. When you consider the content of Keen's games, and the fact that three of his eight losses were against a top class player in MVP, he's still just an average TvT player at worst. There's a large amount of variance in RTS games, and giving someone an 80% or greater chance to win is pretty insane. Not that I think that Bomber will lose, but Nestea vs Zerg is the only matchup right now that deserves that kind of margin.
I can't really come to a solid conclusion on the Korea-Foreign gap on this one. At least in the case of MMA/Polt, you could explain the MMA favoritism due to his exposure to the foreign fans at MLG events. When I asked Liquid`Jinro about why Koreans like Zenio better than foreigners, he responded:
"Because Zenio is a f***ing BOSS. Non-Koreans for some reason think he's 1) Bad 2) BM, but he's actually 1) Good 2) GM. Zenio BM'd Idra a lil with a ceremony after beating him, so people hate him, I guess?"
Straight from the mouth of an oGs-TL player!
Idra could not be reached for comment (okay, I didn't even try).
A player who's made a nice comeback after a long period of sucking, versus a player who's been solidly average for the last few months. Since Genius' best matchup has been PvT in recent months, the viewer choices seems like a reasonable projection. Koreans fear 1/1/1 like the plague however, so maybe that's why they're always willing to give any Terran player the benefit of the doubt.
I think we have Tastosis to thank for this one. Their half-joking, half-serious insistence that Nestea is indeed, a god, has caught on with most global fans of GSL. As for Korean fans, he's still a god, too, in their eyes. Just a slightly lesser one. Taking into account Nestea's recent struggles vs TOP, sC, and MMA, I think I'll side with the Koreans here and say this one is pretty even.
Yikes! A blatant display of voting from the heart! The two regional fan favorites took the lion's share of the votes in their respective areas of the world. Since Nada's had a huge amount of foreign fans since the early 2000's, it's not surprising to see Huk take a smaller margin in Liquibet than Nada has on GomTV. It's a shame that the PlayXP betting isn't open yet, as the system of odds tends to lead towards more objective results.
But hmm, not sure if I like this new format. Instead of giving out their opinion on who will win directly, they just say that a bunch of people on liquibet are wrong I voted for July, not necessarily because I think he will win, but I because I oh so sincerely hope he will. I know it says in the article that liquibets are often susceptible to the heart-syndrome, but that's really the only one I voted with the heart on. I was 50/50 on Nestea/MVP but chose Nestea on a coin-flip, and on HuK/NaDa I voted for HuK, but regretted voting as fast as I did.
Yeah, there's a double post within a single post lol. Thanks for the charts, though! The regional trends are pretty interesting, too bad PlayXP didn't have stats for the later matches yet.
On August 23 2011 06:05 KiLL_ORdeR wrote: That's whatsup
I'm surprised that so many people are voting for MMA over Polt, honestly it's quite an even matchup.
Well MMA has been dominant recently while Polt hasn't and this time Polt doesn't have massive amounts of TvT replays from MMA and help from MKP playing MMA to back him up like last time.
Polt is really really good, but he also had a ton going for him in the Super Tournament finals against MMA.
Either way this will go 3 games.
Also lol HongUn will win. And MVP too. MVP has beaten Nestea before and he's better than MMA.
Haha I think in terms of the Liquibets some people just vote for the bigger name or their personal favourite instead of considering recent performances results Or at least they have to be because the polls are just ridiculous xD
And also MVP will beat Nestea fairly easily in my opinion (2:0 or not sure if its bo5. If bo5 then 3:1). I'd love to be proven wrong though.
On August 23 2011 06:10 renaissanceMAN wrote: no offense, but I'd rather read an article that isnt full of pictures of statistics
it was an ok read but~
Thanks, I'm sure they only wrote this for you..
I enjoyed the read. Seeing how the Koreans feel about certain matchups is interesting. & gosh damn LOL at MVP vs Nestea liquibet. Just, HASHAHAH. Really? Mvp is like 10-2 or something silly against Nestea. They practice together and NesTea's ZvT has looked less than stellar super recently. I'd give MVP the edge because of this any day. Though, not by much.
Also, Puzzle vs Ryung. I agree that they're both besting, but the added threat of 1/1/1 and the difficulty that Protoss has at this stage of stopping such builds. Gah, it's not looking good for my hero
On August 23 2011 06:17 rapidtransit247 wrote: How is NesTea going to beat MVP's 1/1/1? I must admit I want to see that.
Also, I'm all for double posting when it means 2 great posts
Urm I thought 1/1/1 was for protoss..... Anyways really TL you think that HongUn is worse than july by that large of a margin? Some people missed a whole season of GSL.
On August 23 2011 06:17 rapidtransit247 wrote: How is NesTea going to beat MVP's 1/1/1? I must admit I want to see that.
