|
On May 24 2009 05:24 crate wrote: one thing quick: I think it is very unlikely Pyrry would use zeks's name in a clue when he has some good info in his profile to form a clue from. The "winning isn't everything quote" can be attributed to either Vince Lombardi or to Red Sanders and there are tons of places to go from there.
I'm not sure about compressed air causing a windshield to shatter either.
However I haven't had time to think about what zeks has posted yet so I am not jumping to any conclusions right away. Clue analysis is not the main point of concern about the analysis right now, it's the behavior.
|
Yeah I didn't even mention any clues leading to zeks in my post because frankly, if they are any, they are way too weak to base anything on.
|
|
So just to help explain the compressed air thing.. but not to directly point at anyone..
As many of us should know.. compressed air is useful for cleaning our computers of dust, and this air, if you've ever sprayed it from upside down is VERY cold. Cold things are easier to break and shatter, especially when it is a rapid temperature change.
Additionally, compressed air (and water even) are used as cutting tools in manufacturing. Sound waves are also a form of compressed air (as was previously mentioned) and so, either method could be used to shatter class. Also, both sound and compressed air can be directional, which would help the glass of the car windshield go inward.
Another item I haven't seen noted is that it is possible to use sound of one frequency to cancel out another sound, thus the sound directed at the windshield of the car could have muted out the sound coming from the horn until that originating sound dissipated.
However, and by no means do I mean any offense... but I don't think Pyrr is one to come up with something as elaborate as this.
|
On May 23 2009 23:34 teks wrote:OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that. I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles. Mafia A and B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D: + Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible. So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still). In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues.
Hey, I did something like this a few pages back :p, but I was just listing names that might have some relevance, and I was trying to bias the inactives since I remember softer and Jimtudor mentioned a lot about inactives, so I thought mafia was trying to hide in inactivity.
Anyways, on mafia A, interesting catch on chaoser, but I firmly believe that this refers to omG.[RaYnE]. First, it strongly seems like a vampire, as a night-stalker, especially since there are lots of references to the night (though this may be because it's night haha). Also, BloodRayne does indeed have a whip, though it is like a harpoon; "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayne_(Bloodrayne)" "In addition to her ability to jump more than 20 feet into the air and running unnaturally fast, she is also strong enough to fire assualt rifles in each hand at different targets and pull her foes towards her using a wrist-mounted harpoon in order to feed on their blood." Also, the text specifically said "neck," which again can refer to vampires. I suppose it can refer to chaoser as a ninja, but the only clue I see that relates refers to the stealth of the ninja, and so I think the clues better fit Rayne.
My attempt at behavior analysis (I'm no good), Rayne is inactive. One vote away from being modkilled, and Rayne posts in the thread "On May 23 2009 20:37 omG.[RaYnE] wrote: mind fuck " This seems to indicate that Rayne, though "inactive" votingwise, is still paying attention in the thread. Chaoser, on the other hand, seems to genuinely be helping the town. But again, we shall see when day comes which of the two the clues better stack up against, or maybe it's even someone else.
On mafia C, I think the connection to zeks is kind of weak. But between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think the clues are more stacked towards BWdero (though only one clue). I first thought that this mafia was a bomber, but with the reference to sound, "a horn that would not be heard in time," I can see how it refers to sound waves. So between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think that BWdero is a better fit. First, his character is a superhero that can emit large sonic bursts; thus he does not have to be present to use it. This can be shown in that the mafioso is not there when LTT dies, perhaps he is far away, whispering? Again, letting LTT die from the blood loss can seem to indicate that he is the hero, since the hero doesn't seem to have any killing power besides sonic booms. iLoveKTF, on the other hand, only has sound waves in his picture. I suppose you can generalize the same as BWdero, but with only soundwaves, we can't really tell. Again, this depends on if this figure appears again the next day, as he only appears once.
