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On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote:
The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2.
Yes, that is quite pressing. I wonder, how do you figure this is even possible without RC'ing the people Ace listed as those who must be looked up?
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Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy) 1. Caller - 36% 2. Incognito - 34% 3. scamp - 14% 4. scaramanga - 0% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 31% 6. fishball - 19% 7. nemy - 78% 8. fusionsdf - 67% 9. Ver - 100% 10. bockit - 0% 11. plexa - 70% 12. camlito - 82% 13. showtime! - 20% 14. mikeymoo - 45% 15. dreamflower - 47% 16. ace - 9% 17. infundibulum - 43% 18. vivi57 - 38% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 35% 21. amber[light] - 39% 22. rebirthoflegend - 0% 23. MTF - 0% 24. 0cz3c - 0% 25. infinity21 - 87% 26. heavonearth - 95% 27. Tricode - 0% 28. Malongo - 0% 29. MrBabyHands - 69% 30. L - 63% 31??? LTT 1%
Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points) 1. Caller - 64% 2. Incognito - 66% 3. scamp - 86% 4. scaramanga - 100% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 69% 6. fishball - 50% 7. nemy - 36% 8. fusionsdf - 70% 9. Ver - 0% 10. bockit - 100% 11. plexa - 17% 12. camlito - 43% 13. showtime! - 19% 14. mikeymoo - 61% 15. dreamflower - 54% 16. ace - 91% 17. infundibulum - 85% 18. vivi57 - 42% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 68% 21. amber[light] - 59% 22. rebirthoflegend - 100% 23. MTF - 100% 24. 0cz3c - 100% 25. infinity21 - ~30% 26. heavonearth - 23% 27. Tricode - 100% 28. Malongo - 100% 29. MrBabyHands - 25% 30. L - 34% 31???! LTT - 99%
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0cz, infinity is dead and green, he would have 100% townie alignment :p
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On May 19 2009 08:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote: 0cz, infinity is dead and green, he would have 100% townie alignment :p or is he...
O.O
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Happy birthday to the brothers. They are, how to say, an important part of the game.
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infinity21
Canada6683 Posts
ehh it looks like i'm dead already..
in my defense, someone kept nagging me to play so i signed up but i haven't had much time to read everything in this thread to conclude anything so that's why i haven't posted. plus i'm not very experienced at this game so i didn't want to start throwing accusations
kind of interesting how everyone thought i was mafia cause i didn't post =/
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Inifinity, I only thought that there was an 87% chance you were mafia. I maintain and will continue to maintain that percentage chance, as it proved to be accurate.
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On May 19 2009 07:01 L wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 06:55 LucasWoJ wrote:On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote: L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other... Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize. ^_^ Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself. ^_^ Ace obviously has a stylistic flair in his writing, and an obvious tendancy to make emotional rather than logical arguments. How people react to me calling them out, however, is very telling because it looks like we're 'fighting' and that generally makes people pick sides. Malongo, i did the cute quote thing. Start posting content you douchebag. Congratulations L, please use that method from now on. Are you trying to get a reaction from me? Unfortunately I truly dont understand the term "douche" or "douchebag" to its fullest. At best I can guess its something like "not friendly" but wordreference says its something like "vaginal shower" :S. Theres not too much content to add really, since we must wait for the day post. I already said what I think about Nemy, in this case ignore is the best we can do. About the medics I already said that I think they are quite experienced this time (I think I can point to one of them) and the veterans are indeed waiting to take at least a hit.
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I generally wait to hear what Malongo has to say, and then I do the exact opposite.
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doesnt that make you die a little inside everytime 0cz, i mean it hurts to read
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On May 19 2009 09:04 infinity21 wrote: ehh it looks like i'm dead already..
in my defense, someone kept nagging me to play so i signed up but i haven't had much time to read everything in this thread to conclude anything so that's why i haven't posted. plus i'm not very experienced at this game so i didn't want to start throwing accusations
kind of interesting how everyone thought i was mafia cause i didn't post =/
it's not necessarily that anyone thought you were mafia. it's more the idea that inactive players hurt the town no matter what side they are on, and going after inactives stops the mafia from trying to hide among them.
