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Fog or Snow are the obvious only choices for Day 1. Snow on days 1 and 2 might give us a very solid clue set from which to work from.
The only thing I worry about regarding an auto-fog vote is the inability to cross check for pledges later on. Basically you guys need to weigh the value of additional clues versus 2 extra kills. Remember that resurrection means that reducing mafia KP is more important, since we can approach a break-even point much quicker.
With that said, this is the only day that Cover is not active. From tomorrow onwards, mafia will likely attempt to get DTs to check covered targets, which means that a double check on the godfather knocks more than both our DTs out; It could also very well confirm a number of mafia as blue, and likely end the game. So would Godfather attempt to run for Emperor and draw DT checks to himself? I would if I were him.
Having said that. I will run for emperor, largely to split the vote and give us at the very least solid lists to check.
I'm not going to bother putting up a fancy platform, because quite frankly we really don't have enough information on mafia numbers or any clues with which to form a decent plan. As with the previous game I was in, I plan on setting up a situation that assures us kills during double lynches on days 3 and 4. Note that our DTs cannot confirm roles; they only get the ability to determine Mafia/Not mafia.
Because of this, It is my opinion that after day 1's 'checks' happen to form circles of trust, we co-ordinate vote list information, and have multiple cross checks to make sure no one is providing false information.
There is, however, a problem with that.
Given Godfather Emperor, Dts can never be certain that the 'other DT' they're told about is the real one. If they doubt and don't role check, Godfather can use DT cover and then we have a situation in which detective info can be faked. This, however, is a foolish gambit; if the fake DT is not mafia, he will not be able to provide the true DT with a vote list to check alongside the list published in the thread, and if he is mafia, reds cannot kill DTs singly without having the other unmask 2 mafia worth 1.5 kp. Essentially the gambit is useless, unless the mafia want to keep the DTs alive, but that would result in a crushing amount of cross checked vote lists.
So, given the fact that the alternative is fucking stupid as shit, Emperor or whomever DTs end up trusting needs to reveal the existance of the other DT. DTs NEED to be sure to check before night starts, however, and we cannot fuck the timing up. In this way, a mafia godfather cannot falsify vote-lists even if a DT replies late and the Godfather is forced to post during night.
All of that said, there are some intentional 'mistakes' left in this plan, and a few potential gambits the mafia could use against it. Feel free to find them.
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Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached.
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On July 03 2009 12:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Also, mafia can fake vote list checks because they know how many mafia vote for each person... Also, you correctly said that the DT need to role check important people Day 1 before Cover is possible... so why would we do anything other than Fog Day 1 when DTs should be using alignment check instead of vote list check (which they can't use Day 1). I dunno how intentional these mistakes are but it doesn't look like anything someone should Pyrry Says: vote BloodyC0bbler unless he comes up red today because he's the best player running and, at the very least, he understands (this should be obvious) that taking anything other than the guaranteed KP lowering at this point is stupid. See this thing? If you're green, TURN IT ON! 
Fog is by far the best option for day 1 by far. If we are going to to play a list based game during days 2-5, we can't keep fog up during day 2. Fog, however, may not be the best choice during subsequent days, when Rain and Snow provide us with a .33kp reduction if we play our priest right, or additional clues and let us check lists.
And all of the 'mistakes' are within the area after.
Mafia cannot 'set up' lists. We cut the checked lists in half every day and substantially hem their ability to throw votes around in. They can delay the inevitable, but all of their pledges should be out in the open by day 4-5. Losing the suicide bomber means we can do a number of solid things, like set up our angels on our priest and have him just chain res blue targets.
Plexa, do covered pledges show up on lists? Do dead covered people flip as the cover or as their real role?
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On July 03 2009 12:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached. They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort.
The platform isn't simply putting another name on the ballot, but that's the only concrete benefit we get out of another person running. I've already outlined my basic gameplan as emp, but all of that is subject to change if we get lucky hits, lose a fuckton of blues, a bunch of people play retardedly, etc.
I really shy away from making predictions which aren't mathematically probable, and that's why i'm not going to try and lock myself into a certain mode of play. My preferred mode would be the one I listed, but you can go back up and read it.
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On July 03 2009 12:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 12:24 L wrote:On July 03 2009 12:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached. They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort. The platform isn't simply putting another name on the ballot, but that's the only concrete benefit we get out of another person running. I've already outlined my basic gameplan as emp, but all of that is subject to change if we get lucky hits, lose a fuckton of blues, a bunch of people play retardedly, etc. I really shy away from making predictions which aren't mathematically probable, and that's why i'm not going to try and lock myself into a certain mode of play. My preferred mode would be the one I listed, but you can go back up and read it. Alright, I understand your plan a little better now with your further explanation / clarification. It's something to consider but, like you say, a lot could go wrong. Fog spam, though not fancy, is pretty sturdy and will help us win the game if we just play better than the mafia.
The problem I have with fog is that we can assuredly get a few pledges with proper list checks during days 2-5 which opens us to the other 3 weather choices. If we're right about the 4.5kp-> 5, after 2 pledge kills we gain the equivalent of perma fog.
Doing so opens us up to something like rain spam/res into sunny when we're sure about our clues. Rain spam is a net -.33 mafia kp, since if done right we can keep our mystic invulnerable pretty much the entire game.
The goal, as usual is how to net some early KP cutting kills, and that's where I'm somewhat on the fence. Snow and an active town with solid clue interpretation + list checks is devastating. Snow + a stupid town + poor DT control is a gigantic waste of weather. That's why I don't want to really pin weather down for future days until we see what type of information we're pulling out.
Either way, day 1 fog is the best option assuming no one can capitalize on a snow clue. When day 2 rolls around, we'll have some more information to go on and we'll be better placed to discuss what the best course of action lays ahead of us.
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I'm somewhat hoping that green townies having a critical game function will help out in that manner, but no, I'm not assuming we'll have perfect vote lists.
In actuality, some people dropping off of lists will speed shit up depending on the counts we get.
Either way, I'm not 100% into going full out on list checking. I kinda want to see how people vote today and who's killed. If we have a bunch of high suspicion players, having our DTs check individual alignments might be more worth our while. Regardless, that's something we'll have to discuss more when we have additional information.
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If covered pledges do not show up on lists there is almost no point to trying to split lists and narrow the groups down systematically.
