EPTMafia VII - GG - Page 47
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L
Canada4732 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Chuiu is my stronger case here. I think he is mafia based on behavioral and clue factors. The clue is day 2 murder of Bockit. Chuiu's profile is one of the Brain from Pinky and the Brain. The Brain punishes Pinky by beating him over the head when he does something wrong, and does it repeatedly because Pinky is too retarded to realize it hurts and change his behavior. Bockit was killed by repeated bashing to the head. Similarly, rage was also killed by a bash to the head. Also, the Brain is a cruel little asshole, so I'm sure he would snicker at nemY's death. Behaviorally, I would imagine that someone who ran 5 previous mafia games would have something more to say in our threads than staying quiet. He should have extreme amounts of insight into the operations of the game, yet says nothing. Why? Dreamflower I think is mafia because he follows most of Qatol's votes, and usually changes his votes right after Qatol does. Also, I suspect he may be FakeSteve[TPR]'s murderer but I'm not sure if that's the case. More digging later. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Qatol (90%) Chuiu (80%) Lordweird (80%) Monoxide (75%) Dreamflower (shaky) | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Also, Qatol's medic list may be a red herring--especially if he flips mafia. I think the fact that he was two-faced with that list, regardless of whether he's green or not, warrants a lynch. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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JeeJee
Canada5652 Posts
this game is pretty funny | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On May 04 2009 16:21 Malongo wrote: Great. Qatol i hope you understand you are next. Medics: Dont protect anyone on Qatols medic list. Find someone you think that mafia will target and protect him. I could ask for protection but i dont need it. People i think will be target tonight: - Caller - Rol. - Milkymoo. And hell yeah, vote double lynch next day and lynch Qatol. Maybe we should point out that Ace and Showtime were on the list. They were town. Malongo is overreacting? On May 04 2009 16:57 Ace wrote: I love collective stupidity  Amen. Which reminds me I should change my profile after this game's over... 2. Malongo this is not your town. Which brings me to my main points. 1. Ver. Although it is true that lower KP needs to be compensated somehow in a dual mafia game, it also is a bad assumption to think that mafia should have around 8 mafia. I could go into more detail about this but this is pretty irrelevant right now. So for now, lets just ignore the mafia numbers because it won't help us yet until we start getting mafia numbers down. 2. Lynching Qatol on that bandwagon was pretty useless to me when it was discussed during the past few days. But Ver raises a good point. If Qatol is mafia people would likely vote in groups for/against him. I have not seen a distinct voting pattern in either of the last two days, but I've come up with this: 3clipse coolcrimefighter GoodWill t_co These people voted against Qatol today (Day 3). These people also voted for Qatol for mayor. So if these people are mafia then they're on the mafia team opposite Qatol. I find it unlikely that they would have voted for Qatol if they were in his family in such a close lynch. Of these, 3clipse has fit both the clue and the behavior analysis. However, 3. The list brought up seems to bring more to the table when talking about Qatol and lynching. Lets see if Qatol votes for one of the people mentioned. If not it would be a pretty compelling case that he is mafia. Not only because of previous behavior, but it would just be a logical lynch. Lynching Qatol now would be logical. If he's mafia, that's great. More information for us. If he's green, we're screwed but I'm not sure if Qatol can be town unless one of the mafia is purposely not voting for him. There's way too few votes against him for him to be town. Otherwise I'd think both mafia families would be after him considering his unfavorability. CK comes to mind as an option here. Either way, we still need to be discussing ideas now. Not leading a bandwagon. @ L: Mafia wouldn't be working together if they knew each other/suspected each other. It doesn't work. Since they know they can be killed any time by the other opposing team, you'd pretty much have to kill them if you know them. End of my thoughts for now. Lets wait till the day post to see who exactly to accuse. But knowing Qatol won't be able to vote for himself I think it might be a good idea to discuss who we should be asking him to vote for. 3clipse comes up to my mind. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
On May 05 2009 04:03 t_co wrote: I think dreamflower and Chuiu are mafia. ... Dreamflower I think is mafia because he follows most of Qatol's votes, and usually changes his votes right after Qatol does. Also, I suspect he may be FakeSteve[TPR]'s murderer but I'm not sure if that's the case. More digging later. Just wanted to respond to this... It's definitely true that my voting record has been less than exemplary. To address t_co's observation, however, I am usually a late voter, partly because I'm cautious by nature and partly because I've been painfully absent-minded about voting now that the votes are in a separate blog rather than here in the Mafia thread. So, I do tend to vote after other people already have voted, including Qatol. All my reasons for voting can be found in the voting blog. On Day Two, I first voted for JeeJee because I was suspicious of the way he flared up after being accused after days of silence (especially as he used to be quite active in previous games) and a weak connection I made to the tears of angst in his quote to fusionsdf's killer pressing something into his eyes. After JeeJee corrected my definition of "angst" and, more importantly, L mentioned that JeeJee usually acts this way early in games, I transferred my vote to Versatile. I thought her quote was the best connection to Pyrrhuloxia's killer, who