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Preamble: I came to this conclusion shortly after the Day 2 post but waited until night to unleash it to collect more behavioral information. Since it's night I better post it now in case I die. I was going to wait until the last few hours of night to post it but I've got a lot to do in the morning and I might forget.
aZnvaLiaNce is really suspicious.
I went through all the profiles with the Day 2 clues in mind and found nothing that really caught my attention except Rice's, which redtooth explained pretty well.
But, I found something that matched up pretty damn well to something in Day 1 (a lot better than Pika Chu, lol):
From Day 1:
"Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended."
From aZnvaLiaNce's profile:
"How can there be any meaning in the memory of such a being? What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion."
On Day 1, Incognito has a memory of something about the mafia - he isn't able to find it and it may have been an illusory memory planted to lure him back to the scene of the crime.
"Whoever wins, the battle does not end. The loser is set free from the battlefield, while the winner must remain there. And the survivor will live out his life as the warrior until the day he dies."
The battlefield of Day 1 is City Hall, which is destroyed in a victory for the mafia. Incognito is a loser in that he failed to prevent this, yet he escapes to freedom from City Hall while one victorious mafia stays behind. Incognito is then lured back by a fruitless memory and killed by the warrior that stayed.
Looking back, this seems like the most clue-worthy passage; several players commented on this. Some people thought maybe it tied to lurker (which I thought might be true). I'm sure whichever mafia was tied to this passage would want to take a real low profile.
So, what has aZnvaLiaNce's activity looked like so far this game:
After the day post on page 7, aZnvaLiaNce's first post WASN'T UNTIL PAGE 42. And did he apologize for being so inactive or give some kind of excuse? No, he used his first post to try to link someone to a clue. (Contrast with Centric who's first post is on page 53). This correlates with someone who is lurking the forums without contributing because they don't have an incentive to do so. They are up to date on everything that has happened between page 7 and page 43 and therefore tend not to notice it has been a long time since they've posted.
Also of note: aZnvaLiaNce did not vote and did not post after the day post despite posting multiple times before the day post (behavior matching RebirthofLegend's). He didn't post even after candidates said they would kill inactives, just like rebirthoflegend (though the election may have ended before he may have seen this, don't forget that rebirthoflegend was shown to have done some posts on the site elsewhere while being inactive in the game).
Here's aZnvaLiaNce's first post of the game:
"Hmmm......clues in Camlito's death.....the white flower, torn ticket stubs, popcorn and it even said he picked them up as trash off the floor. This sounds like a bum or hobo....either it's too obvious as a clue or I'm on to something"
It seems pretty clear he's trying to implicate bumatlarge - why doesn't he just say it? It's like he's trying to lead the town a certain way but wants someone else to be the first to mention bumatlarge by name so the accusation doesn't get traced back to him. Why would a bum collect ticket stubs or flowers anyway? I could see food but it doesn't seem as obvious or as likely as his wording is geared to try to make it seem. This mafia is a theater worker so it makes sense that ticket stubs and popcorn would be in his pocket. It is the dried up white flower that sticks out, IMO. Why is it white? Dried? There are several profiles referencing flowers.
From Zapling's profile: "Don't believe the florist when he tells you that the roses are free"
From dreamflower's profile: http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/41975.jpg
(He pre-emptively thanked everyone for not bringing up this picture since his flower is blue, apparently missing the white flowers behind the blue one)
From Phrujbaz's post: http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/40422.jpg
Also could be a packrat or cleaning / trash / janitor reference although all I came up with for that is someone with a mice and men reference which is nowhere near packrat.
MrBabyHands gave the same bum idea a post or two later and I'm not too suspicious of him so maybe it's not that weird.
After holding out on accusing aZnvaLiaNce I watched the rest of his Day 2 activity carefully:
He goes with the bandwagon here, and then defends Rice:
"##I vote to lynch Mandalor
##I vote to use Double Lynch for tomorrow
I have this very very odd feeling that Rice will turn out blue....."
Kinda sounds like the odd feeling Mandalor had that semioldguy was mafia. Also weird that he would make these posts that make no apparent contribution - Rice is blue - no idea why! - This is pointing to a bum but no idea who that could be. I make vague statements like these when I have gut feelings or complicated feelings I can't quite explain without barreling into yet another War and Peace-length post but they don't make up all 100% of my stated thoughts.
I sent a pm to semioldguy asking to check it out and he responded:
+ Show Spoiler +Semioldguy: I can only ask if a clue is one sentence or less... so I'd imagine that anything that is a clue wouldn't be something like an extended metaphor type of clue.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message from Pyrrhuloxia:
From Day 1:
"Over at City Hall Incognito just realized something the mafia might have missed. He began sifting through the rubble thinking he could score something to help catch the mafia. What he didn't know was one stayed back to make sure he was dead. He was shoved forward while hunched over pulling some concrete away and smashed his head into a large chunk of debris. He turned himself around to face the man and knew that whatever could be found was lost. With one shot to the head Incognito's life was ended."
