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Something I feel I should point out due to being Qatol's pawn... The decaf coffee bit is a long standing joke with the vets about decafchicken... so it wouldn't be a clue here as that person is not playing the game. Additionally this is related with the drumstick bit, as chicken drumsticks = legs (the dark meat). As these 'clues' are too easy to match with that person I wouldn't take them to note.
The suffrage of LTT due to blood loss and glass exploding seems to strike me as more of a clue worth noting. Secondly, as no one seems to have pointed it out and perhaps doesn't know, L is the main character in Death Note series, where a kid of a police chief can write any sort of death description down in a notebook and have it happen. Glass exploding inward seems to be something improbable short of magick or sound waves at the right frequency.. perhaps someone's profile would reflect this?
I also agree that the bit about the 'horn not heard in time' would reflect against someone's profile as it sounds like a metaphor or definition for something as well as pointing out how massively alone he was, perhaps even in a deserted street far from civilization. Possibly on a road trip.
As for the death of Pyrr, perhaps something that has to do with heights or a hotel/apartment building that would contain many floors and a balcony. Pushing people, creeping with a knife, and explosions(?) were what killed folks; so yes that gives at least three mafia clues overall.
P.S.
I am rushing out to drive to Tucson so I won't be back for 10 hours and am unable to look more into my suspicions about folks, but wanted to let everyone know that I won't be inactive and give at least some pointers along my thought lines.
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On May 19 2009 00:43 Shikyo wrote:I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping, though... it might be a bit too far-fetched. But of course, we have to keep this stuff in mind some clues come up later that might relate to these. Still, day 1 clues are day 1 clues, so please don't draw any strange conclusions off them. + Show Spoiler [very minor Death Note spoilers] +L actually isn't the main character of Death Note; Light is. And he's not a police officer, but rather a righteous/religious school boy.
Oh yes.. thanks.. been a couple years since I watched that... got the two confused.. L is the detective character, so bleh.. I guess that was all rather irrelevant of me xD
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Okay... so first thing I wish to do is apologize to the town for my inactivity due to my move from Alb to Tucson... It went way worse than planned and didn't get internet till late last night when a friend came over and we went to see Terminator.. by the time I got back I had to get to bed to get to work in the morning.
I'm working on a clue analysis post now.. so hang on :D
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Sooo... I have heard (from Qatol)/seen(ydg and crate) people suspecting me of being the tie person... several things I can easily point out that conflict with that assessment::
• Midori (and even myself) is a girl, female.. not a "salesman" or a "close the door in the man's face" -- and yes, Pyrr (and others that read it) knows this because I made the post in the signup thread that I am a 'she'
• Midori, character in Mai HiME, uses a halberd for her weapon... not a metal bar, and as such would more likely chop off or up parts of a victim's body than beat them with the handle end
Now then... my attempt at clue analysis (as I really just skimmed the posts since there's too many to read through.. and behavioral analysis seems useless to me in a newbie game::
On May 21 2009 11:45 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Jimtudor had no hard feelings about the election. With love for his town in his heart, he prepared to defend the people chosen to lead in this time of crisis. His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A (1)salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man (2)swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to (3)pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died.
Walking through the park (4)in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to (5)search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker (6)whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where (7)vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life.
(1) Just going off others observations that flashy would relate to the user picture if they had one... the ones that stand out to me as flashy images are BWdero with all the fancy lightning and Jayme with that cat picture. Using these two people and the other clues, we can see that BWdero is a strong man in his image and could easily pry open a door against the strength of a trained body guard. Additionally he reminds me of the blind guy from Electra and those comic series that has that staff to both protect himself and move around.
Alternatively we see many synonyms for 'flashy' in Ra.Xor.2's profile ( "brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous") I also point out, and with no means of offense, that it is a very religious post.. and I'm sure we all know about the sales people that go around trying to sell their religion door to door.
(2) Swift points back to our cat image fellow, Jayme.. about all I could find here.
(3) Covered in #1
(4) Best I get here is Ra.Xor.2's profile mentioning that it isn't darkness that we should fear but the light and hence why he wouldn't have a problem killing in the night.
(5) Jayme again.. as cats like to search around in plants and whatnot (ours certainly do when outside) for various things they can get a hold of. Additionally Phelix is the name of a cat in a cartoon, so this can apply.
(6) Two people stand out to me here.. wurm and teks. wurm mentions his towel which, when wet, makes a very good and painful whip but could never kill anyone, thus needing the stomps on the back of the neck to do so. (well more like flopping around violently?) teks has the duck hero with a rope (can make a good whip) and ducks feet are a large item in the image, which helps with the stomping bit.