Also, I'm all for double posting when it means 2 great posts
Urm I thought 1/1/1 was for protoss..... Anyways really TL you think that HongUn is worse than july by that large of a margin? Some people missed a whole season of GSL.
as for me i voted with my heart. who wants this hongun to move on? not many and july played pretty decent in groupstage
I voted polt MMA is kinda overrated in the foreigner community due to his win at MLG. Polt did 3-0 MMA in the finals but imo it's an even matchup. It can go either way but I hope and think that Polt will take it!
About Nestea vs MVP that's a must see match.... It's gonna be a 2-1 game and I think Nestea is gonna take it. MVP plays a very methodical TvZ. Not that many drops but overall good macro and I think that it will suite Nestea perfectly!
If you saw MMA vs Nestea then you saw that Nestea got owned by the constant pressure... Even though it was a Bo1 you definently saw some holes in Nesteas play!
Yeah I only vote with my heart until I get used to the person who keeps losing me LB points, then I vote the other way and the person I usually vote for randomly wins that time. LB hates me.
On August 23 2011 06:25 JoeAWESOME wrote: I voted polt MMA is kinda overrated in the foreigner community due to his win at MLG. Polt did 3-0 MMA in the finals but imo it's an even matchup. It can go either way but I hope and think that Polt will take it!
About Nestea vs MVP that's a must see match.... It's gonna be a 2-1 game and I think Nestea is gonna take it. MVP plays a very methodical TvZ. Not that many drops but overall good macro and I think that it will suite Nestea perfectly!
If you saw MMA vs Nestea then you saw that Nestea got owned by the constant pressure... Even though it was a Bo1 you definently saw some holes in Nesteas play!
4-0, polt over MMA in the gsl supertournament finals
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.
July diasected Genius in group stages, one sided nub-bashing. Can you say Houng is better then genius?
I cannt
Well, he has had more consistent results than Genius.. I guess it's up in the air if you ask me. Can't be sold either way.
Plus this is TL and we all love July. Most people would rather give the player they like most their vote when you dont have a very clear favorite. And since HongUn doesnt really have a great fan base, what do you expect?
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.
July diasected Genius in group stages, one sided nub-bashing. Can you say Houng is better then genius?
I cannt
Did you watch the game... July cheesed Genius and won. There was no skill involved LOL. Seriously, a diamond leaguer could have done that, but yea Genius is much better than Hongun
I will admit to voting for who I want to win most of the time, rather than who I think will win. There are exceptions though, even if I wanted Keen to win I still would have voted for Bomber.
But yeah, I voted for Nada and July, whether or not they have the best chance.
Well of course I vote with my heart. Not like I stand to win anything great, so why not? I mean I just feel like a whore most of the time if I pick against the people I really like, even if they have no chance in hell.
Lol, the MMA vs Polt and Bomber vs Keen margins are hilarious
By the way. Am I the only one who is utterly despaired by the fact that I count... 3 zergs, 4 protoss and 9 terrans? Sure TvT is fun to watch and all but not THAT fun... At least only one of the nonterran matchups is a ZvP soo at least we'll have a chance to see some non terrans in the round of 8... But on the other hand we might also end up seeing 7 terrans and one nonterran... And a top 4 of pure terran. Oh joy.
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.
July diasected Genius in group stages, one sided nub-bashing. Can you say Houng is better then genius?
I cannt
Did you watch the game... July cheesed Genius and won. There was no skill involved LOL. Seriously, a diamond leaguer could have done that, but yea Genius is much better than Hongun
As much as I hate to admit it, a win by a cheese is still a win. If Genious wasnt good enough to hold a zerg cheese, he didnt deserve the win, July did. And remember, July is the God of War.
Nestea v MVP is my most anticipated match of the year. I really want to see whether Nestea has come up with something to combat the abusive two factory style we've seen from Terran. If anyone can figure it out it's him
I don't know about Nestea vs MVP Every time Nestea has been eliminated from a Korean Tournament it has been by Terran, with 2 of those losses coming from MVP. Head to head he is 1-6 to MVP. I don't see how he is favored in Korean polls.
Hongun is probably one of the more inconsistent players in GSL, along with July. I've seen some incredible games from Hongun but also some truly awful ones in addition to the greatness. July's style tends to lend itself to weirder games as he is so super aggressive. I picked July, I highly doubt Hongun can take him down in a BoX but will be pleasantly surprised if he does (Since I'm Toss, I always hope for my Toss brethren :D)
HongUn has been in good form lately and July has not, I'd be interested to the the toto betting for that one, shame its not up. Although aybe its not that 80% don't watch the GSL though and instead the fact that Artosis doesn't give HongUn any credit and is prone to hyping Zerg players, who have had some success, up.
hongun and july series is probably more susceptible to a 'voting from the heart' issue more than people not watching gsl i would definitely vote from the heart for july.
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.
July diasected Genius in group stages, one sided nub-bashing. Can you say Houng is better then genius?
