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Some clue analysis for Day 2:
poked around the mayor’s office
Qatol is our mayor...
whipping into the wall beside him,
missed the first time, bad aim, clumsiness
Pyrrhuloxia fired, just as his opponent tripped forward just under the bullets path before stumbling into
luck Uff Da from Qatol's profile again.
slammed into the juke box over and over till he died.
brutality. from ver's profile "When you play, you have to start off with a mind to turn the game into a rape" - iloveoov
only to take a few steps and collapse, with a burning sensation in his lungs
confused, burning sensation could mean poison from his drinks?
and poison-> monoxide?, there was a reference towards monoxide in the day 1 post as well.
stop and snicker before continuing on
"It brings tears of joy to my eyes to see the tears of angst in theirs."
JeeJee's profile
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Also for Bockit Day 1
Quote: I'm on a boat Profile: Oh sorry I forgot you can't read binary. - Sonuvbob You're going to cut off this thing first with just a knife, using only ice as a painkiller, hoping you don't fuck up and in case you do, you're going to put salt or pepper on it? This will end well. - Ramsing Source Have a moderate day. - Chill Thank you so much Klockan, this thread had me all depressed SC2 is like christmas when you're 5, to me. This thread was the equivalent of someone saying "let's skip christmas this year". - FrozenArbiter In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move. - Douglas Adams I am the master of vegetable timing rush. - Silver http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=54575no edits. How varied really was protoss projectiles in BWs? They had goons and cannons that shot the same blue balls and reavers that shot bigger, fatter, longer ranged, buggy blue balls. – IntoTheWannaBe America turtled on island and tech to nukes. Also, some drop harass. - Jyvblamo, On WWII
the link in his profile
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=54575
"i went to the media store..."
media= TV, from day 1?
Thanks to this thread, made it a lot easier.
http://www.teamliquid.net/blogs/viewblog.php?topic_id=91847
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Hm, two families could make things a bit weird with the CK. Though I guess it doesn't really matter to the town who the CK is working for, he's either with the town or not with the town. Also 2 hits per family seems a bit low to me, I'd wager 3 hits for a total of 6. The problem though is that we do not know if we are missing hits, because mafia may have stacked, or people have not spoken up yet.
It's entirely possible, although unlikely, that the DTs were only in contact with mafia members. And if they were in contact with a townie, maybe he/she doesn't want to speak up for some reason? The only reason they would speak up is if they knew who else the DT was talking to, otherwise you just put a target on yourself and no information of use is gained...
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Rol wrote:
We need to figure out how many hits each mafia has so we can try to figure out what the kill formula is. I think 2 hits per mafia is way too weak. I also think 3 hits each mafia is weak, but just means that the mafia need to focus and make sure they kill the town and not each other. Which would make it hard. I can see 2 successful protects being possible, but 4 seems very unlikely.
We simply cant do that, we can estimate at best, i think each mafia has 3 kp as starting, 4 each seems too much and 2 too little.
Once we have that figured out, does anyone know who the two DTs were in contact with? The only way for no one to have any idea is if the two DTs role checked the godfather who claimed vet or something and just told him what they were figuring it was statistically in their favor for him to NOT be godfaher.
No way to know who they were in contact with. Im guessing here but this only seems to point to someone with a high profile or high influence in mafia games, if they pmd theyr role this was a missplay, if not we are playing with some lucky-super analitic mafia. However its quite unlikely because of the profile both players had in the game, pyrri was quite active and working but fusion was completely inactive, didnt even vote iirc. They couldnt had rolechecked anyone before night 2 so this is quite unlikely a godfather rolechecked.
That seems very unlikely, unless hes a known power player from previous mafia games and has been active in the thread. Off the top of my head SoG and Caller come to mind from my post skimming, but those thoughts are just me thinking out loud and clearing some suggestions for what could cause the death of what seems like two DTs.
Unfortunaltely i cant find a convincing clue against any high profile yet. It can be anyone that had the trust from both, ace, ver, sog, versatile, or even qatol, add as many as you want here. The problem is that we cant start pointing towards them, they are all equally inactive and no clues yet. "What seems to be DTs?" are you suggesting they werent? if something i think role reveal after death is the only thing the town has for sure.