(7) Here again, BWdero's profile pic looks like a guy that would stomp out your existence. Goin on profile icons.. ydg is a dragoon, vx70GTOJudgexv is a firebat?, Ra.Xor.2 is also a firebat?, l10f is a zealot, iLoveKTF is a firebat?, EsbenPM a marine, and chaoser a marine; which all stomp around the battle field in SC.
People I would count out of these clues...
JeeJee -- His quotes and profile have a lot of suggestions of wanting to kill people face to face.. none of the clues thus far have even come close to that.
Koopie -- Image of a girl (Peach) from Mario.. a princess.. uses an umbrella or mushrooms to attack (smash brothers) breaking both the man rule and whipping people.
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Oh I should mention, now that I've read my post over a few more times (bad habit), that I forgot to include Phelix for #2.
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Foolishness is getting too emo about this whole thing and flaming everyone... you should give it up already.. what's done is done, nothing can be done so move on and stfu already :/
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On May 23 2009 07:01 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2009 06:55 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Foolishness is getting too emo about this whole thing and flaming everyone... you should give it up already.. what's done is done, nothing can be done so move on and stfu already :/ Wow that's a good mentality to have. "This guy is clearly innocent but we should kill him anyways." According to Pyrry, there are 21 townspeople left. I don't know why it's not listed as 20 since you are about as helpful to the town as a mafia member that has come out (or, if I was crate, "stupid").
""You're the one that's useless considering all you do is sit here and argue with others and try to defend a condemned guy. You don't back it up with any hardcore evidence or proof to the contrary, nor do you have any sound logic. You simply insult others intelligence because there is no evidence that your measly intellect can gather about. Amazing you're smart enough to even get on the internet."" </foolishness speak>
Oh yes.. that sounds a lot like what you'd say huh... try being useful instead of insulting and wasting our time and the space of your posts, Foolishness. It sounds quite clear from the way you defend Jayme that you're either DT and know s/he's innocent or you're his/her lover... Either way... try showing proof instead of insults.
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Also, had you bothered to read my post for what it was and not your close minded ideals of love.. you'd notice that I pointed more towards Ra.Xor than Jayme.
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Yes.. totaling the clue marks I made in my second clue-analysis post...
Ra.Xor.2 -- 4
BWdero -- 3
Jayme -- 3
Phelix -- 2
chaoser, EsbenPM, iLoveKTF, l10f, Judge, teks, wurm, ydg -- 1
If I add in those made in the first post...
iLoveKTF goes to 2 or 3
So I hope you're not mafia, Foolish.. as I haven't a clue to match to you yet. But you're hell-a annoying!
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I have no idea what's going on with the double lynch other than the town wanting to get rid of as many mafia as possible as fast as possible... I got here after that whole debate must have gone through... I admit I only followed the crown in voting so I have no real idea other than that on the stem of its origins.
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Yes, it would have been nice if Jayme had talked back and responded to this bandwagon but I guess he gave up when we realized he was mafia?
And thanks teks for the reasoning, that helps make it make sense. However, what if we keep hitting town like we did last time and only help the mafia? Would not the double lynch also serve as a double edged sword in that matter. If we just wipe out ourselves without the mafia doing anything against us then we've already lost. I'd personally like to save double lynch for when the DT's can tell us who are guaranteed mafia... or at least the second double lynch.
I mean.. sacrificing one DT for two mafia would be worthwhile right? Then mafia loses hit power and we'll be able to cause them to react, perhaps enough out of character to nab the rest of them through behavior analysis. As by then, day 4 or 5 or so, we're going to be near losing if we don't get any mafia taken down.
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Wait... whut... way to go town.. I don't think I'm following any more of these so called bandwagons since you guys clearly don't know what is suspicious or not :/
Thinking I'll just vote for whomever I suspect the most from now on.. regardless of what others do.
That means Ra.Xor.22 and iLoveKTF if anyone cares.
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On May 23 2009 13:33 iLoveKTF wrote:
@ Shikyo's accusations: I'll address it later. Im watch SKT vs KTF atm.
@ Jayme's death. Why are you guys so mad/upset about him flipping green. Its not like you suggested anyone else.
Sorry KTF, but I happened to point out a bunch of people.. albeit after I'd followed everyone else's direction because I knew they were active when I had not been and would probably know better. Additionally, during the time for which I was once again active no one defended Jayme with any grave amount of evidence to the contrary of him being accused unjustly, or I'd have changed my vote to one I had suspected.
