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Pyrry's Mafia Game - GG - Page 28

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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iLoveKT
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Philippines3615 Posts
May 23 2009 10:57 GMT
#541
What? Ok so I might be a little misunderstood. First thing I said was thinking of getting modkilled because I cant be around for the next 2 days, but I changed my mind. And when I said "mafia kill me now or lynch me tomorrow", i didnt mean i am requesting them to do so. I was challenging them to do so. Sorry for all the confusion.

Anyway this will be my last post for the next 2 days. Cya by then.
Woo Jung Ho
omG.[RaYnE]
Profile Joined October 2007
Philippines100 Posts
May 23 2009 11:37 GMT
#542
mind fuck
omG.[RaYnE] ---> rayne_ph :D
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 12:21 GMT
#543
On May 23 2009 19:57 iLoveKTF wrote:
What? Ok so I might be a little misunderstood. First thing I said was thinking of getting modkilled because I cant be around for the next 2 days, but I changed my mind. And when I said "mafia kill me now or lynch me tomorrow", i didnt mean i am requesting them to do so. I was challenging them to do so. Sorry for all the confusion.

Anyway this will be my last post for the next 2 days. Cya by then.

Just so you know, you have like 64 more hours until you have to vote for the first time. You have to miss voting twice to be modkilled. It's convenient, though. You don't have to defend yourself since you won't be around.

On May 23 2009 19:18 teks wrote:
Ok, it's finger pointing time. I've been working on a case for a while now, I didn't want to say anything until I had gathered more information, so please bear with me as I bring up old quotes and old arguments to try to form a behavior pattern of the suspect.

I accuse zeks of being the Godfather. I think that he is the person who is organizing the mafia kills, which would also make sense seeing how he is one of the most active persons in the thread. I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page. I'm going to focus on behavior, because the voting patterns up till now are too weak to rely on, and there doesn't seem to be any blatantly obvious clues pointing to zeks (which would explain why he is taking risks). If needed be, I can bring these two points in to strengthen my case later on, as I do think there is SOME material to work with in those two departments as well.

WARNING! This post is going to be lengthy, but know that I worked alot on this, so I ask that you atleast skim through it to see if I'm onto something here. It COULD be vital for the town's gameplan.

+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +
The first piece of information I want to convey is two PM's I received from zeks before the night to day 2. These are unedited, except that I added a (nick) in front of each PM so it's easier to see who's saying what. This should, like any PM history, be read from the bottom to the top.

+ Show Spoiler [PM conversation] +

(teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.

-----------------------------------------
(zeks) Original Message:
do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?

-----------------------------------------
(teks) Original Message:
atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.

-----------------------------------------
(zeks) Original Message:
who are you suspecting behaviour wise?

At first, I was kind of wondering why he was asking me this all of a sudden, we hadn't talked any at all in PM's prior to this. But I had nothing to hide, I layed out who I suspected, he got the information, and I never heard from him again. What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He was asking around (it would be entirely possible that more of you received the same kind of PM's) to find out who the medics were least likely to be protecting.

So in my case, I was suspicious of Foolishness, Phelix, softer and Jimtudor. Then what happens? Oh yeah, softer and Jimtudor dies. Yes, my suspicions were WAY off, but that's not the case here. If I was going to go on a stretch and assume that I was the only one he talked to, I would think that either Foolishness or Phelix got hit too that night, but it was either blocked by one of them being a veteran, or a medic. I'm thinking the first. Or maybe they just chose someone else randomly in order to not bring up too much suspicion, or they stacked hit's on one of the targets (Jimtudor?).

Either way, two of my suspects died that night. I'm going to go over his posts now to point out any inconsistencies, irregularities or possible mafia behavior.

+ Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 1] +
zeks' first post was made on page 8.

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early.


Oh what do you know, he's against lynching an inactive. What a surprise. What I have been seeing with new players is that his scenario doesn't fit at all. The inactive ones are, as I see it, usually townies who are disappointed in not getting a role, and feeling that they don't have anything to do, so they get bored with it. The new players who end up with a blue role tend to be more eager and active because they feel that they mean something.

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.


I probably should have gone over his behavior in previous games before making this post, but I haven't. I'm sorry. If anyone wants to do that go right ahead. Either way, that sure isn't how he's playing now. I'm assuming this means that he has changed attitude, and no longer feels that this is the best way to play a blue role, if that is the case I would think that he, as a useful town aligned person, would encourage the new blue players to stand up for themselves, not just explaining why they would be inactive. The other possibility is of course, that he isn't a blue.

