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Great write up! I love all the stats.
One small pet peeve is that the OP mentions the community giving someone a >80% chance of winning, which isn't true. If 80% of voters pick one player as their choice to win, it doesn't mean that the community thinks that player has an 80% chance to win. It just means that 80% of the community thinks the player has a >50% chance to win (or is voting with their heart).
The vote could be 95% to 5%, but it might just mean that 95% of people think Bomber has a 51% chance of winning, in an extreme example.
Anyways, sorry for the anal sidetrack and thanks again for the post! Maybe we can even see the remaining Toto numbers when they're available.
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terran has 1/1/1 
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On August 23 2011 07:12 Fermats_last wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote:Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems  Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust). Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently
Gambling is actually illegal in Korea, the toto bets use points as imaginary money.
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On August 23 2011 07:24 Waxangel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 07:12 Fermats_last wrote:On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote:Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust). Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently not real money, but people are pretty serious about their toto points :o
Aww man, I thought it was proper gambling haha. Now I feel like an idiot....
High stakes korean Starcraft gambling would be pretty cool though :D
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United States33470 Posts
On August 23 2011 07:33 Fermats_last wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 07:24 Waxangel wrote:On August 23 2011 07:12 Fermats_last wrote:On August 23 2011 07:08 PartyBiscuit wrote:Hmm, like this new angle of looking at everyone's votes. Korea always bets much closer it seems Edit: Just want to point out, I'd be highly surprised if Nestea managed to beat Mvp (unless he went for a surprise bane bust). Atleast in the Toto bets thats because it actually matters who you vote for. i.e actual money is on the line and the odds change accordingly apparently not real money, but people are pretty serious about their toto points :o Aww man, I thought it was proper gambling haha. Now I feel like an idiot.... High stakes korean Starcraft gambling would be pretty cool though :D
nah, bad stuff happened the last time around -_-;
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I guess the toto votes always end up further towards 50%, unless the odds are off.
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Day 2 is gonna be fuckin EPIC
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nice preview, i've learned quite a bit from the graphs like what you observed and commented on... i'm disappointed
(wow, still so many people think that Hong Un sucks? what's up? he's such a consistent player and has so many good results)
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After a long and philosophical discussion with a Unicorn named Alabanza, I was told that with enough long, hard work, and countless hours of studying, I could find a magical secret within the depths of GSL Code S August unbeknownst to all except those concerned and an evil wizard named GomTV. After examining and searching through TL at great lengths, I think I have discovered that secret:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ZjjJH.jpg)
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Lol at Hongun vs July's voting. A bit biased?
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Polt and Hongun got my vote! I also went for Virus, predicting an upset. Only time I went with TL when TL went opposite of GOM is with Huk. Is Nada still studying or is he playing full time?
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Great OP! I know that my Liquibet on MMA over Polt is definitely heart over mind. I just want to see the guy win everything ever; so hardworking and genuinely likable. I'd love to see him really take up the mantle of SC2's own version of BW BoxeR.
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I voted for July for the upset against HongUn lol, I actually think believe HongUn's going to win >.>
But I gave up on going for any system in my liquibets since I've seen so many upsets!
Next Season I'm going to flip a coin for every liquibet and see how that goes lol
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baller writer lol. Yes Terran has 1/1/1 indeed, no way Puzzle could beat Ruyng. And how could July has 80% vote against HongUn anyway.
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I disagree with the analysis of Bomber vs. Keen.
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =)
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United States33470 Posts
On August 23 2011 08:01 Sarang wrote:
I disagree with the analysis of Bomber vs. Keen.
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =)
Toto's settled at like 1:4 odds for Keen to win T_T
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I just realized that if July, Nada, and Polt all lose their round of 16 match, then MC can maintain his spot as number 3 in the GSL rankings. This has me conflicted.
Edit: Nada and July need to win to overtake MC, while Polt needs at least 2nd place.
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Lol what has July done recently to make 80% of Team Liquid pick him over someone who was just in the final 4?
Do people hate HongUn that much for whatever reason or does nobody pay attention?
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On August 23 2011 08:04 Waxangel wrote:Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 08:01 Sarang wrote:
I disagree with the analysis of Bomber vs. Keen.
I don't think anyone can deny that Bomber is the heavy favourite going into that series. And the fact that Bomber has 96.5% of the vote doesn't mean that the collective TL community thinks he has a 96.5% chance of winning - it means that 96% of the people who voted, voted for the player they think has a higher chance of winning.
Enjoyable write-up though! Thanks for writing it. =) Toto's settled at like 1:4 odds for Keen to win T_T
I don't know much anything about betting, but that seems pretty reasonable I think. =P
Bomber's only TvT series loss in 7 months (according to TLPD) was the collapse against Byun last GSL. Now let's never speak of that series again.
If we count GSTL losses in TvT, his last loss was to Ryung, 5 months ago.
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Poor Polt, going to have to win 10 GSLs before people give him credit for his skill.
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EPT