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Wow.. there's a lot of long posts popping up now!!
First... I want to thank teks for that well laid out clue analysis, and even noting things that I had not researched.. really nice job.. just be careful the mafia doesn't get too scared of you and remove you from assisting us :/
Second... chaoser's word choices in this post stood out to me as being distant from the town, as if he was a mafia himself:
I've been active, that's the most I can do. I've offered a timetable on how much time we have, I've helped with clue analysis, I've voted. But I'm not an elected official. As an elected official you're suppose to be the HEAD OF THE TOWN. YOU ARE IN A POSITION OF LEADERSHIP. That means thinking of a game plan, branching out and trying to start up a web. Try to get in touch with a mouth. We either had a vet hit once or a medic protecting someone that first day. Those people, if they have found a mouth, should obviously work with the elected officials. The officials should be actively trying to set up a web. If you had a DT working with you guys this lynch could have been prevented. Seriously, in every other game with elected roles, the elected roles have been the MOST active. You are leaders, it's about time you acted like one.
Personally.. I would have indicated more 'ownership' to the leaders being our leaders for the town.
Now I can't match and clues to him beyond what I've already done... but I've been trying to look at how different people use their grammar and find things that stand out..Of the others I've skimmed, he stood out the most..
Just my two-cents, take it as you please.
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Oh, to add to my previous post.. teks is using grammar consistent with ownership of the town and not mafia.. as the mafia to him is a distant object.
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So just to help explain the compressed air thing.. but not to directly point at anyone..
As many of us should know.. compressed air is useful for cleaning our computers of dust, and this air, if you've ever sprayed it from upside down is VERY cold. Cold things are easier to break and shatter, especially when it is a rapid temperature change.
Additionally, compressed air (and water even) are used as cutting tools in manufacturing. Sound waves are also a form of compressed air (as was previously mentioned) and so, either method could be used to shatter class. Also, both sound and compressed air can be directional, which would help the glass of the car windshield go inward.
Another item I haven't seen noted is that it is possible to use sound of one frequency to cancel out another sound, thus the sound directed at the windshield of the car could have muted out the sound coming from the horn until that originating sound dissipated.
However, and by no means do I mean any offense... but I don't think Pyrr is one to come up with something as elaborate as this.
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As I let teks know I'm baffled by what the mafia is doing, and altogether I think we are lucky they are picking such poor targets (not to imply that they weren't helpful to the town or anything) as far as the ability for them to win the game.
I do agree that we need to be really sure with our picks for this double lynching today, and as such I'm going to do a more careful analysis of the clues this time around, at least so far as I am able. I need to think straight, and for that I need food, I will return and make an educated post on the clues presented and hopefully link it back to others.
I hope that, without revealing anything, teks will help us stay away from lynching any blues and that his clue analysis can at least subtly point out the mafia so we can finally kill one.
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Skipping the paragraph related to zeks as teks admitted it was himself that took him out. Although this could be a damn good mafia trick, I don't believe our sheriff/mayor and he could both be mafia enough to get everyone to claim their role to him.
Deep underneath Fluidville, So no fek was searching the depths of the town's sewer system for traces of mafia activity. Holding a blazing torch aloft to find his way forward, he slowed as he (1)heard a sound like the shuffling of pages. He peered around the corner and saw an empty desk, then looked down to see the (2)blade that had pierced his rib cage from behind. So no fek tried to turn to at least get a glimpse of his killer, but he (3)couldn't muster the energy as the blade slipped back out of his chest.
EsbenPM had spent the first two days of the mafia invasion building a stockpile of weapons he would never use. Late during the second night, he was fiddling with the trigger locks on his various shotguns while chomping on salted peas. After dinner, he went out to his garage to check on the gun racks he had just painted. Once in his garage, he reached for the switch on the wall, but (4)lights wouldn't turn on. A sudden rush of fear came over him, and he wished he had brought one of his guns with him, even a sidearm. He thought about trying to sneak back into the house, but, instead, he felt his way to a crowbar leaned against the wall. As his eyes adjusted to the darkness, he could see the (5)outline of a man. EsbenPM charged and swung with the crowbar, but his (5.5)adversary shoved it from his hands, then (6)swung a board crushingly into the side of EsbenPM's head, killing him (7)instantly.
Koopie had spent years recreating her house into a scale model of Princess Peach's from Super Mario 64. She heard a knock at her giant, red front door.