Then, in his first post, he also made his statement that he would be running for mayor. His plans are not anything spectacular, but there are tidbits that can be discussed here, for instance the fact that he is opposing the vigi plan to get a confirmed townie:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.


So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.

Next, he is opposed to getting a confirmed townie through medic protection, too. He states the following:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy.


It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.

So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.

c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.


What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. Now, who could this trustable person be.. Hmm.. Maybe he should just nominate himself, since he was the one coming with the idea, that won't be suspicious at all, right? We'll get back to this later, since this is a story that continues later in the thread. What is interesting is that he mentions this in his very first post in the thread. Clearly focusing on what he thinks is the best idea, since the chance of landing on the godfather is slim.

That makes the end of his election speech. The rest of it was the same things the other candidates promised, let's kill all red and use double lynches blabla.

So the thread goes on, and zeks encourages people to read his election speech. He also helps the town by making an inactive list, but this is something literally anyone can do, so I'm getting the feeling that he did this to show the town that he can contribute, and to warrant voting on him. If he was the mafia candidate, why did he not get elected, or why did he not get close? I think that the mafia either waited to see if he could draw any votes (which he tried desperately by several times asking people to read his platform), or they threw him a few votes to try to start a bandwagon. Neither of the cases worked out for them, so they basically abandoned ship when it failed, that's why you didn't see him getting 6 mafia votes.

I still believe that one of the election candidates were mafia, and since Jimtudor turned blue, and I so far have no reason to suspect Shikyo or JeeJee, this all adds up.


+ Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 2] +
On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.


Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.

After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.

Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.

On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan.

Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.

On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:
We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:

a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.
b) Someone got saved.
- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight.


No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.

Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.

Dun dun dun! This brings us to my punchline. The continuation of his DT rolecheck plan.

+ Show Spoiler [DT Rolecheck Plan] +


On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.

But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.

And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)

Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!

Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!


This is going to be the end of my behavior analysis. I could go on by talking about his consistent denial of the vigi plan, which at the moment is one of the best plans we got, but this post is lengthy enough as is.


So that's it. By sharing my case with you, I ask that zeks is removed from the medic list while we decide whether or not my case is strong enough. Hopefully we can come to an agreement before the night is over, and if needed be, he can be placed back on the list.

I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?


First of all, being wrong about someone doesn't instantly make you mafia. It's the reasoning behind the accusation that matters. If the reasoning makes sense and you're not behaving suspiciously otherwise, I don't think it'd mean that you're mafia. See L vs Ace and Ver in Mafia VIII. Although L was wrong, his reasoning made sense(even if he was maybe too aggressive), even if he came to the wrong conclusion.


I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.

I had a fascinating PM conversation with zeks before. It's read from bottom to top. I edited the names in.

+ Show Spoiler +

Shikyo:
I see.
-----------------------------------------
zeks:
Do you really need to me to write it all out for you?

Any person to come out with that plan is bound to be aware of the GF scenario. How naive would it be for a GF to stick his head onto a guillotine with a brand new plan, deviating from everything else the town has agreed upon (vigi/medic plans).

And all for what? 1 DT? Look at the town: everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done. People aren't going to start roleclaiming to each other even if I manage to successfully initiate and actually hit a red, because all of you are so suspicious of EVERY LITTLE THING you'd probably think I sacrificed a red to get the trust of the whole town.

Names are flying everywhere. Someone is orchestrating this. I think you and I both have a general idea of who it probably is.

-----------------------------------------
Shikyo:
What? I said "and?"

-----------------------------------------
zeks:
If you think so then pitch your case to the town to take me off the medic list.

-----------------------------------------
Shikyo:
I know that. And?

-----------------------------------------
zeks:
Because I mentioned the possibility of myself being the GF before all of you did.

-----------------------------------------
Shikyo:
Why is that?

-----------------------------------------
zeks:
The dt-rolecheck plan? Maybe you should be reading my posts.

-----------------------------------------
Shikyo:
Read the thread.

-----------------------------------------
zeks:
Why is that?

-----------------------------------------
Shikyo:
I think you are the Godfather.


Maybe he thought that the dt-rolecheck plan was the only reason I thought that? It's weird how he addressed only that, and thinks that it removes my suspicions if he says that he might be the GF, but we just have to trust him that he isn't.


After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?

I also love how he's basically evading the accusations. Pretty sneaky!

