Mafia VIII [GG] - Page 35

On May 19 2009 06:57 0cz3c wrote:
I thought I'd try my hand at this, by the way. Empirically based, by the way.

Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy)
1. Caller - 36%
2. Incognito - 34%
3. scamp - 14%
4. scaramanga - 98%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 31%
6. fishball - 19%
7. nemy - 78%
8. fusionsdf - 67%
9. Ver - 59%
10. bockit - 71%
11. plexa - 70%
12. camlito - 82%
13. showtime! - 20%
14. mikeymoo - 45%
15. dreamflower - 47%
16. ace - 9%
17. infundibulum - 43%
18. vivi57 - 38%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 35%
21. amber[light] - 39%
22. rebirthoflegend - 89%
23. MTF - 78%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - 87%
26. heavonearth - 95%
27. Tricode - 94%
28. Malongo - 0%
29. MrBabyHands - 69%
30. L - 63%

Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points)
1. Caller - 64%
2. Incognito - 66%
3. scamp - 86%
4. scaramanga - 0%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 69%
6. fishball - 50%
7. nemy - 36%
8. fusionsdf - 70%
9. Ver - 89%
10. bockit - 11%
11. plexa - 17%
12. camlito - 43%
13. showtime! - 19%
14. mikeymoo - 61%
15. dreamflower - 54%
16. ace - 91%
17. infundibulum - 85%
18. vivi57 - 42%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 68%
21. amber[light] - 59%
22. rebirthoflegend - 0.0001%
23. MTF - 17%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - ~30%
26. heavonearth - 23%
27. Tricode - 35%
28. Malongo - 0%
29. MrBabyHands - 25%
30. L - 34%

On May 19 2009 06:57 0cz3c wrote:
I thought I'd try my hand at this, by the way. Empirically based, by the way.

Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy)
1. Caller - 36%
2. Incognito - 34%
3. scamp - 14%
4. scaramanga - 98%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 31%
6. fishball - 19%
7. nemy - 78%
8. fusionsdf - 67%
9. Ver - 59%
10. bockit - 71%
11. plexa - 70%
12. camlito - 82%
13. showtime! - 20%
14. mikeymoo - 45%
15. dreamflower - 47%
16. ace - 9%
17. infundibulum - 43%
18. vivi57 - 38%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 35%
21. amber[light] - 39%
22. rebirthoflegend - 89%
23. MTF - 78%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - 87%
26. heavonearth - 95%
27. Tricode - 94%
28. Malongo - 0% <----
29. MrBabyHands - 69%
30. L - 63%

Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points)
1. Caller - 64%
2. Incognito - 66%
3. scamp - 86%
4. scaramanga - 0%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 69%
6. fishball - 50%
7. nemy - 36%
8. fusionsdf - 70%
9. Ver - 89%
10. bockit - 11%
11. plexa - 17%
12. camlito - 43%
13. showtime! - 19%
14. mikeymoo - 61%
15. dreamflower - 54%
16. ace - 91%
17. infundibulum - 85%
18. vivi57 - 42%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 68%
21. amber[light] - 59%
22. rebirthoflegend - 0.0001%
23. MTF - 17%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - ~30%
26. heavonearth - 23%
27. Tricode - 35%
28. Malongo - 0% <---
29. MrBabyHands - 25%
30. L - 34%

On May 19 2009 06:55 LucasWoJ wrote:



Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself.

^_^

On May 19 2009 07:01 Ace wrote:


oh my, looks like you have a contradiction in your post.

On May 19 2009 06:58 Caller wrote:

i see what you did there

if that is what you genuinely feel, then I don't understand why L is so diametrically opposed to it. L, you would get to see Ace's opinion, no? And if you really are opposed to what Ace is saying, this would be a good opportunity to check out any suspicions (probably none, imho).

I believe that Ace this round genuinely (for once) has town interest at heart here. But I still don't know if killing nemy is a good idea, partly because he could be traitor/DT (I doubt he's mafia) and partly because we're already prejudging on something we haven't completely clarified yet.

On May 18 2009 09:10 Ace wrote:
I'd tl:dr your post Ver, but I just masturbated and got a sudden burst of energy.

I'll also only address the part of your post directly with my name in it, since if a post doesn't include my name I skip it.



Sorry - but this is where you fucked up. I've said it plenty of times, I'm aggressive because it's how I feel like being. Whether I'm townie or Mafia I play with a free conscience because I honestly don't think anybody can read anything I do and you've just proven my point. You can also ask Mr.BabyHands - I've played an aggressive townie style before. It's not a Mafia trait at all.

