• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EST 00:35
CET 06:35
KST 14:35
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT18Behind the Blue - Team Liquid History Book16Clem wins HomeStory Cup 289HomeStory Cup 28 - Info & Preview13Rongyi Cup S3 - Preview & Info8
Community News
Weekly Cups (Feb 9-15): herO doubles up2ACS replaced by "ASL Season Open" - Starts 21/0224LiuLi Cup: 2025 Grand Finals (Feb 10-16)46Weekly Cups (Feb 2-8): Classic, Solar, MaxPax win2Nexon's StarCraft game could be FPS, led by UMS maker16
StarCraft 2
General
ByuL: The Forgotten Master of ZvT Nexon's StarCraft game could be FPS, led by UMS maker How do you think the 5.0.15 balance patch (Oct 2025) for StarCraft II has affected the game? Weekly Cups (Feb 9-15): herO doubles up SpeCial on The Tasteless Podcast
Tourneys
Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament PIG STY FESTIVAL 7.0! (19 Feb - 1 Mar) LiuLi Cup: 2025 Grand Finals (Feb 10-16) Master Swan Open (Global Bronze-Master 2) WardiTV Team League Season 10
Strategy
Custom Maps
Map Editor closed ? [A] Starcraft Sound Mod
External Content
Mutation # 513 Attrition Warfare The PondCast: SC2 News & Results Mutation # 512 Overclocked Mutation # 511 Temple of Rebirth
Brood War
General
TvZ is the most complete match up BGH Auto Balance -> http://bghmmr.eu/ Ladder maps - how we can make blizz update them? Gypsy to Korea Brood War inspired Terran vs Zerg cinematic – feed
Tourneys
[Megathread] Daily Proleagues Escore Tournament StarCraft Season 1 Small VOD Thread 2.0 KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Fighting Spirit mining rates Zealot bombing is no longer popular? Current Meta
Other Games
General Games
Path of Exile ZeroSpace Megathread Diablo 2 thread Nintendo Switch Thread Battle Aces/David Kim RTS Megathread
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Deck construction bug Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Mafia Game Mode Feedback/Ideas Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Ask and answer stupid questions here! Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread
Fan Clubs
The IdrA Fan Club The herO Fan Club!
Media & Entertainment
[Req][Books] Good Fantasy/SciFi books [Manga] One Piece Anime Discussion Thread
Sports
2024 - 2026 Football Thread Formula 1 Discussion TL MMA Pick'em Pool 2013
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
TL Community
The Automated Ban List
Blogs
The Search For Meaning in Vi…
TrAiDoS
My 2025 Magic: The Gathering…
DARKING
Life Update and thoughts.
FuDDx
How do archons sleep?
8882
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 2450 users

Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 34

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Prev 1 32 33 34 35 36 107 Next
Malongo
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Chile3472 Posts
May 18 2009 20:12 GMT
#661
About the paramedics im almost 100% convinced they are both veteran players theres no need to make them a list.
Help me! im still improving my English. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. M. G.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:08:40
May 18 2009 20:12 GMT
#662
If you have a night action, send it in please.
Uff Da
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
May 18 2009 20:20 GMT
#663
On May 18 2009 11:32 Ace wrote:
here we go again. Mafia managed to make people take votes off of me, and no one read Ver's post.

Gotta love this town.


I can't read.
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
May 18 2009 20:38 GMT
#664
On May 19 2009 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well, I wish I wasn't so far behind with everything when reading earlier. The infinity kill makes sense, I guess. He just posted a few times saying lawl I have no idea whats going on and then ran away and never really did anything.

and for the last time, Ace shut the hell up. NemY being mafia is so fucking unlikely and you know it. It is like a 1% chance at MOST. 98% chance of him being DT/Traitor and 1% of him being a douche townie.

The lying leads him to look more like a Traitor who didn't plan everything out that he would need. It happens. However BESIDES that, most of his behavior makes him look like a legit detective. This is just a dumb move for mafia.

Just because the election is over doesn't mean this serves no purpose. The mafia is going to kill him just to be safe, so we should consider putting a medic on him so they will hesitate on hitting him. At LEAST for one day until he can try to prove whether he is a legit DT or not. Well not so much prove, but give us something to work with then if he dies and pops up blue, now we have a legit role check to work with.

To summarize what I said. The mafia has to kill him UNLESS hes mafia. At which point in a few days we will just kill him if he doesn't die from the oppositions volition. If hes a DT/Traitor which I have stated is most likely then the mafia has to kill him regardless of which they think he is. The longer they let him live and he is a DT the more information we get from him. Even if they risk killing the traitor who only helps them cause chaos without implicating one of their own.