Fog is looking much stronger in that instance.
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Catching up with thread. Will post when I'm done.
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First impressions, midway through page 8: HeavOn is 100% right about the likely hood of one of us being GF compared to him. His chance is a straight 1/38, ours are much higher.
That said, that was the exact same reasoning we used to almost get randombum into mayor during mafia 2 (LOL WAY TO GO INACTIVE MAFIA MEMBERS). We got him pardoner instead, which ended up netting us some info, so I'd suggest people vote the person they're most comfortable with. I personally can't favor the math here because I know i'm 100% innocent, which forces me to favor my candidacy.
As for one of us three being GF, I can see mafia advancing GF to take DT checks and establish a fake circle of trust, but GF isn't a standard mafia member in this game. He has a straight KP and Cover, which might FAR outweigh the risk/reward of getting into office, but it seems to me from my initial analysis that that's not the case. Either way, even if its favorable, most players play suboptimally in all mafia games, so it wouldn't be surprising if the GF wasn't running.
The reason WHY pre-running was removed is that it gives the pre-running player a much lower risk of getting in, and the move is made pre-role distribution which means that their candidacy gives us nearly zero information.
Moving onto page 9 now.
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On July 04 2009 09:03 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2009 07:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:This has gotta be the least active game ever  nothing has really happened in the last 6 hours. I guess JeeJee started running and Heavonearth finally gave a platform but meh. Not good for town. How's this not good for the town?
Page 9: Heav0n's throwing down absolutely terrible analysis. The man with the golden gun's weapon was tiny, for instance.
The above quote is very interesting: If you've been in any other game you know that the real 'killer' mentioned in the above post is inactivity. Inactive means we have less information. Means mafia can sit back and pick us off.
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On July 04 2009 12:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2009 10:30 L wrote:
First impressions, midway through page 8: HeavOn is 100% right about the likely hood of one of us being GF compared to him. His chance is a straight 1/38, ours are much higher.
That said, that was the exact same reasoning we used to almost get randombum into mayor during mafia 2 (LOL WAY TO GO INACTIVE MAFIA MEMBERS). We got him pardoner instead, which ended up netting us some info, so I'd suggest people vote the person they're most comfortable with. I personally can't favor the math here because I know i'm 100% innocent, which forces me to favor my candidacy.
As for one of us three being GF, I can see mafia advancing GF to take DT checks and establish a fake circle of trust, but GF isn't a standard mafia member in this game. He has a straight KP and Cover, which might FAR outweigh the risk/reward of getting into office, but it seems to me from my initial analysis that that's not the case. Either way, even if its favorable, most players play suboptimally in all mafia games, so it wouldn't be surprising if the GF wasn't running.
The reason WHY pre-running was removed is that it gives the pre-running player a much lower risk of getting in, and the move is made pre-role distribution which means that their candidacy gives us nearly zero information.
Moving onto page 9 now. This is gonna be like learning Santa Claus isn't real all over again (hope I didn't spoil anyone), but the people who run these games don't usually assign the roles in a perfectly random way. They usually make sure a total noob doesn't become GF, for example, and the GF is usually randomized around until it lands on a player who is at least somewhat experienced, which fits all three people running. Don't forget that a player who announces their candidacy before the election can always pull out after the game starts if they roll blue and don't want to draw attention to themselves, or are green and would rather a blue win, or are red and don't want to get checked or have the cover on them all game long (for any of these reasons they could come up with some excuse not related to the game). Any GF who started running before receiving their role would certainly yell "jackpot!" and stay in the race. Heavonearth's chances of being GF are certainly higher than 1/38, and, all things considered, probably not very different compared to L's or BC's.
Oh, I know that. We've had the godfather being re-randomized outing before.
Either way, 1/possible players is quite a bit less than 1/role induced candidacy. Doesn't really matter either way because he dropped out of the race. We can actually deduce rather quickly that Heav0n is unlikely to be a mafioso or pledge if he decided to run seriously. The fact that he pulled out and made a really shitty set of clue interpretations works against him.
Speaking of being active, I have a habit of voting late. When does the current day end? I'll assume July 6th 0:00 KST?
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People shouldn't be drive-by voting when people are bitching in-thread about activity. That goes for everyone that voted. If you aren't posting here and toss a vote into the vote thread, just pop in and go "i voted xyz because abc".
But more importantly; What, exactly, should DTs be doing post check? Should they out themselves to the person they checked? I don't mind them outing themselves to me because I know i'm legit, but they don't. They can't, either. They can't post in-thread about it without putting a big 'fuck me in the face first night plz" target on themselves. They can't really do much at all besides raise a flag if a pledge or mafioso was running, and we already have a massive deterrent against that set-up in the proposed DT checks.
As for tomorrow onwards, the emperor can be covered to mafia too.
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Well, that's the thing, as high an opinion of ourselves as we have, we can't assume they know as much as we do, especially since we've all agreed that GF running wouldn't be a bad idea.
So if they can't be assumed to come out into the open, the checks today essentially do nothing more than prevent a later check from being switched with cover, because the threat of checks itself has been here for around a day and no pledge/mafioso would run.
Which is why I'm wondering what the fuck DTs should do.
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If he's wrong, he dies. That's a pretty big flaw, seeing as around 1/4th of the players in the game are out to kill him.
The DTs aren't going to find a mafia or pledge running for office, so we're not going to learn anything from their check. Better that they pick people who are voting oddly (LOL HALF OF THE PEOPLE ON ME. YEAH, THATS RIGHT), or people who are outspoken but not in the running.
The office is going to come down to faith for all but 2 people. Me and BC know our roles. The only issue I can see with my suggestion would be if BOTH BC and I are mafia aligned, but if that was the case I wouldn't have waited close to 2 days to say this.
If anyone disagrees and thinks we're actually going to catch someone or reduce our fear of godfather by checking me and BC for any unused DT checks, voice your concern. Otherwise I think its a better idea if, say, pyrr or one of those early 4 bandwagoners on me get checked.
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Dear Scamp: Get more active. That shit isn't going to work twice in a row.
-L
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Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave.
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On July 06 2009 02:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 02:13 L wrote:
Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave. Except the reasoning is faulty. Using an autolynch instantly on your running mate gives you pretty well dick all if they are green. Besides, this plan ensures that when mbh revives, neither you or I lead the town. This plan works for the towns best interest, just requires us not crashing this ship before hes back in the game.
