EPTMafia VII - GG - Page 17
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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BloodyC0bbler
Canada7875 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:42 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: So only 36/57 people even voted... we need something to get people going mod kill threats or something i dunno. Do remember this week is finals pyrr, Until monday im assuming activity will be lower, that being said, threats after that are valid. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Do remember this week is finals pyrr, Until monday im assuming activity will be lower, that being said, threats after that are valid. yeah I know, although my finals week is in two weeks. i assume some people will have finals next week. that's why I said "mod kill threats" instead of "mod kills" lol. I dunno we're both bored I wanted something to talk about you know... I'm just worried how easy it is for mafia to hide. We got so many people last time through their conspicuous inactivity and town was much more active so active people were safer. At this point if I and a few more active people die tonight the post rate will probably go to less than half what it is now and no one will be able to be active without getting mowed down because we don't have the strength in numbers that we need. Right now mafia can be silent without drawing any attention because 21 people are super inactive and there's no way there are even 11 mafia. | ||
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
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Tricode
United States538 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: yeah I know, although my finals week is in two weeks. i assume some people will have finals next week. that's why I said "mod kill threats" instead of "mod kills" lol. I dunno we're both bored I wanted something to talk about you know... I'm just worried how easy it is for mafia to hide. We got so many people last time through their conspicuous inactivity and town was much more active so active people were safer. At this point if I and a few more active people die tonight the post rate will probably go to less than half what it is now and no one will be able to be active without getting mowed down because we don't have the strength in numbers that we need. Right now mafia can be silent without drawing any attention because 21 people are super inactive and there's no way there are even 11 mafia. There is a slight chance I might be wrong, but last game only 3 people were actually active for the mafia. The others didn't keep in touch with us and when all those 3 were lynched, that's when the game kinda ended. Two were kinda there with those three but those two kinda kept disappearing. Even though inactivity might help mafia, i just don't know by how much at this point since it is still the first night. Maybe in the future when we have more clues and we are inactive, then that will more likely hurt us. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 23 2009 23:50 GoodWill wrote: cool, let's lynch quickstirker next This post was edited. Before the edit it said "cool" and nothing else. This was the post after the lynch for the day was revealed and showed as townie (five minutes after BC's post). The original post was left there for about twenty minutes before he came to edit the extra bit in. No one posted during that time. I think this would be a too-obviously dumb post for Mafia to make. But I want to set an example here. People are NOT supposed to be editing their posts! There are too many post edits I am seeing. It is against the rules. I can see what you wrote. You aren't going to be able to hide anything by editing. Most of you are just adding things to your post. Don't do it. Just make a new post. It's fine. No one is going to be criticized for multiposting here or making a typo. Just mention it in your next post if you meant to fix something. An acronym I'd recommend for this game is EBWOP. It stands for "Edit by way of post" and you can use it to say that it is what you would edit into your previous post if you could. For example: EBWOP: I meant to say that you do not* look like mafia, not that you do | ||
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semioldguy
United States7488 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:49 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: I'm just worried how easy it is for mafia to hide. We got so many people last time through their conspicuous inactivity and town was much more active so active people were safer. At this point if I and a few more active people die tonight the post rate will probably go to less than half what it is now and no one will be able to be active without getting mowed down because we don't have the strength in numbers that we need. Right now mafia can be silent without drawing any attention because 21 people are super inactive and there's no way there are even 11 mafia. Being inactive hurts whichever side you are on. If you are town and inactive, it hurts the town. If you are mafia and inactive, it hurts the mafia. Lurking or inactivity is almost always a bad strategy and hurtful to your own side. I would like to encourage everyone to be active when you can be. You make this commitment when you sign up for the game, please do you best to hold yourself to it. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
On April 24 2009 16:19 semioldguy wrote: Being inactive hurts whichever side you are on. If you are town and inactive, it hurts the town. If you are mafia and inactive, it hurts the mafia. Lurking or inactivity is almost always a bad strategy and hurtful to your own side. I would like to encourage everyone to be active when you can be. You make this commitment when you sign up for the game, please do you best to hold yourself to it. I don't think Lurking is necessarily a bad mafia strat as long as it is uncharacteristic and you are active behind the scenes. at least some mafia have to be active publicly though. Kind of depends on clue difficulty as well, after all the function of clues in the game is to give the town something to look at since we aren't all in the same room where we can see facial expressions and directly address people. Basically what I mean to say is that if the same proportion of mafia and townies are inactive i think mafia is better off, if only because mafia get all their powers. | ||
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