"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".

zeks Re: Mafia 5/22 09:04

All right, now we have a time. I wonder what zeks has posted after that. He would obviously have tried to fix the fingerpointing, right?

Now a little bit of chit-chatting, contributing nothing, then he stops posting for a while.

Then, comes the only set of posts he has posted afterwards.


On May 22 2009 21:43 zeks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote:
Great post Judge.

vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:

One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.


Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?

1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct
2) He was hit by the mafia

How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?

"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"

Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.


Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?

Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.

So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.

I assume this isn't "pointing fingers", right? Since he was so strongly against it.

Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen. I'd like to comment on his posts again with a little bit of more detail.

On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote:
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.

So let's see. Jimtudor couldn't have been ignored and he needed to be a part of the mediclist? If you remember, people indeed were really suspicious about him and I could have EASILY just said that he was too suspicious. Man, didn't I say this somewhere before? What do you mean no choice?

So wait a second! You say that I had no choice but to put Jimtudor on my list. But just a second ago you were implying that it was suspicious for me to have put him on the list? That I might want to have a mixed list? Does this make any sense to anyone else?

On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.



This is the last thing he has posted. You can try to quote... okay. So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.

So where was the lack of fingerpointing? ^_^ If you really are a townie, why haven't you been contributing anything at all, besides being suspicious about the 2 people we lynched... who were innocent?

I wonder when you start doing something useful for the town.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
May 23 2009 12:28 GMT
#544
On May 23 2009 19:18 teks wrote:
Ok, it's finger pointing time. I've been working on a case for a while now, I didn't want to say anything until I had gathered more information, so please bear with me as I bring up old quotes and old arguments to try to form a behavior pattern of the suspect.

I accuse zeks of being the Godfather. I think that he is the person who is organizing the mafia kills, which would also make sense seeing how he is one of the most active persons in the thread. I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page. I'm going to focus on behavior, because the voting patterns up till now are too weak to rely on, and there doesn't seem to be any blatantly obvious clues pointing to zeks (which would explain why he is taking risks). If needed be, I can bring these two points in to strengthen my case later on, as I do think there is SOME material to work with in those two departments as well.

WARNING! This post is going to be lengthy, but know that I worked alot on this, so I ask that you atleast skim through it to see if I'm onto something here. It COULD be vital for the town's gameplan.

+ Show Spoiler [Behavior] +
The first piece of information I want to convey is two PM's I received from zeks before the night to day 2. These are unedited, except that I added a (nick) in front of each PM so it's easier to see who's saying what. This should, like any PM history, be read from the bottom to the top.

+ Show Spoiler [PM conversation] +

(teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.

-----------------------------------------
(zeks) Original Message:
do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?

-----------------------------------------
(teks) Original Message:
atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.

-----------------------------------------
(zeks) Original Message:
who are you suspecting behaviour wise?

At first, I was kind of wondering why he was asking me this all of a sudden, we hadn't talked any at all in PM's prior to this. But I had nothing to hide, I layed out who I suspected, he got the information, and I never heard from him again. What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He was asking around (it would be entirely possible that more of you received the same kind of PM's) to find out who the medics were least likely to be protecting.

So in my case, I was suspicious of Foolishness, Phelix, softer and Jimtudor. Then what happens? Oh yeah, softer and Jimtudor dies. Yes, my suspicions were WAY off, but that's not the case here. If I was going to go on a stretch and assume that I was the only one he talked to, I would think that either Foolishness or Phelix got hit too that night, but it was either blocked by one of them being a veteran, or a medic. I'm thinking the first. Or maybe they just chose someone else randomly in order to not bring up too much suspicion, or they stacked hit's on one of the targets (Jimtudor?).

Either way, two of my suspects died that night. I'm going to go over his posts now to point out any inconsistencies, irregularities or possible mafia behavior.

+ Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 1] +
zeks' first post was made on page 8.

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early.


Oh what do you know, he's against lynching an inactive. What a surprise. What I have been seeing with new players is that his scenario doesn't fit at all. The inactive ones are, as I see it, usually townies who are disappointed in not getting a role, and feeling that they don't have anything to do, so they get bored with it. The new players who end up with a blue role tend to be more eager and active because they feel that they mean something.

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.


I probably should have gone over his behavior in previous games before making this post, but I haven't. I'm sorry. If anyone wants to do that go right ahead. Either way, that sure isn't how he's playing now. I'm assuming this means that he has changed attitude, and no longer feels that this is the best way to play a blue role, if that is the case I would think that he, as a useful town aligned person, would encourage the new blue players to stand up for themselves, not just explaining why they would be inactive. The other possibility is of course, that he isn't a blue.

