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OSL season is just about to kick off, but before it does we need to work out who is going to qualify. To do that, we used to go through a grueling process of OnGameNet StarChallenge (OSC) followed by the OnGameNet Dual Tournament (ODT) to eliminate those who were not worthy. As grueling as that was, OGN decided to scrap it a while ago and now we're stuck with a cleaner, more elegant system to determine who makes it through to the top 16. They call this OSL Round 1 - but this writer refuses to consider this stage of the tournament part of the OSL; it's still just a qualifier for the real tournament.
With that digression aside, the format for this qualifier is as follows. Remember the OSL Prelims? Each player who won his groups is randomly paired up with another player who won their group and a player who lost in last seasons OSL before the Semifinals. The two players who qualified in from the OSL Prelims play a Best of 3 series. The winner advances to play a Best of 3 series with the player who lost from last seasons OSL. The winner of that Best of 3 series advances to the OSL! Easy, right?
There is large misconception about these groups, and that is that it always favors the player who lost in the OSL and not who the strongest player in the group is. This is completely untrue. Under this system it is more common for a strong player to advance from a group than under the old ODT system. That means that each season the OSL is always stacked with excellent players. Additionally, it means that more of the same players from last season will re-qualify for the OSL since they are already top players. So all in all this system makes great OSLs.
So what are we going to be looking at here today? Well firstly we'll take a brief look at the two new maps being introduced to the OSL and recap the other map that will be used in the OSL Round 1. We'll also take a look at the first three OSL groups and give you some predictions and analysis (and plenty of bias commentary
)The Maps
Heartbreak Ridge
TvZ: 19-15
ZvP: 23-20
PvT: 18-15
TvZ: 19-15
ZvP: 23-20
PvT: 18-15
Why did I bother posting the statistics about Heartbreak Ridge when they are some of the most misleading statistics of any map? I want to emphasis the fact that these stats do not truly reflect the balance of this map. Firstly, Monokeros wrote a cool article about the maps TvP balance (go read it). Basically, the map is a terrible TvP map in every regard. Artosis has called it "worse than Requiem" (which was really bad by the way). Any Protoss coming up a Terran on these maps should be shouting for joy. With that said, as far as I know, TvZ isn't so bad here. Sure the record looks bad but if you examine the most recent round of preliminaries the win rate is about 50%. But then we come to ZvP and well, this map is no where near balanced again. During the prelims the Z>P winrate here approached 60%. Which is a clear indication that something has gone wrong. So while Protoss can be happy if they get a Terran here, if they get a Zerg, they should be crying in the corner.
Why would the OSL keep a map like this in the map pool despite the fact that Outsider is a better map in every way? I have no idea. Although I suspect it's because they decided to steal one of the features of Outsider in one of their new maps.
El Nino
Ah, finally a new Ice Map. This map has two clear influences; Outsider and Paranoid Android. It uses the Outsider style island expansions as well as the small vs large ramp decision offered by PA. OSL maps are traditionally more radical in concept than other leagues, but this map is an exception. They haven't really tested any boundaries with this map, which is quite disappointing to see. Nevertheless, there are some interesting features in this map. Firstly there is the center. There are some very thin pathways right in the middle of the map. Terrans trying to push vs Protoss will love these small paths, while Zergs who are trying to flank the Terran or Protoss will absolutely despise them. They are a semi-quirky feature of the map, but I don't know how important they will be. The optimal route from base to base is still across the big ramps, so there is no real strategic value in holding the center. Thus I dont really expect the small paths to play any significant role in the map.
The backwards expansions, however, will be an interesting feature. There is one gas behind the backwards expansion which Protoss and Zergs will probably end up taking frequently. The other non-natural/main gas expansion is rather obscurely placed on the main ground of the map. To be precise, the patch of minerals to the left of the 12 main has a geyser right next to the cliff. Just rotate that by 120 degrees to get the other two gas expansions. I think that this is strongly going to encourage drop play - especially from Terrans. A dropship and two tanks can absolutely wreck havoc on a Protoss or Zerg expansion in these locations. Just think Iris vs Bisu on Byzantium, but with those drops being even more effective.
I think macro players are not going to be very happy with this map, while those who love harassing are going to have a field day. So expect Jaedong, Bisu and Fantasy to be eager for bloodshed while Stork and Flash will be quivering in their boots. At the end of the day though, this map is strongly going to favor intelligent players in the sense that players who mindlessly copy builds are going to be unable to adapt to the myriad of options players have on this map. (Similar to how all players tend to play worse on Outsider since it's so much more complicated than players are used to)
I really like this map, and I hope it's balanced so we can see it again next season.
Eye of the Storm
Another uninspired map. This is the next generation of standard map, but I guess they could have made it worse. This map is a better version of The Eye - a terrible twlight map that was used in the MSL when Savior was still good. However, this is still an improvement on 'terrible' - which doesn't mean this map is going to be very good. This map looks like Terrans are going to be having a field day. Neither the main or the natural are particularly vulnerable to Mutalisk harass, and the thin ridges and thin ramps make turtling vs Protoss a dream. Flash, in particular, is going to love this map since he can sit there and do nothing and not get punished for it!While Terrans will be happy against both Protoss and Zerg, I think that the Zerg are going to be very happy against Protoss as well. Lurkers are going to be great here - and setting up a contain should be no problem. So once again Protoss are going to have to endure a season of Lurker contains - not that Heartbreak wasn't bad enough already. The wide open center is a dream for Zerg as well since it allows for nice easy flanks.
All in all there isn't much to comment about this map since it's very bland and standard. I think the games will reflect that, as in there will be little variation from game to game. Although I will say this, I really enjoy watching Flash turtle (zero sarcasm I swear) so hopefully this season Flash will abuse this map as hard as he can and finally win his second OSL Gold.