To summarize:
Before our lynch we need to figure out
1. Who got hit last night. imposible to tell, might have been blocked hits or double hits from mafia.
2. figure out max mafia kills/formula imposible at best estimate 3 kp and 6 mafia each side.
3. Figure out who those DTs(?) blues were talking to. imposible unless you pm them.
The only thing we can do again is clue analisis, medics should be doing his stuff, vigis should be preparing a hit or looking for targets, vets dunno. Where are you Qatol? Btw im gonna go with tricode this lynch i made a clue analisis that points towards him (see few pages back). I ask the town to read it and see if this works, i dont feel that happy about it but its the best i can see for now. Sorry tricode nothing personal here.
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to people trying to clue analyze:
BE CAREFUL
last game, we didn't get a single mafia from clue analysis the ENTIRE GAME
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Wow, I am dumb. For some reason I thought BC decided to not role reveal to keep the mafia in the dark. Sorry >.< adapting to the rules. and yeah, I just noticed the logic flaw. I didn't notice that DTs couldn't role check before night 2 ;p
But yeah, for the mafia thing, I meant ballpark how many kills the mafia gets on average. and I think 8 kills would be imba if they were one family, however if you remember in Ace's Mafia World game, there was 20 mafia and each night mafia got 20 hits. it was ridiculous. But they kept killing each other lol, its not that imba because they can kill each other accidentally as well.
Also I am sure the mafia realized "Oh theres another family" when they reread the rules or were wondering why the hell their team was only comprised of 5-6 people. There is also a chance BC could of just told them that their was not just one mafia family. Now I am back to being curious to how the mafia killed two DTs and no one has anything to say about it. The only thing that makes some sense is maybe a skilled mafia convinced one of them if not both that he was innocent then killed them. The next possibility would be knowing one and luck hitting the other, barely anything is ever pure luck in this game.
ugg :/ this game is not going so well, I feel like pyrr might of been a mouth for someone who was a mafia trying to avoid publicity. He was talking a lot and saying a lot. To me his posting seemed to show like he was speaking with and on behalf of other people like an attempt to form a town circle. However they were mafia :/
ohdaspeculationzzzz
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EBWOB: (or whatever SoG's acronym was) I am okay with voting for tricode if no one else shows up. But I say we wait a little to see if anyone can say that our DTs were talking to any potential mafioso
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United States7488 Posts
I got a couple PM's from Pyrrhuloxia during Day One, but nothing that made me think he was a detective or that he was talking to or had revealed anything to others. Not much content in the PM's. He seemed suspicious of 3clipse and had me check his post edit in the voting thread, but it wasn't anything significant.
Based off of his activity he was likely contacting others, but he didn't give me any hints as to who they could be. People who were talking to any of the now dead players should come forward and say what they were talking about with them. This will help as we will know what these players were thinking but afraid to post in the thread. Now that we know they are innocent we can look at their opinions in that light.
In the same respect anyone who was talking with Bockit should also come forward and let us know what his opinions in private were, because knowing he is mafia changes the way we see those opinions and hiding that information would be bad for the town.
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Actually, yeah you did find mafia from clues (or they helped alot), scooter being one (for the biker clue). I think there were a couple more that linked up with mafia members.
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just woke up, Im very busy but to let you guys know I took a hit last night
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Look, we need to be a bit more active now then ever. (my life is on the line ;p)
The clue analysis given for me is not that great, but even if I think so, it probably doesn't matter.
Right now I think a finger is being pointed at me to early with an insufficient analysis. Also since there are other people who have things media related in their profile, I am curious why you pick me? Is it just because me 'wanting to be in the entertainment industry' (but not an actor) so broad that it is just easier for you to just pick me?
We should focus more on finding some more solid evidence (even if it is against me). We need to stay active and try to get people talking, the more someone talks, the probable more chance they might screw up and give us a clue about them being mafia.