Ok so onto the project of killing Mafia--we need to figure out a systematic way of tracking the town. I'm going to PM some members about this. I don't want to share this method publicly, because I think that mafia would then figure out how to game the system. However, since some information it uses will have already happened and we can see post edits, I will say that these two probably will be parts of the analysis method. Also, we need to track clue patterns. We know that BC will not use the same mafioso to kill somebody in consecutive days. So we can use alternate day clues and split them. With clue patterns and knowledge of any suspicious townies, we will have a list. One suspicious strategy Blues should be worried about is the GF roleplaying detective and then roleclaiming to townies. It would be nearly impossible to thwart this strategy if he did it. However one way to thwart it would be to have everyone roleclaim to Qatol, then having Qatol serve as a hub for all information, sharing his information in pieces only with confirmed Blues (confirmed via detective). On mafia activity: If, of the actives here, at least one, maybe two or three are mafia, mafia can do one of two things: 1) They lynch a lot of the actives here. 2) They lynch inactives. 1) Kind of tilts toward mafia inactivity. To make sure this strategy has proper payoff, we need to create an active list and threaten lynch of people on the list if several are mafiakilled. E.g. list of 10 actives, then if more than 5 are killed, remaining 5 should be lynched. That would force mafia to target inactives, or if they continued targeting actives after the town makes that threat, then that is sure sign that mafia lurk in actives. 2) Tilts toward either inactivity or activity. There are enough inactives such that mafia may hide for a long time among inactives even if we lynch inactives. Also another idea: whenever we send PMs to one another concerning mafia, we both send a copy of the PM to Qatol. This will allow him to gradually build up a network of confirmed blues/townies with which to begin analysis. We can no longer rely on mafia remaining inactive. It's way too easy for the godfather or even regular mafia to be active and muss things up, so we should try to use a bunch of truth-telling mechanisms to ensure core discussion safety. | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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t_co
United States702 Posts
We should come up with a list of players which match clues from Day 1, 3, 5, etc and from Day 2, 4, 6 etc (since mafioso alternate days) BC can you put this link on the front page? | ||
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t_co
United States702 Posts
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Pyrrhuloxia
United States6700 Posts
"I'm going to PM some members about this." If you trust me at all or want my help at all feel free to ask I am bored and have activity to spare   "post edits... will be part of the analysis method" Eh I edited a lot last game and was innocent. Not sure what you are thinking here. Maybe mafia tend to avoid edits because they don't want to look suspicious? Or maybe the players in their first game who were mafia might have edited more not knowing that semioldguy and others (RaGe maybe?) could see those edits? "We know that BC will not use the same mafioso to kill somebody in consecutive days." Last game, mafia started off killing 6 people per day and only had 10 or 11 members so Chuiu had to use the same mafioso two days in a row. Also last game, day 1 post only killed 2 people but had clues for way more than that. Furthermore, last game the mafias that killed each day were chosen randomly. You say "we know" so maybe I missed something if so please help me out on where BC said that. "One suspicious strategy Blues should be worried about is the GF roleplaying detective and then roleclaiming to townies." I am also worried about this, great to bring it up. I dunno about it being "nearly impossible" to defeat, though. GF has to sacrifice mafia to gain trust and as soon as one of their clue checks turns bad we ruin them. "However one way to thwart it would be to have everyone roleclaim to Qatol, then having Qatol serve as a hub for all information, sharing his information in pieces only with confirmed Blues (confirmed via detective)." Lol yeah, cept we can't trust Qatol enough to do that. "1) Kind of tilts toward mafia inactivity. To make sure this strategy has proper payoff, we need to create an active list and threaten lynch of people on the list if several are mafiakilled. E.g. list of 10 actives, then if more than 5 are killed, remaining 5 should be lynched. That would force mafia to target inactives, or if they continued targeting actives after the town makes that threat, then that is sure sign that mafia lurk in actives." lol wut. trying to find a single reason to do that made my head hurt terribly so I think it will suffice to say that any plan that relies us to think 5 lynches ahead is going to be disrupted. "Also another idea: whenever we send PMs to one another concerning mafia, we both send a copy of the PM to Qatol. This will allow him to gradually build up a network of confirmed blues/townies with which to begin analysis." Lol did I miss the part where Qatol was a confirmed blue or something? | ||
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Amber[LighT]
United States5078 Posts
On April 24 2009 13:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Do remember this week is finals pyrr, Until monday im assuming activity will be lower, that being said, threats after that are valid. yah mine start the 4th and end the 11th, but I would assume last week until the last week in June are finals for different people  | ||
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LordWeird
United States3411 Posts
I'm actually going to be reading the entire thread again, and will provide more thoughts once I've gotten a chance to rest my brain. I would like to say that I feel as though real clue analysis is pretty pointless at this stage. We indeed have gotten a lot of posts with "hey guys, ive been busy...", and If I were mafia I would probably try to camouflage my 'inactivity' that way. Perhaps that's exactly what I'm doing now? The only person I feel that deserves some extra attention is QuickStriker. He seemed to get really pissed earlier in the thread, which to me seems like a decent attempt at appearing innocent and inactive. I've also got my eye on Bockit (Has been defensive over accusations on more than one occasion, dunno why this has stuck me as odd but it has). As far as the clues go, I think the our strongest potential clues are the lunging figure bowl into him, flinging him down the stairs, leaving him broken on the floor clue as well as uncomprehensable phrase clue. Also, wtf @ a TV blowing up. If that doesn't have even a little significance then it sounds like a bad CSI episode. | ||
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LordWeird
United States3411 Posts
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Malongo
Chile3472 Posts
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Caller
Poland8075 Posts
On April 24 2009 23:09 Malongo wrote: The real problem about activity is that we cant do anything else until the day post comes in, most of the discussion comes from the clues, so if there are no clues theres not too much to add at least from my side (yeah and quickstriker still looks mafia to me). The other point is that lack of info about the numbers is way to painful for the town, because there are millers and gf. I mean theres almost no way to counter-check a player for trustability because the amount of blues/mafia is hidden. I have an idea We look for vigis to make a kill on day 2. A vigi will send a pm to three people, good players, saying that they will hit so and so tonight. Then we watch and count hits. If hits are right, that vigi can roleclaim and volunteer they were vigi. They already used their hit so if they die they won't be that important, as long as the vigi makes list. Then we can stack medics and assign night roles to see if the night roles go through with it. If hits are lower than expected, we do a cluecheck on the kill and vigi, and that can be arranged through no dts saying anything. If the clue does not point to that person, we lynch them. For added safety, we target a high suspicion person, so if someone is faking big and be like "oh mafia blocked my hit" we will get a better idea of who are suspects without using a lynch. Then we tell him to do another high suspicion target, and if it happens again the vigi should be highly suspect as mafia. | ||
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