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Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 34

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Malongo
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Chile3472 Posts
May 18 2009 20:12 GMT
#661
About the paramedics im almost 100% convinced they are both veteran players theres no need to make them a list.
Help me! im still improving my English. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. M. G.
Qatol
Profile Blog Joined November 2006
United States3165 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:08:40
May 18 2009 20:12 GMT
#662
If you have a night action, send it in please.
Uff Da
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
May 18 2009 20:20 GMT
#663
On May 18 2009 11:32 Ace wrote:
here we go again. Mafia managed to make people take votes off of me, and no one read Ver's post.

Gotta love this town.


I can't read.
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
May 18 2009 20:38 GMT
#664
On May 19 2009 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well, I wish I wasn't so far behind with everything when reading earlier. The infinity kill makes sense, I guess. He just posted a few times saying lawl I have no idea whats going on and then ran away and never really did anything.

and for the last time, Ace shut the hell up. NemY being mafia is so fucking unlikely and you know it. It is like a 1% chance at MOST. 98% chance of him being DT/Traitor and 1% of him being a douche townie.

The lying leads him to look more like a Traitor who didn't plan everything out that he would need. It happens. However BESIDES that, most of his behavior makes him look like a legit detective. This is just a dumb move for mafia.

Just because the election is over doesn't mean this serves no purpose. The mafia is going to kill him just to be safe, so we should consider putting a medic on him so they will hesitate on hitting him. At LEAST for one day until he can try to prove whether he is a legit DT or not. Well not so much prove, but give us something to work with then if he dies and pops up blue, now we have a legit role check to work with.

To summarize what I said. The mafia has to kill him UNLESS hes mafia. At which point in a few days we will just kill him if he doesn't die from the oppositions volition. If hes a DT/Traitor which I have stated is most likely then the mafia has to kill him regardless of which they think he is. The longer they let him live and he is a DT the more information we get from him. Even if they risk killing the traitor who only helps them cause chaos without implicating one of their own.

So yeah, if in 4 days mafia doesn't kill him hes probably mafia. Chance of that happening? Practically zero. Until then, lets just bask in the glorious amount of behavioral data that the nemy debacle has caused us. I collected some fishy shit from before page 18, I should probably update it accordingly though.



Not true, and you know it. In my perspective, there's a 25% chance that Nemy is mafia. Mathematically, that is wholly true. In your perspective, he probably has closer to a 21% chance of being mafia, Certainly not 1%. He also has a 45% chance to be a green townie. That's not 1%. Nice try. Also has a 10% chance to be a DT or traitor.

I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 20:54 GMT
#665
I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?


From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play.

The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route?

After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1.

The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him.

Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 20:55 GMT
#666
Again, read ace's post. His statement is that we need to discourage this type of play from future games regardless of any 'crumbling' in this one.

Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:20:41
May 18 2009 21:02 GMT
#667
On May 19 2009 05:54 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?


From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play.

The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route?

After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1.

The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him.

Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material.


You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.

By the way, the word "feast" appears several times in the first post. This, to me, suggests extravagance (it had been the mafia's fourth feast). Both seem to suggest mafia feasting. In the first case, it's Chuiu and Pyrr, and in the second, LTT wrote, "The sharks feasted." (And, by the way, the writing is unquestionably LTT's. You're welcome.) Sharks, ravenous, murderous creatures, can serve as a metaphor for the mafia. Indeed, the fact that the water was shark-infested seems to confirm this (it goes well with the mafia's claim: "“You no longer control this town. It is ours now.”") After that moment, the mafia control the living bodies aboard the ship; the sharks, the dead thrown into the sea.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:20 GMT
#668
On May 19 2009 05:55 L wrote:
Again, read ace's post. His statement is that we need to discourage this type of play from future games regardless of any 'crumbling' in this one.

Clear instance of punishing the current town for making a play he doesn't approve of.



Oh now you're getting it
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 21:24 GMT
#669
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
May 18 2009 21:24 GMT
#670
You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.
You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement.

But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:25 GMT
#671
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
Malongo
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Chile3472 Posts
May 18 2009 21:26 GMT
#672
L please use the quote button, its a pain to start looking everytime who are you replying.
Help me! im still improving my English. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. M. G.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:26 GMT
#673
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.



how many am I up to now? I like to know my score when I'm playing a game.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:28 GMT
#674
On May 19 2009 06:26 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Tricode was arguing against that point when you said his statements were logical and good.