"Hi, I'm here to install the cannon out front by the moat. Can you sign here please?"
The finishing touch had finally arrived, and Koopie went upstairs to watch the installation from behind the giant stained glass window that bore her image, as well as her favorite video game character's. The (8)cannon was plopped on its stone foundation, and it's barrel moved to point squarely at the face of the "princess". (9)"He couldn't possibly...." she thought, seconds before an artillery shell with a shark-like face blew Koopie and her home to smithereens.
(1) There are creatures that can make shuffling noises.. depending on the level of one's hearing. This would go with (I'm amused by this one) chaoser as he speaks of poker in his profile which deals with shuffling cards, he also mentions he's a "rekrul" which is a lurker backwards... and would use a blade that can slip in and out of the chest/body of its targets. Additionally we can point it to anyone that would have a relation to a reaver (or a shuffling worm)... this includes: JeeJee and wurm.
(2-3) Proceeding along the lines of SC images, l10f has an image of a zealot which uses its blades in an in and out motion to kill the target at chest level. I also wanted to link someone to the loss of energy from the victim, but I don't know who could do that.
(4) This clue most defiantly points to one of our ninja mafia that likes to kill in darkness, also mentions they'd be a good assassin for killing the breaker or electricity. Additionally we could see JeeJee in this with his public profile mentioning a lot about fear, which is a very likely effect of darkness and inability to bring back the light (same with Ra.Xor.2). I don't recall who the ninja and assassin folks were, but they are in these posts somewhere so someone else can help me out there :D.
(5-7) I see no point separating out these clues... they all seem to refer to a figure of a man and a strong person that gives you a quick death. Sticking these all together I remember quite clearly BWdero's image of a guy covered in lighting with a dark suit. This figure looks like he'd be well off in a dark environment as well as an obvious manly figure with the strength to shrug off an attack from a crowbar from a trained vigilante and then kill them instantly and swiftly (the lightning).
(8) Cannons are heavy! This means someone of great strength would be needed to casually plop something of that size down without a second thought. The only other member, besides BWdero yet again, that I feel could relate to being really strong is Judge as he mentions in his quote "berserker" which would be capable of such a feat.
(9) From this I get the feeling it was someone Koopie knew, and the only persons she knew from what I've heard is crate as the two of them seemed to be getting along well or whatever.
These are my thoughts for the current clues, so for now I'm placing my votes for BWdero and Ra.Xor.2 (wish I had three for chaoser as his behavioral slip still sticks out to me) unless I see something outstanding from someone else that would get me to change my vote direction.
Oh, and for quick convenience...
nick -- now (adding last time)
choaser -- 1 (2)
JeeJee -- 1 (1)
wurm -- 1 (2)
l10f -- 1 (2)
Ra.Xor.2 -- 1 (5)
BWdero -- 2 (5)
Judge -- 1 (2)
crate -- 1 (1) [[[However I fully believe crate to be medic so I won't count this for much]]]
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EDIT:: person* instead of persons in (9)
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On May 25 2009 09:47 Shikyo wrote:
SugiuraMidori, Black Bolt attacks with his voice, he doesn't really use any physical killing methods like punching or such.
Hmm, all right.. well I was just going based off of his image with the loads and loads of muscles xD
Confusing that a character would be so muscular if they only used their voice to kill :/
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On May 25 2009 19:55 Shikyo wrote:
...
And town lvp? Hmm that's a bit harsh? I think I was wrong about 2 people, both of whom were acting suspiciously, and the other one didn't even matter since mafia killed her off(which is stupid). On the other hand, I've been suggesting plans etc and doing my best keeping the town somewhat organized. We can miss even this much if we want to, we just really need to be able to hit two mafias today.
...
Just from this bit of text I can tell that Shikyo isn''t mafia, because why would s/he call her/himself stupid? Additionally s/he's using a lot of distance type grammar with regards to the mafia... I don't understand why so many people are voting for him/her.
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Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly.
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On May 26 2009 05:21 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly.
To continue this thought.. it would be advantageous for the mafia if they got rid of the sheriff/mayer through lynching as they'd have to kill the other body guard first in order to get to them. The ability of the mafia to start up a bandwagon to get rid of one of the most threatening voters in lynches is also something that is advantageous for them. Stopping someone with three votes would benefit them hugely in the ability to sway the lynch votes to their liking, as Shikyo mentioned they can do.