I cannt
Did you watch the game... July cheesed Genius and won. There was no skill involved LOL. Seriously, a diamond leaguer could have done that, but yea Genius is much better than Hongun
Horse shit.
Call it what you want but don't say a diamond could beat Genius. That's such a pea-brained shitty thing to say.
A diamond player can execute any given build order of a pro in SC2 but not at a pro-perfection level.
I just think GSL should make MVP vs. Nestea a Bo7.
Don't call it the finals (cause being called a Code S finals makes it an auto-bad series). They don't hav to explain reasoning as to why a single Ro16 match is Bo7 when the rest are Bo3. Just act like its normally a Bo7.
I can't see Hongun really losing vs July. July tends not to play Macro games and Hongun has a frankly ridiculous number of 1 and 2 base plays he can use really well + Hongun is doing really well recently. i.e Ro4 (8?) last season and a 3-kill vs Slayers.
On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote: Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems
Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust).
Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
surprised to see any of the P players favored with as much panic i read about the 1/1/1 all in. I haven't been able to play in a few weeks so i dont really know too much about playing against it though.
On August 23 2011 06:10 renaissanceMAN wrote: no offense, but I'd rather read an article that isnt full of pictures of statistics
it was an ok read but~
Thanks, I'm sure they only wrote this for you..
he was just expressing his opinion, not sure why you have to be so rude lol
Thanks for your clear and level-headed approach to the argument =) The fact that so many people here took the opposing argument just proves the OP's original comment.
Alright... and you saying 80% of TL community doesn't watch the GSL because they voted for July is the same as saying 50% of the people at Gom.TV don't watch the GSL either.
I would have voted for HuK if he was still Liquid`HuK.. And NaDa will probably beat him anyways.. The 1/1/1 is so powerful especially when you have the likes of NaDa executing it. Also, HuK has been pretty shitty his last tournament.. Losing the group stages isn't Code S quality play.
On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote: Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems
Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust).
Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
not real money, but people are pretty serious about their toto points :o
One small pet peeve is that the OP mentions the community giving someone a >80% chance of winning, which isn't true. If 80% of voters pick one player as their choice to win, it doesn't mean that the community thinks that player has an 80% chance to win. It just means that 80% of the community thinks the player has a >50% chance to win (or is voting with their heart).
The vote could be 95% to 5%, but it might just mean that 95% of people think Bomber has a 51% chance of winning, in an extreme example.
Anyways, sorry for the anal sidetrack and thanks again for the post! Maybe we can even see the remaining Toto numbers when they're available.
On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote: Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems
Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust).
Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
Gambling is actually illegal in Korea, the toto bets use points as imaginary money.
On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote: Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems
Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust).
Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
not real money, but people are pretty serious about their toto points :o
Aww man, I thought it was proper gambling haha. Now I feel like an idiot....
High stakes korean Starcraft gambling would be pretty cool though :D
On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote: Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems
Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust).
Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
not real money, but people are pretty serious about their toto points :o
Aww man, I thought it was proper gambling haha. Now I feel like an idiot....
High stakes korean Starcraft gambling would be pretty cool though :D
After a long and philosophical discussion with a Unicorn named Alabanza, I was told that with enough long, hard work, and countless hours of studying, I could find a magical secret within the depths of GSL Code S August unbeknownst to all except those concerned and an evil wizard named GomTV. After examining and searching through TL at great lengths, I think I have discovered that secret:
Polt and Hongun got my vote! I also went for Virus, predicting an upset. Only time I went with TL when TL went opposite of GOM is with Huk. Is Nada still studying or is he playing full time?
Great OP! I know that my Liquibet on MMA over Polt is definitely heart over mind. I just want to see the guy win everything ever; so hardworking and genuinely likable. I'd love to see him really take up the mantle of SC2's own version of BW BoxeR.
I voted for July for the upset against HongUn lol, I actually think believe HongUn's going to win >.>
But I gave up on going for any system in my liquibets since I've seen so many upsets! Next Season I'm going to flip a coin for every liquibet and see how that goes lol
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =)
On August 23 2011 08:01 Sarang wrote: I disagree with the analysis of Bomber vs. Keen.
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =)
Toto's settled at like 1:4 odds for Keen to win T_T
I just realized that if July, Nada, and Polt all lose their round of 16 match, then MC can maintain his spot as number 3 in the GSL rankings. This has me conflicted.
Edit: Nada and July need to win to overtake MC, while Polt needs at least 2nd place.
On August 23 2011 08:01 Sarang wrote: I disagree with the analysis of Bomber vs. Keen.
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =)
Toto's settled at like 1:4 odds for Keen to win T_T
I don't know much anything about betting, but that seems pretty reasonable I think. =P
Bomber's only TvT series loss in 7 months (according to TLPD) was the collapse against Byun last GSL. Now let's never speak of that series again.
