
TL Mafia 3 [Night 5]
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On October 25 2008 18:34 MYM.Testie wrote: NBANNED FROM LAST GAME FOR WORKING WHILE DEAD Y/N? you fail | ||
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On October 27 2008 11:53 ~OpZ~ wrote: Let's face it, I'm the most useless person in this entire mafia gameWell it could always be a bad idea, look at it, instead plexa might not get any protection and then they waste their bomber... YAY! | ||
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1) I'll be dead within a few days at the very most 2) How do you know you can trust me? 3) How do I know i can trust you? The best thing we as a town can do is think before we lynch - no shadowdrgns this game alright? I'll just be doing the exact same thing i was doing last game >.> | ||
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Town hwaiting | ||
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18. RtS)Night[Mare 6. XCetron 26. iNfuNdiBuLuM 8. mikeymoo 7. BloodyC0bbler 12. Caller 5. Camlito 28. MidnightGladius 36. ulszz 45. FakeSteve[TPR] 4 overlap! they must be true mafia | ||
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Then one person stood atop the gallows embracing the moment he cried out to the town "We can trust no mayor, no governor, no authority this day or the next. We must unite to take care of the problem ourselves. Mafia if you hear me then tremble because we are united in our cause and will strike with cruel precision to drive you from our town." And with that the crowd cheered and their first day of mafia hunting began. Gets me thinking..Ok. Don't rally behind anyone at the moment, mainly because they could be mafia. That way, when they release some "convincing" clues, it could just be the mafia giving out false information. Actually, the mafia could rally the town to lynch another mafia member the first day, thus building trust in the first mafia member. Their kill count won't decrease, anyway. Then, they'll say something along the lines of "hey paramedics, protect me please! I think I'm going to die because I'm giving you guys all this information!". At the end, when all the paramedics are protecting him, if the first mafia was the suicide bomber, he'd just go and suicide himself against some random townie, killing a townie, and multiple paramedics along with him. Just seem soo soo similar =/ either a) Empy has a special role (vigil perhaps?) and has found his way into the clues b) Empy is mafia trying to persuade the town c) This could be way way too obvious Decaf also seems like a prime candidate - almost given to us on a plate as was queasy last game. Perhaps it's better to keep his lynch for later when we have no idea what do to as killing him down doesn't hurt the mafia at all. | ||
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On November 02 2008 20:45 Scorch wrote: It's what we did last game if you recall (with clazziquai in particular). And if you also recall from last game, there are points in time when the town has absolutely no idea where to turn and we do stupid lynches. I don't get that logic. Why would you rather take risks than kill a mafia when you can? Suppose we go by that strategy and lynch a townie today, and then find another mafia tomorrow. Had we killed the first sure mafia today, we could lynch the second mafia tomorrow and reduce killing power without using up any power roles. Plus, as time passes and more information is revealed, it gets less and less likely that we don't know what to do. Not saying decaf is that sure mafia at this point, obviously. EDIT: just found this utterly depressing clue The noose now tight around his neck Chuiu took a look over at the man ready to pull the switch. "Embrace the release that death brings you" Links to myself -> Spirit will set you free=[ plz dont lynch me It brings tears of joy to my eyes to see the tears of angst in theirs. - JeeJee's quote Vengeance was the theme and they felt nothing but ill regard for many of Chuiu's accusers. The Governor and Sheriff were quickly captured by the violent crowd and brought back to the gallows. Being the two who brought up charges on Chuiu they were the two to be lynched by the raving mob. I think there's a nice connection there as well (or at least to other parts of the day post) | ||
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22. aZnvaLiaNce (weak to moderate) I really like this interpretation, and i doubt we're going to get anything stronger from this set of clues unfortunately "Whoever wins, the battle does not end. The loser is set free from the battlefield, while the winner must remain there. And the survivor will live out his life as the warrior until the day he dies." -Big Boss aka Naked Snake "Embrace the release that death brings you", he stated as he pulled the switch ![]() ideally we'd want to not lynch today because this really is just a stab in the dark | ||
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On November 02 2008 23:58 fusionsdf wrote: This is the best plan of action we can take for a number of reasonswell it doesnt have to be hardcore plexa style analysis. Im fine with people reading through the post and just pulling out what they think are clues (and if possible, someone to link the clues to) So Not every poster has to go through profiles (thanks to the work of araav though, this is RIDICULOUSLY easy) If you arent willing to put in time to analyze the clues in a day/night cycle, then your only value to the town is as a voter who just follows the herd. In other words, players like that, ideally, are the ones we want mafia to first hit. And If we have no good mafia suspects, we want to lynch the inactives first. I mean unless you are really really lazy, there is going to be someone more inactive than you. The more you contribute, the less danger you are in. IF YOU DONT WANT TO BE LYNCHED TONIGHT, POST. INACTIVES JUST HURT THE TOWN 1) Increases safety of blues 2) Forces the mafia to post or get lynched (creating material to judge them by) 3) If we do miss, if the player is inactive they are dead weight to the town anyway | ||