Also let's look at the clues more deeply. We need to get a better feel for mafia.
I noticed something, though i don't know them very well and what their behaviors are normally like, but Qatol's med list.
None of those vets seem to be to active right now. Also I know it is exam season, but i forget if they said when and how long their exams are. We should be careful cause some mafia members might actually try to hide behind Exam Time.
So we should kinda try to know how active they are and try to remember when they said their exams should end.
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Hey, i know people who get hit are suppose to call out still, but other then making sure mafia doesn't know if the person they hit is vet or not. But what do we do if mafia tries to call out and claim they were hit?
That doesn't mean we can still trust those who get hit. Even if it is a fake call, what if a med did protect a mafia member and they call hit.
Is there anything we could do about that? Either case, if someone calls hit we definitely can't fully trust them, keep on your guard still even if they call hit in the future. It is hard to tell if they are lying or not cause we can't have our blues teaming up with them, just in case they are mafia (because there are two groups of them from we can figure out)
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On April 26 2009 08:52 semioldguy wrote:
I got a couple PM's from Pyrrhuloxia during Day One, but nothing that made me think he was a detective or that he was talking to or had revealed anything to others. Not much content in the PM's. He seemed suspicious of 3clipse and had me check his post edit in the voting thread, but it wasn't anything significant.
Based off of his activity he was likely contacting others, but he didn't give me any hints as to who they could be. People who were talking to any of the now dead players should come forward and say what they were talking about with them. This will help as we will know what these players were thinking but afraid to post in the thread. Now that we know they are innocent we can look at their opinions in that light.
In the same respect anyone who was talking with Bockit should also come forward and let us know what his opinions in private were, because knowing he is mafia changes the way we see those opinions and hiding that information would be bad for the town.
I will admit I was talking to both Bockit and pyrrhuluxia. my conversation with Bockit was short, but do you REALLY want me to post my conversations with pyrr - I have 21 PMs from him..... (my inbox looked like the thread for a while - he calls it "verbal diarrhea)?
Pyrr accused:
showtime! malongo dreamflower 0cz3c 3 lions Quickstriker coolcrimefighter malongo again inertinept 0cz3c again (and yes, it is likely I'm missing a few)
Bockit:
+ Show Spoiler +
Haha yeah, day 1 clues are the worst things haha. I still laugh at the pika chu thing from last game.
And I agree, I'm definitely lower profile than those players.
I've got to go to my after-graduation drinks thing for my uni class (I still have to wait another year ) So I have to bail, but yeah, we need to keep the town active so we can try to trip up some mafia.
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Original Message:
Yeah also shortly after I sent that JeeJee started posting. He definitely isn't worth lynching. But he should be watched. Right now, I think coolcrimefighter is our best bet.
Only major thing I think is important right now in the thread is my medic post. (Do you agree with it? I'm afraid of making it much longer because that would just create a target list like last game.)
Can't do anything about inertinept. At least we TRIED to make a decent decision.
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Original Message:
Suspicious? Yes. Worth lynching him over? In my experience with mafia so far, no. Same as Rage.
I just woke up and am responding to pms before I read the thread, so I don't know if anything has been worked on but the town really needs to stay active. Any plans we develop aren't going to happen until people are able to judge others as blue/green/red so until the day clues we should promote activity in the thread.
Sucks about inertinept btw I wish people would play more intelligently.
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Original Message:
What do you think about JeeJee? Like Rage he isn't posting in the mafia thread. However, they are both posting in the Dota thread.......
+ Show Spoiler +
I don't know if I'd call it insight into the situation, it just really comes across as the usual 'newish member' trying to fit in with one of the 'cool' mods that seems to happen all the time here
Hmm, a stronger target? I'm not sure I won't lie I haven't got any huge suspects yet
I could be wrong about quickstriker, my gut says he's not mafia but if you were to pick him I can't imagine anyone complaining (lack of anyone else to pick at this stage really).
Rage is another suspicion of mine. He's been in the staff IRC channel since the thread has come up and I've been aware of it. Normally it's a pretty daunting task to read the first day or so of the thread (I know last game I put this off for half a day, made it worse but w/e) but this thread is only 13~ pages or so, with 5-6 pages of signup stuff that you can pretty much ignore.