Not exactly. If they're green, you know far more about how mafia would have voted, and if they're the GF you gain a massive amount. If you wanted someone known-town you can simply revive the other person, and that's that. The way it is now, the town is basically forced into throwing all our weather + medic protection onto a certain few players for the rest of the game, which amounts to more than +3 kills. It also confirms angels when they take their first hit, because no one else is going to get prot. We also can't NOT rain for the next 3 days because if mafia unravel the priest clue, a suicide bomb puts us so far behind it isn't funny.
The problem with this plan is that it doesn't ensure that MBH revives at all; an angel kill tonight all but ensures we lose both the priest and him. As it stands, mafia hits for 5 next night and can spend a night taking the priest role out of the game whenever they choose, even with rain. Even if they don't, mafia have the advantage of knowing the medic protection is going to be prefferentially put on the priest, so they have the luxury of simply dropping 10 of our most active non-priest posters before killing the priest, which is half of the active players in the game. Look at our current activity levels and make an assumption about the proportion of mafia active posters (3-5 of them posting?), then check the proportion of town to mafia posters on day 3-4.
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
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On July 06 2009 03:47 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 03:10 L wrote:
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
Earlier you had stated if elected you would've killed BC. Your reasoning makes it sound that BC should've killed you instead of MrBabyHands. You're advocating that killing MrBabyHands was a bad idea (or at the very least, there was better options) yet the other alternative that YOU suggest would be BC killing you. That being said, had it still been up to you, who would you have lynched that's not BC?
Me.
I know i'm green, but he doesn't, nor does the town.
If not me, Heav0n.
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On July 06 2009 04:00 So no fek wrote:
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.
I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.
Redtooth's plan was a box of idiocy. Our vigis can't hit first night and he wanted us to go sunny. This is a complete red herring.
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And for the triple post: Can someone make a list of every post the people who died put up?
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On July 06 2009 01:07 Elemenope wrote:Ah, apparently this plan happened while I was sleeping -.- I'm on lunch break right now so this post will be short, but although I agree with the general premise of the plan. I don't agree on who was lynched. If we make the standard assumption that mafia is running for office, and we go further with that by saying a GF is running for office since rolechecks can happen now for the mayor candidate: Why not lynch L instead of MBH? Although, in my opinion, MBH would seem like a bigger threat if he were mafia, you said yourself; With this plan, although good in theory, it seems wasted on MBH as all we're getting is extra insurance of MBH's alignment, but now we're risking losing the priest's power completely. We also lose MBH's ideas/analysis of people for the next 2 or 3 days or whatever, and we may lose them completely if the priest is found; and if angels can find the priest, then I'm sure mafia can figure it out, too; but then again, Show nested quote +Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option. Aren't we kind of doing that now? And if our medics are as incompetent as TL history shows, then the priest might not even have protection at all. Although I realize the quote was trying to advise fog over rain, the thoughts and premise behind it also apply here since we're going to most likely have to use rain because of the suicide bomber. Yeah, mafia might lose a KP because of that, but does it really matter? It gets rid of a major power role of a network of confirmed innocents and the priest basically reduces mafia KP by .33 anyway as long as his ability is used every moment. Now we have to wait til Day 4(?) for us to make use of MBH. I just feel that if we lynched L, we would've gained a lot more information in comparison to MBH who we find out is innocent (which is a plus), but we would've found that out anyway tomorrow or the next day.
And the two subsequent posts, for starters.
Please don't do half assed work. Makes you look like you don't actually care about the town.
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a few people posting are 4 people with a combined 1 post (according to Chezinu, haven't double checked that)
Please, by all means, go double check.
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Pretty sure Kuja900 and TruthBringer are mafia.
Kuja links up with explosives; his mybrute is the only one listed with a bomb, and the only mention of explosives in general.
TruthBringer's skeleton links up with the lead filled head, the reference to a lack of organic material in the skull and the arrogant walk.
Pretty simple and it fits with their activity in the thread.
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I'm going to do this a bit more in depth and with colours, because short posts are easy to swamp with terrible ones if mafia wants to move to the next page.
Day 1
All was quiet in the town of Liquiville. The sleepy town had never been one which dabbled in the troubles of bigger cities and was content to live a simple country life. The moon was high in the sky with the light filtering through the windows of the village folk when the silence was broken by a shrill sharp yell. Confused, two of the village folk went out to investigate the strange noises. Their search lead them to the Emperor’s Palace, a find they wished they could just forget.
As they stepped through the gates they saw a sight which resembled a bloody battle. The bodyguards were strung up on lines like a human clothes line. Blood spilling from their gored bodies and pooling on the ground. The two forced themselves to continue on, for the sake of the town. They tread through the blood and into the inner palace. Little did Camlito and Ace know that this foolish move would be their last. As they entered, a bomb went off to their right, sending a pillar crashing down on top of the poor innocent townies. Both were flattened into human pancakes.
The events at the Palace were not yet through for the night. Plexa, the Emperor, had heard the noises, seen his Bodyguards brutally tortured and murdered and heard the explosion down stairs. He knew that whoever the intruders were, they were after him. Fortunately Plexa’s Palace was well equipped with hiding places after his Uncle’s erratic fear of giant spiders. It was not difficult for him to completely conceal his presence in the room.
Two men were rummaging around in a room nearby, where exactly he could not tell. The sounds came closer and closer and very soon they were in the same room as him. He saw two men; one tall and lanky, the other carrying an explosive device. Their plan became immediate to him, they were going to blow his palace up with him inside. The two began setting the device while Plexa buried himself in his hiding place.
“Wait” said one of them. Plexa heard footsteps, he heard gun load, he felt the cold of the barrel up against the back of his neck. The man pulled the trigger. The Emperor was dead.
Dawn broke, and the cry of the countless vultures overhead woke the villagers from their slumber. The smell of death filled the air and immediately they all knew their quiet little village would stay quiet no longer. Amongst the ruins of the Palace the village found the body of their beloved Emperor as well as the bodies of his fallen guards. There was a note posted on the town gallows which read “We will not rest until every last villagers is dead. You will all pay for what you have done to me”. The town was confused at this note, but knew what they must do. A new Emperor must be elected, one prepared to fight the Mafia insurgence and save the town from brutal slaughter.
