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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
"he lay on the ground watching his friend die as the world slowly went black, all he could hear was footsteps walk past him, stop and snicker before continuing on, then he was dead." "The cupboards splintered open, and the man ducked to the side, and flew his arm out to the side waving an object at Infundibulum, with a wicked smile on his face." | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
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Scamp
United States1086 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On May 04 2009 18:55 Scamp wrote: It's not a good sign when the person running the game seems to want to speed it along and is commenting more than usual. Read my opening post  I do like faster games if possible, as activity lessons then, peoples finals killed it enough as it was. Plus talking is fun, its a sunday night and im bored. | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
I personally believe HeavOnEarth may be mafia. His name can be stretched to Heaven On Earth, and to go along with burning lungs, if you were in heaven (allegedly in the clouds) the pressure would be immense on your lungs, no? The Earth part also indicates your on earth when it happens. Just a thought. Clue: Nemy turned to the commotion and got up to save his friend, only to take a few steps and collapse, with a burning sensation in his lungs, he lay on the ground watching his friend die as the world slowly went black, all he could hear was footsteps walk past him, stop and snicker before continuing on, then he was dead. | ||
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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
On May 04 2009 20:26 Camlito wrote: Also i think we should think outside the box with the burning lungs feeling. I personally believe HeavOnEarth may be mafia. His name can be stretched to Heaven On Earth, and to go along with burning lungs, if you were in heaven (allegedly in the clouds) the pressure would be immense on your lungs, no? The Earth part also indicates your on earth when it happens. Just a thought. Clue: Honestly im linking that clue to JeeJee now. Most of the time im looking not at "how people die" but to other factors that repeat in the killings without repeating the same phrase. I mean remember how many times chiuiu repeated the shit falling from pockets and that was never a real clue? Thats why I strongly think this is actually JeeJee: snicker, wicked smile. | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
On May 04 2009 20:33 Camlito wrote: That's true, if jeejee's 2 alleged killings do match, you have something, but mine is pretty good if Nemy was the killers only kill thus far. On the other side i really like the clue to 3clipse. Note that it fits to Mafia behavior too (see voting pattern). | ||
Ver
United States2186 Posts
Town calling me out is the right move from their knowledge base but not the best overall. I can only hope the medics are better than last game. I said I'd be gone until mon/tues. However, I didn't even get to do research as I planned, instead I was out until thursday with my papers. Yeah, it's a discrepancy but stuff happens. I've been back since Thursday, as several people can attest to. My strategy was to use a mouth to continue to feign inactivity while still providing my usual level of input (hence this is stuff is basically just a refined version from what I sent them earlier). My reasons for this should be obvious, but if you aren't sure, see me getting triple hit last game day 1 since I put myself in the open. Some people questioned why I hadn't been killed and suggested that it meant I was on the mafia. I'll tell you why I wasn't killed; same reason Camlito wasn't (I thought he might've been contract killer earlier or even mafia but his current effort mostly rules that out), we were staying quiet, presumed afk and not helpful. Even if he/I were mafia though, we would still be vulnerable because there are two families. Now since we are very much in the open, we definitely are vulnerable. --------------------------- Firstly, information wise. BC threw a twist with the multiple families; however, I'm very surprised nobody has seriously thought about what the evidence means. Consider: so far we know that a) mafia have at least 3 hits per side b) nothing else concrete. Now many people have supposed that the mafia have 5-6 players per side or so (ridiculous). Think about it. In a 2 mafia game the mafia can, must, and will target each other. Therefore they require significantly more KP or numbers or both than in a regular game. To summarize the proof (which I'll post if wanted but I don't see a need), first compare Ace's game with 2 families to say the last game (20 total mafia, 20 KP, 84 people vs 10 total mafia, 6 KP, 65 people). Second think it through. If there are two mafia, the total mafia power must be significantly larger because they will waste a lot of KP + effort killing and sabotaging each other. 1st night, mafia had 2 KP each + Ace taking a hit. So they likely had a doublestack or missing hit somewhere that some dumbo never called. This means they must have at least 3 KP (unless losing Bockit forced the one family to lower to 2? I doubt it but it's a possibility.) 