TL Mafia 2 [GG]
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Honestly, if you want my opinion on how to lynch the first person, I would look at the clues first, find how people who have *voted* relate to clues vaguely (and i mean like in an easy sense, such as Mr. blue -> Oneblueaugust, Mr. pink -> that guy with )pink (sorry i cant remember your name)), and pick from that list of people. They have to have voted, and then i would look at their posts, small posts, or posts that sound illogical, or something not ordinary. You have to remember, townies have no reason to lie, and aren't trying to hide anything (except maybe vigilantes), where as mafia HAVE to lie to stay concealed and look like a townie. PS. I also thought that Chuiu mentioned how he was going to move special roles from inactive people to active people somewhere. If that is true, we just lost a mad hatter, and it would of been better to kill a townie for such a reason of keeping our special roles. | ||
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As said before in another post, Townies naturally will be telling the truth (or i hope so, they have nothing to hide), while Mafia will be trying to lie and appear to be telling the truth. Eventually the lies will catch up to them and they will be caught. | ||
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On March 20 2008 18:00 Naib wrote: Or maybe just stop with the senseless one-liners, as there's too much to read for anyone who just sleeps regularly. Not to mention those who don't have time to check here more than once a day. Shall we? its like 6:30 am here, so im kind of just doing stuff for fun ^^, im about to sleep though, g'night | ||
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On March 22 2008 12:07 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Mynock, I've had enough of these immature random accusations. I understand if you're just trying to have fun, but confusing the town is never a good thing. you are confusing me shallow, stop posting these crazy antics! Can't wait for day btw =P | ||
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"Mr. Blonde had braced himself on the ceiling and swooped down from above diving strait into Mynock." - Swooped down from above. Much like a bird of prey, or a fight jet in a dog fight, things that fly going after a target. "They traded glares and Mynock dodged to the left and headed up his stairs not clearly deciphering the yells that came from behind him or caring." - possibly a link to not being clear on sound, unsoundlogic? we had a clue in day 1 about something that just didnt make sense, now we hear yells that are not clearly deciphering, but it could just be part of the story. "He tried to find the shotgun he had stashed in his closet but only found a smiley in its place." - a smiley? possibly a reference to someones posting style, or someone who uses smileys a lot in their posts? "He dived toward Mr. Blonde in effort to tackle him but Mynock's attack was cut short as he ate a mouthful of buckshot." - ate a mouthful, just like in day 1, eat lead for dinner, another reference to eating lead (because obviously a shotgun shoots lead) "He kept trying but dropped the phone and gave up when he noticed the rest of the electronics in the house going haywire." - a jamming device, possibly people whose names refer to electronics, or if they themselves deal with electronics. "Cottonmouth quickly picked up his target once more and finished him off throwing three knives into each of his legs and three in his back." - 3 sets of 3? something with the number 3, possibly in their name, or a quote. "Yogurt and OneBlueAugust were playing a game of pool in the basement minding their own business when they heard the sound resonate from the house next door." - sound resonate, possible clue, not going to rule it out, but i dont think its a solid clue. "they had each had their share of the drink that evening and were ready to fight an army if one would present itself" - Another relation to Ghar's quote, surrounded by enemy divisions, willing to fight any one that got in their way. "OneBlueAugust was getting up ready to fight Mr. Pink but slipped on some gooey substance on the ground." - gooey substance, im going with its a clue, but im not sure to who yet. That is all i saw that jumped out at me aside from this last tidbit. During the last paragraph with OneBlueAugust and Yogurt, there were multiple comments about relative ease, or easy opponents, easy fight, etc. Possibly a link to someone in mafia. Edit: to make it easier to read per say Mr. Bob a few posts later (lemme know if you want it looking like something else) | ||
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On March 22 2008 14:06 SonuvBob wrote: Nice, are there any other clues pointing to either of them? Unforgiven_ve has a pink rabbit as his avatar, possible correlation to Mr. Pink | ||
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On March 22 2008 14:25 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Using the long hair as a handle and the head as a weight Mr. Pink smashed OneBlueAugust continually with Mynocks head. http://teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=suresh0t He's holding a hammer? Maybe this one is a stretch, but whatever. I don't think any Pink references fit him. Dont forget that from last game when Chuiu wrote clues, not all clues that we expected to be pointed at a mafia were pointing at that mafia. Some clues that seemed to say point at Empyrean, could have pointed at Fen in game 1. So that clue may relate to suresh0t, even if he has Mr. Pink as a code name. the code name just could be referencing a mafia in general. | ||