Then, in his first post, he also made his statement that he would be running for mayor. His plans are not anything spectacular, but there are tidbits that can be discussed here, for instance the fact that he is opposing the vigi plan to get a confirmed townie:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.


So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.

Next, he is opposed to getting a confirmed townie through medic protection, too. He states the following:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy.


It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.

So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:

On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote:
In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.

c) Detective role-check
Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.


What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. Now, who could this trustable person be.. Hmm.. Maybe he should just nominate himself, since he was the one coming with the idea, that won't be suspicious at all, right? We'll get back to this later, since this is a story that continues later in the thread. What is interesting is that he mentions this in his very first post in the thread. Clearly focusing on what he thinks is the best idea, since the chance of landing on the godfather is slim.

That makes the end of his election speech. The rest of it was the same things the other candidates promised, let's kill all red and use double lynches blabla.

So the thread goes on, and zeks encourages people to read his election speech. He also helps the town by making an inactive list, but this is something literally anyone can do, so I'm getting the feeling that he did this to show the town that he can contribute, and to warrant voting on him. If he was the mafia candidate, why did he not get elected, or why did he not get close? I think that the mafia either waited to see if he could draw any votes (which he tried desperately by several times asking people to read his platform), or they threw him a few votes to try to start a bandwagon. Neither of the cases worked out for them, so they basically abandoned ship when it failed, that's why you didn't see him getting 6 mafia votes.

I still believe that one of the election candidates were mafia, and since Jimtudor turned blue, and I so far have no reason to suspect Shikyo or JeeJee, this all adds up.


+ Show Spoiler [Quotes Part 2] +
On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote:
To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.


Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.

After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.

Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.

On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote:
I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan.

Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.

On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote:
We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:

a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim.
b) Someone got saved.
- I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight.


No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.

Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.

Dun dun dun! This brings us to my punchline. The continuation of his DT rolecheck plan.

+ Show Spoiler [DT Rolecheck Plan] +


On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote:
I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.

But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.

And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)

Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!

Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!


This is going to be the end of my behavior analysis. I could go on by talking about his consistent denial of the vigi plan, which at the moment is one of the best plans we got, but this post is lengthy enough as is.


So that's it. By sharing my case with you, I ask that zeks is removed from the medic list while we decide whether or not my case is strong enough. Hopefully we can come to an agreement before the night is over, and if needed be, he can be placed back on the list.

I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?


I think this is a very solid behavioral analysis, and I honestly hope that it turns out to be accurate in the end. I haven't really contributed too much, because I'm terrible at both clue analysis, and behavioral analysis, however, I'd like to add that there are currently 5 mafia kills (including the mods), and if you were to assume that it's 1 mafia per kill (which is likely, given that people die at the same time in some of the posts) and Pyrry is rotating through the mafia (meaning that a mafia won't get a second clue until every other mafia has a clue), then there are currently clues pointing at 5/7 mafia.

That means that if Zeks is mafia, there's a very very good chance that there's already a clue pointed at him. So, I checked his profile. Not really much there. He's from Canada, has "@ University of Waterloo", and states that winning is the only thing. I couldn't match any of those to any of the clues, so I took the next step and googled his name. And there we go.

http://www.zeks.com/


Compressed Air solutions.

Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us.


So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.
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teks
Profile Joined March 2008
Norway263 Posts
May 23 2009 12:51 GMT
#545
On May 23 2009 21:28 So no fek wrote:
I think this is a very solid behavioral analysis, and I honestly hope that it turns out to be accurate in the end. I haven't really contributed too much, because I'm terrible at both clue analysis, and behavioral analysis, however, I'd like to add that there are currently 5 mafia kills (including the mods), and if you were to assume that it's 1 mafia per kill (which is likely, given that people die at the same time in some of the posts) and Pyrry is rotating through the mafia (meaning that a mafia won't get a second clue until every other mafia has a clue), then there are currently clues pointing at 5/7 mafia.

That means that if Zeks is mafia, there's a very very good chance that there's already a clue pointed at him. So, I checked his profile. Not really much there. He's from Canada, has "@ University of Waterloo", and states that winning is the only thing. I couldn't match any of those to any of the clues, so I took the next step and googled his name. And there we go.

http://www.zeks.com/


Compressed Air solutions.