Group A - Preview
 |  |  |  |  |
 Pusan | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm |  fOrGG |
| 101 - 76 | 83-59 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 55 - 47 |
Ah glorious! The matchup code used to generate the above table tells no lies. It draws the total statistics for each player and map - including the special events games. Thus, those statistics are significantly more accurate than just the televised games statistics. And low-and-behold, Heartbreak Ridge is sitting at a 58.5% Protoss win rate over Terran. With a sample size of over 100 games, this constitutes a clear imbalance. Additionally, the player statistics presented here are the total PvT/TvP winrate - including preliminaries.
Seeing Pusan back into the OSL makes me incredibly happy and with no Zergs in his group he has a real shot at qualifying. Both fOrGG and PuSan are macro players so their encounter here should be massive (i.e. lots of units). Additionally, PuSan has an edge over fOrGG in that he is a very clever player (as with everyone from MBC except Jaehoon) so the fact that they will be playing the opening games on these new maps works to his advantage. I must concede that fOrGG is probably the better player right now. But fOrGG's TvP doesn't look very strong - his last series against a good player was against Stork where he was 0-3'd. Meanwhile, Pusan just hasn't played many games at all and is 3-7 in his last 10 PvT's.
Pusan just went 12-0 in both qualifiers, and I'm really really hoping that that wasn't a fluke. Pusan has all the capabilities of being a top tier gamer (and so far is the only neo-King not to have a title) and fully deserves to destroy fOrGG. At the end of the day though, if you want to keep your money safe, bet on fOrGG - even though he is infamous for failure.
 | | | |  |
| Winner | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm | Canata |
| 101 - 76 | 83-59 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 40 - 33 |
| 56 - 46 | 54 games | 0 games | 0 games | 53 - 45 |
Canata is known for his TvT above all else, but I remember Canata for a different reason. I remember Canata for i-Station ODT. Pusan and Canata met in Game 1 on 815 and again in Game 5 on Rush Hour III. Pusan won their first encounter easily, the Rush Hour game was one of the best games ever played. It is still probably my favorite game, even though Canata won. Since Pusan lost to Canata in that game, he has not return to the top 16. It is only fitting that should Pusan advance to the OSL, that he advance through Canata. Should Pusan meet Canata here, I have no doubt that the resulting series will be amazing.
However the more probable scenario is that Canata gets to dust off his TvT and go to work on fOrGG. fOrGG's record in TvT is 56-46, very similar to Canata's. I don't really know who I would give the edge to here, simply because fOrGG is prone to failure. I guess I will go with Canata because I think overall he has a better understanding of TvT and on new maps thats the best asset in the world. So to summarize, Canata > fOrGG or Pusan > Canata. (no bias I swear).
Group B - Preview
 | | | |  |
| Really | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm |  Shine |
| 35-40 | 61-64 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 23 - 24 |
Really and Shine are both players who have shown moments of brilliance, and then moments that would make you gouge your eyes out. Additionally I have no idea how either is playing right now - I think Really is playing better, but that just might be estro bias creeping through. Heartbreak is a balanced TvZ map as well - which just makes deciding between these two players even more difficult. You probably have better luck predicting the result of this mach by flipping a coin. Nevertheless, the winner of this match doesn't matter because....
| | | |  |
| Winner | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm | Bisu |
| 38 - 28 | 59-83 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 105-65 |
| 23 - 11 | 83-63 | 0 games | 0 games | 90 - 45 |
Bisu is going to win here regardless of his opponent. Bisu is just in a different class to these guys and should have no problems. With that said, the question become which player will produce the better games against Bisu. Really vs Bisu has been done quite a lot before, and it's not particularly interesting. Shine has a pretty good ZvP (his stats speak for themselves) and with Bisu's legendary PvZ (and an imbalanced map to boot) I think the resulting series would be pretty cool. Of course, if Bisu lost he would complain bitterly about the maps in his interviews, but hey - he should have no problems.. right?
Group C - Preview
 | | | |  |
| Calm | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm | Reality |
| 56 - 37 | 64 - 61 | 0 - 0 | 0 - 0 | 3 - 3 |
I see this matchup and I think to myself "Ahhhh, fresh meat" in the voice of the Butcher from Diablo. Reality is a brand new progamer and after his first set of prelims he makes the OSL. Good job son! But now you have to face reigning MSL Champion and all around beast, Calm. This isn't going to be pretty. Calm is going to dissect Reality - hopefully Reality can take something educational out of the experience.
| | | |  |
| Winner | Heartbreak Ridge | El Niño | Eye of the Storm | Backho |
| 5 - 4 | 59-83 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 45 - 35 |
| 57 - 37 | 83-63 | 0 games | 0 games | 39 - 43 |
For completeness I listed Reality's stats, but in all fairness he just isn't going to beat Calm. So let's focus on Calm vs Backho. Calm is a monster Zerg right now and he has proven that he can over come any obstacle - even Jaedong - when he applies himself. Backho on the other hand, has a traditionally weak PvZ - as was exploited by July in their OSL Semifinal. So on one hand you have an intelligent inform Zerg and on the other you have a mindless cheesy Protoss. There is no way that Calm is going to lose to Backho - and with this decisive victory, Calm will move on to his first OSL (and rightfully so). Similarly, Backho will make an long overdue exit from the OSL.
So there you have it. Groups A and B will be played out on Wednesday 1700 KST (it's going to be a busy night!) while Group C is going to be played out on Friday 1830 KST. To watch, you can either sign up to OGN and watch their stream (details are in featured threads) or you can hope that some kind soul will stream the games on their livestream. Make sure you check the OP of the OSL Group X thread for all the details about who is streaming those games.
Plexa
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