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On March 22 2008 14:36 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Last game we just hit random people, with one or two threats thrown in (Mynock this round). This makes me think, although nowhere near 100% certainty, that either someone is mafia again this game or that they were just paying attention to our strategy (maybe a lurker from last game). Not really anything to go on and the Sidewinder from Day 1. I actually don't believe this theory of their randomness, yet. They hit multiple people who talked alot, Mynock, Oneblueaugust. They put forth multiple posts that were positive for the town. Also, they only hit 5/9 people, so that means 4 people were protected (go medics!), so possibly they were hitting targets that they believe are going to be useful for the game, people who talk a lot about clues, or try and get people to post and incur discussion. I'm surprised they didn't try to hit me last night, I made a few posts that were fairly insightful to townies that don't play as often as others. | ||
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On March 25 2008 05:18 Showtime! wrote: yeah, the odds aren't in their favor. I'm still kind of weirded out by this mafia list thing and how it works exactly. So they are allowed to provide a list of 9 people to target? Lets say they pick 5 or even 3. So if they pick five how does the split work? Does the person at the list pretty much automatically die if they push all their members on them if they have protection? If it's three well shit son I guess all three would die because you would have at least 6 on one person. it goes like this: To: Chuiu From: Mafia leader, Eddie Here is our kill list for tonight: 1. suspect 1 2. suspect 2 3. suspect 3 4. showtime! 5. shallowbay 6. 7. 8. 9. If they send that list, they only use 5 hits, therefore, if they want to hit shallow twice, it should look like this 1. suspect 1 2. suspect 2 3. suspect 3 4. showtime! 5. shallowbay 6. shallowbay 7. 8. 9. and if they really wanted to kill shallow: 1. shallowbay 2. shallowbay 3. shallowbay 4. shallowbay 5. shallowbay 6. shallowbay 7. shallowbay 8. shallowbay 9. shallowbay If they leave any slot blank, they dont kill anyone on the list twice, its just a no kill period. | ||
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edit: grammar | ||
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Saying using the powers on 2x groups of 29 on a 10/58 group of mafia is his worst choice (it isnt, the 1/7 is). That means the remaining people are thrown into a group of (103-65 = 38), that means 9/38 (~23.4%) of guessing. The only problem with having those 38 vote, is that A) They all voted for different people/abstained B) They didn't vote at all, meaning they are away, not wanting to post So what Ace is doing is he is having the people he know for sure posted and voted, to use them, rather than trying an uncertainty of getting people that may be away/inactive to vote. That is why his way is the most reasonable way of doing the votes. If i had anything to guess at, he probably will use a double lynch tomorrow because of the 2 groups, because otherwise you will have 2 even groups (but that could change with the day post) | ||
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On March 26 2008 16:38 Alethios wrote: Going on prior evidence, the Mafia are more likely, statistically to be the ones lurking. So i'm not sure what evidence you have to say it's better than choosing the group that didn't vote/abstain... Furthermore, I'm not required to provide an alternate plan in order to point out that the current one is stupid, but I shall anyway. 1) Vote how you see fit, acting upon Ace's evidence against somebody if you wish. This has worked well in the past, and will again. 2) Detectives use their powers to find out useful information. One such use would be to check the new (fresh) lists for mafia and cross-referencing the two lists. This will almost certainly result in far better results. 3) Don't let yourself become removed from the loop. Yes, I think we should trust Ace for now... but don't allow yourself to become a bystander, as it puts too much trust in Ace. Satisfied? Bet you thought I wouldn't come up with one. One thing you must remember is that the burden of proof is on the accuser, therefore if you are going to attack his plan and call it retarded, but not put forth another plan that should be taken instead, then we in reality don't move forward. While making up our own minds and not jumping on bandwagons is a good idea, that will result in possibly a few things, A) Such as too many dispersed votes, meaning there will be more lists of votes than detectives can check, B) Mafia will try to coerce people into voting against other townies, because everyone will have to decipher clues themselves (and not everyone is good at it) C) Some people won't care to think for themselves and just pick the first person they see with a reasonable argument and vote who they voted for. With Ace's plan, he knows for certain the names of guaranteed townies, therefore they can all put input in on things together, trusting each other, rather than having to trust dead people and question all people who are alive. Reasonably, I think his plan is fine for what we should do. If you have a better plan than the regular saying of "Think on your own, its safer because you don't know if so-and-so is mafia or not.", then I don't think other people are going to listen to much that you have to say. PS. No, I did not think that you weren't going to respond, you wanted to start the argument, I believed that you would continue it, not just post once and vanish. | ||