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infinity21
Canada6683 Posts
On May 19 2009 09:40 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 09:04 infinity21 wrote: ehh it looks like i'm dead already..
in my defense, someone kept nagging me to play so i signed up but i haven't had much time to read everything in this thread to conclude anything so that's why i haven't posted. plus i'm not very experienced at this game so i didn't want to start throwing accusations
kind of interesting how everyone thought i was mafia cause i didn't post =/ it's not necessarily that anyone thought you were mafia. it's more the idea that inactive players hurt the town no matter what side they are on, and going after inactives stops the mafia from trying to hide among them. fair enough
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On May 19 2009 09:27 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 07:01 L wrote:On May 19 2009 06:55 LucasWoJ wrote:On May 19 2009 06:31 Ace wrote:On May 19 2009 06:25 Caller wrote: L and Ace, why are you guys still fighting? This is a really stupid point-whether or not we should lynch nemy-when we've barely started the game. At least wait until Day 2 and see if any clues point to him before you begin you ballasting of the other... Trust me when I say I pay far more attention to everyone's posts than you people realize. ^_^ Perhaps because you yourself tell us that you skip any post that does not include your name in it. Not hard to beat those assumptions. You could skim or even glance at your posts and you'd topple the expectations you set for yourself. ^_^ Ace obviously has a stylistic flair in his writing, and an obvious tendancy to make emotional rather than logical arguments. How people react to me calling them out, however, is very telling because it looks like we're 'fighting' and that generally makes people pick sides. Malongo, i did the cute quote thing. Start posting content you douchebag. Congratulations L, please use that method from now on. Are you trying to get a reaction from me? Unfortunately I truly dont understand the term "douche" or "douchebag" to its fullest. At best I can guess its something like "not friendly" but wordreference says its something like "vaginal shower" :S. Theres not too much content to add really, since we must wait for the day post. I already said what I think about Nemy, in this case ignore is the best we can do. About the medics I already said that I think they are quite experienced this time (I think I can point to one of them) and the veterans are indeed waiting to take at least a hit. Yes, I called you a vaginal shower. Was rather lighthearted.
But there is still plenty to talk about, and plenty of value in talking.
Also, i'm getting the hang of this quote button.
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On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote: I just got back. Sorry guys I was at my honors defense (Yes I passed :D).
Last night I didn't want to spend any more time on mafia than I did and being feverish I just did a coin flip bo7 between Infinity21 and Amber[light]. Infinity won 4-1 so that was that. I had a few more ambitious lynches but I didn't have the time to contact Ace and I figured he'd be okay with lynching a noncontributer.
0cz3c your list sucks. Not only is it useless but contradictory and inaccurate. At the very least I want the colored text back!
I'll update mine in a bit though. Despite Ace's silly criticism based on some newbie implementation I still believe it is a valid way to make my opinions known and inject some chaos. I thought the idea was awesome when I saw you post that thing last game and so far it's been quite successful ^_^
Not much else to say for the night though. I disagree with Ace's dt list in needing to RC those three mayoral candidates but that can wait till later when we have more evidence.
The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2.
I originally thought there were 2, Mynock and Ace. One of my associates thought that as well. But Ace's response to me calling him out was exactly what I expected if he was innocent. Mynock, not so much, and I'm pretty questioning of him still (imo primary dt suspect). The useful part with this is that once we know we can clear everyone else because mafia is not going to have that many candidates running.
Game history says that any time a mafia candidate has run, they have always gotten a position. Randombum got pardonner in mafia 2, MTF got mayor in mafia 4, and Qatol got mayor last game. My vote switching shenanigans were in an attempt to isolate the mafia voters or figure out potential mafia candidates. I'm still not certain on Ace/Mynock and they have to prove themselves but I feel a bit better than I did before. Caller BC and Showtime are almost assuredly innocent based on votes.
If anyone has any insight on this I'd much appreciate it. Town needs to talk more, as I was pretty annoyed that almost nobody responded to my queries for targets last night. L is doing a great job of adding confusion and chaos while distracting us from our tasks.
As for tomorrows lynches, more will be clear when we see who's dead. Mafia either have to blue snipe or target who they feel is the most dangerous. But if they do the latter the mafia will reveal themselves quickly (this is why I only blue sniped last game).
You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it.
If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you.
As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was.
Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation.
What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements.
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On May 19 2009 08:43 0cz3c wrote: Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy) 1. Caller - 36% 2. Incognito - 34% 3. scamp - 14% 4. scaramanga - 0% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 31% 6. fishball - 19% 7. nemy - 78% 8. fusionsdf - 67% 9. Ver - 100% 10. bockit - 0% 11. plexa - 70% 12. camlito - 82% 13. showtime! - 20% 14. mikeymoo - 45% 15. dreamflower - 47% 16. ace - 9% 17. infundibulum - 43% 18. vivi57 - 38% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 35% 21. amber[light] - 39% 22. rebirthoflegend - 0% 23. MTF - 0% 24. 0cz3c - 0% 25. infinity21 - 87% 26. heavonearth - 95% 27. Tricode - 0% 28. Malongo - 0% 29. MrBabyHands - 69% 30. L - 63% 31??? LTT 1%
Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points) 1. Caller - 64% 2. Incognito - 66% 3. scamp - 86% 4. scaramanga - 100% 5. bloodyc0bbler - 69% 6. fishball - 50% 7. nemy - 36% 8. fusionsdf - 70% 9. Ver - 0% 10. bockit - 100% 11. plexa - 17% 12. camlito - 43% 13. showtime! - 19% 14. mikeymoo - 61% 15. dreamflower - 54% 16. ace - 91% 17. infundibulum - 85% 18. vivi57 - 42% 19. mynock - 28% 20. lucaswoj - 68% 21. amber[light] - 59% 22. rebirthoflegend - 100% 23. MTF - 100% 24. 0cz3c - 100% 25. infinity21 - ~30% 26. heavonearth - 23% 27. Tricode - 100% 28. Malongo - 100% 29. MrBabyHands - 25% 30. L - 34% 31???! LTT - 99%
Voters for showtime and showtime himself are rather explicitly ranked between 0 and 20%. Coincidence?