Day 2
Liquiville prided itself on it’s cheese, after all it was Liquiville’s primary export. The Cheese factory lay on the outskirts of the village and operated around the clock manufacturing cheese. Four members of the Mafia congregated outside of the factory and planned to butcher the occupants and ruin the towns economy. The Mafia entered the building and split up; two travelled alone while two travelled together.
The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Meanwhile in Liquiville’s most holy temple a Priest was channeling all his rage and hate into the corpse of the recently deceased MrBabyHands. Uncertain of what his fate would be, the Priest knew in his heart that whatever the outcome, MrBabyHands must walk again for the sake of the town. The resurrection had begun.
Red Clues link to TruthBringer:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=TruthBringer
First off is the Arrogant look. This links twice to the profile.
The first link is via the skeleton picture. Slightly leaning back, the skeleton has the most arrogant possible look I've ever seen put on bones. Bit stretched, but whatever. His name also links here, since it implies that he's somewhat of a cocky guy.
The second link is the fact that he kept his eyes peeled; Carbon FC links here: it is a glassy carbon used to make motorcycle visors.
Next: Shikyo leaps out of his chair in shock.
Well, no fucking shit, a skeleton just broke into the room.
Third: The method of death;
Explicit reference to a lack of organic matter in Shikyo's head, much like the decayed skull that TruthBringer has. That's not the 'big clue' though. The fact that his head is filled with so much lead that its more metal than flesh, however, is. An entire pistol clip couldn't do that, but a chaingun sure fucking could.
Fourth and Lastly: Vivi's death
Vivi is cut in half by bullets. Chainguns can do this, pistols cannot, rifles cannot, shotguns would need to be near point blank and fired in a specific pattern to do so.
Overall, the chaingun is pretty telling here.
Blue clues link to Kuja900.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Kuja900
Note how there's very little solid information directly related to the character besides for his love of explosives. He's the only one I have linked to explosives via his mybrute (I checked all of the one listed in profiles, as of right now, his is the only one with a bomb). He also seems to be fairly quick, which his character is.
Between the two, Truthbringer is obviously a far better target, but I haven't found someone who links to explosives as well as Kuja. The fox glove clue can link to digitalis or cardiac drug medicines, but we can wait a day and see if anything extra comes up here.
So to recap: Vote the shit out of TruthBringer.
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there are so many other gun related profiles Name some.
The only other solid link to a gun is Scaramanga.
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On July 06 2009 13:14 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 13:13 L wrote: there are so many other gun related profiles Name some. The only other solid link to a gun is Scaramanga. isnt gay man lucas have a gun mentioned in his profile?
Did you even look at his profile? Are you fucking trolling?
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On July 06 2009 13:06 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
As a general note, both day 1 and day 2 have included two similar people
a tall lanky man, and a man who likes explosives.
Araav is an acronym for Armored Reconnaissance Airborne Assault Vehicle, if they are together one other day, i would suggest that they are a pair as araav needs a pilot to move around and would explain the facination with explosives, the insane damage on vivi, and the seeds solid link him to day 2
How, exactly, does an airdropped tank tie people up?
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On July 06 2009 13:21 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 13:13 L wrote: there are so many other gun related profiles Name some. The only other solid link to a gun is Scaramanga. well LucasWoJ has several metal weapons, shock could refer to BWDero or JeeJee's quote about fear, I already mentioned it could be way of hinting at metal rock. That's already many more possible alternative causalities for those passages than I've found for foxglove seeds, which is why Araav is higher on my target priority list currently.
Oh, so metal rocks shoot people with bullets?
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On July 06 2009 13:31 ydg wrote:
Also, isn't it interesting how quick Pyrrh is to support BC's (weak) clue analysis, just as how quick he was to support his platform?
PLZ, DONT GIVE THE EASY TELL AWAY. THEY'RE GOING TO STOP AND COVER UP NOW.
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On July 07 2009 00:50 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 14:59 HeavOnEarth wrote:so like, L's posts are getting buried under a lot of shit. You need to change that "shit" to "good analysis", then move the shit in between "L's" and "posts", then change sad face to happy face. All better!
Haha, Ace and I were having a chat about you being a retard before you posted this. Then you posted this and confirmed it.
No matter how you slice it, you're on tricode/vivi levels of stupid.
And now, back to reading.
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There are a bunch of people who are about to outted by looking at voting patterns and thread activity.
Lets examine the general course of conversation this game has taken.
We started talking in general terms about weather. We then slid into a chat about what type of mafia one would send into the election. The answer was simple: the godfather. Elections went on, some odd voting happened, then we nearly completely dropped the topic.
Why is this important? Because BC is acting incoherently in his role. BC will criticize ydg for 'flip flopping', but flip flops himself, posting:
On July 05 2009 14:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ydg
Ecomania
Elemenope
Kuja
Scamp
If elected, i will be random # generating from this list.
Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game)
Elemenope seems shifty to me based on a question he asked previously in the thread,
ecomania, kuja and scamp due to general inactivity
then essentially going "oh wait nevermind, i'm going to kill a power player instead" 40 minutes later. Regardless of the wisdom of the plan, BC can't be pointing out other people for changing their minds when he's been the biggest flip flopper in the game when it comes down to concrete life or death decisions. More importantly, check that list: Who's number 1 there? The person BC is trying to get the town to bandwagon right now. Okay, fair enough, he's had a grudge and has been searching for shit to pin on ydg despite not having ANY clue information to back his claims up.
There's obviously more poor argumention from him, quite a bit of it stemming from kill MBH plan and a bit more coming from previous conversations. That alone isn't enough to pin someone as being mafia. Tricode last game was throwing up complete garbage posts, but he was just an idiot townie. What makes BC special is WHO his friends are and WHEN they support him.