But that doesn't mean he's mafia and Rage tends not to post so much iirc from other games, he could be a hiding blue and it would suck to hit a blue.
Looking back that's not really much help for picking a target , I'll keep in touch though with any thoughts.
Thanks for the confidence vote It is reciprocated.
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Original Message:
Look, I think you are a pretty good player and you seem to have some insight into the situation that I don't have. Quickstriker's defense seems a lot like Tricode's from last game to me.
That being said, I would like to hear who you think is a stronger target for my lynch.
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Im gonna vote to lynch versatile because of my own clue analysis unless some more solid evidence about someone comes up. Also, as others have said, those who took a hit must post here but do not post how you were saved. like this:
On April 26 2009 09:05 Ace wrote:
just woke up, Im very busy but to let you guys know I took a hit last night
so we know Ace took a hit but we arent sure if he is mafia or not still. I didnt see the multiple mafia families coming. T_T
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On April 26 2009 09:56 Qatol wrote:Bockit: + Show Spoiler +
-------------------------------------------Bockit
Haha yeah, day 1 clues are the worst things haha. I still laugh at the pika chu thing from last game.
And I agree, I'm definitely lower profile than those players.
I've got to go to my after-graduation drinks thing for my uni class (I still have to wait another year ) So I have to bail, but yeah, we need to keep the town active so we can try to trip up some mafia.
-----------------------------------------Qatol
Original Message:
Yeah also shortly after I sent that JeeJee started posting. He definitely isn't worth lynching. But he should be watched. Right now, I think coolcrimefighter is our best bet.
Only major thing I think is important right now in the thread is my medic post. (Do you agree with it? I'm afraid of making it much longer because that would just create a target list like last game.)
Can't do anything about inertinept. At least we TRIED to make a decent decision.
-----------------------------------------Bockit
Original Message:
Suspicious? Yes. Worth lynching him over? In my experience with mafia so far, no. Same as Rage.
I just woke up and am responding to pms before I read the thread, so I don't know if anything has been worked on but the town really needs to stay active. Any plans we develop aren't going to happen until people are able to judge others as blue/green/red so until the day clues we should promote activity in the thread.
Sucks about inertinept btw I wish people would play more intelligently.
-----------------------------------------Qatol
Original Message:
What do you think about JeeJee? Like Rage he isn't posting in the mafia thread. However, they are both posting in the Dota thread.......
----------------------------------------------------------Bockit
I don't know if I'd call it insight into the situation, it just really comes across as the usual 'newish member' trying to fit in with one of the 'cool' mods that seems to happen all the time here
Hmm, a stronger target? I'm not sure I won't lie I haven't got any huge suspects yet
I could be wrong about quickstriker, my gut says he's not mafia but if you were to pick him I can't imagine anyone complaining (lack of anyone else to pick at this stage really).
Rage is another suspicion of mine. He's been in the staff IRC channel since the thread has come up and I've been aware of it. Normally it's a pretty daunting task to read the first day or so of the thread (I know last game I put this off for half a day, made it worse but w/e) but this thread is only 13~ pages or so, with 5-6 pages of signup stuff that you can pretty much ignore.
But that doesn't mean he's mafia and Rage tends not to post so much iirc from other games, he could be a hiding blue and it would suck to hit a blue.
Looking back that's not really much help for picking a target , I'll keep in touch though with any thoughts.
Thanks for the confidence vote It is reciprocated.
----------------------------------------- Qatol
Original Message:
Look, I think you are a pretty good player and you seem to have some insight into the situation that I don't have. Quickstriker's defense seems a lot like Tricode's from last game to me.
That being said, I would like to hear who you think is a stronger target for my lynch.
There is confusion about who said what. I have labeled the speaker
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On April 26 2009 10:04 Qatol wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2009 09:56 Qatol wrote:Bockit: + Show Spoiler +
-------------------------------------------Bockit
Haha yeah, day 1 clues are the worst things haha. I still laugh at the pika chu thing from last game.