So yeah, if in 4 days mafia doesn't kill him hes probably mafia. Chance of that happening? Practically zero. Until then, lets just bask in the glorious amount of behavioral data that the nemy debacle has caused us. I collected some fishy shit from before page 18, I should probably update it accordingly though.



Not true, and you know it. In my perspective, there's a 25% chance that Nemy is mafia. Mathematically, that is wholly true. In your perspective, he probably has closer to a 21% chance of being mafia, Certainly not 1%. He also has a 45% chance to be a green townie. That's not 1%. Nice try. Also has a 10% chance to be a DT or traitor.

I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 20:54 GMT
#665
I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?


From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play.

The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route?

After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1.

The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him.

Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 20:55 GMT
#666
Again, read ace's post. His statement is that we need to discourage this type of play from future games regardless of any 'crumbling' in this one.

Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:20:41
May 18 2009 21:02 GMT
#667
On May 19 2009 05:54 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?


From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play.

The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route?

After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1.

The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him.

Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material.


You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.

By the way, the word "feast" appears several times in the first post. This, to me, suggests extravagance (it had been the mafia's fourth feast). Both seem to suggest mafia feasting. In the first case, it's Chuiu and Pyrr, and in the second, LTT wrote, "The sharks feasted." (And, by the way, the writing is unquestionably LTT's. You're welcome.) Sharks, ravenous, murderous creatures, can serve as a metaphor for the mafia. Indeed, the fact that the water was shark-infested seems to confirm this (it goes well with the mafia's claim: "“You no longer control this town. It is ours now.”") After that moment, the mafia control the living bodies aboard the ship; the sharks, the dead thrown into the sea.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:20 GMT
#668
On May 19 2009 05:55 L wrote:
Again, read ace's post. His statement is that we need to discourage this type of play from future games regardless of any 'crumbling' in this one.

Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of.



Oh now you're getting it
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 21:24 GMT
#669
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 21:24 GMT
#670
You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.
You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement.

But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:25 GMT
#671
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Malongo
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Chile3472 Posts
May 18 2009 21:26 GMT
#672
L please use the quote button, its a pain to start looking everytime who are you replying.
Help me! im still improving my English. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. M. G.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:26 GMT
#673
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.



how many am I up to now? I like to know my score when I'm playing a game.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:28 GMT
#674
On May 19 2009 06:26 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.



how many am I up to now? I like to know my score when I'm playing a game.

lol
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:32:20
May 18 2009 21:28 GMT
#675
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.
You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement.

But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me.



To know, check my numbers. They are revealing, are they not?

Edit: And I wasn't trying to waste your own time. You were not the target. But yes, that's what's happening right now.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:31 GMT
#676
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...


uh what? I don't think you've been paying attention so let me clear it up for you...

This whole lynching nemy idea is giving the town tons of information. I've expressed my views on why nemy is useless plenty of times.

L gets to see where my motives are, and so does the town.

I likewise get to see his motives too.

We also get to see the vote records of the people that voted one way, but said something else in the thread.

Oops almost forgot - we get to read posts about people for/against my idea of lynching nemy and how "supportive" they appear.

Last but not least, the best posts of all are those people that don't even pay attention to it and just try and bring up another point.

Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
LucasWoJ
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States936 Posts
May 18 2009 21:55 GMT
#677
On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...



Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^



Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself.

^_^


"Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are it could have been." - Kurt Vonnegut
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:57 GMT
#678
oh shit happy birthday man!

But uh yeah, when did I say I skip any post without my name in it? I don't even remember saying that.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 23:18:50
May 18 2009 21:57 GMT
#679
I thought I'd try my hand at this, by the way. Empirically based, by the way.

Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy)
1. Caller - 36%
2. Incognito - 34%
3. scamp - 14%
4. scaramanga - 0%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 31%
6. fishball - 19%
7. nemy - 78%
8. fusionsdf - 67%
9. Ver - 59%
10. bockit - 0%
11. plexa - 70%
12. camlito - 82%
13. showtime! - 20%
14. mikeymoo - 45%
15. dreamflower - 47%
16. ace - 9%
17. infundibulum - 43%
18. vivi57 - 38%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 35%
21. amber[light] - 39%
22. rebirthoflegend - 0%
23. MTF - 0%
24. 0cz3c - 0%
25. infinity21 - 87%
26. heavonearth - 95%
27. Tricode - 0%
28. Malongo - 0%
29. MrBabyHands - 69%
30. L - 63%
31??? LTT 1%

Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points)
1. Caller - 64%
2. Incognito - 66%
3. scamp - 86%
4. scaramanga - 100%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 69%
6. fishball - 50%
7. nemy - 36%
8. fusionsdf - 70%
9. Ver - 89%
10. bockit - 100%
11. plexa - 17%
12. camlito - 43%
13. showtime! - 19%
14. mikeymoo - 61%
15. dreamflower - 54%
16. ace - 91%
17. infundibulum - 85%
18. vivi57 - 42%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 68%
21. amber[light] - 59%
22. rebirthoflegend - 100%
23. MTF - 100%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - ~30%
26. heavonearth - 23%
27. Tricode - 100%
28. Malongo - 100%
29. MrBabyHands - 25%
30. L - 34%
31???! LTT - 99%
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:58 GMT
#680
On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...


uh what? I don't think you've been paying attention so let me clear it up for you...

This whole lynching nemy idea is giving the town tons of information. I've expressed my views on why nemy is useless plenty of times.

L gets to see where my motives are, and so does the town.

I likewise get to see his motives too.

We also get to see the vote records of the people that voted one way, but said something else in the thread.

Oops almost forgot - we get to read posts about people for/against my idea of lynching nemy and how "supportive" they appear.

Last but not least, the best posts of all are those people that don't even pay attention to it and just try and bring up another point.

Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^

i see what you did there

if that is what you genuinely feel, then I don't understand why L is so diametrically opposed to it. L, you would get to see Ace's opinion, no? And if you really are opposed to what Ace is saying, this would be a good opportunity to check out any suspicions (probably none, imho).

I believe that Ace this round genuinely (for once) has town interest at heart here. But I still don't know if killing nemy is a good idea, partly because he could be traitor/DT (I doubt he's mafia) and partly because we're already prejudging on something we haven't completely clarified yet.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Prev 1 32 33 34 35 36 107 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Replay Cast
00:00
HomeStory Cup 28 - Group D
LiquipediaDiscussion
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
NeuroSwarm 195
FoxeR 118
SortOf 44
StarCraft: Brood War
Snow 169
Bale 39
Icarus 6
League of Legends
JimRising 765
Counter-Strike
Stewie2K729
Super Smash Bros
hungrybox1103
Mew2King21
Heroes of the Storm
Khaldor121
Other Games
summit1g10678
C9.Mang0643
WinterStarcraft392
RuFF_SC2119
Trikslyr44
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick969
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 12 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• Kozan
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
• sooper7s
StarCraft: Brood War
• BSLYoutube
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
League of Legends
• Scarra1836
• Lourlo1146
Upcoming Events
PiG Sty Festival
3h 25m
Maru vs Bunny
Classic vs SHIN
The PondCast
4h 25m
KCM Race Survival
4h 25m
WardiTV Winter Champion…
6h 25m
OSC
6h 25m
Replay Cast
18h 25m
PiG Sty Festival
1d 3h
Clem vs Percival
Zoun vs Solar
Escore
1d 4h
Epic.LAN
1d 6h
Replay Cast
1d 18h
[ Show More ]
PiG Sty Festival
2 days
herO vs NightMare
Reynor vs Cure
CranKy Ducklings
2 days
Epic.LAN
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
PiG Sty Festival
3 days
Serral vs YoungYakov
ByuN vs ShoWTimE
Sparkling Tuna Cup
3 days
Replay Cast
3 days
Replay Cast
4 days
Wardi Open
4 days
Monday Night Weeklies
4 days
Replay Cast
4 days
WardiTV Winter Champion…
5 days
WardiTV Winter Champion…
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

Proleague 2026-02-18
LiuLi Cup: 2025 Grand Finals
Underdog Cup #3

Ongoing

KCM Race Survival 2026 Season 1
WardiTV Winter 2026
PiG Sty Festival 7.0
Nations Cup 2026
PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026
IEM Kraków 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter 2026
BLAST Bounty Winter Qual
eXTREMESLAND 2025
SL Budapest Major 2025

Upcoming

Escore Tournament S1: King of Kings
[S:21] ASL SEASON OPEN 1st Round
[S:21] ASL SEASON OPEN 1st Round Qualifier
Acropolis #4 - TS5
Jeongseon Sooper Cup
Spring Cup 2026: China & Korea Invitational
[S:21] ASL SEASON OPEN 2nd Round
HSC XXIX
uThermal 2v2 2026 Main Event
Bellum Gens Elite Stara Zagora 2026
RSL Revival: Season 4
BLAST Rivals Spring 2026
CCT Season 3 Global Finals
FISSURE Playground #3
IEM Rio 2026
PGL Bucharest 2026
Stake Ranked Episode 1
BLAST Open Spring 2026
ESL Pro League Season 23
ESL Pro League Season 23
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2026 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.