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On November 03 2008 00:29 [GiTM]-Ace wrote: aznvalience is stacked upon further inspection - but its much much better to wait and see if evidence builds upI'm not to great on the clue gathering myself but from the clues posted by caller only aznvaliance looks decent enough to look into. And well the decaf one but that seems way to obv. | ||
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"NO IM KAWAIIRICE" could easily be extrapolated to the idea of a last meal without bending things too much (similar to mafia clues last game). Obviously if we see clues in the future relating to cuteness or food caller definitely needs to be examined closer | ||
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On November 03 2008 00:38 KH1031 wrote: Mafia kill activesHow does lynching inactives help the town? Don't get me wrong, having inactives hurt the game, but I do not think it necessarily hurt the town. Having inactives alive will create more buffer head counts in town. Having them dead just increases the number of dead blues. I do, however, agree that we make everyone post so that we have some material to work with, as well as telling if they are active or not. Actives actively vote If it comes down to the wire town wants to maximize actives to avoid mafia vote rigging hence killing inactive is good | ||
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fusion plan for today Ace plan longterm imo | ||
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Day 1 - person speaks up, orders people to vote in places; DT checks him but doesn't speak up Day 2 - person orders a second list of hits; DT checks a list an gets number of mafia Day 3 - DT speaks up, posts all his information and gets lynched Thus the DT has used his two most useful abilities already and is no longer a liability to the town. Knowing a DT is alive and having to protect him every night is a pain in the ass (see Empyrean from last game) especially seeing that the suicide bomber will likely get him. Thus we remove a liability from our side (keeping everything more secret in terms of medics) as well as verifying a leader - who is also a liability (can't have two liabilities am i right?). Also because the lynch lists were ordered, we can easily check lists and find out where the mafia are. Also, if we lynch the person instead of the DT then mafia can just fake-role claim DT and we lose a jack or a veteran. AND we have the possibility of the mafia confusing things when DTs are saying opposing things. Lynching the DT is the only way to be sure. EDIT: to ensure that we are only using one DT how about DT's pm him and when he receives a pm from a DT he says that he has got a pm from a DT and then the others don't have to pm him anymore (obviously he'd have to say that hes online for the next X minutes so DTs dont pm spam him). If the DT dies prematurely the "leader" looks pretty bad// on second thought this won't work -_-; | ||
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On November 03 2008 01:21 Falcynn wrote: And then do you notice how suspicious it is when that person NEVER gets hit by mafia? I'm pretty sure they can, but that's irrelevant. I'll give an example of what I mean. Mafia1 claims to be veteran. Mafia2 claims to be a detective who role checked Mafia1 and found out the he's mafia. The town rallies to lynch Mafia1, he turns up red and the town assumes that Mafia2 must be a detective. Do you see how that can be dangerous? With that being said, it is far far far safer to lynch the person calling the role check EDIT: with that being said using the three day plan proposed by myself maximizes the use out of a legit DT and is what we should be looking for.. having both a DT and a vet alive and target for the mafia is just bad - and we cant afford to have two liabilities hanging around. | ||
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Is the life of one DT worth that of one mafia? | ||
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On November 03 2008 01:30 Caller wrote: Couldn't we start by say ordering all current suspects to vote on x person and all others to vote on y person? All deviants could then be lynched, etc. Then we have a dt check x list (or all of them) and one of them posts DT says so-and-so? at which point we see if mafia kills him/her that night and if they don't then we get dt to role-check somebody (like me) and see if they confirm the role or not? And if they role-check mafia, well, free lynch lol. On the other hand if the DT is a fake they'll either reveal themselves really easily or end up sacrificing a mafia to keep the illusion alive for one more turn. On November 03 2008 01:10 Plexa wrote: I think lynching the DT is best.. but we do it like this Day 1 - person speaks up, orders people to vote in places; DT checks him but doesn't speak up Day 2 - person orders a second list of hits; DT checks a list an gets number of mafia Day 3 - DT speaks up, posts all his information and gets lynched Thus the DT has used his two most useful abilities already and is no longer a liability to the town. Knowing a DT is alive and having to protect him every night is a pain in the ass (see Empyrean from last game) especially seeing that the suicide bomber will likely get him. Thus we remove a liability from our side (keeping everything more secret in terms of medics) as well as verifying a leader - who is also a liability (can't have two liabilities am i right?). Also because the lynch lists were ordered, we can easily check lists and find out where the mafia are. Also, if we lynch the person instead of the DT then mafia can just fake-role claim DT and we lose a jack or a veteran. AND we have the possibility of the mafia confusing things when DTs are saying opposing things. Lynching the DT is the only way to be sure. The second part sounds interesting though | ||