From aZnvaLiaNce's profile:
"How can there be any meaning in the memory of such a being? What I have shown you is reality. What you remember, that is the illusion."
"Whoever wins, the battle does not end. The loser is set free from the battlefield, while the winner must remain there. And the survivor will live out his life as the warrior until the day he dies."
What do you think about using a Day 1 clue check on that?
I responded with this and he's ignored me since (this was more than 24 hours ago). Maybe he's backlogged with IMs, though he responded quickly to the first one and has posted a bunch since my second one. Or maybe he's mafia. Most likely he thinks its a shitty idea. I definitely think there are better ideas to check now but this was the best I had when he asked for ideas right after claiming DT.
+ Show Spoiler +You could ask: does "one stayed back" point to aznvaliance? That limitation is probably to keep people from highlighting the whole day post and asking "does it point to so-and-so" to get an extra role check.
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Bloodycobbler's profile mentions some Rhaegar character. Not sure what that is about but urban dictionary defines Rhaegar as:
"Untrustworthy person who steals things from his friends.
He's a real rhaegar who steals his friends things."
Dunno that I see that popping up anywhere but thought I'd throw it out.
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Ok "America turtled on island and tech to nukes. Also, some drop harass." is from Bockit's profile. Also note that the explosive mafia taunts his foe on day 2, which could be a reference to the word "harass". "the walls came caving down" could be a reference to "drop".
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"the walls came caving down on Scaramanga" really sounds like a clue to me. Sounds like a Jericho reference (or maybe a Samson reference). Maybe someone is a fan of that tv show or something.
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On March 24 2009 04:38 redtooth wrote:
I've been out for a while but I'm glad to come back to good news. Now that mandalor's flipped red (and mafia KP is lowered) I say we should go ahead and cluecheck Rice. Rolecheck priorities should go to Ace and BC. Also, Ace is protected tonight because of Incarceration right?
To Chuiu and special role players (including mafia): Let's hurry up and get the next morning up.
To Medics: I trust that you guys will make the right decisions
To fusiondf: Are you going to actively maintain that blog? You should put it on your profile or something because its drowned among the billion other blogs in TL.
You can't role check BC.
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On March 24 2009 05:43 dreamflower wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2009 05:04 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
For tommorrows lynching.
The top two suspects at the moment if i am correct are
Rice and Humbug? Agreed, though I would feel a lot better if a DT could possibly clue-check one of these two. With a double lynch coming up, I really doubt we need to add a vigi hit into the mix, especially as our evidence seems shaky at best right now. Semioldguy, if you still haven't decided which Day One clues to check, it would be great if you could check things like the guy who pulls Chuiu to his feet only to stab him, the one who disarms him with both hands behind his head, or the third guy staying in the car. And by the way... First of all, I'm a girl.  Second, the flowers behind the blue rose in my picture are indeed white (and I'm surprised it took people that long to notice the picture at all, even with my preemptive thanking), but they are not dried either, which should make it a moot point. Just wanted to mention that. Edit: Grrr, quote tags. I should learn to use the "Preview" button before I post.
Sorry
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On March 24 2009 07:46 semioldguy wrote:
This would also be completely ridiculous for me to fabricate (I have no idea how it could successfully be pulled off). Reason being that if there are any Detectives out there thinking to themselves "Hey, I don't fit descriptions #2 or # 3" Then at minimum we have caught at least one Mafia.
Yeah #2 and #3 may not exist and this could be used to out all 3 DTs into role claiming to you if they are afraid to post in the thread. I kinda trust you at this point but if I was a DT I dunno if I would fully trust you.
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I guess it depends on whether or not we keep being successful because as soon as you go all out one saying someone is red and they turn not red or you come up with nothing useful for long stretches you would get caught. The problem I see with you being a mouthpiece for 3 DTs is that you could feed false information and always claim its one of the other thats false but then again youd have to have us hang them and turn red or you would die fast so if it is some scheme of yours it would fall apart fast I think. But if you are mafia and get all 3 DTs' identities it might be worth it. And if you wanted to try to get DTs to out themselves it would look pretty much exactly like this.
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On March 24 2009 08:10 semioldguy wrote:
Obviously the worst case scenario here is that if I am guilty, as it could potentially screw over ALL of the town's DT's.
I still think that if there are DT's out there that they should NOT Role claim to me yet regardless. It should become apparent whether this is all true or not before very long.
How does it become apparent without DTs outing themselves to you or publicly?