If we count GSTL losses in TvT, his last loss was to Ryung, 5 months ago.
On August 23 2011 08:14 starstorm wrote: Poor Polt, going to have to win 10 GSLs before people give him credit for his skill.
Polt IS good, but if you remember the super tournament, MMA sort of defeated himself in some games. Other games were weird rush builds by Polt (looked like a TvP at times). MMA has had more impressive wins recently..and even overall, has crushed in the team league a number of times.
very nice preview, can't wait for the matches! i think Zenio's really good, but TOP is better imo. i'm thinking Virus will edge out Genius, because Genius is inconsistent, and Virus is consistently decent and I think MVP will manhandle NesTea. NesTea is very reactionary, and I think Mvp's slow careful pulling apart style TvZ will beat him. HuK will be somewhat tired after IEM, and didn't perform too well there, so I think NaDa's got it. besides, theres always 1/1/1 if all else fails :p. and for the others i agree with LB's predictions
At first I was furious that Nestea was overwhelmingly underfavored in the liquibet. Then I read the color coding instead of assuming it followed the order of names ^^ Phew.
On August 23 2011 08:14 starstorm wrote: Poor Polt, going to have to win 10 GSLs before people give him credit for his skill.
Polt IS good, but if you remember the super tournament, MMA sort of defeated himself in some games. Other games were weird rush builds by Polt (looked like a TvP at times). MMA has had more impressive wins recently..and even overall, has crushed in the team league a number of times.
Polt reminds me of Thorzain a bit. With preparation, he's absolutely beastly. Without it, he's still good but doesn't quite have that "oomph" it takes to impress people.
MMA, meanwhile, has a flashy style and has shown himself able to destroy people even without extensive preparation; he doesn't so much "snipe" people as just beat them. He's sort of like DRG (or DRG is like him) in that regard, which is really what makes both him and DRG good aces for their teams.
On August 23 2011 06:10 renaissanceMAN wrote: no offense, but I'd rather read an article that isnt full of pictures of statistics
it was an ok read but~
Thanks, I'm sure they only wrote this for you..
he was just expressing his opinion, not sure why you have to be so rude lol
You have to look at more than just the cover of the book. A third of July's ZvP's are against MC, and at least he won some of those. The only actual good Zerg player that HungUn has played was Nestea, and HungUn lost 0-3.
Not even stats, but just looking at each of their games, July's ZvP seems more solid. We'll see though.
The polls look right but saying Polt's latest games have been mediocre is just plain wrong (unless you've been watching those Noblesse games, which were overall bleh). He's impressed me a lot more than MMA has in the TvT department.
Nice interesting way of going at this article. I liked the change up in pace and style and found it fascinating to see the numbers broken down. Thanks!
ps I admit I sometimes vote from the heart on liquibet and I know....its ruining esports
One thing about Liquibet; it's been going on for a while, and most of us have no chance in hell of winning. I've long since lost any hope of a decent finish, so fuck objectivity, I'm voting for NaDa.
It wouldn't surprise me if there were quite a few other people who've given up on trying and just resorted to fanboy votes as well.
80% of people picking July does not mean that people on average think that July has an 80% chance of winning. People seem to conflate these two. I picked July, but think it's rather close. Bomber should have 100% of people picking him, because he's just more likely to win, not because he's certain to win.
On August 23 2011 09:58 Kanil wrote: One thing about Liquibet; it's been going on for a while, and most of us have no chance in hell of winning. I've long since lost any hope of a decent finish, so fuck objectivity, I'm voting for NaDa.
It wouldn't surprise me if there were quite a few other people who've given up on trying and just resorted to fanboy votes as well.
Ever since I joined TL, I've just been fanboy voting, blind faith ftw!
I just vote for the better player, and WHO should win. People are like Leenock is good in ZvT and Marineking is barely winning, but I voted Marineking still.
Voted: Genius - just because he favors PvT the most, virus lost to Inca in May as well. There's always 4 gate. TOP - this was 50/50 for me but I like TOP more and he's been more consistent and Zenio seems like he can't make it past Ro16. Bomber - Ok, its TvT and its Bomber, bomber almost makes MVP look like a noobie in this match-up. MMA - tip top TvTer and if Noblesse didn't screw up polt probably wouldn't of advanced, I cheered for polt in the Super Tournament but I think MMA is superior now, (polt never makes it past Ro16) July - HongUn's vs Zerg games are always sloppy! I honestly don't know how he advances so far each time, oh wait I know its because he gets supernova in his group each GSL group stage. Puzzle - Ryung is probably the SlayerS terran most likely to 1/1/1 in a game, Puzzle used to stream on TL for over 20 hours a day it seemed like, hard work does pay off. I dunno what's up with his HT control vs emp these days though. NADA - Nada is Nada and I'm Bias, no just kidding they know each others style real well, and I think Nada can adapt more quickly. MVP - This guy makes Nestea look Mortal, and to top it off he's Nestea's weakest match-up and the only opponent Nestea has a losing record to (Terran Wise)
On August 23 2011 06:02 Waxangel wrote: This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't watch enough GSL, and sigh.