Show nested quote +
Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us.


So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.


Yeah if I were to link possible clues to zeks that would be the one I would choose as well. I also did some research on Waterloo / Napoleon but I couldn't really find any matches. If zeks is involved in any of these clues, I'd think it'd be the compressed air one.

What I think of the clues so far is that there are 5 clues pointing to 4 persons. I also think that zeks isn't pointed to in the clues because of the risk he took on the DT rolecheck plan, and I guess it could be seen as plausible for Pyrr to clue to the mafia first, then the GF? I dunno.

I will make a post of my clue analysis soon, but it's really hard to fill in the blanks before day 3, so I don't really have all that much, and I am in no way sure that any of it is any good. Which is why I'm focusing on behavior patterns atm. I sure hope the next day post gives us some clues we can use to cross referance.
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 12:52 GMT
#546
On May 23 2009 21:28 So no fek wrote:
http://www.zeks.com/


Compressed Air solutions.

Show nested quote +
Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us.


So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.


Know what? This is actually the exact same clue I considered. It indeed does seem pretty easy, but you forgot to mention something about it.


"sounding a horn that would not be heard in time."

Now, I'm not an expert on the subject, so I google'd a little. I found, among others, this: http://www.wisegeek.com/why-does-sound-travel-better-with-the-wind.htm

You can google about it some more if you don't trust that source.

So, why would the sound not be heard in time? Well, assuming the air compressor, the wind it creates is really strong, since it could shatter the glass. Isn't it only reasonable to believe that it would be able to half the traveling of the sound almost completely?

I'm not a master of physics, so I still can't be sure about that. It seems to make sense, though, and it fits.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 12:54 GMT
#547
halt* stupid typo.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
May 23 2009 12:56 GMT
#548
That's a good point, and one that I honestly hadn't even thought of.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 12:58 GMT
#549
On May 23 2009 21:56 So no fek wrote:
That's a good point, and one that I honestly hadn't even thought of.

I doubt he would mention the "wouldn't be heard in time" or whatever if it didn't mean anything. It might just be a red herring, or whatever they say, but since it fits with the same clue...
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
May 23 2009 13:01 GMT
#550
Yeah, Zeks is definitely a good candidate for our first lynch tomorrow, both clue wise and behavior wise.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 13:15 GMT
#551
Also, I now would like to say that zeks isn't at least on my medic list anymore. If he indeed is mafia, the reason for his removal is self-explanatory.

Even if he by some miracle is green or blue, his play has made no sense, and he hasn't been contributing to the town in any way. He doesn't deserve the medic protection and shouldn't hog our medics from some actually useful players who might need the protection more. The same thing goes for iLoveKTF, by the way.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-23 13:37:40
May 23 2009 13:17 GMT
#552

Show nested quote +
On May 23 2009 14:38 chaoser wrote:
guys, come on...really? I really have two problems with this town.
1)Elected Officials, DO SOMETHING. YOU ARE PROTECTED UNLESS BODYGUARDS DIE. That means you have way more freedom than anyone else. mafia can't target you so take more risks. really? clue analysis? we need a town web set up asap!

2) DTs, medics, mouths, get in touch with THE ELECTED, i'm not saying role claim, i mean say you're the mouth or that you have info or something. It's better than us sitting around not doing anything!


Something more than having pointed out about 5 mafia suspects and the reasoning behind everything? What have you done?


I've been active, that's the most I can do. I've offered a timetable on how much time we have, I've helped with clue analysis, I've voted. But I'm not an elected official. As an elected official you're suppose to be the HEAD OF THE TOWN. YOU ARE IN A POSITION OF LEADERSHIP. That means thinking of a game plan, branching out and trying to start up a web. Try to get in touch with a mouth. We either had a vet hit once or a medic protecting someone that first day. Those people, if they have found a mouth, should obviously work with the elected officials. The officials should be actively trying to set up a web. If you had a DT working with you guys this lynch could have been prevented. Seriously, in every other game with elected roles, the elected roles have been the MOST active. You are leaders, it's about time you acted like one.
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
May 23 2009 13:34 GMT
#553
o_o I haven't been doing anything? Wow, dude. That post seems really random at this point in time.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
May 23 2009 13:47 GMT
#554
I was writing that up before I updated my page and saw everything being said. It's just frustrating coming up empty on two lynches, having no real plan, and having the mafia kill three people (i'mma count the modkill as a mafia kill and so they are on schedule which gives us four/five more days)
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
May 23 2009 13:51 GMT
#555
Town is in utter chaos. Massive finger pointing at almost every suspect possible. Reading things out of context. Drawing implications out of the air from the slightest behaviour changes. All assumptions without any solid evidence. We're basically unable to agree on anything. Someone comes up with a long post and boom I'm now a suspect. But I guess Teks you've done a damn good job on me.

