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In either case I think the CK will have a separate victory condition from either mafia or town. All he has to do is survive, and say the town lynches all the mafia but the CK is still alive, then it is a town + CK victory. This is much more complicated than if CK's victory excludes the others - for example, everyone must die but the CK. I do not think that is the case in this game, it would a) be difficult at best [though a CK skilled at social engineering could do it], and b) take forever.
Since the CK can't even act until Day 2, I am assuming he will just wait and see which side appears to have the advantage / can offer him better services at that time. I also would not expect him to side with either town or mafia for the duration of the game. His allegiance may not be consistent. However Bockit is correct that we have no avoidable losses from this, as long as we avoid advertising a blue.
I don't know who I'm going to vote for yet. Either Ace or Qatol, I won't be voting for Showtime! due to certain... past experiences. But I will say now that this weekend and following week are gonna be really hectic. I'll try to be active as much as I can though, sicne it gives me an excuse to procrastinate 
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Hm, two families could make things a bit weird with the CK. Though I guess it doesn't really matter to the town who the CK is working for, he's either with the town or not with the town. Also 2 hits per family seems a bit low to me, I'd wager 3 hits for a total of 6. The problem though is that we do not know if we are missing hits, because mafia may have stacked, or people have not spoken up yet.
It's entirely possible, although unlikely, that the DTs were only in contact with mafia members. And if they were in contact with a townie, maybe he/she doesn't want to speak up for some reason? The only reason they would speak up is if they knew who else the DT was talking to, otherwise you just put a target on yourself and no information of use is gained...
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What are your leads on Showtime! The general connection of his name to the TV's in Day 1?
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On April 27 2009 04:39 3clipse wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2009 03:03 Monoxide wrote:
uhh... I don't see it....Can you give me more examples, and I will tell you why they don't apply.
Certianly. "Bloodyc0bbler was left to die slowly" Carbon monoxide poisoning is a slow death. "Scaramanga handed some parcels to a courier, and closing his door, walked to his living room, and began throwing stacks of paper into his fireplace" This produces carbon monoxide. "Pyrrhuloxia fired, just as his opponent tripped forward just under the bullets path before stumbling into, and stabbing pyrrhuloxia" This death was basically accidental, as carbon monoxide poisoning is in most cases. "Nemy turned to the commotion and got up to save his friend, only to take a few steps and collapse, with a burning sensation in his lungs" While carbon monoxide poisoning is painless, you can't deny that this is the strongest clue so far that can be traced to a single person. I really doubt you'll be able to change my mind, but I'll give you a chance to defend yourself before voting.
I think the problem with this analysis is that these are all clues from different deaths and thus pointing to different mafiosos. Unless BC has drastically changed the format of clue writing, you cannot link all of these clues to just one person. The only clue listed here which I even find to be remotely plausible is the first one, from the fire, since CO is a product of incomplete combustion.
My gut tells me if lynched, Monoxide will flip green. I voted Versatile, but I'm not comfortable with that and will change my pick to QuickStriker. I think maybe he is just strongly overreacting to being accused (some mafia probably would have reigned him in by now), but I just don't like reading his posts. Nothing personal, buddy.
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On April 27 2009 06:09 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2009 06:06 Qatol wrote:
Reading the voting thread, I am seeing that many are adamantly against double lynching day 3. Why? Please persuade me that it isn't a good idea. As for why I think it is a good idea, first of all, we get rolechecks tonight (assuming we have detectives left, we should have 1 or 2). second of all, I think we will have more players called out by day 3. Finally, we have lots of suspects I feel pretty good about right now.
Unlike you, I don't feel great about any of our current suspects. But I will vote for double lynch in the hopes that greater confidence arises during the next day/night and we will have the lynch ready.
Btw you haven't remarked on whether Pyrr ever said anything to you. Were you in contact before he died?
I don't think you have to fear from admitting this, after all you have bg protection.
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Ah. Completely missed that post :p
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On April 28 2009 11:50 Vivi57 wrote:
just out of curiosity, how many previous mayors were red and how many blue or green?
i don't think we've ever had a red mayor. in mafia two randombum was a mafia pardoner, but it didn't change things too drastically. Last game sog was a dt mayor i think. I can't recall any others off the top of my head.
edit: changed "i" to "it"
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On May 01 2009 13:50 Caller wrote:
Are we double lynching? if so then lets get both qatol and ace XDDDD
don't think double lynch got passed, did it?
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On May 01 2009 14:34 ZaplinG wrote:
This game is running in turtle time :X
+ Show Spoiler +
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On May 01 2009 14:52 Incognito wrote:
Goodies from a DT.
"only too see an uncomprehensable phrase before the tv exploded" IS a clue.
The "clumsiness" clue does not point to Qatol.
Enjoy.
hmm interesting. the two prime suspects for that clue iirc were Versatile and Qatol. Was there anyone else?
And obviously the first one was a clue, i don't know why someone would check on that... but at least we know for sure now i guess.
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hah, gg! sucks dying early before i even get a chance to make my mark 
only mafia member that really surprised me was 0cz3c. well played man.
