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Canada7170 Posts
Regarding Monoxide, I can let the town know this (I know him irl, but we don't live in the same city anymore).
He was done finals a couple days ago, and had the whole of yesterday to post. I'm pretty sure he's reading the thread, as he keeps asking me over msn if I've read mafia or how the game is going etc etc.
In previous discussions I've had with him, he tells me how OP mafia is, and how easy it would be to win with red alignment. His mind games are very strong, so although he's not posting, he's both a liability and an asset (depending on his alignment, obviously).
If he checks TL, it's probably in the afternoon at his time, so in roughly 6 hours I'd imagine. I shot him a PM to tell him to get active and explain himself, essentially. I think I played one game with him and he never asked how the game was going or what not. He wasn't mafia that game.
I don't think the evidence is insurmountable, but it's something to keep in mind.
At this point in time, I'd lean towards behaviour analysis moreso than clue analysis.
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Canada7170 Posts
Actually throughout the entire game, I'd lean that way, and reach for clue analysis when we have to.
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4492 Posts
On April 26 2009 12:51 Qatol wrote:I am trying to be VERY generous with the term "inactive" but have made another list. For god's sake people. Don't join this game if you can't say anything. Here is the list of inactives: Show nested quote +
13. Mandalor
19. Hyperbola
25. Camlito
26. Mynock
28. Versatile
29. 3 Lions
32. truthbringer
36. Rage
37. Motbob
39. Blue_Arrow
43. Amber[light]
44. Zapling
45. Aznvaliance
46. Laxercannon
50. scamp
51. goodwill
52. CompX
53. coolcrimefighter
54. YDG
55. Mista
People on the list who voted: Show nested quote +
29. 3 Lions
32. truthbringer
46. Laxercannon
50. scamp
51. goodwill
53. coolcrimefighter
54. YDG
List of people with 1 one-liner post, but posted SOMETHING: Show nested quote +
13. Mandalor - "just posting to say I'm not inactive. I'll try to catch up later."
19. Hyperbola - "Hello my fellow townies. Just letting y'all know that I am active I've just been rather busy lately."
36. Rage - Tells me I am quick to make inactivity conclusions and theorizes about how the DTs got hit (2 posts total, both with very little content)
43. Amber[light] - explained that his finals start in a little over a week
44. Zapling - "vote me for mayor wooo ill be a good one" "we did last game -.-" (referring to a mayoral lynch of a mafioso)
50. scamp - Posted about his reasoning for voting, said he is too intimidated to post
51. goodwill - "cool, let's lynch quickstirker next" "I think our next lynch candidate should be one of the individuals in the detectives' circles, the chance of one family being able to hit 2 detectives together is one out of 3025."
53. coolcrimefighter - "well I've recently gotten addicted to altitude so thats why I've been inactive to make myself unshady here are some infoz about me
I am a D protoss
my name is coolcrimefighter
I am not shady" "indeed" "I think you guys are reading into my name too much"
55. Mista - “Still taking my own sweet time ..”
List of people I consider to be exceptions due to school: Show nested quote +
7.Fishball - “I would not have access to TL from Thursday to Sunday (Back on Sunday).”
10. Ver - "Due to an intense finals period I won't be on until a brief bit friday, and then I will probably go do research and will be tied up until mon/tues."
24. Mikeymoo - "mikeymoo and I are going to be inactive for about 24 hours due to an upcoming final. Sorry" (monoxide posted this)
27. Mynock - "It's a bit difficult for me to keep up with it all ATM due to exam papers and lots of translation work to do (some other people mentioned, it's exams season for some of us now :o)"
47. Monoxide - “mikeymoo and I are going to be inactive for about 24 hours due to an upcoming final. Sorry”
You're a bit too quick to write me off as inactive there. Not only did I say I have very limited time to check this thread, I'm actually checking it  . And I've posted, too.
Anyway, I'm not a fan of lynching on 1-2 days worth of clues (and I can't interpret clues anyway), but if I had to choose, my choice would fall on JeeJee, as explained by several people before me (behavioural pattern, Bockit-PMs, clues...).
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4492 Posts
On April 26 2009 22:36 mikeymoo wrote:
Regarding Monoxide, I can let the town know this (I know him irl, but we don't live in the same city anymore).
He was done finals a couple days ago, and had the whole of yesterday to post. I'm pretty sure he's reading the thread, as he keeps asking me over msn if I've read mafia or how the game is going etc etc.
In previous discussions I've had with him, he tells me how OP mafia is, and how easy it would be to win with red alignment. His mind games are very strong, so although he's not posting, he's both a liability and an asset (depending on his alignment, obviously).
If he checks TL, it's probably in the afternoon at his time, so in roughly 6 hours I'd imagine. I shot him a PM to tell him to get active and explain himself, essentially. I think I played one game with him and he never asked how the game was going or what not. He wasn't mafia that game.