And I agree, I'm definitely lower profile than those players.
I've got to go to my after-graduation drinks thing for my uni class (I still have to wait another year ) So I have to bail, but yeah, we need to keep the town active so we can try to trip up some mafia.
-----------------------------------------Qatol
Original Message:
Yeah also shortly after I sent that JeeJee started posting. He definitely isn't worth lynching. But he should be watched. Right now, I think coolcrimefighter is our best bet.
Only major thing I think is important right now in the thread is my medic post. (Do you agree with it? I'm afraid of making it much longer because that would just create a target list like last game.)
Can't do anything about inertinept. At least we TRIED to make a decent decision.
-----------------------------------------Bockit
Original Message:
Suspicious? Yes. Worth lynching him over? In my experience with mafia so far, no. Same as Rage.
I just woke up and am responding to pms before I read the thread, so I don't know if anything has been worked on but the town really needs to stay active. Any plans we develop aren't going to happen until people are able to judge others as blue/green/red so until the day clues we should promote activity in the thread.
Sucks about inertinept btw I wish people would play more intelligently.
-----------------------------------------Qatol
Original Message:
What do you think about JeeJee? Like Rage he isn't posting in the mafia thread. However, they are both posting in the Dota thread.......
----------------------------------------------------------Bockit
I don't know if I'd call it insight into the situation, it just really comes across as the usual 'newish member' trying to fit in with one of the 'cool' mods that seems to happen all the time here
Hmm, a stronger target? I'm not sure I won't lie I haven't got any huge suspects yet
I could be wrong about quickstriker, my gut says he's not mafia but if you were to pick him I can't imagine anyone complaining (lack of anyone else to pick at this stage really).
Rage is another suspicion of mine. He's been in the staff IRC channel since the thread has come up and I've been aware of it. Normally it's a pretty daunting task to read the first day or so of the thread (I know last game I put this off for half a day, made it worse but w/e) but this thread is only 13~ pages or so, with 5-6 pages of signup stuff that you can pretty much ignore.
But that doesn't mean he's mafia and Rage tends not to post so much iirc from other games, he could be a hiding blue and it would suck to hit a blue.
Looking back that's not really much help for picking a target , I'll keep in touch though with any thoughts.
Thanks for the confidence vote It is reciprocated.
----------------------------------------- Qatol
Original Message:
Look, I think you are a pretty good player and you seem to have some insight into the situation that I don't have. Quickstriker's defense seems a lot like Tricode's from last game to me.
That being said, I would like to hear who you think is a stronger target for my lynch.
There is confusion about who said what. I have labeled the speaker
You make me feel special knowing I was mentioned in yours and Bockit's pm =D Also the fact you remember how i was last game
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Seems like Bockit was protecting Quickstriker with some sort of reverse psychology when he said "I could be wrong about quickstriker, my gut says he's not mafia but if you were to pick him I can't imagine anyone complaining (lack of anyone else to pick at this stage really)."
Thats too shallow though.
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Wow. I have to say, the events of Day 2 are pretty much the personification of my quote. We were all hoping and looking forward to the Day post so much, yet it ended up with two detectives dead and the nasty (though not entirely disheartening) surprise that there seems to be not one, but two, Mafia families involved. I agree, there doesn't seem to be any other way that a Mafia member could have died before Night 2.
My tentative clue analysis: I like the connection between Versatile and Pyrrhuloxia's killer. Her quote is "I am so hip, even my errors are correct," and the Mafia member's tripping and stumbling are a lot like errors that turn out to be correct when he manages to dodge Pyrrh's bullets and stab him to death.
I might also suggest LucasWoJ as Bockit's killer, just because of the amount of music at the end of his profile. This is despite the fact that he apparently wrote everything in his profile specifically to mess with Mafia games by making himself an obvious suspect. But considering all that was written about Bockit's death was that he went over to the jukebox, picked a song, switched it to another and then was brutally smashed, that's the best I could come up with.