On mafia D, sounds good, but as I said before, it could also be epicdoom, as epic doom music is characterized as "a style of doom metal that is characterized primarily by its vocal style; vocalists typically employ clean, operatic and choral singing. Lyrics and imagery are typically inspired by fantasy or mythology, while the drumming is performed in a bombastic fashion." "clean vocals" can refer to the civility (word?) of the man, and bombastic drumming can refer to the flashiness of the tie. But of the salesman, I don't know, I guess we have to wait and see if he turns up again.
|
Wombo Combo Plan
K vigis.
Here's what we can do. If you're already intent on hitting a target (there's certainly no lack of suspects: raxor2, pawsom, ilovektf, omg[rayne], zeks, etc) you may do the following: publicly claim your hit before night post. First of all, mafia cannot stop you from making the hit, even if they kill you, hit goes through. Secondly, if you live through the night *and* your target flips mafia, we know you're innocent (because even if you got lucky and managed to maphack your way into the future as a mafiosi, the actual person who made the hit would speak up)
self-correcting "flaws" with this plan: you want to, and end up hitting a non-mafia. that's great, but we can't and won't do anything from there, no matter if you are an actual vigi or a mafia posing as one. make sure to have a good target. flaw fixed.
Another "flaw": mafia claiming as vigi. that's great, but they can't hit mafia, so they can do one of 2 things: target a non-red, hit them, and then we do nothing or they can claim the hit failed. The hit can fail because of a medic or a vet. The medic conundrum: since you're also claiming your target, the medics could know to not protect it, thus if it fails, it's only because of a vet. How can mafia abuse this? Consider that mafia have a person they really want to kill, X. They can have a random mafia claim as vigi, say they want to hit X so that medics do not prot him and have a free shot. A simple solution is to make sure the target makes sense from the town's point of view. another flaw fixed
Final "flaw": vigi dying during the night. well yeah, this one's kind of a given, therefore it will be up to the medics to decide whether to prot the vigi claimor. This could be used by mafia as a ploy to keep the medics busy during the night while they hit some good targets (and one random one as per the 'claim')
And the ultimate "flaw". Vigi claims, vigi hits red, vigi lives through night, we're convinced of vigi's innocence, we pm vigi the roles and the vigi .. turns out to be an idiot. So please don't be an idiot.
|
On May 24 2009 07:13 JeeJee wrote: Wombo Combo Plan
K vigis. Here's what we can do. If you're already intent on hitting a target (there's certainly no lack of suspects: raxor2, pawsom, ilovektf, omg[rayne], zeks, etc) you may do the following: publicly claim your hit before night post. First of all, mafia cannot stop you from making the hit, even if they kill you, hit goes through. Secondly, if you live through the night *and* your target flips mafia, we know you're innocent (because even if you got lucky and managed to maphack your way into the future as a mafiosi, the actual person who made the hit would speak up) self-correcting "flaws" with this plan: you want to, and end up hitting a non-mafia. that's great, but we can't and won't do anything from there, no matter if you are an actual vigi or a mafia posing as one. make sure to have a good target. flaw fixed. Another "flaw": mafia claiming as vigi. that's great, but they can't hit mafia, so they can do one of 2 things: target a non-red, hit them, and then we do nothing or they can claim the hit failed. The hit can fail because of a medic or a vet. The medic conundrum: since you're also claiming your target, the medics could know to not protect it, thus if it fails, it's only because of a vet. How can mafia abuse this? Consider that mafia have a person they really want to kill, X. They can have a random mafia claim as vigi, say they want to hit X so that medics do not prot him and have a free shot. A simple solution is to make sure the target makes sense from the town's point of view. another flaw fixed Final "flaw": vigi dying during the night. well yeah, this one's kind of a given, therefore it will be up to the medics to decide whether to prot the vigi claimor. This could be used by mafia as a ploy to keep the medics busy during the night while they hit some good targets (and one random one as per the 'claim') And the ultimate "flaw". Vigi claims, vigi hits red, vigi lives through night, we're convinced of vigi's innocence, we pm vigi the roles and the vigi .. turns out to be an idiot. So please don't be an idiot.