2nd night, things are trickier. From what I can tell, it looks like one mafia killed fakesteve, amber, and infundi since they were grouped together. But the other deaths are all hopelessly spread out. Did one mafia kill rage/truth? Showtime/laxer? Is this a viable assumption? I'm honestly lost but with 8 total kills, at least 1 going to the vigi/ck (ace), it *looks like* each mafia has between 3-4. But then how do we account for the day 1 low count? The next day will explain a lot. While it is uncertain for now, I think the mafia probably has 3 KP (total of 6, like last game). They definitely have more than 2 given last night, and could have 4. But that would make the 1st night hard to explain (3 missing hits + ace blocked???). Thus I think 3 is the safest bet, and there were 2 random kills in there from vigis/cks. Now there are two variables here, KP and numbers. So if mafia are weak in KP...they must be strong in numbers (making it a longer, less variable game, unlike Ace's). I believe BC balanced the game properly and given our knowledge of KP, the mafia must be more numerous than has been thought. 5-6? No way. Try 7-8. My guess is 8 per side. --------------------------- The consequences: Each side can therefore throw a considerable number of people for voting, much more than was thought (although I bet both sides have several inactives). The key figure to use is qatol. First off, there's a very high chance he is mafia (he would pobably be the leader of one of the mafia since he's a top player). I originally thought he could've been contract killer as well but I think at this point we have to go for the kill regardless as we are up against the ropes. The other mafia obviously think he's mafia too. As one mafia cannot kill the other mafia mayor without killing BGs and therefore they want him dead pronto (since killing the leader paralyzes a lot of mafia's who depend on them). This should show up in the votes against him (lots of mafia in the anti-qatol family should be there). These people are key because they've been able to stay under the radar so far by blending in with the anti-qatol bandwagons. Qatol's mafia should be easier to catch with more obvious measures. From this logic, let's go and see what we can get. -------------------------------------------------- Qatol list: semioldguy- I think he's a pretty solid suspect. Hasn't been helping as much as he should be/was last game. Maybe he's in finals? Apathetic? Who knows, but he hasn't said anything about external stuff, so don't give him the benefit of the doubt. GoodWill- Originally he laid low and tried to avoid calling attention to himself. Randomly he is now slipping in with the town bandwagon against Qatol. This fits my logic exactly, making him a strong suspect as well. motbob-I don't think he's mafia. Fishball- I'll be honest: I have a very difficult time reading Fishball. Can't say anything special here other than he's not contributing anything and can easily fit the pattern but who knows. LordWeird-This guy is very suspicious for the same reasons as coolcrimefighter (see below). I know Malongo wants him dead too and I'd totally support that but not based on clues because I don't trust clues. Also fyi, Malongo is innocent pretty sure. 3clipse-Could easily fit a low key mafia like the above guys. Definite suspect a well. Mynock-Here's a toughie. Mynock has been anti-qatol for awhile and hasn't contributed as much as normal. In particular, he generally makes a lot of well thought out posts in previous games but this game most of his posts have been sort and devoid of details/his typical thought processes, making me kinda leery. Now he may have wanted to hide like Camlito since he always dies early. However, he's definitely in the open now, so I hope we can see some good stuff from him if he's innocent. If not, he could easily be the leader of the non-qatol mafia family given his fierce opposition to Qatol. t_co-I think he's probably innocent although his behavior seems out of character given his inactivity in ace's game. coolcrimefighter-With a large mafia side and a large number of inactives mafia must have some too. Now this guy hasn't done anything all game except somehow escape an early lynch (it's these people we want to pay attention to). This is especially weird after how *awful* he acted. Yet he suddenly votes against Qatol without any reasoning? QuickStriker- Dead. His own fault though for acting like an 0cz3c version of mafia. Townies have been easy for Qatol to finger since they've acted suspicious. Mikeymoo <-- from Abstain- His vote from abstain to get closer to getting a lynch on Qatol makes him look pretty dang suspicious. Also, he fingered Monoxide early yet backed off when the town moved on to other targets and went with quickstriker on nothing. This could be legit, or could just be trying to avoid suspicion. Add to this his lack of contribution from a normally strong player and it's easy to see why I'm suspicious. 3 Lions- Looks just like the above guys in his category. Random vote at the end from nowhere hoping to get Qatol lynched at the last minute. Very questionable. In short, tiers of suspects: Random players who fit a possible pattern- coolcrimefighter lordweird goodwill 3clipse 3 lions Strong players acting out of character- semioldguy mikeymoo Mynock Uncertain but questionable- fishball- need help here I guarantee that there are at least a few innocents on this. However, i think it has the highest probability of mafia we can get. Feedback? Thoughts? Just an fyi. Because I was inactive so long, I have no information from behind the scenes which is how I usually determine a lot of my behavior analysis (like last game I figured out every good player was innocent before I died and it was mostly through pm's). If anyone has any private communication from these people I encourage you to post/pm it. Obviously it won't be the same as if I was the one laying traps for them but anything helps at this point as the town lack vital information. Will do the other list tomorrow. Very late here and I'm dead tired. | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On May 04 2009 20:26 Camlito wrote: Also i think we should think outside the box with the burning lungs feeling. I personally believe HeavOnEarth may be mafia. His name can be stretched to Heaven On Earth, and to go along with burning lungs, if you were in heaven (allegedly in the clouds) the pressure would be immense on your lungs, no? The Earth part also indicates your on earth when it happens. Just a thought. Clue: I don't think BC would think that deep to make a clue | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