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On May 19 2009 10:47 L wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 08:36 Ver wrote: I just got back. Sorry guys I was at my honors defense (Yes I passed :D).
Last night I didn't want to spend any more time on mafia than I did and being feverish I just did a coin flip bo7 between Infinity21 and Amber[light]. Infinity won 4-1 so that was that. I had a few more ambitious lynches but I didn't have the time to contact Ace and I figured he'd be okay with lynching a noncontributer.
0cz3c your list sucks. Not only is it useless but contradictory and inaccurate. At the very least I want the colored text back!
I'll update mine in a bit though. Despite Ace's silly criticism based on some newbie implementation I still believe it is a valid way to make my opinions known and inject some chaos. I thought the idea was awesome when I saw you post that thing last game and so far it's been quite successful ^_^
Not much else to say for the night though. I disagree with Ace's dt list in needing to RC those three mayoral candidates but that can wait till later when we have more evidence.
The most pressing thing I want to know is how many mafia candidates ran. 0, 1, or 2.
I originally thought there were 2, Mynock and Ace. One of my associates thought that as well. But Ace's response to me calling him out was exactly what I expected if he was innocent. Mynock, not so much, and I'm pretty questioning of him still (imo primary dt suspect). The useful part with this is that once we know we can clear everyone else because mafia is not going to have that many candidates running.
Game history says that any time a mafia candidate has run, they have always gotten a position. Randombum got pardonner in mafia 2, MTF got mayor in mafia 4, and Qatol got mayor last game. My vote switching shenanigans were in an attempt to isolate the mafia voters or figure out potential mafia candidates. I'm still not certain on Ace/Mynock and they have to prove themselves but I feel a bit better than I did before. Caller BC and Showtime are almost assuredly innocent based on votes.
If anyone has any insight on this I'd much appreciate it. Town needs to talk more, as I was pretty annoyed that almost nobody responded to my queries for targets last night. L is doing a great job of adding confusion and chaos while distracting us from our tasks.
As for tomorrows lynches, more will be clear when we see who's dead. Mafia either have to blue snipe or target who they feel is the most dangerous. But if they do the latter the mafia will reveal themselves quickly (this is why I only blue sniped last game). You ran for mayor. You attempt to side implicate me despite saying town needs activity and I'm the main catalyst for it. If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you. As for confusion, feel free to look at how 'switch happy' the voting base was. Quite frankly, if you assume that 1, 2 or 3 of you/ace/mynock are mafia, and that any innocent member is being set up for a fall to make the guilty parties look better, all of the posts from you, mynock and ace make perfect sense. It made sense when you circularly voted for each other. It makes sense with the fake trap you set for ace. It made sense when you promised activity then provided none. It made sense during ace's argumentation. It made sense during mynock's argumentation. What's more, most of your analysis has been a DIRECT copy of things I've said, yet you point a finger at me for causing confusion for advocating, largely, the same logic you are. You're a smart player, so you're obviously baiting me or baiting someone else with these statements.
particularly If someone suspects you, which I do because you ran for mayor, and by your own logic that puts you on the 'high' suspicion list, the qualities in your post add up very well against you.
Makes more sense if it reads:
If someone suspects you because you ran for mayor, by your own logic that puts you (and your post) on the 'high' suspicion list. The qualities in your post add up very well against you.
Rather quick writing and I wanted to get to that list point because I've been looking very closely at the members of that rapid showtime vote explosion (for obvious reasons).
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Also to add, Ver I dont know why you included Infnity21 in your lynch. Originally it was just between amber[light] and him so now AL is a high priority target in my eyes.
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To explain, examine Ver's original suspicion of Ace/Mynock post. I like how he subtly says that either 0,1,2 of them are mafia. Then L says 1,2,3. We will find out more from the day post (hopefully).
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well if Mynock dies tonight(hint hint medics), and I know I'm innocent gee I guess that leaves Ver as the remaining one to be Mafia then.
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