So where you at?
|
I am going to preface this by saying it is possibly the worst-organized thing I have ever written and I will (after dinner) be correcting that by coming up with some coherent thoughts. However there are a couple important questions I am asking in this post. I will be coloring those blue for convenience. Thank you.
@Qatol: nice rule.
On May 23 2009 16:49 crate wrote:Got a better sixth?
teks wrote: What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He sent me the same PM.
I want to know how many people he PM'd and what their responses were.
+ Show Spoiler +(my response) My guess is one of the first three candidates for office is mafia.
Also Pawsom is probably just really dumb, but if he's not really dumb he's probably mafia.
----------------------------------------- Original Message: who do you suspect as mafia based on behaviour?
teks wrote: What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. DTs looking for town is bad in general.... DTs want to find blues or (ideally) reds.
teks: the problem I have with your analysis is that you seem to postulate that zeks is GF, then take that as an axiom in your posts. "Look at how all this information makes sense if zeks is GF."
Since you bring up lack of contributions so much teks--give me a list of every single person who you felt made significant contributions on day 1. And day 2, if you feel up to it. If you want me to do the same, I'll go look back through the topic for you and do it.
teks wrote: but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. I agree here. Especially since, as far as I know, zeks hasn't roleclaimed blue. Rolechecking someone who roleclaims towny...?
I admit I only skimmed over anything involving DTs earlier and I regret doing that now.
Shikyo wrote: And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. You didn't feel like pointing this out earlier? I'll go back over zeks's posts myself when I get time; I didn't get a chance to check TL till, what, 4 PM my time today?
Shikyo wrote: I had a fascinating PM conversation with zeks before. I want the timestamps on that convo before I look at it any more. I have no idea when that took place.
Shikyo I have a hard time reading your style and I am going to say that right now. I am trying to read past the emotions and get to your actual arguments but I am not finding it easy.
I mention this because I manage to get completely lost here:
Shikyo wrote: Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
[snip]
So let's see. Jimtudor couldn't have been ignored and he needed to be a part of the mediclist? If you remember, people indeed were really suspicious about him and I could have EASILY just said that he was too suspicious. Man, didn't I say this somewhere before? What do you mean no choice?
So wait a second! You say that I had no choice but to put Jimtudor on my list. But just a second ago you were implying that it was suspicious for me to have put him on the list? That I might want to have a mixed list? Does this make any sense to anyone else?
I will re-read this and try to make sense of it. Right now I am getting lost in your words.
zeks wrote: Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. I don't buy it at all. That second sentence is laughable, unless you really believe that the only suspects possible are you and (perhaps) Shikyo. Just yesterday (real-time) I was decrying the lack of any discussion.
Your first paragraph reminds me very much of this, by the way:
Adaptability for when the improbable but inevitable happens. Lose nothing unnecessarily. Chinese triangles.
zeks wrote: Why would a GF kill people you suspect? http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM
We'll see how applicable this is later.
zeks wrote: It's [the medic list] just a stupid list of who posts the most And do you have a better criterion, in this game that has a bare handful of people saying anything?
teks wrote: As I said early in the thread, I would think that the mafia would take time to organize before running for mayor. Personally I think that any timing after Shikyo's entry is too late for a mafia entry. My support here is about as good as yours, which is to say there isn't really any.
Joining the race late is a great way to not get elected, especially in a game with people so willing to vote early and not change votes. If you doubt that our game is proceeding like that, take a look at the voting records from the past two days.
teks wrote: I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content". That was me. I stand by my initial assessment of Shikyo's day 1 posting.
teks wrote: I don't want to be lynched. I was stating that not as an ultimatum, but to say that I believe in my case, and to state that I am indeed risking myself by accusing you, someone who actually fights back, as opposed to the inactive ones we have been lynching. imo this doesn't help your case at all. You're using, basically, an emotional appeal here. I am going to assume for a moment that teks is town-aligned and that he wants to win.