'Sigh, 80% of TL doesn't watch enough GSL. No wonder they thought blue-flame hellions were an innovation.'
Well, sometimes you win, and sometimes you lose to HongUn. The way of the world.
Look, I know it looks like HongUn is way better than July right now. And he probably is. But do *not* put it past him to HongUn shit up: that is, beat MC and/or lose to July.
lol all this shows is that the majority of people that vote on Liquibets vote on who they'd rather win versus who they think will actually win. The GOMTV poll is much closer to how the odds should actually look.
Especially in regards to 3 match ups. Hongun vs July, Nada vs Huk and Nestea vs MVP.
The liquibet odds are so off regarding these three its actually quite humorous.
On August 23 2011 06:08 SafeAsCheese wrote: I can't believe so many people are voting NesTea to beat MVP
Did they not watch him barely pass his Ro32 matches?
many of us vote for our favorite in close matches Id assume and Nestea has won the hearts of almost all foreigners. MVP has won the arteries of a few
Which is a shame because MVP is somewhat overshadowed or accompanied by other good T's. Whereas NesTea stands alone on his throne. I guess Liquibet is like 60/40 heart/brain.
Re: Bomber vs Keen Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory.
Puzzle is total G status! I think Gomtv and TL are correct sir!
I offered up some fruit and money to my Puzzle shrine so I think his holiness will bless all Protoss with an awesome way of stuffing the 1-1-1. Kind of like the way he did against asdfOu in the GSTL.
I really liked getting to see the breakdown of the 3 big polls. It'll be exciting to see who's right! =D
I voted for HuK, even though there is a good chance that he will not win. But whenever I see a foreigner in GSL, it's an auto-vote. I can't help it, and I'm sure I'm not alone in this regard.
On August 23 2011 11:33 DrShaiHulud wrote: Re: Bomber vs Keen Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory.
Yes. This. These 1:1 payout polls don't gauge the community's collective certainty of victory. All it gauges is the per-cent of the community that is more than 50% certain that Bomber will win the match. Which is apparently 96.5% of people in the community. 96.5 per-cent of people believing Bomber has a superior TvT to Keen isn't insane. Given that Bomber's amazing at capitalizing on mistakes, and Elly the ESPORTS Elephant Giovanni the GSL Grizzly reminds us of how many mistakes are made... it's a lot less 'WTF' than it's being made out to be.
Still, an interesting, unique write-up. I like it. TOTOs are really useful for judging to community's collective certainty. Well, the Korean community. Still, incomplete info is better than no info.
I'm more concerned that Bomber has 75% of toto bets, and it took until the line reached like -400 for him for votes to start evening out.... -400 is like, bonjwa line :/
'Sigh, 80% of TL doesn't watch enough GSL. No wonder they thought blue-flame hellions were an innovation.'
Hahaha, so true. I still remember how shocked some people were at all the BFH usage in TvT especially at MLG when anyone watching GSL mech was nothing too new on TvT.
Wow, I know top is pretty good, but how could you vote against Zenio with the absolutely dominant TvZ he pulled off in groups stage. He had the safe patient "always have more stuff than your opponent" Nestea style with Losira like creep spread, if he keeps playing like that he's going far.
the results should reflect how close the games are, but it makes me feel stupid for voting nestea... even though he does have the better chance, it's just not that significantly skewed in his favor.
anyways, gogo Nestea!
and i hope puzzle wins but i can't imagine it happening glgl
Regarding people thinking that Polt was the better player back when he won the supertournament, he wasn't, he pulled out some cheesey metagame bullshit builds that will never work on anyone ever again, so don't expect anything to have changed, aside from MMA studying the replays and figuring out exactly how to make his builds cheeseproof.
With the new mech in TvT (which is 90% of what happens on the korean server, both players mech). I would expect MMA to win, whilst polt does deserve a good 30% chance, I still don't see it happening in a best of 3
On August 23 2011 11:33 DrShaiHulud wrote: Re: Bomber vs Keen Since liquibet gives out a 1:1 payout (someone please correct me if this isn't the case) in points for all predictions, we should not expect the liquibet % to generally correspond to well-calibrated probabilities (even if we assume the joy of being correct is enough incentive to bet seriously). So if the entire community believes that Bomber has EXACTLY a 60% chance of winning or something then we would expect 100% of liquibetors to pick Bomber, even if we only think that Bomber has a 60% probability of victory.
Yeah people really don't understand these polls. It's not people think Nestea has a 70% chance of winning. It's 70% of people think Nestea has > 50% of winning. If people got to vote on Nestea's chances I would bet the majority of the votes would hover round 50-55%.