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On May 08 2009 11:37 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2009 11:34 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 08 2009 11:33 Incognito wrote:
If there are dual mafias they have to kill each other to win please. Otherwise town = confused + screwed. I would have forced them to in the end, but as stated many times earlier by mafia members. Its in their best interest to rape the town first then eachother. They happened to trust eachother fully soon as they found eachother which in this game would have led to a double ko of the mafia. Um sure but the point is that if they don't know they have to kill each other till the end then they won't. Until you tell them. Telling them makes them nervous and makes them want to kill each other. Unless they want to be screwed/killed off first.
I think it's kind of like the prisoner's dilemma.
If Mafia A and B both know that only 1 family can win, an additional goal is finding the list of the other family (doesn't seem to be too hard). So A and B know each other's members, what do they do?
Say A chooses to snipe off B. This ensures that A will be the winning mafia team, but it also increases chance of victory for the town and provides clues. Thus this move is extremely risky early on and probably ensures town victory, barring the added variable of the CK. However, as the game progresses, one could expect that such an "all kill" is more likely.
In this situation, B has 2 options: die, or also snipe off A in a mirror betrayal. The latter is the lose-lose situation. The former is also not as desirable as mutual cooperation.
if both A and B choose to cooperate, this significantly increases the chance of a mafia family winning rather than the town. In the short term, this strategy is probably optimal: an uneasy truce. If the mafia knows that they can do this and the game will just end once town dies (see: this game) there's little reason for them to play differently, other than just for lols and for bragging rights.
I think this makes sense.
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On May 08 2009 11:48 LTT wrote:
Not quite. The way that the members and killpower was set up, it was nearly impossible for one side to take the other out in a single night. This meant leaving survivors who could then just out the entire other mafia team. Mafia fighting each other was more mutually assured destruction than the prisoner's dilemma.
Oh that is true. I forgot that KP would be less than the # of members.
On May 08 2009 11:49 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Part of the issue is, most vets here are efriends now. No one wants to fuck over their buddies. I mean if your red you have to kill green, but red vs red vs greens, friends are less likely to fuck eachother over, and that is kinda where the situation was this game. And with such a low mafia count this game, i would have to either increase mafia size, add more ck's or lots of vigis and millers.
Yeah, that's unavoidable. Best you can do without messing up the game is just hope people play by the honor code. Unfortunately it does not seem to work that well
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On May 08 2009 12:05 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2009 11:58 Qatol wrote:On May 08 2009 11:44 Fishball wrote:On May 08 2009 11:37 Incognito wrote:On May 08 2009 11:34 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On May 08 2009 11:33 Incognito wrote:
If there are dual mafias they have to kill each other to win please. Otherwise town = confused + screwed. I would have forced them to in the end, but as stated many times earlier by mafia members. Its in their best interest to rape the town first then eachother. They happened to trust eachother fully soon as they found eachother which in this game would have led to a double ko of the mafia. Um sure but the point is that if they don't know they have to kill each other till the end then they won't. Until you tell them. Telling them makes them nervous and makes them want to kill each other. Unless they want to be screwed/killed off first. Absolutely. I've already brought up this argument on page 51 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=91680¤tpage=51I've also discussed this topic on MSN with BC. Bottom line, Mafia parties can work together, but not win together. Who the hell would join a FFA Starcraft match, when you know you opponents would just gang up on you then ally end? If you read the mafia role, you will see that it says nothing about us killing other mafia. Besides, its totally infeasible when you consider our numbers. We HAD to unite. If we hadn't, we would have lost badly. I know, I never mentioned it was an original rule. It just HAS to be done this way, or else, the game itself would be pointless. When BC told me, "One of the Mafia families would just forfeit.", "Town has no chance, etc.", I said it doesn't matter, even if town is totally wiped out. Even if it is just "symbolic" for the two families to kill each other, the game has to be carried out till the end, or else all would deem pointless. This is also why I said on page 51, the town should not be able to throw the game.
100% agree here.
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On May 10 2009 09:44 HeavOnEarth wrote:
oh christ
mafia is serious business apparently o_o!!!
^ said that because(This was my first time at playing.) and..
Ok, maybe everyone just sucks/ignorant at mafia or its imbalanced, whatever.
But the biggest problem is, the majority of people are just first timers who don't really care/ have other things in their life, so you just need a list of people who actually want to play/commited.
It wouldn't matter if it was balanced then, because it would still be fun, and people would learn something ( with the mind games, ETC.)
Like, seriously some people that i won't list, on the town side, were complete assholes, that were still posting on TL and ignoring the mafia thread.
That isn't true. The majority of the players this game are those who have played in at least one game, many of them more than 2-3. Some of us were really busy (I was one of them) and couldn't post that much. And apparently that warranted a potential night 1 hit on me, lol.
And why wouldn't you list them? If they're making the game worse why should we let them play?
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Also i think another point everyone needs to take away from this, in terms of playing well:
Don't be such a retard with PM's if you are a blue.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.toothpastefordinner.com/070107/turtle-time.gif)