Case 1: teks is right Argument doesn't matter since we don't have to call him on it. The only possible case would be if teks roleclaimed DT and said that he checked if a certain clue pointed to zeks and got a yes, but he's been denying this. In that case we'd have to lynch teks first anyway to prove he's DT and town (and teks) still loses.
Case 2: teks is wrong What does town gain from lynching teks? Nothing. He's suggesting the town hurt itself if he's wrong. In fact town loses by lynching teks and not a better mafia candidate.
Now let's look at teks being mafia and wanting to win.
Case 1: teks is right and zeks = GF Seems unlikely to me, might be a WIFOM ploy but why sac your GF to keep a regular red safe?
Case 1a: teks is wrong but zeks = regular mafia If teks is GF this might make sense since we can't rolecheck him, but still seems an unlikely-to-help ploy. If teks is regular mafia this doesn't make sense to me.
Case 2: teks is wrong Now the town does gain from lynching teks.
Not a single one of these cases has teks benefiting from calling to be lynched (except maybe the one where teks is GF, but I think that's so unlikely there's basically zero chance it's true). Just ignore his [teks's] call to be lynched please, he's not thinking soundly here. The only cases where this declaration possibly makes any logical (as opposed to emotional) sense are the cases where both zeks and teks are mafia. I don't think they're both that stupid right now.
Don't be swayed by emotional arguments people, that's bad for the town.
teks please don't make stupid emotional appeals that make no sense logically. I don't want to pick them apart so easily, there's no sport in it.
Foolishness wrote: Although he has not directly said it, Shikyo is basically saying "one of the candidates for election has to be mafia. Well, it's not me, I don't think it's JeeJee. JimTudor is dead. Oh! Must be zeks!" Are you forgetting? iLoveKTF and one other person you didn't mention (oh wait I remember now it's YOU) also ran for election. Jimmy's dead so he's cleared. Shikyo and JeeJee can't be cleared. Foolishness, iLoveKTF, and zeks are still alive and unless a DT r/c'd them tonight none have been rolechecked.
Shikyo wrote: but I think I'm going to post some more accurate directions for the medics later on. Ah! I get it! You're going to tell them to protect me tonight!
...
btw mafia please kill zeks tonight he won't be protected.
Shikyo wrote: This post was written before zeks ran for office, meaning that he knew about my plan [rolecheck the losers] all along. hey bro, just so no one forgets, I'd like to point out the timing of when you said we should rolecheck losers.
you were the runaway favorite to win sherrif at the time
Shikyo wrote: think about this scenario: you're doing it wrong again by assuming he's the gf then making his actions fit your assumption look at his actions and make them prove your assertion
---
To add to my previous comment on clues:
so no fek wrote: I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off. This is the wrong way to go about clue analysis. Find stuff you think might be a clue, then find who it might link to. Do not pick a player then go find which clues might link to that player since you're going in with the assumption that that player is red.
I realize this discussion is not predicated on clues
Shikyo wrote: So, why would the sound not be heard in time? Well, assuming the air compressor, the wind it creates is really strong, since it could shatter the glass. Isn't it only reasonable to believe that it would be able to half the traveling of the sound almost completely? Assuming "half" is supposed to be "halt," the answer here is simply no. I'm no expert on the matter either, but I do know how sound travels; there's no way that an air compressor would be able to halt sound--especially when you consider that the air compressor would not affect the sound traveling in the opposite direction.
This clue linkage looks extraordinarily forced to me.
|
I have not yet read JeeJee's posts btw, will do that now.
|
On May 24 2009 06:58 ydg wrote:Show nested quote +On May 23 2009 23:34 teks wrote:OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that. I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles. Mafia A and B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now. Mafia A:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +Day 1 Post: Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death. Day 2 Post: Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen - Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip - Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker Fitting suspects: - chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.
- omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.
- teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.
Conclusion so farIf we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method. A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown. Mafia B:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +Day 1 Post
Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow. Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life. Notes: - A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading) - Wielding a knife and possibly a whip All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that. I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth. My suspect list: - omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.
- chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.
Mafia C:+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +Day 1 Post:
In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time. Notes: - Something or someone able to shatter a windshield - Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities? Suspect list:- zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.
- BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.
- iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.
Mafia D: + Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze. Day 2 Post
His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died. Notes:- A civilized man who uses the doorbell. - At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information. - Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him. - Wielding a metal bar Suspect list: [list] [*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume. [*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible. So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still). In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues. Hey, I did something like this a few pages back :p, but I was just listing names that might have some relevance, and I was trying to bias the inactives since I remember softer and Jimtudor mentioned a lot about inactives, so I thought mafia was trying to hide in inactivity. Anyways, on mafia A, interesting catch on chaoser, but I firmly believe that this refers to omG.[RaYnE]. First, it strongly seems like a vampire, as a night-stalker, especially since there are lots of references to the night (though this may be because it's night haha). Also, BloodRayne does indeed have a whip, though it is like a harpoon; "http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayne_(Bloodrayne)" "In addition to her ability to jump more than 20 feet into the air and running unnaturally fast, she is also strong enough to fire assualt rifles in each hand at different targets and pull her foes towards her using a wrist-mounted harpoon in order to feed on their blood." Also, the text specifically said "neck," which again can refer to vampires. I suppose it can refer to chaoser as a ninja, but the only clue I see that relates refers to the stealth of the ninja, and so I think the clues better fit Rayne. My attempt at behavior analysis (I'm no good), Rayne is inactive. One vote away from being modkilled, and Rayne posts in the thread " " This seems to indicate that Rayne, though "inactive" votingwise, is still paying attention in the thread. Chaoser, on the other hand, seems to genuinely be helping the town. But again, we shall see when day comes which of the two the clues better stack up against, or maybe it's even someone else. On mafia C, I think the connection to zeks is kind of weak. But between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think the clues are more stacked towards BWdero (though only one clue). I first thought that this mafia was a bomber, but with the reference to sound, "a horn that would not be heard in time," I can see how it refers to sound waves. So between BWdero and iLoveKTF, I think that BWdero is a better fit. First, his character is a superhero that can emit large sonic bursts; thus he does not have to be present to use it. This can be shown in that the mafioso is not there when LTT dies, perhaps he is far away, whispering? Again, letting LTT die from the blood loss can seem to indicate that he is the hero, since the hero doesn't seem to have any killing power besides sonic booms. iLoveKTF, on the other hand, only has sound waves in his picture. I suppose you can generalize the same as BWdero, but with only soundwaves, we can't really tell. Again, this depends on if this figure appears again the next day, as he only appears once. On mafia D, sounds good, but as I said before, it could also be epicdoom, as epic doom music is characterized as "a style of doom metal that is characterized primarily by its vocal style; vocalists typically employ clean, operatic and choral singing. Lyrics and imagery are typically inspired by fantasy or mythology, while the drumming is performed in a bombastic fashion." "clean vocals" can refer to the civility (word?) of the man, and bombastic drumming can refer to the flashiness of the tie. But of the salesman, I don't know, I guess we have to wait and see if he turns up again.
Thanks for the response
I basically agree with you on everything, except the part on epicdoom. I'm not saying he's innocent, but I don't think the clues are THAT complicated that you need to be able to convert a flashy tie to bombastic drumming. But I guess epicdoom could also apply to the windshield shatter, again using sound, atleast I think that's more plausible than him being the salesman. Also, the salesman could possibly link to iLoveKTF, trying to convince Jimtudor why KTF is the best / pitch KTF kind-of. Just a thought.