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't actually watch GSL, and sigh.
I autovoted july ... after 1 day i thought... hm maybe not your best choice
TL predicted that July will go out 0-2 in the Ro32 and look how wrong they were . I have faith in July that even thought he is the underdog he will win .
Using Pinnacle's odds (you know, where people can bet for real money) would be much more scientific than any of the sources the OP used. Fairly sure that they'll be more accurate than those influenced by people who'll autovote against all Protoss to get free points
On August 23 2011 06:05 KiLL_ORdeR wrote: That's whatsup
I'm surprised that so many people are voting for MMA over Polt, honestly it's quite an even matchup.
Im not surprised. Polt's wins in the super tournament against MMA were kinda cheesy when MMA was still doing very greedy expands. Even before the finals Polt showed that his mechanics and decision making in the mid to lategame were sup-par, whereas MMA has repeatedly shown that he probably has some of the best mid-game in the world.
Every time Polt plays a tvt and his random early stim semi-allin doesn't work, he completely falls apart and looks like a code-b terran. I would not be surprised to see Polt get absolutely rolled if MMA doesn't die to some early stimmed marauders, and you know MMA will be preparing for just that.
I'd say MMA has a 95% chance of winning if it goes past early game.
On August 23 2011 08:11 CuSToM wrote: Lol what has July done recently to make 80% of Team Liquid pick him over someone who was just in the final 4?
Do people hate HongUn that much for whatever reason or does nobody pay attention?
Noone likes the guy who keeps saying he's going to retire because of his wrists but then uses blink stalkers all day every day.
That and he doesn't stand out at all compared to like MVP, NesTea or MC.
sigh. "Noone likes the guy who keeps saying he's going to retire because of his wrists but then uses blink stalkers all day every day" this guy would deserve a bitchslap for this sentence. in interviews when they ask about his wrist he answers, oh how obnoxious of hongun. he's probably on some pain meds and despite his wrist hurting he still plays and uses one of protoss' best units, OH MY GOD HOW CAN HE DO THAT.
seriously this guy must think that that evil, bad Flash should stop having 400 apm because his wrists hurt too right?think for one fucking second before writing something that stupid. Hongun's wrist condition is really bad and it's not unlikeable of him, it's rather admirable that he keeps playing and owning some shit.
and he's probably the most consistent player in gsls (with open seasons), even more than nada, plus he has some funky builds that i really like. people should stop giving him shit. he's not MVP or Nestea caliber that's true, and it's true for 25 other code s players, but somehow people talk shit mostly about hongun. I personally love the guy and hope he destroys July
Polt said in super tournament that MMA'll never be in code S. Has it haunted MMA since then ( althought MMA is in code S now) ? oh MMA lost to Polt, so annoying !!!
Idk why so many people are discounting TOP, he's had a pretty good return so far and has proven himself as a contender. Yeah, Zenio is really good, but I think this is TOP's chance to prove people wrong.
Not that I think that Bomber will lose, but Nestea vs Zerg is the only matchup right now that deserves that kind of margin.
This statement. So prophetic. All I can say that mirror match-ups are very very volatile and so far only Nestea can consistently have a higher than expected winning rate in a mirror match-up.
Zenio is not that good, the only thing i remember about him is that he beat idra with overseer in GSL Open. After that all i know about him is constantly losing (especial in ZvT). TOP will definitely crush Zenio.
Not sure why hongun gets so much credit. I've watched every gsl since s2 and I think july will win for sure.
Also its a shame but mvp is nestea's kryptonite. Best tvz in the world arguably (MMA pretty close) vs nestea's weakest mu. Mvp 2:0. Tvz is so exhausting at a high level and is easily zergs hardest matchup.
The thing that distinguishes MMA and map's tvz from other terran is they still abuse the robustness of marines while most other terrans play tank-heavy. They get 3/3 bio upgrades very quickly and can really abuse the zergs multitasking with drops while taking better position until the Zerg is forced into an engagement they don't want to make.
I must say that I disagree with every single TL bet. This is ridiculous that people just think someone will win because of fan favoritism. The writer and the average team liquid user are clearly naive and biased.
On August 24 2011 00:34 Aeal wrote: I must say that I disagree with every single TL bet. This is ridiculous that people just think someone will win because of fan favoritism. The writer and the average team liquid user are clearly naive and biased.
Oh my. If the matchup is a close one and essentially a tossup, most fans will pick the player that they like more (OH MY GOSH HOW RIDICULOUS). The writer is stating his two cents while analyzing the reasons for the difference or similarities between polls.
...I don't see how it is surprising at all that 80% voted for Julyzerg over Hongun...
With both of their styles in PvZ, it's literally like comparing Nestea vs Inca, and we know how that went. I watch GSL all the time, and I'd be really damn surprised if Hongun has a good showing here.