Teks, do you think you're so good that if I were a GF I'd pick people off your list? Your analysis has barely any good content and usually you're just restating other peoples points. Why would a GF kill people you suspect? If anything if I were a GF I'd leave them alive because I know they are green, and if you were town of course you'd be in shit trying to figure out if they're green and I could kill off others.

Why would I think you're a medic? Wouldn't I ask who do you trust rather than who do you suspect? It's true I've been asking about people's suspicions, I won't lie. I asked you guys a question, you answered it. If you asked me a question, I answered it too. Teks you never asked me anything, and you're suspicious so why do I have to keep the PMs going?

So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.


Okay, I admit my mistake there. I still disagree with the vigi plan because of how hard it is to orchestrate it. And yes if you were wondering, in past mafia's people had names. No I am not against a confirmed townie, because I suggested the DT-Rolecheck idea, and I listed pros and cons for all 3 ideas.

It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.


Here is what I said:
...so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
Page 8.

I was in support of the medic plan, in fact I wanted that plan first before using my DT-rolecheck plan.

...pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.

So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:


Don't contradict yourself.

As for my pitch for mayor: If I were mafia do you know how dangerous it would be for me to run for mayor that late? First I'd be sticking my head out for suspect and second I'm probably not going to win. If I had pleaded my case for mayor earlier (around when JeeJee or Shikyo did theirs) I think I'd have a legit shot for a spot. I ran for mayor so town can see other options: I never expected to win at all. How could I win when I had my election speech as first post? I wasn't involved until page 8 when things have already boiled up.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quotes part 2:

Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.

After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.

Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Why don't you find me someone who suggested lynching an inactive AND with clues pointing to them? People were agreeing on me because I came up with the idea, while people like you only thought of lynching based on inactivity OR clues.

I'm placed on all the medic lists because I am trusted by the town. My suggestion for therapy was a reply to BWDero when he wanted a name out there - so I gave him one. And Shikyo was pretty quick to support me without any reason.

I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.


Trying to protect Shikyo while attacking me at the same time?

Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.


The plan being the medic list?

No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.

Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.


I didn't lie. I will admit to this mistake that I missed the veteran possibility. If this is enough to warrant me guilty then so be it, but that was just my misunderstanding.

Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!

Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!


What have chaoser, Judge, Shikyo figured out that I didn't say in my own plan? Do tell. I was the first person to bring up the godfather possibility.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't give a FLAMING FUCK if I'm removed from the medic list. The medic list meant shit from day 1. It's just a stupid list of who posts the most (see the correlation of most posts -> medic list? I do too!). I didn't feel ANY safer than I would be not on the medic list.

If you look at teks arguments with quotes on me, he chooses the stuff he wants to quote, and leaves out the rest because it contradicts his arguments. Read my posts again and you'll see different than what he has posed.

I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?


Lol and the cherry on top: the ultimatum to everyone. By the time you get lynched it'd be night 4, and if you are TOWN like you say you are, then we'd probably have hit 0 mafia till then, which is pretty much game over.

What are you trying to pull an iloveKTF? Except you're smarter than him I admit. You're not going to go down that easily right? You're going to "take responsibility" on a failed lynch, rather than requesting a mod kill.

You're just trying to make it seem like you have nothing to lose, putting your life on the line, empathizing with the majority of the town.

That ends my rebuttal for teks. If you want me to cover anything I didn't, by all means feel free to call me out again. I will be following up with my clue analysis later on today or tomorrow, and I assure you, mine will be WAY MORE spectacular than what teks has told you.


"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
teks
Profile Joined March 2008
Norway263 Posts
May 23 2009 14:05 GMT
#556
wow it honestly didn't seem as you was going to reply I'll answer you after I'm done with my clue analysis. I'm also looking forward to seeing yours.
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
May 23 2009 14:26 GMT
#557
Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction.


I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.


Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything.

This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death.


After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?


If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT.


"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".


I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning.

Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
was a reply to
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
.



Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.

So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.


When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are".

Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen.


You want to play with "time"? Sure, two can play that game.