On all of the cases, we basically have to have more clues before we can come to conclusions. This is merely the start of our clue analysis, on day 3 and 4 we will be able to connect the clues and build more solid profiles on all of our suspects, some of them will be easier than others. I'm pretty positive that we will be able to get a pretty good clue connection to atleast one mafia on day 3.
I also think the zeks link to Mafia C is a stretch. I just mentioned it because it is a possibility. I have most faith in BWdero being the link there, but again we need more clues before accusing anyone.
And nice information on BloodRayne, a vampire being night active is something I should have thought of :p. Also the focus on the neck area. Nice catch. I'm not really sure on the harpoon and whip though. It seems like a stretch.
So which suspect do you think the Day 2 kill on Softer was? A or B? Or someone new?
|
Edit: oh wow two nice and long posts were made while I was writing. I'll read and respond.
|
my post is anything but nice lmao
|
oh and I am not yet taking a stance on whether zeks is likely mafia/GF or not. I need more time to figure that one out.
I am going to come out and ask for medic protection tonight since I really don't want to die.
|
5/22 06:34
first PM in that conversation. The time for the last one I already mentioned.
How come I'm doing it wrong by first assuming he was the GF? O_o What am I supposed to do then? It makes no sense if he's green. I'd just label him as an idiot.
|
Well then look at the actions, show why it makes no sense if he's green or blue, and THEN you can conclude that he's red.
Do not start at "he's red so all these actions make sense look i'll show you"
|
I could probably twist actions from most anyone in the topic to make them look red if I start at "he's red"
That's why you go the other way: it's much harder to fake it unless you get someone playing on the town side who legitimately isn't helping the town at all.
|
Oh my god.
"(teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?
----------------------------------------- (teks) Original Message: atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: who are you suspecting behaviour wise?"
It doesn't make sense for him to not respond to this if he's green or blue, maybe tell who he suspects himself.
"On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early."
It doesn't make sense to be against lynching inactives if you're green or blue.
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense.
I think I've already pointed these out?
|
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. Not about what minor mistakes the people who accuse him make.
et cetera
|
OK. You bring up some valid questions, crate. I'll try to respond to those who regard me.
crate wrote: He sent me the same PM.
I want to know how many people he PM'd and what their responses were.
That doesn't come as a surprise to me. I also want to know who else was PM'ed.
crate wrote: teks: the problem I have with your analysis is that you seem to postulate that zeks is GF, then take that as an axiom in your posts. "Look at how all this information makes sense if zeks is GF."
Yes. This is how I did my behavior analysis, reading through his posts and trying to see if they would make sense in a mafia point of view. As Shikyo says, how else was I supposed to do it? Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie?
crate wrote: Since you bring up lack of contributions so much teks--give me a list of every single person who you felt made significant contributions on day 1. And day 2, if you feel up to it. If you want me to do the same, I'll go look back through the topic for you and do it. This is a good point. At Day one, it is very hard to make a valid analysis on anything, and basically the only contribution that can be made is making plans and teaching new players any methods we could use etc. I'm sure 90% of the posts are utter crap, including my own. But atleast I feel that I have contributed this night.
To answer your question directly though, no I'm not going to go through the thread and look for significant contributions. I've been skimming through the thread and writing analysis all day, and I feel that I've had my share for today. If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't. I guess I was just expecting more from an experienced player? Atleast on day 2.
crate wrote:Show nested quote + teks wrote: I was just remembering someone using the same phrase I was going to use, "posting a lot of fluff and no real content". That was me. I stand by my initial assessment of Shikyo's day 1 posting.
I'm not going to argue with you on that. I think we all posted a lot of fluff on those days, and I can't be arsed to go through Shikyo's posts right now.
crate wrote: Not a single one of these cases has teks benefiting from calling to be lynched (except maybe the one where teks is GF, but I think that's so unlikely there's basically zero chance it's true).