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On November 03 2008 01:36 Amber[LighT] wrote: Case 1: Person claiming vet is mafia I'm still not following on why we are planning to lynch our own DT's after 3 days. It's not making too much sense at the moment. Why not just keep them alive as long as possible if they get sufficient information. If they get killed then so what, their information will be very helpful either way. I'm going to give your plan another read Ace and we can try it out for a couple of days, but I would rather not lynch someone who's helping us. -> DT speaks up on day 3 with information that the person is mafia -> Kills a mafia for the town for the price of one DT (would have happened anyway when person role checks and speaks up if we dont have a leader) -> Get's more information than normally without leader for the life a DT -> Town +1 Mafia -1 DT = reasonably fair trade off Case 2: Person claiming vet is NOT mafia -> DT doesn't speak up -> No one is lynched, and we have a leader | ||
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On November 03 2008 01:51 HeRoS)Pink wrote: If everyone is posting it hides blues equally as well as being inactiveI don't get why we are lynching an inactive townie on day 1, I mean most of the blues won't post much in order to stay alive and use their power at least one time. Since there's no mayor I don't think any DT will try analyzing clues risking to be killed by mafia on night 1, it would be a total waste of a DT. I can only imaging Vet or townies analyzing clues or even mafia. Well that's only my opinion | ||
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On November 03 2008 02:26 Empyrean wrote: You know DT's only get 2 list checks right?My plan is much the same as the Mandalor plan of last game, which is to have two groups of people vote for the two top suspects. We'll have this go on for a few days, while the detectives take turns alternating checking the lists while the last detective checks one at random each night. After, say, four lynch votes, the detectives will reveal their list of how many mafia voted for each candidate, and we can use simple math from there. At this point, the two original DTs reveal their lists (and will likely be killed) while the third just waits. If any mafia decide to claim DT and give a conflicting view, the third DT will speak up. He'll likely get killed the next night as well. But still, once all the detectives are dead, we will have six-eight Mandalor style lists, as well as the names of any mafia who roleclaimed DT (since the DTs are dead, anyone who gave conflicting information by roleclaming DT will logically be mafia). | ||
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On November 03 2008 02:26 fusionsdf wrote: When decaf acted as a vigil there were no clues in the scene because mafia hit him that night as well - it was one of the most memorable nights oft he game haha boy there were like 25 nights, so that would take a looong time to go through. But for instance when naruto vigid, he left clues behind that day post saying things like "the victim was animated" or something like that I think plexa probably remember most of these better than I do ![]() | ||
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my mistake | ||
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No time to read the thread, and saw that there was this plan in motion so i'll blindly follow it | ||
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On November 03 2008 16:43 fanatacist wrote: This is such mafia reasoning. I strongly suspect you as mafia after what happened during the random drawing - and now this? I can't find any clues to link to you right now but damn, you look like a mafia. Also, how about getting another DT to check up on Folca? I don't think I can vote for anyone until I have a double-verification of some sort. Wouldn't it seem likely for a Mafia to get rid of an active with strong analysis like Ace? I mean, I guess this is why we would be killing Folca too, but is it worth the loss of Ace? | ||
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On November 03 2008 10:28 MTF wrote: Can you honestly say decaf is a better candidate than Gladius? Not saying that decaf isn't mafia; but imo the clues a stronger in Gladius's direction especially seeing that coffee has been in other chuiu clues. Ugh, sorry guys. Short version of today is that my internet went down. (long story involves a loose hamster chewing through internet cables) Anyway, I haven't had time to read through the thread yet, but here's my assessment on the clues so far. Keep in mind that all of these connections are going to be weak, as we're just starting here. MidnightGladius: Profile Quote: "It's time to acknowledge the inevitable. Stifle your pride and embrace the glory of change." Clues: + Show Spoiler + "the noose now tight around his neck Chuiu took a look over at the man ready to pull the switch. "Embrace the release that death brings you", he stated as he pulled the switch." "Then one person stood atop the gallows embracing the moment he cried out to the town" Both instances of the word "embrace" are during a time of change, which directly correlates with the profile quote. EDIT: P.S I like your plan Folca (you must have posted while i was searching for this analysis). Best thing we can do imo - losing a DT this early is a real drawback for the town. I change my vote, and vote for MightnightGladius | ||