Next: Lets take a gander at the vote lists:
BloodyC0bbler [13]
TruthBringer
Pyrrhuloxia
HeavOnEarth
ydg
LucasWoJ
Shikyo
BWdero
Falcynn
Scaramanga
Faronel
StorZerg
Foolishness
Vivi57
L [10]
So no fek
iNfuNdiBuLuM
Chezinu
ecomania
motbob
GoodWill
iLoveKT
Malongo
chaoser
JeeJee
Abstain [9]
redtooth
BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
Bockit
Lenwe
vx70GTOJudgexv
araav
Elemenope
MrBabyHands
The bolded member of the list are special because they correspond to typical voting periods for mafia members on a mafia candidate. Mafia will seed a list to get a bandwagon running, then let it grow a bit on its own, sprinkling a few extra votes in the middle, but holding most of their members back if they need to make a last minute push. The early voters? TruthBringer and Pyrr. TruthBringer has been silent and is by far our best clue link, and Pyrr defends BC fanatically, throwing a few red herrings at other players now and then. The two bolded votes further down correspond to the 11th and 12th votes for BC respectively, the votes needed to overcome the fact that I hadn't yet voted and assure the win for BC. Foolishness is posting useless comments and poor analysis all over the thread, adding to the 'chaos' that BC was talking about when referring to flip flopping. StorZerg Is nearly 100% silent.
The italicized members are those that have been put under suspicion in the past few pages. That said, there are likely only 3-5 mafia on that list, with the other 3-5 being on me or abstaining. Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following:
Araav - 3
Storzerg
Pyrrhuloxia
So no fek
YDG - 5
Foolishness
vx70GTOJudgexv
BloodyC0bbler
iLoveKTF
Falcynn
Out of the 5 most likely mafia members, 3 of them are seeding bandwagon lists to deflect the pressure put on a fourth member: TruthBringer.
Wake the fuck up. Don't take my word for granted either. Think this shit through yourself. Town is getting fucking RAPED right now. We aren't active and the mafia are actively putting up walls of shit posts to throw you off and make you too lazy to go back and find quality information.
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Oh wait, did I say 3 of them? I meant 4.
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On July 07 2009 08:34 BloodyC0bbler wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 07 2009 07:59 L wrote:There are a bunch of people who are about to outted by looking at voting patterns and thread activity.Lets examine the general course of conversation this game has taken. We started talking in general terms about weather. We then slid into a chat about what type of mafia one would send into the election. The answer was simple: the godfather. Elections went on, some odd voting happened, then we nearly completely dropped the topic. Why is this important? Because BC is acting incoherently in his role. BC will criticize ydg for 'flip flopping', but flip flops himself, posting: Show nested quote +On July 05 2009 14:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Ydg
Ecomania
Elemenope
Kuja
Scamp
If elected, i will be random # generating from this list.
Ydg as he tends to go inactive for alot of a game in most games (sorry bud but inactives kill the game)
Elemenope seems shifty to me based on a question he asked previously in the thread,
ecomania, kuja and scamp due to general inactivity then essentially going "oh wait nevermind, i'm going to kill a power player instead" 40 minutes later. Regardless of the wisdom of the plan, BC can't be pointing out other people for changing their minds when he's been the biggest flip flopper in the game when it comes down to concrete life or death decisions. More importantly, check that list: Who's number 1 there? The person BC is trying to get the town to bandwagon right now. Okay, fair enough, he's had a grudge and has been searching for shit to pin on ydg despite not having ANY clue information to back his claims up. There's obviously more poor argumention from him, quite a bit of it stemming from kill MBH plan and a bit more coming from previous conversations. That alone isn't enough to pin someone as being mafia. Tricode last game was throwing up complete garbage posts, but he was just an idiot townie. What makes BC special is WHO his friends are and WHEN they support him. Next: Lets take a gander at the vote lists: BloodyC0bbler [13] TruthBringer
Pyrrhuloxia HeavOnEarth
ydg
LucasWoJ Shikyo BWdero Falcynn Scaramanga Faronel StorZerg
Foolishness Vivi57 L [10] So no fek iNfuNdiBuLuM Chezinu ecomania motbob GoodWill iLoveKT Malongo chaoser JeeJee Abstain [9] redtooth BloodyC0bbler Fishball Bockit Lenwe vx70GTOJudgexv araav Elemenope MrBabyHands The bolded member of the list are special because they correspond to typical voting periods for mafia members on a mafia candidate. Mafia will seed a list to get a bandwagon running, then let it grow a bit on its own, sprinkling a few extra votes in the middle, but holding most of their members back if they need to make a last minute push. The early voters? TruthBringer and Pyrr. TruthBringer has been silent and is by far our best clue link, and Pyrr defends BC fanatically, throwing a few red herrings at other players now and then. The two bolded votes further down correspond to the 11th and 12th votes for BC respectively, the votes needed to overcome the fact that I hadn't yet voted and assure the win for BC. Foolishness is posting useless comments and poor analysis all over the thread, adding to the 'chaos' that BC was talking about when referring to flip flopping. StorZerg Is nearly 100% silent. The italicized members are those that have been put under suspicion in the past few pages. That said, there are likely only 3-5 mafia on that list, with the other 3-5 being on me or abstaining. Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: Araav - 3 Storzerg
PyrrhuloxiaSo no fek YDG - 5 Foolishnessvx70GTOJudgexv BloodyC0bbleriLoveKTF Falcynn Out of the 5 most likely mafia members, 3 of them are seeding bandwagon lists to deflect the pressure put on a fourth member: TruthBringer. Wake the fuck up. Don't take my word for granted either. Think this shit through yourself. Town is getting fucking RAPED right now. We aren't active and the mafia are actively putting up walls of shit posts to throw you off and make you too lazy to go back and find quality information. Ok, as your post is huge im shoving it in a spoiler to start. Now, to start. YDG has been on my list from the get go, I will admit, but hey lets look at what I've done first. a) Pushed day 1 fog issue while debates on weather were going on, It locked in the most useful selection for town b) Killed MBH - Now this can be viewed as a bad move except for the fact as it flipped his colour showing town, giving us the best tool town needs to win, which is a strong player who's confirmed town. c) given analysis - some good some bad, but its day 2, thats expected. Now, out of those 3, the first two are insanely town oriented, Mafia would never actually be the center of pushing those issues as it gives up its advantage of control. As for the last point, YDG analysis is overall solid, and any defense of him is just to get me out of the way. Now lets look at this post ive quoted above, and we see L has bolded (but not italisized) truthbringer, making it sound like the stuff was on him for ages more than the rest. I have put suspicion on YDG well before L's on truthbringer, although not as detailed still there, ie not in the last few pages. He purposely leaves out araav and judge as possible suspects although suspicion was drawn onto them as well. But instead he leaves them out. Show's that L doesn't like giving complete information to those he is trying to convince, but thats typical. He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it. "Since I'm in the unique position of knowing that mafia would only vote for me to camouflage themselves (unless they wanted to warp my mind and control my precious fog votes), This tells me that BC is far too likely to be mafia to be followed in bandwagons. Lets examine those people who have been following: " How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it. However, the one biggest factor between myself and L has been in the idea of the Priest resurrection plan. Yes its a gambit, but if priest lives one more night, we get a leader who can snipe red easily. Double lynch will be used to be at his disposal immediately. But L instead said he would auto lynch me, his competition for an idea of how the "mafia" voted. However, if he did that and I flipped green as both he and I know i would, it would leave town in a position that they would have a leader who would kill his only opposition for leadership, as well as a list of people who are almost for sure innocent. Leaving him to be lynched by town and double lynches lost in the game, and no serious leadership. My analysis on judge was dismissed because it linked to far to many things to be likely by most of you, yet L's own analysis on truthbringer (much more solid I will admit) connects to many many many things in that kill, which if one very convinient link is dismissed, so should the other for similar reasons. As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice, Now look at people who have risen to YDG's defense YDG himself L Infundibulum motbob when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. I however have defended myself. My actions this game have proven my intent to get a win for the town, that is the leadership you should be following.