tripped and dodged the bullets. Given how little behavior there was to analyze at first, I felt more comfortable relying on clue analysis. During this, Qatol first voted for Monoxide but then switched to JeeJee before I even voted, and finally settled on Versatile after I had already switched my vote. On Day Three, I voted for Quickstriker because I thought his insisting on his being an inexperienced newbie (usually not a good sign) and his extremely long posts I also found one of Bockit's early posts saying, essentially, "Don't pay attention to Quickstriker," which to me seemed like he was trying to deflect attention from him. As for my probe icon, many people have probe unit icons. And BC has only once ever used a unit icon as a clue, and only then for an inactive player with a blank profile. Oh, and by the way, I'm a girl. Just thought I should mention that. It's kind of funny but also really, really weird to be called "he." | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
Malongo's case against LordWeird: On May 02 2009 17:48 Malongo wrote: Showtime! and laxercannon headed for the gunshots, hoping to be able to save whomever they could. As they ran, they saw a man hiccupping and swaying moving towards them. Showtime moved to see if he was ok, and moved his hands to steady him, the next thing Showtime! knew, he had a knife stuck in his chest. Laxercannon turned, and drawing a knife of his own he moved to attack the man, only to stop dead, as an arrow pierced his neck. As laxercannon fell, he saw a man stepping out of a nearby alley. The man is DRUNK. I ask the real townies to vote lynch lordweird. Note that his profile can be linked to other clues like day 2 the guy that does something in the eyes of his victim and others. I ask to skip lynching qatol for now. The reason is quite simple: he is quite likely to be mafia but IF there are two mafias in the game his 3 votes can be useful for the town. If we lynch Qatol at this stage we lose that, also note how easily Qatol got his first votes to get lynched, and the profile from those players. DT information on Qatol: On May 01 2009 14:52 Incognito wrote: Goodies from a DT. "only too see an uncomprehensable phrase before the tv exploded" IS a clue. The "clumsiness" clue does not point to Qatol. Enjoy. @Ver: Thank you for your discussion of Mafia and your behavior analysis. I just wanted to mention that semioldguy has said he has had troubles relating to graduation, which is why he has been quiet. So, I do think we should give him the benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, I agree with your tiers of suspects. | ||
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Chuiu
3470 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
On May 05 2009 09:17 Incognito wrote: Maybe we should point out that Ace and Showtime were on the list. They were town. Malongo is overreacting? Amen. Which reminds me I should change my profile after this game's over... 2. Malongo this is not your town. Which brings me to my main points. 1. Ver. Although it is true that lower KP needs to be compensated somehow in a dual mafia game, it also is a bad assumption to think that mafia should have around 8 mafia. I could go into more detail about this but this is pretty irrelevant right now. So for now, lets just ignore the mafia numbers because it won't help us yet until we start getting mafia numbers down. 2. Lynching Qatol on that bandwagon was pretty useless to me when it was discussed during the past few days. But Ver raises a good point. If Qatol is mafia people would likely vote in groups for/against him. I have not seen a distinct voting pattern in either of the last two days, but I've come up with this: 3clipse coolcrimefighter GoodWill t_co These people voted against Qatol today (Day 3). These people also voted for Qatol for mayor. So if these people are mafia then they're on the mafia team opposite Qatol. I find it unlikely that they would have voted for Qatol if they were in his family in such a close lynch. Of these, 3clipse has fit both the clue and the behavior analysis. However, 3. The list brought up seems to bring more to the table when talking about Qatol and lynching. Lets see if Qatol votes for one of the people mentioned. If not it would be a pretty compelling case that he is mafia. Not only because of previous behavior, but it would just be a logical lynch. Lynching Qatol now would be logical. If he's mafia, that's great. More information for us. If he's green, we're screwed but I'm not sure if Qatol can be town unless one of the mafia is purposely not voting for him. There's way too few votes against him for him to be town. Otherwise I'd think both mafia families would be after him considering his unfavorability. CK comes to mind as an option here. Either way, we still need to be discussing ideas now. Not leading a bandwagon. @ L: Mafia wouldn't be working together if they knew each other/suspected each other. It doesn't work. Since they know they can be killed any time by the other opposing team, you'd pretty much have to kill them if you know them. End of my thoughts for now. Lets wait till the day post to see who exactly to accuse. But knowing Qatol won't be able to vote for himself I think it might be a good idea to discuss who we should be asking him to vote for. 3clipse comes up to my mind. The way you respond to my posts is useless. Qatol is 100% mafia look at his erratic behaviour, look at his lynchs (YES hes the one lynching 3 times) Look at what he said to Ace before viging him: "I cant be vigied so you got vigied i got lynched", guess what, the town leader after that lynched Quickstriker. Cant you fucking see that he is just buying time? or you dont want to see it? really? At this point im working in this thesis: Both mafia had contact first day. Why? because Qatol someone i consider 100% mafia at this point didnt wanted to lynch JeeJee another 100% mafia in my book, not just because of clues but because after being "saved" has done nothing. 0 none. The only real reason for him to stay alive is because he is mafia. Maybe both mafias dont want to hit eachother until X point or something but this is what I think Qatol and JeeJee are mafia. And WTF this is obviously my town, stop trolling. | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