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On May 26 2009 05:50 SugiuraMidori wrote:Show nested quote +On May 26 2009 05:21 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Here's another thought... what if a mafia or two voted for Shikyo in order to start a bandwagon as our fellow townies so enjoy doing these past couple votes.
However, I don't agree with Shikyo on the group your votes in an organized way... as that's supporting a bandwagon xD I think if everyone voted for their highest suspect.. we'd get a very clear idea on the mafia pretty quickly. To continue this thought.. it would be advantageous for the mafia if they got rid of the sheriff/mayer through lynching as they'd have to kill the other body guard first in order to get to them. The ability of the mafia to start up a bandwagon to get rid of one of the most threatening voters in lynches is also something that is advantageous for them. Stopping someone with three votes would benefit them hugely in the ability to sway the lynch votes to their liking, as Shikyo mentioned they can do.
Unfortunately, the only few people I can match with my clues and those that voted for Shikyo are:
wurm
JeeJee
and the clues I've found for them have been suspect at best.. so I'm unsure just from that who I could define as a definite mafia at this point in time.
I really wish I could be of more help :/
I just know that the following people are innocent to me: crate, Shikyo, teks
Of course I won't include myself as that's for others to judge, not me.
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Sorry for like the billionth post in a row.. I'd love being able to edit to add content.. but oh well.. rules are rules.
Here is an analysis of votes made so far::
I can agree that with the rapid vote from Rayne against KTF he is suspect of mafia origins, however he only made the one vote and it was a rather legit one as we've had KTF in our sights for some time due to his sound pictures in his profile. This meaning that with Rayne's recent? inactivity he only remember's or knows about past mentions from the fellow analyzers.
I of course made votes quickly as I had already suspected the three before the day came and I was only given more clues to suspect these three:: Ra.Xor.2, chaoser, BWdero
Of course, due to the method of Rayne's vote we got a bandwagon hopped onto voting for him, which perhaps is fine since he's been rather inactive as of late I suppose, and is perhaps not helping the town at all, merely hurting us.
Looks like crate was the first to jump onto Shikyo, but I already know crate isn't mafia so that gets us nowhere. The rest, to best of my viewing abilities, looks like they just bandwagoned Shikyo due to being angry with him or some such.
The random votes on clazzi are also suspect, and since choaser is in there perhaps these folks are just being driven by a mafia? Alternatively, they believe KTF to be innocent and are voting against the ones that voted for him (likely).
The random vote for epicdoom is also suspect, probably just a confused mafia (l10f).
Shikyo voting for chaoser makes sense as I also highly suspect him (chaoser) of being red.
The current abstainers could simply be those that don't know who best to vote for and are waiting till the last moment or mafia waiting to sway the vote at the end.
As for the mass of double lynch votes.. that just makes sense if we want to win this against the mafia. The sooner we use the double lynches the (perhaps) better chance we have of getting rid of their KP.
As for me not voting for double lynch.. it isn't needed as we already have it.
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Hmm... this brings JeeJee out as suspect, perhaps he is mafia and wishes us to get rid of the Sheriff and his ability to sway the votes? It would seem that we need to vote for JeeJee as well at this rate.
Such an angry post is very unlike him. I also see that JeeJee likes these bandwagons and wants them to continue...
@JeeJee:: It is rather unlikely that the same thing that happened with Qatol would repeat itself so soon. Once again.. I see nothing in Shikyo's profile that can help align him with any of the kill-clues, and by now we have had eight kills performed by mafia; assuming that at least one set of clues is a double pointer to mafia as all mafia should have at least one clue pointed to them by now (Pidgeon Hole Principle) this makes it unlikely that Shikyo is suspect.
However, looking at your profile, and how you'd hate to see tears of angst in others.. it could match any of the clues as they've all been attacks from behind which makes it easy for you not to have seen their faces and any possible tears. Additionally all those bits about fear.. You're easily more suspect than Shikyo is.
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So have we a better few suspects to vote for, Foolish? If so i would like to know so that I might change one of my votes.. as I am still overly confident on BWdero matching too many of my clue-finds.
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Hmmm.. lovely.. I woke up after and didn't get to change my vote after all.. that's too bad. And yeh.. as pyrr said, there is a chance, however small (40%?), that we can still win this.
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LOL crate and foolish, the love twins.. are hilarious!
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Well that is good news, mafia only got two people.. which helps raise our chances of winning up significantly.
I'll try some clue analysis in the morning.. but for now..
-- the "long blonde hair" made me think of the guy with 'britney spears' in his profile == epicdoom (actually a good number of blondes in that vote image) or l10f.