I see you're throwing out falsities again. Lets go through this.
I bolded truthbringer because he was the first vote for you. The bolded positions aren't based on players, they're based on timing. I specifically mentioned that and explained that the bold mentioned members of that list are in prime mafia voting areas; the start or to push someone over the top.
You, by contrast claim that I bold him to make it seem like i have "ages" more on him than the rest. No, That's purely a position matter. The fact that Foolishness is spamming the thread (which you considered a mafia move), TruthBringer is silent (which you considered a good method of selecting a random target from early game prior to killing MBH), StorZerg is silent, etc shows that there's more than just position in play here. TruthBringer has clue analysis, behavior AND voting patterns which all predict he's mafia.
Yet you go after someone you admit you've been trying to kill since day 1 for being quiet. The problem is that we have better information to go on, he isn't silent, and your reasons for targetting him can be applied to YOU as well.
You can't explain away all of that, now can you?
Next: I leave out araav? No I don't. He very well may be mafia too. You've already moved on from araav after ignoring my questions regarding how a tank quickly ties people up, and the veritable battery of 'what the fuck' from the town. In terms of your analysis, you know as well as I do that yours is absolutely bullshit. The question is: why? Are you trying to lure out mafia, or are you trying to set up suspicions now so that mafia can steer votes away from people like TruthBringer?
He also includes the vote lists from the day before of people who voted for me, him and abstained. Wait a second, if I was mafia, why did I kill two people off my own list? Wait why am I targetting more people on said list. Mafia elects always have their team push them into office, by killing people off my own list I would only be giving away my team if I was red, L knows this as well, yet doesn't mention it. I also know its the only list you can push with pledges and not get list checked. If you're so confident that the list isn't ripe with red, why don't you call a double lynch and let us clear it out a bit more, hmm? Oh, because you're covering for someone.
How would he know he is in such a unique position? has the planets aligned and said "L IS OUR CHOSEN ONE" no, he is in the same position as I am, both of us giving things to the town to benefit it. Uh, you and I both have the knowledge of one of the roles of someone who seriously ran for office. That's why I'm in a unique position. If you're godfather, I'm the person who has the most information telling me that you are because of the fact that I know i'm not. No one else can tell if i am, and frankly DTs can't check at this point either because of your cover ability.
As for him saying the town is getting raped? The mafia is clutching at straws period. They had 4 mishits (shikyo would not have known he was bg), which shows the mafia needs a powerplay to get ahead. Town will soon have a confirmed powerhouse up and able to beat the mafia, as such they need to get rid of people pushing town forward. Killing me would make sense for them to remove that voice, WHAT VOICE? You've said it yourself; town shouldn't need you unless MBH gets killed. You're contradicting yourself at such a high rate, it boggles my mind.
I'm not going to sit down and make the player who has the highest likelihood of being the godfather in the game dictate who I should lynch and how I should analyse. This both goes against your own platform, your cute little twist with killing off one of our best players, and the most basic rule of thumb for a town player: think for yourself. I'm not telling everyone they need to believe me. I told them to look at the information in front of me. You, by contrast are telling people to shut up and get in line for mafia house slaughter time. Sorry, no dice.
And for irony's sake:
when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. Like you, pyrr and foolishness did when I posted my analysis of truthbringer? He hasn't shown up either. By your very own logic, you should realize that people who aren't in your little cabal should switch votes, and switch votes now.
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On July 07 2009 11:00 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2009 10:38 L wrote:And for irony's sake: when mafia are routinely caught, members will show up to defend them. Or bury the post in which they were accused. Like you, pyrr and foolishness did when I posted my analysis of truthbringer? He hasn't shown up either. By your very own logic, you should realize that people who aren't in your little cabal should switch votes, and switch votes now. I don't think that anyone has defended truthbringer at all, it seemed to me that BC wanted to kill ydg over truthbringer. However if you're talking about us burying the posts then I can't deny that. You seem to think that I'm all friendly friendly with BC. Let me clarify some things for you. I am in no way associated with BC nor do I ever intend on it. If you look back in the thread I was yelling at his campaign the first day. I think BC is a terrible player and I cannot wait for MBH is revived so the two of you will shut up. Yes, I know I voted for him, but given the choice between the two of you I simply chose who I thought would be the lesser of two evils, and for the most part I feel it's better to vote than to abstain. And as for the ydg vote, I suspected him the first day and that's why I voted for him again (although I will admit I am also suspicious of TruthBringer). So please don't associate me with that idiot.
You didn't just vote for him. You were a tiebreaker vote. More than that, advocating a new lynch target is the exact same thing as defending someone as long as you can throw enough posts onto the thread to burn the clock down. At this point, since I've raised such a royal shitstorm about it, no one's going to bother trying to keep it under wraps, they're going to push another target instead.
So yeah, if you don't agree with the idiot, vote for truth bringer today and MBH will be revived tomorrow and we can all follow him then. Cool beans?
Rofl, man your insanely deluded. For wanting to hit a better target. You've admitted on your own that a single theme wraps up a character, yet you have a zealot/tank who needs to be partnered with someone and shoots nets and bombs things as your analysis on araav.