Awesome write-up, thanks. I simply cannot wait to watch this, but sadly I do not think that I will be able to since I have school during the broadcasts. I just hope that the finals at least will be on a weekend, I will go and have a check now :D GSL is spectacular!
On August 24 2011 01:00 braheem wrote: ...I don't see how it is surprising at all that 80% voted for Julyzerg over Hongun...
With both of their styles in PvZ, it's literally like comparing Nestea vs Inca, and we know how that went. I watch GSL all the time, and I'd be really damn surprised if Hongun has a good showing here.
Well, Hungun has way more to show for himself in SC2 then July ever will.
On August 24 2011 01:00 braheem wrote: ...I don't see how it is surprising at all that 80% voted for Julyzerg over Hongun...
With both of their styles in PvZ, it's literally like comparing Nestea vs Inca, and we know how that went. I watch GSL all the time, and I'd be really damn surprised if Hongun has a good showing here.
Well, Hungun has way more to show for himself in SC2 then July ever will.
Really now? Like what? LOL
What the heck are you smoking... July isn't some scrub, i don't know why people tend to think that, and Hongun has nothing notable over July under his belt...
I don't think you have a clue as to who you're talking about... might've confused him with someone else (MC maybe?).. do u watch GSL>?
Loved the statistics, but the OP has a bit of a misunderstanding as far as Bomber vs Keen is concerned.
There's a large amount of variance in RTS games, and giving someone an 80% or greater chance to win is pretty insane.
The statistic doesn't show that people are giving Bomber a 96% chance to win, it means that 96% of people are giving Bomber a 51% or greater chance to win.
Big difference.
edit: aaand I shouldn't have just skimmed the thread before posting - DrShaiHulud already pointed it out. Good job!
On August 23 2011 07:50 mbr2321 wrote: After a long and philosophical discussion with a Unicorn named Alabanza, I was told that with enough long, hard work, and countless hours of studying, I could find a magical secret within the depths of GSL Code S August unbeknownst to all except those concerned and an evil wizard named GomTV. After examining and searching through TL at great lengths, I think I have discovered that secret:
MMA stays in Code S though, which means he achieved his goal right? + Show Spoiler +
i feel like kinda threw the 3rd game by trying to go bio on a huge macro map like Tal'Darim Altar-- if he played mech i think it would've been a lot closer than what ended up happening... there's just no way bio can take on the kind of tank count Polt had, especially with the BFH support, but it's fitting given Polt's current title of Optimus to use mech "transform and roll out!"
Heh, I do agree that TL might use more GSL. A few of these matches were "surprisingly" easier to predict than previously hinted. Top, a couple of months ago, knocked NesTea out of the tournament—which, I suppose, hints at a fairly solid TvZ. Polt 4-0'd MMA with an embarassing ease during the finals, a couple of months ago.
Granted, I am not saying that these results were an easy bet; they were good hints that something could happen, though.
On August 24 2011 01:00 braheem wrote: ...I don't see how it is surprising at all that 80% voted for Julyzerg over Hongun...
With both of their styles in PvZ, it's literally like comparing Nestea vs Inca, and we know how that went. I watch GSL all the time, and I'd be really damn surprised if Hongun has a good showing here.
Well, Hungun has way more to show for himself in SC2 then July ever will.
Really now? Like what? LOL
What the heck are you smoking... July isn't some scrub, i don't know why people tend to think that, and Hongun has nothing notable over July under his belt...
I don't think you have a clue as to who you're talking about... might've confused him with someone else (MC maybe?).. do u watch GSL>?
Hongun has 7930 GSL points while july 5559
not way more, but hongun definitely has more results than july
and since he is stats wise the 2nd best protoss on earth, it's kinda stupid to assume that people think july's a scrub if he falls to hongun
Awesome read! I love seeing how the opinions of the TL'ers compare to those at Gom. Wish Tastosis was casting these games. it would almost be worth it for them not stay home from MLG just to cast MVP and Nestea.
Prepare for the backlash of dissing your own communities opinions and then being literally as wrong as possible about it... I voted Hongun but I would never call out someones knowledge for having picked July... Less aggressive wording would really help these GSL and GSTL predictions
On August 24 2011 21:16 Mattchew wrote: Prepare for the backlash of dissing your own communities opinions and then being literally as wrong as possible about it... I voted Hongun but I would never call out someones knowledge for having picked July... Less aggressive wording would really help these GSL and GSTL predictions
I vote MORE aggressive wording, this is the funnest part of the week coming back to the prediction posts just to see how many times the writer put their foot in their mouth.
Waxangel, your predictions were sound, but failed to account for HongUn being HongUn.
Recent series of HongUn: Beat Moon, Lose to Revival, Beat Zenio, Beat MC, Lose to BesTea, Lose to July.