On May 04 2009 22:11 Fishball wrote: I don't think BC would think that deep to make a clue You make an excellent point. Although it is the first clue for this guy maybe, so he probably just did a stretch. Never know . | ||
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Fishball
Canada4788 Posts
On May 04 2009 20:50 Ver wrote: Fishball- I'll be honest: I have a very difficult time reading Fishball. Can't say anything special here other than he's not contributing anything and can easily fit the pattern but who knows. I've been pretty much the same every game. I'm never the guy that slaps up big posts with clue analysis. I do speculate on my own, but mostly I read through the clues you guys have on hand and judge what makes sense and what doesn't. I also randomly chat with other players on MSN and accusing all of them Mafia The only time I become "very active" is when I actually have a job to do, (eg. last game, gathering roles and passing on information), or when I am accused and am on the verge of being lynched. | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
On May 04 2009 22:19 Fishball wrote: I've been pretty much the same every game. I'm never the guy that slaps up big posts with clue analysis. I do speculate on my own, but mostly I read through the clues you guys have on hand and judge what makes sense and what doesn't. I also randomly chat with other players on MSN and accusing all of them Mafia The only time I become "very active" is when I actually have a job to do, (eg. last game, gathering roles and passing on information), or when I am accused and am on the verge of being lynched. I can testify for the "accusing people" statement. | ||
mikeymoo
Canada7170 Posts
On May 04 2009 20:50 Ver wrote: Mikeymoo <-- from Abstain- His vote from abstain to get closer to getting a lynch on Qatol makes him look pretty dang suspicious. Also, he fingered Monoxide early yet backed off when the town moved on to other targets and went with quickstriker on nothing. This could be legit, or could just be trying to avoid suspicion. Add to this his lack of contribution from a normally strong player and it's easy to see why I'm suspicious. I abstained because I didn't read the thread and had no idea when the votes would be tallied. I then read the posts in the morning and switched my vote to Qatol. I honestly see no reason for that to be suspicious. Quickstriker had weak clue analysis, and was acting fishy in my eyes. There were no other targets I considered on the first day and I couldn't stand his big long posts. Kind of a weak defense, but it's true. I fingered Monoxide because I thought his finals were over, but they weren't. He's a friend of mine in real life, so once I found out his exams weren't over, I naturally backed off, as my arguments held little to no water. Lack of contribution? I've never done clue analysis, and the only game I was active in the thread was the game where BC called me out on Day 1. Otherwise I usually work behind the scenes. Everyone seems to remember from that one game, unfortunately, and always calls me out for not making big posts like I did then. Anyways, we MUST lynch Qatol tomorrow. As actives are being killed, the 3 votes are worth more and more. I'm going to read Camlito's clue analysis later today. My top three at this point in time: Qatol LordWeird Chuiu | ||
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mikeymoo
Canada7170 Posts
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Tricode
United States538 Posts
On May 04 2009 17:12 Malongo wrote: LOL how the hell can I kill you. In fact i cant do shit. At most i can vote and that doesnt do anything because the people i vote never get lynched anyways . If I asked you about the CK was because you really put too much effort into finding him, nothing more nothing less. And the only thing i said about you is IF VER FLIPS RED TRICODE IS TOO PM WISE. Dont you agree with me?No, i don't. You are saying just because Ver is red that I am red pm wise (that is just basically declaring i'm red and i should be killed right after Ver). That is a logical fallacy. Cause you don't know if i am red or not nor do i know if you are red or not. I stay with this, I'm not mafia. Also if for any reason Ver is not mafia I will totally pissed. The time the guy would have after he came back from his thing tuesday (like he mentioned in his early posts before i think roles were assigned) he did come back by a decent time where he was still catching up. He just didn't post yet and I told you why. That doesn't mean he is innocent, but I think you are being to rash if you are trying to put guilt onto him as of now. Anyways I told you I only recently contacted Ver, like i said in the pm. If you want I can prove pm wise/time that it started late. Second of all. I go with the saying, keep my friends close, but my enemies closer. You figure out what I mean by that. | ||