-- the explosives sound like they're from a reaver.. so that's anyone with a reaver icon (JeeJee) or wurm.
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On May 27 2009 22:35 teks wrote:
That wasn't the point. The point was that he can't be mafia because:
1) Ra.Xor.2 tried to connect him with clues
2) He protected Shikyo when he easily could have bandwagoned him, killing off our green townie
green mayor? ;P
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So it seems tek and JeeJee did a monumental job on that Pawsom=Possum clue match.. so Not much I have to cover there...
How come Foolish is the only one voting for motbob though? I don't know who to believe now.. and I've done nothing but poorly analyze Pyrr's clues from day one (even Qatol and Ver laughed at me I heard)
This makes me wonder if Foolish is DT and did a rolecheck on motbob or something as no one else is believing his statements (and I just generally follow with teks since he has the list).
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On May 28 2009 12:14 Foolishness wrote:
Is this thread dead? There's roughly 2 posts per hour.
I think you've done a good job of scaring off all of the mafia from talking in addition to JeeJee scaring off the town from helping us kill the mafia.
The town needs to be organized again.. why are we lacking our leader Shikyo now.... I tried to PM him for guidance but he has yet to respond.
I don't understand Foolishes voting patterns now.. I know he hates bandwagons, and we've certainly got one going, but shouldn't the town agree on two potential mafia so that we can wrap this up with a win?
I know I've mostly been following how teks votes since that is generally safe since he knows the list, but isn't there also the fact that we still have two people that haven't role claimed? What about them?
teks could you at least give us numbers on how many greens have claimed so we can get an idea of the probability that one of those that haven't role claimed are mafia or not?
We need to be absolutely sure with our vote today or we could be proverbially hanging ourselves.
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On May 29 2009 11:45 Foolishness wrote:
....
What should happen is this:
tonight: town lynches l10f and pawsom: 2 mafia down.
Night: Assume mafia get two kills:
Tomorrow: lynch ydg and phelix
....
Uhm.. Foolish, however much I'd love being able to double lynch tomorrow as well.. we already used them all up (we only get the two).
So.... Here's my counts I'm doing this because I'm interested in the math (math minor, etc):
15 players left...
Possible Blues:
crate
Foolish
teks (powerless --> green)
?
?
JeeJee
Shikyo
Possible Greens:
choaser
clazz
Knutti
ILoveKTF
SugiuraMidori
motbob
Possible Reds: (based all on Foolish's post)
ydg
wurm
Phelix
l10f
Sadly this means::
We have 6 greens... one is miller, two are mafia, two are blue, one is green.
I'll hide all the calculations in a spoiler tag so as not to make a monumentally sized post and let it be collapsible.
+ Show Spoiler +
Now following with l10f's post...(sorta)
Format: Mafia/Town -- In order for mafia to win they must have greater numbers than town, equal is not a win for them.
This doesn't count Shikyo lasting till Day 10, if he does town wins "draws"
I am also making a huge assumption that Foolishes list is correct.. if it's not they win.
From here we have:
Now: 6/9
(1)
N4: 6/6 (assuming they get a full triple hit in)
D5: 5/6 (using Foolishes list we can get some hits)
N5: 5/3-4 (mafia gets two or three hits and has now won)
(1a)
Diff Scenario for (1)
N5: 5/5 (mafia only gets one hit)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia got two hits and won)
(1b)
Diff Scenario for (1a)
N6: 4/4 (mafia only gets one hit)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (mafia gets two hits to win)
(1c)
Diff Scenario for (1b)
N7: 3/3 (mafia gets only one hit)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP now)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky and get one -- hit non mafia = loss)
N9: 1/1 (they get another)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(2)
N4: 6/7 (assuming they only get two hits)
D5: 5/7 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (they get all two hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia now wins with two hits)
(2a)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/6 (they only get one hit)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits and win)
(2b)
Diff Scenario for (2a)
N6: 4/5 (they get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get another two)
D8: 2/3 (we get the last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky on one -- hit non mafia = loss)
N9: 1/1 (they get one more)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3)
N4: 6/8 (mafia only gets in one hit)
D5: 5/8 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (mafia gets three hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (they get two hits)
(3a)
Diff Scenario for (3)