Again, your analysis on YDG isn't analysis. Your original reason for killing him is long gone, was innaccurate in the first place, and the rest of your reasons are brought up can be applied to you. What's more, you and I both agreed that you're more likely to be godfather than a random joe, so listening to blindly, as you'd wish us to, is lucridious.
I'm not going to waste any time on the rest of the post except to tell people to look at all the points BC ignored, and to look how he attacks me as a person instead of trying to deal with my points. Bit frantic, if you ask me.
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On July 07 2009 11:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Most of the other points were dealt with previously L, so stuff it. My original reason for killing YDG was based on previous behaviour in different games, which till now has been his trend, guess what, he's now shown red, your hopping on the save YDG bandwagon, malongo on yours, etc... more seems like the red team is jumping out on your side bud. as for araav? MY strongest clue was on the flowers growing in adversity, which more people have run with. Just where you linked multiple things to truthbringer, most likely only 1 of those is an actual link provided he is the mafia in question. As for me being more likely to be the godfather? no, and I've given reasons why it would make no sense for me to be mafia period based off what I've done, sorry bud, but you can call me GF or mafia, but you and I both know I'm not, my actions have done just that, yours however create chaos and disorder, which is What mafia would do, but as from your play last game I will admit you could just being a moron again.
First off, no, you ignored a LOT of shit. Its pretty obvious; you spent around half your post length talking about what happened last game, which we ended up winning :3.
Second, I'm not hopping on the save ydg bandwagon. I just want truthbringer killed. If MBH pops up tomorrow and we get a clue that points to him, I'll be the first to kill him. I just think there's a target that makes a LOT more sense right now. If he turns red, you look excessively bad, which gives you a reason to make unparagraphed frantic posts.
I mean, look at the difference between us; I'm not getting angry. I'm not telling you to stuff it. I'm just casually pointing out that you're shady. I haven't seen you 'do' anything for the town other than kill someone who might amount to our best player, either. We'd have known if MBH was red or not based on the night 1-2 mafia lists anyways, and we could have killed ANYONE to confirm. So what HAVE you done besides posted terrible analysis and started calling people names?
I honestly don't give a shit either way. If truthbringer flips green and MBH stays alive it won't matter anyways. What matters is if he dies, or if truthbringer flips red. The only way this risk/reward scenario doesn't work out is if truthbringer flips green and MBH dies, but he'll have a day to post his findings at that point regardless.
And now: More important matters.
MBH is going to be revived tonight unless mafia hit the priest. Between rain and fog, here's how mafia can kill MBH: Rain: takes 5 for an assured kill. Cannot suicide bomb him. Fog: Takes 3 for an assured kill. Suicide bomb makes putting both medics on him dangerous, and we can't co-ordinate.
If we want to keep MBH alive (and we might not if he's completed his analysis and has a full picture of what's going on, but I assume he won't at day 3 with so many people silent/inactive) we NEED rain. If we don't mind him being up for a single day, fog is a better option.
P.S. Stop spamming the thread.
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Double P.S. That's for day 3. Tonight fog is the best option unless our medics know who the priest is.
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I haven't actually done the math on 2 priests with 2 seperate protections each. I was operating under the assumption that they could only protect 2 targets.
The KP difference is probably close to .5 or .6 net difference, but the real gem in voting rain would be access to the vote lists tonight. The problem is that we need to organize the current vote in order to maximize the information we're getting and the current vote is tight. I doubt people will want to switch around.
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On July 08 2009 06:10 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2009 04:51 L wrote:
I haven't actually done the math on 2 priests with 2 seperate protections each. I was operating under the assumption that they could only protect 2 targets.
The KP difference is probably close to .5 or .6 net difference, but the real gem in voting rain would be access to the vote lists tonight. The problem is that we need to organize the current vote in order to maximize the information we're getting and the current vote is tight. I doubt people will want to switch around. I think you are wrong. The real gem is that every hit protected gives the angel a person to trust and mafia has to guess if they were blocked or they hit an angel themselves. With 5 hits and 4 protections is we need just 1 block to make it win/win and even in worst case we may be forcing mafia to stack hits. Rain is far better then fog.
We're going to have a confirmed innocent townie to share our information with as of tomorrow regardless, but yeah, I do think that's a very good point. The problem is that the likelyhood of a random selection of target and hits gives us a really REALLY low number of hits to work with. Fog reduces the chance that the mafia hit our priest from 20% unclued to 16% unclued, with corresponding priest chances of success being lower because of the potential to prot a mafia member.
If it makes you feel better, I voted rain after the 2 seperate targets per priest rule was clarified. If we can get at least 1 of those 4 on the priest, we can substantially improve our potential to win.
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On July 08 2009 10:08 redtooth wrote:
Guys, I feel like we missed an essential part of mafia analysis. That part being: why isn't ________ dead?
Prior to the Day post, there were 3 "prime" targets:
- L
- Heav0nEarth
- Pyrr
They were the biggest movers/shakers not named BC. Why would mafia play alphabet soup instead of trying to knock off the actually helpful people? The question is whether one of them is mafia or whether they are doing more harm to the town than good (Pyrr's clue analysis is often farfetched and L's friendly banters with BC tend to bury a lot of possibly informative posts) and mafia is just willing to sit back and let them do damage. I'm sure mafia is not incompetent enough to just kill off totally random people with no hints of blueness and no real usefulness than take a shot at the useful ones.
I'm willing to bet that one of the above are mafia.
Remember, the general consensus among the town was that one of the candidates for Emperor is mafia. Why did we totally drop that idea as soon as BC was elected? I believe L and Heav0n are prime suspects and should be watched very carefully. Truthbringer's color will likely reveal a lot but let's not take L and Heav0n (and to a way lesser extent Pyrr) off the suspect list yet.
I didn't drop that idea, it was central in my analysis of the timing of the votes and why people shouldn't be following BC.
Its pretty obvious that mafia was trying to cover the spread and hit targets that they figured wouldn't be protected in order to get a chance at sniping the priest and fucking us over, but I've been pretty certain I will die tomorrow or someone from mafia will make a point of it to repeatedly note that I'm not dead yet.
I was going to ask for an angel prot, but I wasn't sure if we were going to get rain or not, so I dunno lol.
All I can hope is that we get lucky and we land an angel prot tonight and that our priest doesn't die.