So far, I haven't come up with anything for nemY's or Fusionsdf's killers. It seems like more poring over profiles and trying to figure out how BC's mind works (which I've definitely failed to do so far) is still needed.
Oh! Speaking of profiles, should I put my list of player profiles in my quote or something? Am I even allowed to change that mid-game? I'd just feel silly if I had to bump it every time I update it with role information.
Edit: Fixed the last sentence.
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I had your list of profiles bookmarked yo. It is very useful. Also something to note. In the mayor's election, Bockit and SoG voted for Ace (who got a hit) and SoG said there were PM exchange by him and pyrr on day 1. Not saying or accusing SoG and Ace but maybe this helps in our investigation.
And @ dude above my post: You aren't allowed to edit your posts. :p
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I am trying to be VERY generous with the term "inactive" but have made another list. For god's sake people. Don't join this game if you can't say anything.
Here is the list of inactives:
13. Mandalor
19. Hyperbola
25. Camlito
26. Mynock
28. Versatile
29. 3 Lions
32. truthbringer
36. Rage
37. Motbob
39. Blue_Arrow
43. Amber[light]
44. Zapling
45. Aznvaliance
46. Laxercannon
50. scamp
51. goodwill
52. CompX
53. coolcrimefighter
54. YDG
55. Mista
People on the list who voted:
29. 3 Lions
32. truthbringer
46. Laxercannon
50. scamp
51. goodwill
53. coolcrimefighter
54. YDG
List of people with 1 one-liner post, but posted SOMETHING:
13. Mandalor - "just posting to say I'm not inactive. I'll try to catch up later."
19. Hyperbola - "Hello my fellow townies. Just letting y'all know that I am active I've just been rather busy lately."
36. Rage - Tells me I am quick to make inactivity conclusions and theorizes about how the DTs got hit (2 posts total, both with very little content)
43. Amber[light] - explained that his finals start in a little over a week
44. Zapling - "vote me for mayor wooo ill be a good one" "we did last game -.-" (referring to a mayoral lynch of a mafioso)
50. scamp - Posted about his reasoning for voting, said he is too intimidated to post
51. goodwill - "cool, let's lynch quickstirker next" "I think our next lynch candidate should be one of the individuals in the detectives' circles, the chance of one family being able to hit 2 detectives together is one out of 3025."
53. coolcrimefighter - "well I've recently gotten addicted to altitude so thats why I've been inactive to make myself unshady here are some infoz about me
I am a D protoss
my name is coolcrimefighter
I am not shady" "indeed" "I think you guys are reading into my name too much"
55. Mista - “Still taking my own sweet time ..”
List of people I consider to be exceptions due to school:
7.Fishball - “I would not have access to TL from Thursday to Sunday (Back on Sunday).”
10. Ver - "Due to an intense finals period I won't be on until a brief bit friday, and then I will probably go do research and will be tied up until mon/tues."
24. Mikeymoo - "mikeymoo and I are going to be inactive for about 24 hours due to an upcoming final. Sorry" (monoxide posted this)
27. Mynock - "It's a bit difficult for me to keep up with it all ATM due to exam papers and lots of translation work to do (some other people mentioned, it's exams season for some of us now :o)"
47. Monoxide - “mikeymoo and I are going to be inactive for about 24 hours due to an upcoming final. Sorry”
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As for suspects: again, we have very little to go on. People I would encourage taking a look at:
Monoxide - he has said he has exams. Shouldn't they be over by now? He has also been linked to decently strong clues in each of the first 2 posts.
Versatile - She hasn't posted AT ALL. Since she is Ace's friend, I would assume that she is about his age and is done with school? Not sure on that. Regardless, being this quiet is totally out of character for her.
3 lions - he voted in the day 2 lynch thread but has still made 0 posts in the mafia thread. Obviously he is reading the thread at least a little because he is voting for a decently common suspect.
FakeSteve[TPR] - He was posting decently actively until he lost the election. He has gone completely quiet since then.
My personal pick right now? Versatile. In both games she has played, she has not been red (veteran in AMW, miller hit by mafia last game). Her style has completely changed for this game.
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EPT