N5: 5/6 (mafia gets two hits)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get another two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits)
(3b)
Diff Scenario for (3a)
N6: 4/5 (they only get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get two hits)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (they only have 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (we get lucky or else lose)
N9: 1/1 (they get a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3c)
Diff Scenario for (3b)
N7: 3/4 (they get one hit)
D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/3 (they get one -- 1KP)
D9: 1/3 (we get lucky and hit one)
N9: 1/2 (they get a hit)
D10: 0/2 (we find the last one)
(3d)
Diff Scenario for (3c)
D9: 1/2 (we miss and get our own)
N9: 1/1 (they get one)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3e)
Diff Scenario for (3)
N5: 5/7 (mafia only gets one hit)
D6: 4/7 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/5 (mafia gets two hits)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (mafia gets two)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss)
N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3f)
Diff Scenario for (3e)
N6: 4/6 (mafia gets one hit)
D7: 3/6 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (mafia has 2KP)
D8: 2/3 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/2 (non mafia hit = loss)
N9: 1/1 (mafia gets a hit)
D10: lol I got no clue how a draw works.. xD
(3g)
Diff Scenario for (3f)
N7: 3/4 (mafia only hits one)
D8: 2/4 (last on Foolishes list)
N8: 2/3 (mafia has 1KP)
D9: 1/3 (we have to get red or it's a draw like above)
Now assuming I hit ALL of the possibilities.. I might have missed one:
Total = 15 possibilities
Red: 12 abilities to win -- 80%
Green: 2 abilities to win -- 13%
Draw: 6 abilities to draw -- 40%
If Shikyo is around and not mafia (I don't think he is, others do), town wins draws.. that makes.. ~53% town win chance
Yes the numbers overlap.. didn't know how to count draws so they multi-counted.
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er.. 7 chances to draw.. (missed 3g)
so that's 46.7% chance to draw and if Shikyo is townie and lives till the end...60% chance town wins..
So what do you think this means?
1) Shikyo is mafia then we lose
2) Shikyo is green, dies ... we lose
3) Foolish is wrong on anything.. we lose
4) Mafia kills >2 people tonight.. we lose
I think I'm ready to give up on our town winning.
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It would seem JeeJee wants to lose this pretty badly.. and is trying to take out the town with him..
too bad it'd hurt us to have him lynched.
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13 players left...
Possible Blues:
crate
Foolish
teks (powerless --> green)
?
JeeJee
Shikyo
Possible Greens:
choaser
ILoveKTF
SugiuraMidori
motbob
Possible Reds: (based all on Foolish's post)
ydg
wurm
Phelix
l10f
Sadly this means::
We have 4 greens... one is miller, two are mafia, one is blue, one is green. (yes, there is overlap due to Sheriff and Mayor)
I'll hide all the calculations in a spoiler tag so as not to make a monumentally sized post and let it be collapsible.
+ Show Spoiler +
Now following with l10f's post...(sorta)
Format: Mafia/Town -- In order for mafia to win they must have greater numbers than town, equal is not a win for them.
This doesn't count Shikyo lasting till Day 10; if he does, town wins "draws" -- also assuming Shikyo is not red.
Additionally this doesn't account for inactivity, however I believe that to be of no matter in these counts as it would only cause events to accelerate.
I am also making a huge assumption that Foolishes list is correct.. if it's not they win.
From here we have:
Now: 6/7 -- One of my situation tree's left.
(2)
D5: 5/7 (Foolishes list)
N5: 5/5 (they get two hits)
D6: 4/5 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/3 (mafia now wins with two hits)
(2a)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/4 (they get all three hits)
(2b)
Diff Scenario for (2)
N5: 5/6 (they only get one hit)
D6: 4/6 (Foolishes list)
N6: 4/4 (they get two hits)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits and win)
(2x)
Diff Scenario for (2b)
N6: 4/4 (they only get one hit)
D7: 3/4 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/2 (they get two hits)
(2y)
Diff Scenario for (2x)
N7: 3/3 (they get one hit)
D8: 2/3 (last of Foolishes list)
N8: 2/2 .... leads to draw -- red + draw
(2c)
Diff Scenario for (2b)
N6: 4/5 (they get one hit)
D7: 3/5 (Foolishes list)
N7: 3/3 (they get another two)
D8: 2/3 (we get the last on Foolishes current list)
N8: 2/2 ... leads to draw -- red + draw
Now assuming I hit ALL of the possibilities.. I might have missed one:
Total = 8 possibilities
Red: 6 abilities to win -- 75%
Green: 0 abilities to win -- 0%
Draw: 2 abilities to draw -- 25%
If Shikyo is around and not mafia (I think he is, others don't), town wins draws.. that makes.. 25% town win chance
Yes the numbers overlap.. didn't know how to count draws so they multi-counted.