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On March 26 2008 16:44 Alethios wrote: 1) Lets say we do the split. (putting aside all the concerns about where that might leave us) Lets look at the numbers. Chances are, the Death Cult members will be split reasonably evenly amongst the groups, resulting in similar percentages to what we have now. Nothing can be done with this information, but to repeat the process. Resulting in multiple Kangaroo courts each time hoping that we get lucky and a Mafia member is singled out. 2) He sets up the suspects, uses the double lynch and forces us to vote the way he wants us to. Can you not see how much power this will give him? It doesn't matter if they split evenly, he is forcing the mafia to vote, AND he is making them vote the way he wants them to. Otherwise they could vote for whoever they wish, whether abstain, or voting for someone with little votes to make it look like they are trying to be helpful. The fact that he has that power means he is forcing the mafia to play on his own terms. That puts the mafia at a disadvantage because that means they will be voting for their fellow teammates (as shown with Mandolar). He sets up the suspects, yes, he does, it gives him a lot of power, but I see no reason as to not trust him as of yet. No detectives have spoken up yet, I've talked to him in PMs a couple times, and he seems no threat to me at all as a townie. Therefore, until he pulls some stunt that warrants enough suspicion, I have no problem with him using such power to have the town move forward in lynching mafia. Also, even if I did have a problem with it, there would be nothing I could do since the vast majority of the town trusts Ace, and will follow him. | ||
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Also, based off of your first post, the 1/7 groups is statistically the worst decision to try to go after in theory (which is what you are basing your post on). In reality, it moves us closer to 1 mafia, but that could take up to 2 more turns to find (say he is in the 4 group, split 2/2, then split 1/1), where as the group of 10/58 could be split into smaller groups which find more mafia in smaller groups (you could easily see 4 or 5 mafia in a group of 14 the very next day, which is anywhere from 27%-32% chance of mafia), but aside from that, we find innocent townies. Yes, find the 1/7 group will find us 6 innocents, but breaking up the large group of 58, we could find groups of 14 or more innocent people. A big deal with this is the number of detective abilities we are allowed to use, therefore eventually some groups won't be questioned about. Therefore while i see that 1/7 is easier to figure out, I would rather move along with the 2 groups of 29 because you are going to find more mafia faster, giving vigilantes targets, allowing us to reduce mafia kill count faster. Finding one mafia compared to finding 10 mafia, I will stay on the 10 side. Its taking a risk, but that risk has a much larger reward compared to finding the 1 mafia (which Ace has already stated that we will find that one, because he is checking the group of 7 as well as the 2 groups of 29). So I really don't see why its such a huge deal that he is making people vote the way he wants to tomorrow. As it stands, nobody has spoken against Ace, so he is trustworthy, both the group of 7 and 58 will be checked tomorrow (you said we should check the group of 7, its being done already). Cross checking the lists takes extra time, more notes, and most of all, sometimes it doesn't work. I would rather go with a concrete list of, I know this many people on this list are Mafia, so I want to keep it that way. I have no problem with that thinking, and until it proves ineffective I believe its the route that Ace is going to take for finding mafia. | ||
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On March 26 2008 16:56 Alethios wrote: Well done for once again, missing my point entirely. Also good job on skimming over the bits of my original post you didn't care to argue with. Yes criminals had to vote against Mandolar. He was dead anyway, and the mafia would not have swayed the vote in any case. ---------- I realise Ace is highly trustworthy. I realise most of the town will follow him whatever he decides to do. What does that matter though? Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. Highly trustworthy does not mean is can't be a demon in disguise. Highly trustworthy DOES NOT mean that townies should defer ALL power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. I did read your entire post, and my post was relevant to point 1, and 2. If the vote is split evenly, then mafia are going to be found whether it was cross checked or not. Working with smaller numbers is easier (as noted in the previous post). Also, while criminals voted against Mandolar, it wasn't because they wanted to, they had to vote or be cast in suspicion. What if that group of 58 was all townies? The mafia wouldn't of swayed the vote, but they voted anyway to keep us guessing as long as possible. Well now Ace is continuing to force them to vote, otherwise they will be exposed even faster. Highly trustworthy does not mean he is incapable of making mistakes. - I never said he was infallible, I am just saying that he knows more guaranteed townies than I do, therefore he has more information than i do. Highly trustworthy does no mean he can't be a demon in disguise. - This has been proven wrong, time and time again. While it is a possibility, I highly doubt that no detectives (definitely by night 2, would have been working for him (we have had 2 for the lists of day 1 lynchings)) would