Now onto your analysis of nemy. You've failed to point out something significant: The difference between this game and the game with BC was that I pointed out that BC might be the Village Idiot hence we don't even care what happens to him. The real danger is lynching mikeymoo because we have no information about him based on what BC did. This scenario is different as there is no one being accused - this is just a role claim at a bad time.

What also makes this different is that unlike when Empyrean claimed DT on Day 1, nemy lied. In Mafia 2 I had no reason to lynch Empyrean as soon as I got Mayor because empyrean only claimed to be a DT and didn't say anything about having a way to prove it. So we just let him be.

nemy got caught in a lie. Badly. See the difference? If nemy was a DT that just played his hand wrong we could surely just say ok buddy, no office for you and keep things hush after that. He lied on got caught and that changes everything as an innocent doesn't have to lie to the town on information that would help us greatly. Hell, he STILL hasn't even given it to us and when asked he tried to be cool like me - but failed.

Also if nemy is a traitor - of course we lynch him. Do we have a better suspect? I don't think so. If he's a traitor that means he isn't working for the town which means he should die. Simple, really.

See how all these scenarios are different? Nothing anyone says can explain why nemy lied. Nothing. So he gets the lynch. As for my vote train - meh. Whats so suspect about it? People know a good candidate when they see one.

As for me being buddy/buddy with Mynock - what's the problem? I've supported him in every game I've played and there's no secret about it. I don't even have any clue what his role could possibly be but I've said this so many times - there isn't any reliable way to find out anybody's role right now so I base my votes off of ABILITY. Since I believe Mynock is one of the best candidates I voted for him. go ahead and try to analyze that, you'll end up like Versatile and we see how her logic worked out.

So once again I'll state your analysis has FAILED. Based on pure playing ability myself and Mynock should be in office over anyone else, with the exception of maybe BC. Showtime! and Caller do better outside of leadership roles.

I'm interested in hearing your retort to this post.

On May 19 2009 08:12 Fishball wrote:
Why do I only get a 19%?
Shit.

On May 19 2009 07:56 LucasWoJ wrote:


http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286&currentpage=25#492

Thanks for helping me find this, LTT


EDIT: Btw, thanks Ace, Qatol, and Caller.

On May 19 2009 08:21 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
much like caller, he be mad red yo

On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote:
I just got back. Sorry guys I was at my honors defense (Yes I passed :D).

Last night I didn't want to spend any more time on mafia than I did and being feverish I just did a coin flip bo7 between Infinity21 and Amber[light]. Infinity won 4-1 so that was that. I had a few more ambitious lynches but I didn't have the time to contact Ace and I figured he'd be okay with lynching a noncontributer.

0cz3c your list sucks. Not only is it useless but contradictory and inaccurate. At the very least I want the colored text back!

I'll update mine in a bit though. Despite Ace's silly criticism based on some newbie implementation I still believe it is a valid way to make my opinions known and inject some chaos. I thought the idea was awesome when I saw you post that thing last game and so far it's been quite successful ^_^

Not much else to say for the night though. I disagree with Ace's dt list in needing to RC those three mayoral candidates but that can wait till later when we have more evidence.

The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2.

I originally thought there were 2, Mynock and Ace. One of my associates thought that as well. But Ace's response to me calling him out was exactly what I expected if he was innocent. Mynock, not so much, and I'm pretty questioning of him still (imo primary dt suspect). The useful part with this is that once we know we can clear everyone else because mafia is not going to have that many candidates running.

Game history says that any time a mafia candidate has run, they have always gotten a position. Randombum got pardonner in mafia 2, MTF got mayor in mafia 4, and Qatol got mayor last game. My vote switching shenanigans were in an attempt to isolate the mafia voters or figure out potential mafia candidates. I'm still not certain on Ace/Mynock and they have to prove themselves but I feel a bit better than I did before. Caller BC and Showtime are almost assuredly innocent based on votes.

If anyone has any insight on this I'd much appreciate it. Town needs to talk more, as I was pretty annoyed that almost nobody responded to my queries for targets last night. L is doing a great job of adding confusion and chaos while distracting us from our tasks.

As for tomorrows lynches, more will be clear when we see who's dead. Mafia either have to blue snipe or target who they feel is the most dangerous. But if they do the latter the mafia will reveal themselves quickly (this is why I only blue sniped last game).