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On November 04 2008 01:16 Bockit wrote: I would just like to chip in and say that this is a nice simplification of the whole thing. I agree with this.Ok, finally caught up with a majority of posts. I think there are two options right now. 1)Lynch Folca. This gives us so much information it's ridiculous. If he comes up as a detective we know Ace is mafia and we stop a mafia scheme, all the stuff Folca has been saying is good about how he found Ace out etc. If he pops red then while still unsure about Ace's allegiance we just killed a mafia and stopped a scheme. 2)Lynch based on clues and see what mafia do tonight. If they kill him, well, yeah. If they don't, we get more info from him and then lynch him to see if he's dt or not. Not sure which I would go for atm. Probably 1. | ||
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If you have to post that many times after yourself please just edit your first post quintuple posts are not acceptable | ||
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1) No OSL news for the finals 2) No mafia clue analysis, or any sign of being active in mafia The reason for both of these is that I am currently in finals season, i had one two days ago, and i have one in aprrox 8.25 hours. I won't be able to do anything mafia related until after monday (KST) so until then why should the mafia waste a hit on me when you have so many other people who are posting useful and relevant analysis on the current situation. The 4 who died were the most active posters advocating for decaf's lynch iirc? There's got to be something in that. I haven't done much analysis and only read over the thread a few times, but the fact that they tried so hard to get decaf lynched and now are dead mean one of two things; a) The mafia wanted us to observe that all these people wanted decaf dead are now dead themselves, and because decaf is mafia, people would think that this move by the mafia means that decaf is green (and want the townies to waste a lynch on decaf) as killing off all his accusers looks really suspicious and makes decaf look like a mafia. b) Mafia is stupid, and just exposed decaf as mafia basically a) Mafia is trying to fake out the town, b) Mafia just fucked up really bad haha | ||
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![]() btw ~OpZ~ do you really think i was going to die the first night? do you not think i had protection last night? last night i had protection, but i didn't get hit (of course i was going to get protection -.-; mafia would have known this) mafia aren't that dumb to waste a hit on me ![]() anyway heading out to my exam now - wish me luck! | ||
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On November 12 2008 17:30 araav wrote: Here's what has happened. On saturday i was preparing my OSL post when my dad suddenly collapses. One trip to the hospital later he gets given a mandate to either change his eating habits or die a painful death, he is still currently hospitalized. Needless to say mafia is my lowest priority at this moment. GJ BloodyC0bbler. Plexa being very quiet may he's either mafia or has a vulnerable blue job and does not want to attract mafia. either way, he's going to die soon and show his true color On November 12 2008 17:30 Scorch wrote: i haven't posted since saturday I very much like the "special fireman = man on fire" connection. As for the rest, i dunno. He's been extremely quiet in the thread though, although he made 30 posts last week elsewhere. ![]() PS if you want to lynch me go ahead. If you think it will be for the benefit of the town to lynch an inactive then go for it, i'm not going to defend myself. | ||
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On November 13 2008 01:43 fusionsdf wrote: What is this fusionsdf? Do you not realize how trivial mafia is to me at the moment? Have you not seen me on msn in the past few days? Seriously, fuck you.You better start doing some serious clue analysis quickly or you will be lynched. Right now you are both inactive and have clues implicating you not a good place to be Go on just lynch me and let me get this shit over with. I don't want this stuff hanging over my head. | ||
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On November 13 2008 12:02 ulszz wrote: Do you really think i would lie about something like that for the sake of some little mafia game? I hope i die tonight..honestly that plexa fusionsdf convo looks so fuckin staged. i wouldn't be surprised if both were mafia... i vote to lynch plexa edit- add convo | ||