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beh.. so talked to Qatol some on rules...
2a above doesn't count..
thus we can remove a possibility and a win for mafia...woot!
7 possible
5 red = 71%
0 green = 0%
2 draw = 28.5%
so we get another 3% higher chance to win! xD
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On May 31 2009 03:50 crate wrote:
I said in the thread that I was a medic and I outright TOLD Midori I was a medic.
How did you not think I was a medic?
lmao
I was playing this much differently than any other game (or so I assume as I never read a single one of them)
I knew the following towards the end::
JeeJee/Foolish were DT
crate was medic
Shikyo was green
motbob was blue
My main goal was simply to kill people, once the math worked out in our favor I didn't care about hitting specifically anyone, and I was perhaps overly confident that if I was ever rolechecked I would be seen as a miller :D
I actually, and ask any other mafia about this, told them NOT to kill crate and Foolish and motbob.. my real goal was kill off people in hopes of nuking the body guards and then nuke Shikyo (sorry bud, but I considered you my play toy for votes :D ) as then it would be impossible for town to win.. medics or not.
Lemme finish reading more and I'll comment on those 
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Well, overall this was an amazingly fun game.. I guess I get too much enjoyment out of manipulating others. No surprise there as I am a girl, and we do enjoy doing that to you 'evil' men
I guess my 'shuffling' pages didn't go with shuffling cards in poker xD
I did get two clues right though:
The wurm kill with the towel whip (I have first hand experience using such a whip on neighbors and know what it can do). -- I may have only mentioned this to our mafia chat but I am too lazy to go look at my post.
I got the bit about Believing and Britney right as well..
but of course, most of my clue analysis was aimed to point out townies as primary and only have minor hints at the mafia. This way, if a mafia was ever hit and anyone looked back at my clue analysis they'd be more likely to suspect me as just a poor clue analyst (which I was indeed) and that I was able to match some right.. to a point, thus I was more likely miller than townie if checked.
Lastly, I was too lazy to use Google or any other such source beyond profiles (I had every single one open in a tab in Chrome) for my analysis, despite that one time saying I would. Additionally, despite Qatol telling me that profile icons were never used in clue analysis since they can change during the game, I continued to use them as such in an effort to drive the town insane.
How I played this game::
I took everything neutrally, as if I was neither townie nor mafia but had the extra knowledge of knowing who mafia were. I tried to make clue posts in a neutral sense that I didn't care which side won. I abused the hell out of grammar pronouns (we they us them our fellow) in order to maintain a look of innocent townie. I also used this to try to get a couple townies lynched, as well as shape up our mafia.
I made, in my opinion, three obvious mistakes that pointed me out as mafia but luckily no one caught them:: saying that I was sick and tired of how bad town was doing and wanting to do my own thing (which I think is what Qatol and Ver caught); not that anyone checked it, but I missed an entire decision tree in my statistical chances analysis leading to lesser mafia chance to win (wasn't intended but could be seen as an effort to force a town forfeit); lastly, I once again gave up on the town being able to win, although it was amidst the others doing the same, I had never expressed this feeling before so it was quite out of character.
On Midori, ~my love~ xD
She was also a high school history professor at the age of 17 (Tell me of someone you know that is that young and a teacher xD) Additionally in Mai-HiME, Midori becomes an archaeologist at the end of the series and goes off to excavate with her professor; and although I'm sure Pyrr had no intentions of this.. sewers can refer to the underground tunnels in the Egyptian pyramids.
I was surprised that Pyrr didn't use more of Midori's tactic's and antics in clues as well as have me kill more, but perhaps he was enjoying my antics too much to ruin me that early on xD. I like how Qatol and everyone was so sure of it being a 'green tie' as if they didn't want to read the wording correctly (trust me that I read every clue post three times before I made an effort to analyze them). Yes, midori does mean green in Japanese, but that would have been far too obvious a clue that early on, and I'm sure other hosts can agree to that. Also, yes, I made quite the effort of defending myself using gender-pronouns (maybe this defense is what Qatol and Ver caught?) which, by the way, should be avoided as much as possible in these games due to mixed-gender players.
EDIT::: I'm allowed to edit now~~
Since it just came up with Qatol... NO, I did not try to match people with clues as a way to frame anyone. What I did was take a 'clue' and look at every profile in turn (hence all the tabs) and list off those players.. and I did that every single time.. as I figured that was the easiest method/approach.
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EPT