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Wow I miss Qatol and Ver this thread is already becoming a bit of a ghost town. We're gonna need more townies to step up and plan. I think we need to figure out how to lay some ground rules for this DT situation so we don't get misled either by semioldguy or false DTs that may try to take advantage of semioldguy/town.
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about 4:40 left in the night
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On March 24 2009 09:00 Bockit wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2009 08:42 semioldguy wrote:
I definitely want to hear from others how we should handle this as a town. I'm imagining it now, the ultimate mafia ploy. SoG (godfather) says he's a DT, lynches a mafia for us, then these other 'dts' roleclaim to him (mafia) and he announces in the thread that he has now been contacted by the other two dts and that if there are any dts out there that he hasn't been in contact with regarding their dt status, they might have some mafia. Three real dts roleclaim to SoG and the next night we have 3 dead dts. It's possible, I think also that a godfather tradeoff for 3 dts is probably worth it from the mafia perspective. I'm not saying SoG is godfather, more that in the interests of the town, I think the dts shouldn't be roleclaiming to anyone quite just yet. As for the clues to check from day 1 (I realise I'm a bit late in the night now, but just in case you haven't checked yet and are still unsure), I think any of the three dreamflower listed would be good ones to try and pin on a player.
SoG doesn't even have to be godfather because all he can be rolechecked to is Mayor.
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I'd like to hear BC explain what he's going to do with the jail tomorrow.
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On March 24 2009 09:36 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I'd like to hear BC explain what he's going to do with the jail tomorrow.
I guess maybe he shouldn't tell us for whatever reason but if so he could explain that.
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On March 24 2009 09:40 fusionsdf wrote:
If he tells us, then mafia just won't target that person. If he gives us hints, then it just makes it easier for mafia too.
I think we just have to trust him
That doesn't make sense, I thought he sends it in one night, and then that person is incarcerated the next day and night. So the incarcerated person wouldn't be invulnerable that night but the mafia instead might target that person before they could be incarcerated.
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Mafia send in hits during night. Sheriff sends in an incarceration during day or night and then it begins with the Day post and ends with the following day post. That means during night 1 or day 1 BC sent in Ace's name to be incarcerated (or i guess he says he sent in a list of potential people) then Ace was protected / power jammed for Day 2 and this current night 2. What that means is if BC calls his incarceration when he sends it in the mafia won't change their hits to avoid hitting an incarcerated player that night because they won't be in jail yet. They don't go into jail until the next day when Chuiu mentions it. The mafia may however move to kill that person before they are incarcerated but that doesnt make too much sense since BC sends in a long list to make sure someone gets the benefit.
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"scooter : the biker clue. it just really sticks out to me. if you've ever had one of those gut feelings that you feel really strongly about. well, this is one for me."
The only other thing I could see for this is Teejing. For some reason that guy is suspicious to me and so I looked for clues for him and he's got nothing in his profile. I know it's not really the right way to go about it (person -> clue) but I tried to think of what a clue might look like for each of the people with no profiles and only names and for Teejing, all I can find about his name is that it seems to be Malaysian. So maybe the other weird shit that he couldn't make out in the biker's tattoos was something in an east asian language like Malay since they tend to be common tattoo subjects of the type that are harder to make out.
Edit: Malaysian is not a language, Malay is.
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On March 24 2009 10:08 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 24 2009 09:03 Bockit wrote:
Also, where is Ace? He's in the lockup but that doesn't stop him being able to speak. And being in lockup, he can't be killed tonight, which means it was his chance to go nuts with clue/behaviour/plans and be safe for another night. I've been watching the game. Honestly I don't really need to do much right now, the town seems to be doing okay 
Oh ho ho. A free rider eh?
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Hey MBH, don't forget definition 3 of humbug, from BC:
"Here is the definition of Humbug
1. Something intended to deceive; a hoax or fraud.
2. A person who claims to be other than what he or she is; an impostor.
3. Nonsense; rubbish.
4. Pretense; deception."
Rubbish = what was in his pocket
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I don't think this one should be forgotten either, also from BC:
+ Show Spoiler +Scara’s killer taunted him, and let him run to a door, open it wide and die. I currently believe that this mafia is the one and only Kennigit. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Kennigitkennigits profile. In it his quote is that he loves catching people in the act, that’s why he whips doors open. In this case he caught scara in the act of fleeing for his life, by having a door whipped wide open and being blown to pieces. As for the taunting, that image has LOL typed over and over before a an annoying image of an asian kid waving and winking. Which could be a taunt.
Kennigit and MoC are both blue names that haven't contributed much to the town this game even though they are pretty smart peeps... I think with so many good leads maybe we should go after the best players first as long as they aren't doing anything for the town?
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EPT