@L: Here are the posts I mentioned in response to your question Thanks, I was under the impression that the clue check was for how incomprehensible Uff Da was, but I wanted to be sure. Thanks for clearing that up for me.The LordWeird connection seems a bit trivial, but that's just me. @ L: Mafia wouldn't be working together if they knew each other/suspected each other. It doesn't work. Since they know they can be killed any time by the other opposing team, you'd pretty much have to kill them if you know them. I only like to assume things when the individual axiomic assumptions have merit. In the current instance, even if ver is right and we're dealing with 15 mafia players with a kp of 6 combined, if mafia cannibalize each other early, they will lose. There is no way of winning the game if mafia start hitting each other. Your conclusion rests on an assumption which cannot be the case, so I can't agree with your argumentation. Qatol and JeeJee are mafia I honestly don't think JeeJee is mafia and I think you've improperly rushed to conclusions about him. Qatol very well might be, however. I could be wrong; I have been before. Our only confirmed mafia -> player behavioral connection was bockit deflecting attention from retardstriker, so mafia are obviously throwing up red herrings to keep us wasting time. I was one of the first people to say so, but no one really listened to that. Our only other connection was the proven innocent versatile calling out ace, and THAT was false as well. So our support/condemn information really hasn't payed off for us yet, so I'd caution against using it as a key piece of information in getting someone hung. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
I say we double lynch JeeJee and Qatol today. You mother fuckers are dead. | ||
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
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RebirthOfLeGenD
USA5860 Posts
This is a list of medic protection candidates.
From what I can remember, these are the only people who have been useful active and seemingly town aligned recently. If anyone else comes to mind I will quote and edit the list. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
I only like to assume things when the individual axiomic assumptions have merit. In the current instance, even if ver is right and we're dealing with 15 mafia players with a kp of 6 combined, if mafia cannibalize each other early, they will lose. There is no way of winning the game if mafia start hitting each other. Your conclusion rests on an assumption which cannot be the case, so I can't agree with your argumentation. What???? Are you trying to SOUND smart? How is there no way of winning the game if mafia hit each other? Are you mafia? I was just responding to your comment: Second you assume that the families are content with their situation regarding the town and aren't working together. Maybe I didn't phrase it in the best way possible. Both mafia families can't work together since they would be forced to kill each other if they ever got the feeling anyone was a member of the other mafia family. The mafia cannot risk exposing themselves to the other mafia to "cooperate". Hence, this assumption would be correct unless you want to assume the mafia are idiots. Sorry if there's a misunderstanding here but you are not making any sense at all right now. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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L
Canada4732 Posts
What???? Are you trying to SOUND smart? Not really, but I get that a lot. How is there no way of winning the game if mafia hit each other? Durr, the town wins instantly and the mafia die. From their perspective THEY CANNOT WIN if they start killing each other. That means they WON'T. You, however, have assumed that mafia will not trade information because that will automatically lead to such killing and I've said that's not the case because its not a smart move from either mafia team to start shit with the other. Basically it works like this: If both mafia teams know each other on day 1 you've stated that they will hit each other immediately. If that's the case, the town wins almost instantly: 6 mafia die the first day, which represents up to half of the total mafia on the game. It isn't favorable for either mafia team to move against the other until the town is out of the way. Since that's the case, and you've assumed the opposite, I can't agree with your conclusion. Both mafia families can't work together since they would be forced to kill each other if they ever got the feeling anyone was a member of the other mafia family. See, they're forced to kill each other regardless near the end of the game, but while the town represents a larger threat than the other team, they have more incentive to work together, because otherwise NEITHER OF THEM have the possibility of winning. If both families share information, both families are in the same position regarding information the other team has. Neither family gains a net advantage against the other. Since they won't be killing off opposing mafia, they maximize their anti-town kp and increase their collective chances against the town, so mafia makes a NET GAIN in their chances if they share information. Not only CAN the mafia work together, but its in their favor if they do. Assuming they aren't taking the best action they can is somewhat wishful thinking. This is really simple logic. Take a three player free for all in your favorite RTS: its ALWAYS in the best interest of the two weaker players to team up to knock down the stronger player, because 1) if they attack each other instead, the stronger player's advantage over them increases and 2) if one allies with the stronger player, his position relative to the stronger player is unchanged after they wipe out the third party, putting him at a disadvantage. I hope that clears up any misunderstanding you had regarding my logic. | ||
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