May 22 2009 21:43 -
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?


May 22 2009 23:06 -
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.


Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me.

I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.


On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote:
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.

I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.

I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.


So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.


See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy.

I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions.

If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position.


"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
zeks
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Canada1068 Posts
May 23 2009 14:30 GMT
#558
Btw, Shikyo and teks you're both from europe and I'm from Canada, so if I'm not active when you're not active please understand that I'm in a totally different timezone.

As for the medic list tonight, I have no comments about how you medics are going to use it for your guidelines of protection, but I believe this is a very important article that should be posted again.

On May 21 2009 04:19 JeeJee wrote:
There seems to be a bit of confusion over the purpose of the medic list. I'll just try to clear it up, so we're all on the same page.

The medic list is not:
-A list of people for medics to protect
-A list of people for medics to ignore
-A list of people for mafia to hit
-A list of people for mafia to ignore

The medic list is:
-A list of people deemed important to the town.

What this effectively means is that medics should be considering protecting them, and mafia should be considering hitting them. Obviously mafia can (and likely will) hit one or more people that are not on the list. Our medics, obviously, can also protect one or more people that are not on the list. This is where mindgames begin and I hope our medics will be able to outsmart the mafia in this respect.


Also, in case you were wondering, here's what I'm up to: spending a boatload of time on behavior analysis for mafia viii >_>. No but seriously, I'm mostly waiting for the day post at this point. I have a few things I would like to say, but writing them before daybreak serves no purpose to the town (and may unfavorably alter the mafia kill list).

I guess for now I can end with:
Send in your night actions to Pyrr!



"Two roads diverged in a wood, and I-- I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference."
teks
Profile Joined March 2008
Norway263 Posts
May 23 2009 14:33 GMT
#559
You're right zeks, there are many people here from North America, so I find that there's also ALOT for me to catch up on after I've slept, since that's primetime for you guys

And yeah that post from JeeJee was great.
teks
Profile Joined March 2008
Norway263 Posts
May 23 2009 14:34 GMT
#560
OK, I'm going to post my clue analysis now. I feel that I learned a lot from MTF's clue analysis, So I'm going to borrow his template and try to work out some mafia profiles. When we know for sure how Pyrr writes his clues, I am going to do another analysis based on that.

I have bolded the parts of the day posts that I feel is relevant for these profiles.

Mafia A and B:

+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A and B] +


Mafia A and Mafia B seem very much alike. If it hadn't been for the fact that the murders should have happened simultaneously, I would probably have combined these two suspects into one, giving us three clues on one person. Since this isn't possible, I'll add the day two clues to both of these profiles for now.

Mafia A:

+ Show Spoiler [Mafia A] +


Day 1 Post:
Behind Pyrrhuloxia, a figure crept closer. When Pyrrhuloxia lifted his hands from the railing to stir his decaffeinated coffee with a drumstick, the figure pushed him from behind. Pyrry flew over the sixth floor ledge to his death.


Day 2 Post:
Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life.


Notes:

- "A figure", possibly not a human, so far unseen
- Attacking from behind, possibly wielding a whip
- Victims stomped to death, or fell to death, unable to take a look at the attacker

Fitting suspects:

  • chaoser. Stealthy ninjas attacking from behind, not being seen? Plausible. But the killing methods, involving stomping, makes this kind of farfetched.

  • omG.[RaYnE]. I'm basing this on the character Rayne in Blood Rayne, which I think is the most plausible link to omG.[RaYnE]. Quote from Wikipedia: "Due to that fact that Rayne was raised to be a powerful vampiric assassin that isn't supposed to show any sign of weakness to her opponents, she can seem cold, aloof, brooding, and even callous at times." The downside to this theory is that she doesn't seem to use a whip, on the contrary, she uses double blades.

  • teks. Yeah, I'm not going to exclude myself, I have nothing to hide. I have a picture of Darkwing Duck in my profile. This would fit to the "figure" not being confirmed to be a human, but as far as I know, he doesn't use a whip. And no, the rope on the picture is attached to the helicopter, it would be a very farfetched link to this suspect, in my opinion.

Conclusion so far

If we retract the day 2 clues from this suspect, all of the suspects on the lists really make more sense because we can disregard the whip. But without the day 2 clue, we really have nothing at all to go on, except the killing method.

A very stealthy being who knows how to get the job done without neither uttering a word or giving up his/her/its identity. The word figure implies that none of the suspects actually saw their murderer, so their physical identity still seems to be very much unknown.