I don't think the evidence is insurmountable, but it's something to keep in mind.
At this point in time, I'd lean towards behaviour analysis moreso than clue analysis.
Those are some good points, and cast quite a shadow over Monoxide. But obviously we first have to hear his version of the story.
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On April 26 2009 23:06 mikeymoo wrote:
Actually throughout the entire game, I'd lean that way, and reach for clue analysis when we have to.
I agree, especially given how obscure BC's clues seem to be from his last game and from the little we've had so far this game. The only reason I'd shy away from relying too heavily on behavior analysis is that it still is exams season for most players, so some do have a legitimate excuse to be quieter than usual. From my own experience, "finals week" can be any week between mid-April to mid-June for different schools. So, I think the best strategy is to try and combine clue analysis with behavior analysis, by either doing what MrBabyHands did in Chuiu's last game of finding suspicious people through behavior analysis and matching them up to clues or finding people through clues and seeing if those people have been acting funny or contradictory lately.
So far, I think the best candidates for lynching ("best" meaning "tenuous, but a little less so than the alternatives") are Versatile and JeeJee. Versatile showed herself to be an intelligent, thoughtful and active player in Ace's and Chuiu's but hasn't said anything at all here, not even stopping in to vote. That, and her quote about her errors turning out correct, which sounds like how Pyrrhuloxia's killer acted, makes her seem suspicious.
JeeJee has also been pretty inactive, and his response to Qatol's accusation seems more like an inept attempt at deflecting blame onto someone else rather than self-defense. He first says that he has ideas but doesn't want to post them (usually not a good sign - I mean, even I post my ideas and I know they're pretty bad, but I know discussion keeps this game active and might help inspire someone else). Then he turns on Qatol by referring to his quote "Uff Da" and saying his profile contains nothing else to make clues from...even though Qatol has a quote in his profile as well, a line about duct tape from Burn Notice. In addition, perhaps JeeJee's quote about tears of angst could match up with Fusionsdf's killer pressing something into his eyes? It's a very simplistic link, but I imagine if someone was pressing something into my eyes, I'd probably cry tears of pain too.
I'm not really sold on Monoxide or the other suspects who have been named yet. Nor on a double lynch. We have too many possibilities and not enough certainties right now, I think.
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so looks like people are lynching me based on a bandwagon started by chuiu and enforced by qatol and showtime, without actual reasoning and they are also voting for a double lynch. that's interesting, especially because of my leads on qatol i posted earlier (p23), as well as my leads on showtime which i haven't posted,
i'd like people to look at three things
a) how the wagon started
b) my post re: qatol
c) their overall demeanor in this thread
i'm on the town's side and i have nothing to hide. qatol on the other hand . . .
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lol dreamflower. are you seriously going to link that to me based on your misunderstanding of the english language? go look up what angst means. here's a hint, it doesn't mean pain.
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What are your leads on Showtime! The general connection of his name to the TV's in Day 1?
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Wow, just got caught up on the thread and see I am a suspect.
I've been very busy with work lately and this is the first chance I've had to catch up, my apologies to BC and the town for being so inactive.
Many of you have admitted I am a decent mafia player; with that in mind, if I were mafia, why in the WORLD would I be stupid enough to change my entire playing style up? Clearly, it's made me very suspicious to some of you.
Furthermore, if I were an inactive mafia, I'd bet there be at least one or two indirect defenses of me; I've been in contact with no one, and there have been zero defenses for me.
I'm going to go back over the clues and do some analysis now that I have some free time.
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While JeeJee seems extremely defensive to me, I think he does have a point about how the snowball against him isn't backed by quite as much as some of the other accused. At this point I'm going to go with Monoxide, I think.
As for Qatol, I think we have to decide whether or not we want to play the odds. I think he's probably legit, but he's completely unaccountable. So we basically have a 4/5 chance of a small towny advatage if we centralize power in him (being that he can't be easily killed, is active and smart), but a 1/5 chance of a large towny disadvantage if he's mafia of any kind. If we picked another vet who knows how to run things (Showtime, Ver, Ace, etc.) and ran several rolechecks on them, we would have either a 98% or 96% confirmation (depending on if there are 1 or 2 GF's). However, this would waste rolechecks and our organizer would be more vulnerable and need extensive medic protection.
Actually, now that I think or it, it would be practically impossible to keep one of them alive if the mafia wants them killed. Even if they only have 4 KP we might need all of our medic force on it. This makes me think Qatol or decentralization on info are our best policies.
Thoughts? Any way we can get reasonable confirmation of Qatol?
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Day 1:
- It took hours for BC to die; why would mafia feel comfortable leaving him there, and not finishing the job themselves? All the other mafia deaths were quick.