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Tricode
United States538 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Yes, my playing style has changed. Ace said it too, you have to change your style, and I agree with that. I don't intend to keep the same play-style for all the future Mafia games either, and this here is a start. But I simply refuse to play with this Town until Qatol is lynched. We're almost 100% sure he's Mafia, yet Town keeps getting swayed by his will. It's ridiculous. It really is. Caller killing Ace based upon Qatol's suggestion was crazy enough. You then go on and get swayed by him LITERALLY saving his neck by voting away from Qatol on QS. TF? And now Ver somehow accuses anybody voting for Qatol as potential Mafia? Oh, the Town will listen to that too, I'm sure. There was NO logic in hitting Ace. I exchanged a couple PMs with Ace just before he died where I said I'm not really suspicious of him, but actually I was sure he's not Mafia (I know his style somewhat myself, and NO way did that warrant a hit). Lynching QS over Qatol was the icing on the cake. The only positive thing we can find from it, is to look at his hidden supporters (not OPEN supporters, but people who tried to sway the vote away from him WITHOUT directly supporting him in the process), but that's about it. Maybe Malongo think he's not alone, but I think he's an optimist... Here's a thing: there's a reason I was never lynched in any of the previous Mafia games. I don't post stupid stuff. I don't do stupid things. Even when I'm Mafia I just try to play upon logic. That won't change. I don't even read the clue part, I can't figure out those riddles anyway. I try to base everything on behavioural analysis, and logic. And if the Town isn't willing to do the same, I can't do much myself, right? Again, I don't care if Qatol is Mafia or not (but I believe he is). If you think that's strange, you didn't understand my explanations above. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
There was NO logic in hitting Ace. I exchanged a couple PMs with Ace just before he died where I said I'm not really suspicious of him, but actually I was sure he's not Mafia (I know his style somewhat myself, and NO way did that warrant a hit). Lynching QS over Qatol was the icing on the cake. The only positive thing we can find from it, is to look at his hidden supporters (not OPEN supporters, but people who tried to sway the vote away from him WITHOUT directly supporting him in the process), but that's about it. Well, I think you're smashing caller a bit too hard. His move was somewhat reasonable given the way ace was playing and the accusations from Versatile who flipped green. That said, caller could have been mafia and used the hit to conceal himself, but if no clues stick to him tomorrow, we can assume he is indeed blue. That said, the Uff Da clumsy killer clue is a pretty solid link to Qatol, but I'm not sure exactly what we gain by killing him immediately, given that we can force his 3 votes to pad a votelist for someone the town agrees upon, and if he disagrees we simply move to lynch him. I'm around 90% certain Qatol is mafia at this point, so only a 100% sure kill would dissuade me. If the only person we can agree upon is Qatol, which is likely, we can just hang him, but tomorrow our DTs are going to come out or find a mouthpiece, and we might have a number of cluechecked 100% certain mafia to kill. Either way, people who have been PMing Qatol role information need to stop, and the medics need to pick their own targets to protect. Ver: you might have a point about the rivalry between families, especially with the town this weak, but I think there are too many assumptions in your analysis. For one, you assume that the opposing team recognizes Qatol as the head of a mafia family. Second you assume that the families are content with their situation regarding the town and aren't working together. Third you ignore the CKs in your mafia family size analysis. The CKs, from my analysis at the outset, are likely going to be allied with the mafia at this point because of their strength relative to ours, but which family? Would they have contacted Qatol? Would he have told them he was mafia? Unlikely given that we've seen a number of people obviously fishing in PMs. Also: Can someone explain why people are balls out for LordWeird? | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
On May 05 2009 02:35 L wrote: That said, the Uff Da clumsy killer clue is a pretty solid link to Qatol, but I'm not sure exactly what we gain by killing him immediately, given that we can force his 3 votes to pad a votelist for someone the town agrees upon, and if he disagrees we simply move to lynch him. I'm around 90% certain Qatol is mafia at this point, so only a 100% sure kill would dissuade me. I believe somewhere in this thread, someone mentioned that a DT clue-checked this and said that that clue does not link to Qatol. Of course, we can't be sure how much credibility to give this, but I thought I should mention that. On May 05 2009 02:35 L wrote:Also: Can someone explain why people are balls out for LordWeird? I can't find Malongo's post where he makes a case against LordWeird, but I think it has to do with his profile, which links with the hiccupping, staggering person who killed Showtime!. His profile picture shows him taking a drink, which fits with the killer's seemingly drunken behavior. | ||
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