Mafia B:

+ Show Spoiler [Mafia B] +


Day 1 Post

Meanwhile, downstairs, Qatol was using the Triumvirate Building's spacious archery range for target practice. As he looked down to reload, another figure crossed the room from the other side. The mafioso crept behind Qatol and took out his knife. Qatol never shot another arrow.


Day 2 Post:

Walking through the park in the darkness, Softer began to think he was being stalked, so he hid in the bushes. The figure that had been following him began to search the thicket, and Softer panicked and tried to bolt towards the park's exit. However, before Softer could get away, his stalker whipped him forcefully in the back. Softer flew to the ground, where vicious stomps to the back of the neck took his life.


Notes:

- A very fast (and perhaps stealthy) person, who is able to cross the "spacious" archery range in such a short amount of time (either that or Qatol just suck at reloading)
- Wielding a knife and possibly a whip
All I get from this is a being that is very fast and using weapons. I'm getting the feeling that we are dealing with a trained assassin/ninja or something like that.

I feel that this suspects fits better with the day 2 posts than Mafia A, but we really don't know much about this person either, except for the weapons and physical speed/stealth.

My suspect list:

  • omG.[RaYnE]. Again, Rayne from BloodRayne. I don't really know how fast she is, or wether or not she has a knife or a whip, but she does use weapons.

  • chaoser. Again, chaoser is connected to this via the ninja clue. I'd probably rank him higher on the suspect list for this one than RaYnE.



Mafia C:

+ Show Spoiler [Mafia C] +

Day 1 Post:

In the parking lot, LTT, the love child of the late L and Samsung Khan's captain, read an Erlend Loe novel in his Audi sports car. Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.


Notes:

- Something or someone able to shatter a windshield
- Passing out from blood loss implies that the attacker did not finish what he started, possibly leaving LTT before he was confirmed dead. Sloppiness or confidence in his ability? Maybe the attacker doesn't have any direct physical abilities?

Suspect list:

  • zeks. Credit to Shikyo and So no fek for this one. www.zeks.com is a company who produces compressed air pumps, which could possibly be used to shatter the windshield.

  • BWdero. He has a picture of the comic character Black Bolt. Black Bolt's ability is this (quoted from wikipedia): "He has a super sonic scream that can destroy almost anything, even if he whispers." Yeah, that's right. This guy is super powerful, but I imagine a whisper could take care of the windshield here. If he does show up again on day 3, it should be very easy to link the clues together.

  • iLoveKTF. This has also been brought up before. It's the sound waves in his profile, a picture of the cover of some album, it's not really important. It's still sound waves. I imagine that if Pyrr were to write clues about iLoveKTF, a character who uses sound waves to kill would be plausible.


Mafia D:

+ Show Spoiler [Mafia D] +

This is, together with Suspect C, in theory the easiest to analyze.

Day 2 Post

His door bell rang. "Who could it be at this hour?," he thought. A salesman in a flashy tie greeted Jimtudor from his welcome mat and began his pitch. Jimtudor tried to close the door in the man's face, but the man swiftly jammed a metal bar in the doorway and used it to pry the door open, then bash Jimtudor in the head till he died.


Notes:

- A civilized man who uses the doorbell.
- At this hour? Very early in the morning perhaps? I'm not sure if this is relevant information.
- Salesman in a flashy tie trying to sell something - may have become upset when Jimtudor didn't want to buy anything/listen to him.
- Wielding a metal bar
Suspect list:

[list]
[*] I10f: I believe it was Shikyo who told us about Britney Spears' perfume, Believe? Anyway, it fits to the salesman profile, him trying to sell Britney's perfume.

[*] Ra.Xor.2: I'm not going to quote his whole profile information, but it's basically what seems to be a missionary speech, so I'm thinking that the salesman could actually be trying to convert Jimtudor, or make him believe in God, whatever. So a religious fanatic who got angry when Jimtudor tried to shut the door before he could finish his pitch, seems plausible.


So that's basically what I've got so far. I hope that day 3 will bring us more clues so I can try to fill out the profiles more, and we're still missing some mafia in the clues. I also do think that it's a mistake of us to try to link people with oneword clues like "crepuscular" "Erlend Loe" or "drumstick" (yeah I know that one was quickly disregarded, but still).

In my opinion we should be focusing on the bigger picture in the day posts, trying to build profiles of the attackers assuming that this is how Pyrr is writing his clues.


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