- I also think “bowl” is a clue, along with “broken on the floor”
- Fire, explosions stick out to me, maybe there will be something coming up in the next day posts.
Day 2:
- Fusiondf was killed extremely and maybe unnaturally fast. They split up, one through the front, and one through the back, and yet fusion is dead by the time pyrr makes it through the door.
- I think Nemy was killed by bockit’s mafia, because there is a trust described there when he “gets up to save his friend”.
Day 1 and Day 2 Connections:
- BC is caught unawares + scar was distracted by the phrase on the television + fusion had something pressed into his eyes by the mafia + bockit not seeing his attacker. All of these in conjunction make me think sight is a clue here.
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First off I would like to begin by apologizing for my inactivity. I had a monster exam friday night and then didn't do anything all saturday. In my time , currently, it is sunday afternoon and I will be active from now on. So to everyone, sorry. Now, I would like to begin by saying that I am not mafia. For those of you who believe me just from that statement, thanks? But for the majority of you, what solid clue evidence do you have that I am mafia?
i.e. Night 1; Bockit's death = slammed his head into juke box = SC2 DT profile = Monoxide.
Note these are just a few examples. If you want more just ask.
uhh... I don't see it....Can you give me more examples, and I will tell you why they don't apply.
If you guys really do lynch me, that will be a clear indication of the mistake that you guys are making.
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I think behavioral analysis is not usable this game. Why? Because behavioral analysis allows mafia members to sacrifice themselves to gain our trust.
What about trust? I want to warn the town that this game, GFs/mafia have a much greater incentive to sacrifice 1-2 of their own members to gain trust with the town. Why? Because they have 5-6 mafia each, and their KP is only 3, and they have another family to worry about. Each mafia member matters less to KP than gaining the town's trust. The town can help them lynch out mafia and give them medic protection from the hits of the other mafia; this is worth much more than the measly 1/2 KP per player they get in my opinion.
How can a mafia sacrifice themselves? Not by simply just accusing each other, but by deliberately lying low and altering behavior, then by having another mafia accuse them of it.
The only analysis they can't change is BC's clues. Hence why I think we should look at those clues first and build lists based off of them, and go for behavioral analysis as a second tier we take with a HUGE grain of salt.
With the above being said, I vote to lynch Monoxide because I think his clue analysis is strongest--succinct and direct.
Also we should be focusing on the eye clue here that Ver posted about. Lets go profile hunting here, as that's where clues usually are drawn from.
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On April 26 2009 21:33 Showtime! wrote:
Annnd, I'd like to direct your attention to a few posts by our beloved Pyr before shit hit the fan. Either way, as a DT he was far too active in the thread and that is why he most likely received his fate. It was luck more than anything else, or yes it is possible that he RCed a GF faking to be a DT and PMed him, but the chances of that happening are slim to none.
I really don't think luck had anything to do with the death of the two DTs. There were only four people killed meaning that the mafia either stacked up their hits or our medics/vets absorbed a few hits.
I also note that none of the people killed were on Qatol's medic list. Ace did say he took a hit and he's on the list. So unless all the mafia combined start off with a KP of 5 then I'm reasonably certain they stacked up these hits. And if these hits were stacked then Pyr dying had nothing to do with luck.
I'm very skeptical of anyone Pyr may have trusted with PMs or whatnot. Clearly Qatol comes under suspicion, as do veterans of TL mafia who would talk a lot behind the scenes. Since Qatol is the only person I can be sure to suspect, I'd suggest taking a good look at QuickStriker. Qatol made a point not to target him with his mayoral lynch although QS has been a suspicious character for several people so far.
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On April 27 2009 04:25 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2009 21:33 Showtime! wrote:
Annnd, I'd like to direct your attention to a few posts by our beloved Pyr before shit hit the fan. Either way, as a DT he was far too active in the thread and that is why he most likely received his fate. It was luck more than anything else, or yes it is possible that he RCed a GF faking to be a DT and PMed him, but the chances of that happening are slim to none. I really don't think luck had anything to do with the death of the two DTs. There were only four people killed meaning that the mafia either stacked up their hits or our medics/vets absorbed a few hits. I also note that none of the people killed were on Qatol's medic list. Ace did say he took a hit and he's on the list. So unless all the mafia combined start off with a KP of 5 then I'm reasonably certain they stacked up these hits. And if these hits were stacked then Pyr dying had nothing to do with luck. I'm very skeptical of anyone Pyr may have trusted with PMs or whatnot. Clearly Qatol comes under suspicion, as do veterans of TL mafia who would talk a lot behind the scenes. Since Qatol is the only person I can be sure to suspect, I'd suggest taking a good look at QuickStriker. Qatol made a point not to target him with his mayoral lynch although QS has been a suspicious character for several people so far.