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I think I figured out the psychedelic thing behind our mafia factory go-ers
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Scamp, Chezinu, IloveKT, Scaramanga, Heav0nEarth. all have additional clues linking them to certain characters.
I should have gone to sleep like 2 hours ago and its going to be nearly impossible to shift the votes off one of the two players who are currently tied, so I'll write up exactly why later.
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On July 08 2009 13:45 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 08 2009 13:42 L wrote:
Scamp, Chezinu, IloveKT, Scaramanga, Heav0nEarth. all have additional clues linking them to certain characters.
I should have gone to sleep like 2 hours ago and its going to be nearly impossible to shift the votes off one of the two players who are currently tied, so I'll write up exactly why later.
Are you saying you believe our two main suspects are both innocent?
I'm pretty sure ydg is a tricode-like stupid townie, and I'm still pretty sure that TruthBringer is mafia. That said, I've found a bunch of interesting links to clues that I previously just plain couldn't figure out.
I also kinda made a breakthrough when I stopped assuming that the tall/lanky mafia was the one that shot plexa. Opens up a lot of possibilities for that character.
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On July 09 2009 04:40 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 09 2009 04:36 redtooth wrote:+ Show Spoiler [BC's Post] +On July 09 2009 03:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Mr. Julia, the mystery unraveled. It took looking seriously through profiles, and I found the bastard. First off Mr. Julia is none other than Pyrrhuloxia. Lets quote the characteristics of him and you will see. Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 03:42 Plexa wrote:There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out. Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two. Now, if you look at the entire passage for Mr.Julia It starts with him opening a safe, Him changing colour after burning himself Attacking fishball by jumping on him and beating him up Passing out Being held over his compatriots back and being psychedelic Now lets look at Pyrr’s profile. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Pyrrhuloxia found here one link in his profile is http://hegesonic.blogspot.com/from this blog you get this link embedded near the top of the first post Watch this video, IT is super important. It opens with the man in a beige shirt, black pants and red hair taking an elevator down to a locked door, which requires him entering a passcode to get in. He goes in, starts an experiment during a lightning storm with ends up blasting his lab, and himself into a new world where he swims to safety. HE is now wearing a black shirt and beige pants! A change in colour. And in the midst of the destruction of his lab, a red fireball followed by lightning seem to slam into his lab. Fire changing his colour He is captured and with the help of another prisoner escapes and gets a gun. This gun gets stronger the more you charge it (it also pulses a bit) Near the end he is saved by the prisoner who saves him who fights with another guard by jumping on him and beating him in the face. And in the end the main guy drags himself to a leaver and pulls it which turns his enemy into chunky bits (bloody pulp), and passes out. His fellow prisoner then puts him over his back, and hops onto a beasts back and flies away. As for being psychedelic this link is in pyrrs profile http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2zxf_to-here-knows-whenWhich is insanely trippy. This second link fits very well as plexa chose to separate the two areas with clues to mr Julia, like he was taking a clue from a new place. that's a lot of stuff on pyrr. however, just to play devil's advocate why do you think this mafia member was specifically named "Mr. Julia" instead of just another character. Also, after watching the whole 20 minute video, i did not see one instance of the pulsating of skin. when people got shot they usually insta-fried. another thing to note is that the three other mafia "instantly knew" why Mr. Julia was missing. that's not something mentioned in the video. athough the whole "bring him back home" thing could be stretched to fit the storyline. one thing to note about mr. julia is how he speaks. From the games I've played mafia are rarely quoted with real speech and "Look what you've done!" will likely play a key factor in us identifying either the mafia's behavior or the real "Mr. Julia's" personality. Except fishball is the one who spoke, not mr Julia. As for pulsing as i said, As his gun charges for stronger attacks, the gun pulses and grows in power. Edit: As for knowing instantly why he was missing. His fellow prisoner in the video looked behind him and saw a blown apart hole in the ground and knew instantly that he had fallen down it (hense missing) also at the end of the vid after the fight, the same fellow prisoner knew to go up the warp area to find him passed out.. It all fits, and with this much on him, it seems unlikely plexa would link all these clues in the same order as a video progression randomly.
Please stop being wrong:. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball.
PS. LOL WE'RE GOING TO HAVE FUN TOMORROW.
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I didn't. I was watching the video.
A lot of your connections are very forced, but I kinda thought Pyrr was probably mafia yesterday too. You got all of the colour changes wrong in terms of type; purple to black for the shirt is the real change for instance.The change in colour of his clothes was a very good catch, though. The red 'fireball' was actually just a bunch of accelerated particles (which is shown in the video). His gun doesn't pulse at all, and the guy at the end isnt' turned into bloody chunks, he's pretty much carbonized by a gigantic beam, not crushed.
The end where he does pass out and his friend puts him on the bird thing is pretty solid, though. Overall, the pulsating quality, the berserker lack of ability to stop, his name (perhaps not a clue) and his one spoken line are kinda unaccounted for.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THIS MATTERS: WHAT MATTERS IS THAT I SAW THIS GAME AGAIN, BECAUSE I USED TO PLAY IT AS A KID AND KEPT FUCKING DYING WHEN I SHOT THAT RESERVOIR. Completely off topic, but running and jumping in that game is fucking hard.
Also, no need to rush to any conclusions now because we're going to have a new day up tomorrow. Specially you, because you can't die tonight.
I just want to say that since Truthbringer flipped red, the clue I had on Chezinu is now gone. I googled his name and the first link was to a spanish rapper who was nick named the machine-gun rapper. If there's future clues involving a high bullet volume, he might still be in contention, but for now what I personally had on him is gone. It could be that we lucked out and the clues I linked to TruthBringer were actually misplaced, but we'll know more soon.
I do, however, still have quite a bit on the others, but I'm really tired right now, so i'm going to take a nap.
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You can save us the drama and just copy some IRC logs for us.
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The scaramanga clue makes no sense at all. He fits other clues, not mr julia.
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LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
When this game is over we're going to have a nice little post game chat about how good I am at mafia.
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lol 0 activity makes for boring games.
Not your fault plexa, was a well run game.
Cheers.
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On July 22 2009 15:20 Chezinu wrote:
Don''t forget that we lynch inactives at beginning to spell gosu, so we helped out.
Thanks, bro.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://files.getdropbox.com/u/51715/fogstorm.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i110.photobucket.com/albums/n99/chuiu/TLday.png)