You're right, it doesn't benefit anyone.
crate wrote: Just ignore his [teks's] call to be lynched please, he's not thinking soundly here. The only cases where this declaration possibly makes any logical (as opposed to emotional) sense are the cases where both zeks and teks are mafia. I don't think they're both that stupid right now.
Don't be swayed by emotional arguments people, that's bad for the town.
teks please don't make stupid emotional appeals that make no sense logically. I don't want to pick them apart so easily, there's no sport in it.
Yes. Please ignore that call. You are right, it was an emotional argument (if you can even call it an argument), which I shouldn't have said at all. I was trying to convey that I knew about the consequences which could come if I was wrong, and that I would understand people being suspicious of me if that were to be the case. The town wouldn't gain anything on lynching me, and neither will I, so I too want to retract that statement.
|
Shikyo wrote: It doesn't make sense for him to not respond to this if he's green or blue, maybe tell who he suspects himself.
Your pronoun use here makes me want to cry. I literally have no idea who "him" is here since there is no antecedent. (I assume it's zeks?)
I don't see why you think that makes no sense if zeks is green or blue. Could you explain for me? Zeks was fishing for information and got what he wanted. I don't see teks asking a question in that last PM, so I don't see the necessity to respond.
Shikyo wrote: In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough. 1/31; seems fairly good odds to me. However, he did suggest himself as the target--makes no sense to roleclaim towny then call a DT to r/c you (waste of a check--you really want blues/reds); that makes him either blue, red, or GF posing as blue.
What do you think the chances are the GF would pose as blue instead of green?
zeks, are you a vanilla townie?
You can choose to respond or not, but right now I think this is an interesting question to ask. There really isn't a right answer to it at this point, is there?
Shikyo wrote: If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own. Ok. So everyone who has talked about a medic list but hasn't proposed one is mafia?
Lynch JeeJee, he's clearly mafia (pretty sure he didn't suggest one; I haven't checked to be positive though)
Shikyo wrote: If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense. Ok. Once I can figure out your reasoning there I'll let you know what I think about it.
Shikyo wrote: Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. Not about what minor mistakes the people who accuse him make. I'll re-read his arguments and let you know what I think when I have a coherent opinion.
"et cetera" lol
I will admit, when I saw the way you two (teks/Shikyo) presented your arguments I didn't read into them as carefully as I could have. Why bother when your entire argument is predicated on the assumption you're trying to prove? If you two had posited your arguments in the fashion I think is more effective--"here are zeks's actions, here's why he can't be green/blue, here's why he can't be a vanilla mafia, hence he is GF"--I would have read them much more carefully.
teks wrote: Wouldn't it be the same if I turned it around? Why would he neglect mentioning a veteran hit as a possibility for the third hit? Why would he encourage the medics not to "deviate from the plan"? Why would he ask me who I think are suspicious without even requiring any reasoning for it? Why would he wiff away the GF argument in his DT rolecheck plan like it was nothing? Why would he not mention that vigi's cant hit on night one when he talked about the confirmed townie? Well for one thing, you would get me to actually read your arguments carefully if you had done it the other way 'round
The other thing--mafia would love to do it backwards. They know who they don't want to implicate, so they'll pick out someone who looks maybe a bit suspicious, then they'll go this way--let's assume that player is mafia; now how do I prove it? Is acting like mafia a good thing for townies?
teks wrote: If you are implying that I used zeks' lack of contribution as an argument for being GF, I only did that because I, earlier in the thread, had the feeling that he was doing a lot for the town, but when I read through the posts, I saw that he really didn't.
Did you think this before you postulated zeks as GF, or after The correct answer is, of course, "before," and I'd be surprised if you don't say that (but see WIFOM). If the real answer is "after"--think about how that supports my assertion that you went about this backward.
You don't have to answer this--we don't get any info from your answer right now.
Anyway I do have dinner soon. I will be back later. Hopefully I'll be able to construct my thoughts before the end of this night.
|
|
|
|