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Let's sum up all the traits about me. Firstly, and most importantly, my quote is central to my profile. My username bears no association to any word or theme as it is a derivative of the word googolplex; a fact Chuiu would have no idea about. In addition to that the picture in my profile is fairly useless - bar the connection to spirituality. Awesome, so let's get back to my quote. There are two central parts to my quote - "Spirit will set you free" and "special fireman" - two likely sources of clues. Now let's track the clues. Day 1 saw the mention of "death bringing release". With aznvaliance now out of the picture, it's safe to say that if this is a clue it is pointing towards me (a detective can verify this as part of his powers.) Also note that at this point my quote only had the "spirit will set you free part" basically forcing Chuiu into a spirituality based clue. Hence if there were to be a clue, then Day 1 would have referred to spirituality. Day 2 saw a bizarre display of alliteration which in no way could connect to myself. So we come to Day 3, and notice by this time my quote was updated to include the fireman clause. Notice that in the last paragraph you have the mafia scaling a building (one later to die that night, thus a clue referring to the living mafia). This is a trait which is central to the job of a fireman. Thus a very nice connection there. You could further and say that the fact that he was restrained lightly and clumsily stabbed means that that fireman was "special", if you know what i mean. So by Day 4 things aren't looking too good for myself, and to make things worse the final character introduced in the final paragraph fits the description of a fireman. Maybe not special, but certainly that of a fireman. He is very very strong (smashing the shit out of naruto) but is also protected against needles - thanks to his overcoat which protects him from flames etc - but also is thick thus prevents the needles from penetrating his skin. Thus the description first that perfectly of a fireman. This same character reappears in the first paragraph of Day 5 and the strength of a fireman perfectly matches the strength described in the post. What im trying to say is; there's a very good case for myself being mafia. So what can i do to clear myself or rather convince you all that im not. Well heres a few options; firstly you can get a detective to role check me (doh) which really is pretty pointless seeing as instead you could check if the clue from Day 1 connects to me - its pretty obvious that if there were a clue about myself in the first post then that particular phrase would connect to me. This is the better option because this skill is reuseable unlike the role check but should give you the same information. Lastly i'm also willing to change my signature, should the town desire, and as we've seen all the clues have come from there up until now. Thus if there is a distinct change in clues to match my new signature then presto! I'm mafia. Obviously, I'll make my new sig clue friendly like "I'm a big yellow ball!" so there will be unmistakably a clue linking to that. So there you have it town your options are a) Blind lynch b) Check me with a DT (wasteful) c) Check me using the clue from day 1 (not wasteful) d) Quote change It's really up to you guys on how you want to proceed. On a side note, either way im going to be incredibly inactive and this is probably the one substantial post im going to make in this entire forum for awhile. | ||
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Scorch's analysis is wrong. [Wikipedia] Potassium fluoride is the chemical compound with the formula KF. KF is poisonous, although lethal doses approach gram levels for humans. It is harmful by inhalation and ingestion, highly corrosive and skin contact may cause severe burns. Day 2: Sounds like he was poisoned over the wound. This clue is must better linked to Ace than any other person in this game.Day 3: KF causes severe burns when touched. This doesn't make sense as it doesn't connect to the fact that the mafia left many footsteps and burned him. KF doesn't relate to the first part thus this clue, although a clever link, isn't actually a clue linking to KF as it contradict the first part.Day 4: KF is harmful by inhalation. Though this might have been a plain old choke hold, so perhaps this is no clue. Precisely, no clue at all. KF91's quote: "That was weird" Weird is a better connection to the fact that the cord was tugged from a strange angle because of the mafia tampering with it. Chuiu would never explicitly say weird either, he would have said strange. Could it be that the murderer injected venomous KF using Naruto's syringes? Unlikely, Chuiu uses the needle pattern regularly when medic die (see last game for instance). It's most likely morphine. Besides, you've tried to connect KF to two different sets of clues within a single day. Can we make something out of this? Maybe I'm just thinking too far. KF is not mafia. + KF91 doesn't vote or talk + It must be kinda hard to tie reasonable clues to a name like KF91 - No clues against him on Day 5 | ||
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On November 16 2008 13:40 Jimtudor wrote: Turtle + defensive theme. What's the case against mtf though? | ||
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WHAT HAPPENED T_T! | ||
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![]() didn't count on a dT actually role checking me though, i was hoping for a clue check | ||
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On November 18 2008 23:15 Chuiu wrote: hahahah hilariousYou said it yourself a while ago, mafia shot themselves in the foot. There was a couple unfortunate coincidences with clues (coffee IS NOT a clue for decafchicken for one) which fueled the fire. But most of the time it was one or two mafia getting accused and one or two defending them then getting lynched or vigi'ed because of that. Mafia, you typically don't want to defend or accuse your allies as much as you did. | ||
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