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Poland8075 Posts
On April 26 2009 02:11 Tricode wrote:
Can someone explain to me why they think there are 2 mafia? I don't understand it.
For Bockit, he could be miller or CK. Mafia could of just hit him right?
There have to be two mafia.
Consider: Bockit has to be mafia, he is red, we've already established this. Millers are Black and CK would have "CK" written next ot his name. Therefore, Bockit is mafia.
Now, if Bockit is mafia, and nobody else can kill him that is town, then that must mean mafia killed him. But if there is one mafia, they can't hit each other. Therefore, there must be at least two mafia organizations, of whom Bockit was a member of one. Their KP is likely fairly low-i'd assume 2-4 per mafia-but they are at odds with each other.
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On April 26 2009 02:19 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On April 26 2009 02:11 Tricode wrote:
Can someone explain to me why they think there are 2 mafia? I don't understand it.
For Bockit, he could be miller or CK. Mafia could of just hit him right?
There have to be two mafia. Consider: Bockit has to be mafia, he is red, we've already established this. Millers are Black and CK would have "CK" written next ot his name. Therefore, Bockit is mafia. Now, if Bockit is mafia, and nobody else can kill him that is town, then that must mean mafia killed him. But if there is one mafia, they can't hit each other. Therefore, there must be at least two mafia organizations, of whom Bockit was a member of one. Their KP is likely fairly low-i'd assume 2-4 per mafia-but they are at odds with each other.
Ah thank you. I thought miller and Ck would just be red also.
Does that mean the two mafias will be trying to find each other now to try to team up?
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Canada7170 Posts
On April 26 2009 02:14 Qatol wrote:
Medics: Do NOT PM anyone if you made a save. That person is no longer confirmed as innocent.
Quoting in case this is missed.
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So does that mean those who are hit shouldn't call out either?
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On April 26 2009 02:33 Tricode wrote:
So does that mean those who are hit shouldn't call out either?
No you should still call out. The only difference is that the people who were hit cannot be assumed innocent
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Sneaky BC:
Chuiu's post for mafia:
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
BC's post for mafia:
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia in your family. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
We definitely have multiple mafia families. This also means we also have multiple DTs. I doubt that the multiple families were in contact with one another and sharing DT information because they probably didn't know there were multiple mafia. Even if they did, sharing DT info with other people is just asking to be suspected the next day. Regardless of whether or not the person you're sharing with is in the other mafia or not. Especially since now the mafia for sure know what's going on. Maybe the mafia knew what was going on because they had less numbers. Who knows. Bockit's death was most likely in hopes of killing a blue. If you were attacked please post that in the thread but NOT why you were saved.
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Edit*
When I said "This also means we also have multiple DTs." I meant multiple GFs. Sorry.
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On April 26 2009 03:27 Incognito wrote:Sneaky BC: Chuiu's post for mafia: Show nested quote +
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
BC's post for mafia: Show nested quote +
Mafia - Your goal is to eliminate everyone else in the town. Your ability, as a group, is killing off whomever you decide on at night and knowing the role of each other player in the mafia. You may not kill other mafia in your family. Mafia killing power is decided after signups are closed and will be shown next to the mafia count in the player count lists.
We definitely have multiple mafia families. This also means we also have multiple DTs. I doubt that the multiple families were in contact with one another and sharing DT information because they probably didn't know there were multiple mafia. Even if they did, sharing DT info with other people is just asking to be suspected the next day. Regardless of whether or not the person you're sharing with is in the other mafia or not. Especially since now the mafia for sure know what's going on. Maybe the mafia knew what was going on because they had less numbers. Who knows. Bockit's death was most likely in hopes of killing a blue. If you were attacked please post that in the thread but NOT why you were saved.
ah, nice edit bc  . multiple mafia families eh.. that's interesting
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I am dead already? 
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nuu nemy
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It may be a little early to tell, but I would suggest that maybe the split between the first and second paragraphs means that the first is for one family and the second is for the second. If the next day post comes up the same way (two paragraphs separated by a line break) then I'd think its safe to assume that.
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On April 26 2009 04:10 Incognito wrote:
It may be a little early to tell, but I would suggest that maybe the split between the first and second paragraphs means that the first is for one family and the second is for the second. If the next day post comes up the same way (two paragraphs separated by a line break) then I'd think its safe to assume that.
Very good point. Look how clues match very well to the first day (BC and Scaramanga deaths). Look too that our two DTs got hit from the same side, id say its safe to assume a pm leak over there. Also look that one family went for two semi inactives (bockit-nemy). I really think fusion and phyrri got a bad choice of trust.
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Unless there ARE two godfathers, this is a huge advantage for us. It used to be that only the town could take friendly fire, but now the mafia will have to be working as hard, if not harder, to identify possible hits. This opens up new strats we can use to screw with THEM and try to plant seeds that certian players are mafia of another family. It's no longer taken for granted that they have perfect communication within their order; if they don't organize, they'll be killing each other off left and right faster than the town ever could. This opens up possibilities for both infiltration and misinformation.
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I think our next lynch candidate should be one of the individuals in the detectives' circles, the chance of one family being able to hit 2 detectives together is one out of 3025.
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EDIT:or 3136, you get the idea.
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Do we have any leads on the pm leak?
someone must have some idea of who the dt's were trusting
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btw all, I am reading now :D I don't know what speed the games moving at but I am on page 8 I think. Should be caught up soon, sucks though. Its such a nice day out.
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On April 26 2009 04:47 GoodWill wrote:
I think our next lynch candidate should be one of the individuals in the detectives' circles, the chance of one family being able to hit 2 detectives together is one out of 3025.
assuming they pick their targets at random which nobody ever does so the statistic is pointless
but yes we have some idea
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wow shit, two mafia families. I skim read a lot of the thread, with the exception of the last two pages. So now we have two mafia families, nice BC :D pulled that over on us, and we are pretty sure we lost two DTs which kind of blows.
What we need to do now is ALL the people who were hit last night need to come forward DO NOT REVEAL IF YOU ARE A VET OR MEDIC PROTECTED
We need to figure out how many hits each mafia has so we can try to figure out what the kill formula is. I think 2 hits per mafia is way too weak. I also think 3 hits each mafia is weak, but just means that the mafia need to focus and make sure they kill the town and not each other. Which would make it hard. I can see 2 successful protects being possible, but 4 seems very unlikely.
Once we have that figured out, does anyone know who the two DTs were in contact with? The only way for no one to have any idea is if the two DTs role checked the godfather who claimed vet or something and just told him what they were figuring it was statistically in their favor for him to NOT be godfaher.
That seems very unlikely, unless hes a known power player from previous mafia games and has been active in the thread. Off the top of my head SoG and Caller come to mind from my post skimming, but those thoughts are just me thinking out loud and clearing some suggestions for what could cause the death of what seems like two DTs.
To summarize:
Before our lynch we need to figure out
1. Who got hit last night.
2. figure out max mafia kills/formula
3. Figure out who those DTs(?) blues were talking to.
If we can't figure out who they were talking to, we have to assume its a likely person to role check, and then be careful of any of the power players who have been active thus far.
Happy LucaS?
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2 kp per family actually could be reasonable depending on how many people there are in each mafia
If there's say 10 per family (unlikely) then 2 would seem very reasonable
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EPT