This entire post makes a lot of sense. Two DTs off the bat pretty much ensures that there was an information leak somewhere. If there is a way to verify the folks Pyrr was talking to, we should go that route, since it's almost guaranteed that there's at least one mafia in that number.
This puts pressure on you, Qatol, since you were talking to Pyrr extensively, and we can surmise that the two of you were most likely speaking to some of the same people. Furthermore, it falls to you because you are our Mayor, and our rallying point, at least for the time being.
Also, Pyrr is ALWAYS active, even when he's mafia, so that's not a valid excuse as to why he got killed.
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On April 27 2009 03:03 Monoxide wrote:
uhh... I don't see it....Can you give me more examples, and I will tell you why they don't apply.
Certianly.
"Bloodyc0bbler was left to die slowly"
Carbon monoxide poisoning is a slow death.
"Scaramanga handed some parcels to a courier, and closing his door, walked to his living room, and began throwing stacks of paper into his fireplace"
This produces carbon monoxide.
"Pyrrhuloxia fired, just as his opponent tripped forward just under the bullets path before stumbling into, and stabbing pyrrhuloxia"
This death was basically accidental, as carbon monoxide poisoning is in most cases.
"Nemy turned to the commotion and got up to save his friend, only to take a few steps and collapse, with a burning sensation in his lungs"
While carbon monoxide poisoning is painless, you can't deny that this is the strongest clue so far that can be traced to a single person.
I really doubt you'll be able to change my mind, but I'll give you a chance to defend yourself before voting.
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think your vote counts unless you place it in the Mafia voting blog, found here.
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On April 27 2009 04:39 3clipse wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2009 03:03 Monoxide wrote:
uhh... I don't see it....Can you give me more examples, and I will tell you why they don't apply.
Certianly. "Bloodyc0bbler was left to die slowly" Carbon monoxide poisoning is a slow death. "Scaramanga handed some parcels to a courier, and closing his door, walked to his living room, and began throwing stacks of paper into his fireplace" This produces carbon monoxide. "Pyrrhuloxia fired, just as his opponent tripped forward just under the bullets path before stumbling into, and stabbing pyrrhuloxia" This death was basically accidental, as carbon monoxide poisoning is in most cases. "Nemy turned to the commotion and got up to save his friend, only to take a few steps and collapse, with a burning sensation in his lungs" While carbon monoxide poisoning is painless, you can't deny that this is the strongest clue so far that can be traced to a single person. I really doubt you'll be able to change my mind, but I'll give you a chance to defend yourself before voting.
Look, Monoxide might still be a suspect but I won't accept this burning sensation of the lungs. I think Nemy got a bad drink slipped in.
The drink and Monoxide one doesn't make sense to me. Plus Bockit and Nemy didn't feel tired and slowly pass out. It wasn't like they felt dizzy, began stumbling, and/or most importantly feeling tired.
I feel the Versitale clue fits in more for the stumbling and killing pyrr, just cause of her profile saying "even my errors are correct" the error let the person dodge a bullet, survive, and still kill their target. (I'm not saying it's the strongest clue, but i find it more probable then Monoxide clue.)
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Qatol FYI I did vote (if you're referring to the mayoral vote).
And just because I'm not actively posting doesn't mean I'm not participating.
Honestly it's a toss-up between whether to lynch Monoxide or QuickStriker. I mean you look at the clues for QS and here:
As he reached the top of the stairs, he heard a sound behind him, he turned, just in time to see a lunging figure bowl into him, flinging him down the stairs, leaving him broken on the floor.
Pyrrhuloxia opened his mouth in shock and pulling his gun he saw a knife fly by his head, whipping into the wall beside him, he turned and saw a figure with another knife in his hand rushing towards him.
I mean if those were clues they are give-aways, but you look at QS's profile and there's nothing except an anime character with two different colored eyes. I'm not sure if you have anything to confirm he's not mafia, but he kinda makes me suspicious.
I'm not going to re-iterate everything said about Monoxide, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was mafia as well. I'm going to place my vote for QuickStriker though, so even if he's not lynched, detectives will have something to work off of.
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On April 27 2009 04:50 Tricode wrote:
Look, Monoxide might still be a suspect but I won't accept this burning sensation of the lungs. I think Nemy got a bad drink slipped in.
The drink and Monoxide one doesn't make sense to me. Plus Bockit and Nemy didn't feel tired and slowly pass out. It wasn't like they felt dizzy, began stumbling, and/or most importantly feeling tired.
I'm not implying that they were actually gassed, I'm just bring up references to the substance that have been injected into the text. Since he hasn't gotten back yet and I'm going offline, I'm putting in my vote for Monoxide.
Make sure you guys all vote in the link Versatile provided if you still haven't. I'd like to have seen a deadline for this, but in lieu of one we don't want town affairs being dictated by a select few if you miss it.
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EPT