Can you see the pattern here? I can't. Under most circumstances, you could say 'if you're certain HongUn will win/lose, pick the opposite.' You can't even do that. He lost to BesTea and beat Moon. That was expected. He's not even predictably unpredictable.
This is the part where I realize that 80% of TeamLiquid doesn't watch enough GSL, and sigh.
This is gunna be one of those eat your shirt moments, like when qxc all killed IM.
I fucking called it. July 2-0'd HongUn.
uh... did you even think of adding a spoiler tag?
Why would you go to the thread discussing the ro16 games AFTER the games were played WITHOUT watching the games?
LMAO! Who said that I didn't watch the games? You are so ignorant sir, all I did was trying to address a common mistake that people make. Just remember, there are fellow TL'ers who haven't watched the games yet and who would like the results not to be spoiled for them. Think further than your nose.
And this thread is a preview btw for your info lol.
LMAO! Who said that I didn't watch the games? You are so ignorant sir, all I did was trying to address a common mistake that people make. Just remember, there are fellow TL'ers who haven't watched the games yet and who would like the results not to be spoiled for them. Think further than your nose.
And this thread is a preview btw for your info lol.
Maybe you're the ignorant one for assuming he was talking to you and not making a generalization. Yes, this is a Preview thread, but the games are over and if you didn't watch the games talked about but scroll to the end of the comments on a Preview thread then you kind of deserve to be spoiled. You may also want to slow your roll and stop being so defensive. World doesn't revolve around you. Just some advice.
LMAO! Who said that I didn't watch the games? You are so ignorant sir, all I did was trying to address a common mistake that people make. Just remember, there are fellow TL'ers who haven't watched the games yet and who would like the results not to be spoiled for them. Think further than your nose.
And this thread is a preview btw for your info lol.
Maybe you're the ignorant one for assuming he was talking to you and not making a generalization. Yes, this is a Preview thread, but the games are over and if you didn't watch the games talked about but scroll to the end of the comments on a Preview thread then you kind of deserve to be spoiled. You may also want to slow your roll and stop being so defensive. World doesn't revolve around you. Just some advice.
lol Thank you for wasting your time on that TL newbie
On August 24 2011 21:13 ST_Elaina wrote: So WaxAngel... 80% of TL doesn't watch GSL?
I think 80% of TL just watched July 2-0 HongUn.
Words. Eaten.
Yeah... I'm pretty sure the guy that wrote this doesn't actually watch GSL (or pay attention much), which is the funny thing. HongUn has had that hand injury recently, had been thinking about quitting, and just simply hasn't looked too impressive in his games - specially PvZ
IMO I'm surprised that HuK is less favored that Nada. I believe that HuK has been practicing very hard and best matchup is PvT. I believe that his only real problem is PvZ as he has been struggling a little bit in that matchup. But, oh well. Time will tell.
Also, Nestea vs. IMMvP seems pretty solid a, if I recall, didn't he lose to MvP a few days back? This will be interesting. MvP seems to be better than he ever has been and I'm surprised.
But did you just insinuate people being amazed by NesTeas incredible run, as being mindless drones, when addressing him as god(with small 'g'), just because Tastosis said so, or that this conclusion just emerged in their brains as Tastosis uttered these words? Did you just try to make people sound foolish, to create your own imaginary high horse?
"I think we have Tastosis to thank for this one. Their half-joking, half-serious insistence that Nestea is indeed, a god, has caught on with most global fans of GSL."
He is known as the God of Zerg, and with good reason(numbers speak for themselves). All the others are reluctant to face him and have for quite a while. This didn't just dump in at the last GSL, when Tastosis said so, and NesTea steamrolled all without losing sets; acting like a god, where it has little bearing what they state in jest or what not. Maybe it affected you. Maybe you rooted for the other guy, and since then have tried to create some thesis and anti-thesis to your own dilemma and shortcoming. Maybe it is your insecure way to derail the NesTea express.
You don't need it. There is room for everyone... Hop aboard, WaxAngel.
Huk making it to the RO8 is pretty awesome. Hope he isn't wrecked by all the traveling he's been doing lately when he takes on MVP. If he can play his best it'll be another great match on the GSL.
EPT
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/mmapoltgraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/bomberkeengraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/zeniotopgraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/virusgeniusgraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/nesteamvpgraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/huknadagraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/puzzleryunggraph.png)
![[image loading]](/staff/Waxangel/GSL/Aug11/hongunjulygraph.png)
I voted for July, not necessarily because I think he will win, but I because I oh so sincerely hope he will. I know it says in the article that liquibets are often susceptible to the heart-syndrome, but that's really the only one I voted with the heart on. I was 50/50 on Nestea/MVP but chose Nestea on a coin-flip, and on HuK/NaDa I voted for HuK, but regretted voting as fast as I did.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ZjjJH.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/gwwTI.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/EMfnt.png)