Contradiction again.



how many am I up to now? I like to know my score when I'm playing a game.

lol
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 21:32:20
May 18 2009 21:28 GMT
#675
On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.
You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement.

But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me.



To know, check my numbers. They are revealing, are they not?

Edit: And I wasn't trying to waste your own time. You were not the target. But yes, that's what's happening right now.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:31 GMT
#676
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...


uh what? I don't think you've been paying attention so let me clear it up for you...

This whole lynching nemy idea is giving the town tons of information. I've expressed my views on why nemy is useless plenty of times.

L gets to see where my motives are, and so does the town.

I likewise get to see his motives too.

We also get to see the vote records of the people that voted one way, but said something else in the thread.

Oops almost forgot - we get to read posts about people for/against my idea of lynching nemy and how "supportive" they appear.

Last but not least, the best posts of all are those people that don't even pay attention to it and just try and bring up another point.

Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
LucasWoJ
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
United States936 Posts
May 18 2009 21:55 GMT
#677
On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...



Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^



Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself.

^_^


"Of all the words of mice and men, the saddest are it could have been." - Kurt Vonnegut
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
May 18 2009 21:57 GMT
#678
oh shit happy birthday man!

But uh yeah, when did I say I skip any post without my name in it? I don't even remember saying that.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
0cz3c
Profile Joined February 2008
United States564 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-05-18 23:18:50
May 18 2009 21:57 GMT
#679
I thought I'd try my hand at this, by the way. Empirically based, by the way.

Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy)
1. Caller - 36%
2. Incognito - 34%
3. scamp - 14%
4. scaramanga - 0%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 31%
6. fishball - 19%
7. nemy - 78%
8. fusionsdf - 67%
9. Ver - 59%
10. bockit - 0%
11. plexa - 70%
12. camlito - 82%
13. showtime! - 20%
14. mikeymoo - 45%
15. dreamflower - 47%
16. ace - 9%
17. infundibulum - 43%
18. vivi57 - 38%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 35%
21. amber[light] - 39%
22. rebirthoflegend - 0%
23. MTF - 0%
24. 0cz3c - 0%
25. infinity21 - 87%
26. heavonearth - 95%
27. Tricode - 0%
28. Malongo - 0%
29. MrBabyHands - 69%
30. L - 63%
31??? LTT 1%

Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points)
1. Caller - 64%
2. Incognito - 66%
3. scamp - 86%
4. scaramanga - 100%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 69%
6. fishball - 50%
7. nemy - 36%
8. fusionsdf - 70%
9. Ver - 89%
10. bockit - 100%
11. plexa - 17%
12. camlito - 43%
13. showtime! - 19%
14. mikeymoo - 61%
15. dreamflower - 54%
16. ace - 91%
17. infundibulum - 85%
18. vivi57 - 42%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 68%
21. amber[light] - 59%
22. rebirthoflegend - 100%
23. MTF - 100%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - ~30%
26. heavonearth - 23%
27. Tricode - 100%
28. Malongo - 100%
29. MrBabyHands - 25%
30. L - 34%
31???! LTT - 99%
Caller
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Poland8075 Posts
May 18 2009 21:58 GMT
#680
On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote:
L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other...


uh what? I don't think you've been paying attention so let me clear it up for you...

This whole lynching nemy idea is giving the town tons of information. I've expressed my views on why nemy is useless plenty of times.

L gets to see where my motives are, and so does the town.

I likewise get to see his motives too.

We also get to see the vote records of the people that voted one way, but said something else in the thread.

Oops almost forgot - we get to read posts about people for/against my idea of lynching nemy and how "supportive" they appear.

Last but not least, the best posts of all are those people that don't even pay attention to it and just try and bring up another point.

Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize.

^_^

i see what you did there

if that is what you genuinely feel, then I don't understand why L is so diametrically opposed to it. L, you would get to see Ace's opinion, no? And if you really are opposed to what Ace is saying, this would be a good opportunity to check out any suspicions (probably none, imho).

I believe that Ace this round genuinely (for once) has town interest at heart here. But I still don't know if killing nemy is a good idea, partly because he could be traitor/DT (I doubt he's mafia) and partly because we're already prejudging on something we haven't completely clarified yet.
Watch me fail at Paradox: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=397564
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