have not spoken up saying he was mafia. Also, if he was mafia, why would he deliberately tell us where 11 mafia were? That doesn't sound logical Highly trustworthy does not mean that townies should defer all power to him, as we are in danger of doing currently. - While I agree with this to a certain degree, I don't defer all my power to him, I could abstain tomorrow, Ace knows my role, and it would not change the findings on the detective checks tomorrow. However, a normal townie should have nothing to fear by voting by his word, because he has done nothing to prove that he is mafia (because of the detectives). Those 3 statements you made may make sense to you, but to me, 1 is telling me that Ace is human, and not perfect, and the other 2 have been proven wrong, and proven not to be hazardous yet, so I don't see anything wrong with his plan. | ||
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On March 26 2008 17:10 Alethios wrote: Find me where I confused you with Ace. If I said Ace, I was talking to Ace (It is his plan after all, not yours). Extra time? Negative. What takes extra time is forcing votes for 4 turns to find 1 mafia (and you tell me this is the best group?). 4 turns, each time increasing the number of detectives you need... Thats 6 lots of DT power you are suggesting just for the smaller group (which I said right from the beginning was the best). Don't even get me started on the time and resources required to produce results from the group of 58... FIFTY EIGHT PEOPLE. You're looking at weeks of game time, and many many DT powers used when they could be doing something more useful. Again, missing all the points you didn't like to counter. My argument was never meant to be taken on a point by point basis. Even when it is however, it still stands up to your current ideas. You haven't even touched for a second on the inherent problems with forced voting (for a huge number of turns your suggesting), even leaving aside that you cut out any entertainment that those townies might have had. From this post: On March 26 2008 16:49 Alethios wrote: Whats more, why bother posting rough numbers? You ARE on a computer you know. You COULD calculate these things properly easily. By saying that the 1/7 group is the worse list really shows how little thought you've put into this. Just because there is a slightly higher percentage of Assassins in the larger list, doesn't mean it's somehow easier to get at them. They are hidden amongst the masses, requiring a huge amount of effort to get at. At least with the 1/7 group, a single repeater will put the Assassin in a new list with, at worst, a 25% Assassin percentage. Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace? Please drop this plan. Cross referencing lists will be far more effective at singling out Undead. At the bottom, "Can't you see i'm talking sense Ace?" Ace hasn't responded to you since last page, you have been talking with me the entire page. Also from your first post: On March 26 2008 15:35 Alethios wrote: That being said, I by and large trust Ace and I have a large dose of respect for many of his ideas... but what has prompted me to speak up is this plan of his for tomorrow's vote. IT'S RETARDED. As far as my posts, they were directed at mostly this. All your point from my point of view is about tomorrows votes, not future votes past tomorrow. Therefore, all these extra resources that you say I am saying we should do (I put them out there as something that could happen, because as it is now, that is what Ace's plan is, I don't know if he will continue to use that as his plan or not). Therefore a majority of your counter points (or first points according to you) are from what I am saying about days past tomorrow. Don't think like that, I am posting because you say this plan is retarded for tomorrow's votes, not day 4, or 5, or 6, but day 3. So until you get over the fact that I am talking about tomorrow, I am going to ask you to stop having negativity towards me about future days. Ace could have a different plan for then, I don't know, all I know is what the plan is tomorrow. Also, as much as I hate to say it, but if people aren't having fun playing mafia this way, maybe mafia isn't for them. I myself am having a good time, whether you or other people aren't means you are playing for different reasons than I, or that your concept of fun is different of mine. | ||
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On March 26 2008 17:18 Alethios wrote: I see i'm going to have to stick with this. Nice job continuing to argue against my argument without reading the majority of it. I'm especially annoyed you argue against my point that Ace could be a Minion of Baal without realising that i've already addressed that point. Likewise with my point about deferring power. I've addressed this, by voting the way Ace wants us to we defer ALL the power (as townies) that we have (to vote). If we don't obey, the system breaks down, if somebody goes inactive for a day, the system breaks down. Following Ace's current plan is giving absolute power to him for indefinite amount of time. I'm not suggesting voting for the person Ace puts forward (like last time). Again, read what I said so I don't have to keep reposting it. I know you are not suggesting we vote for the person Ace puts forward tomorrow, you are against it. I've been posting this entire last page about how we should follow Ace's plan, not against it (like you have). If I was against his plan I wouldn't even of bothered posting, however as you said, if people don't follow the plan, it will break down, to an extent. If mafia don't follow the voting plan, then we find ourselves lots of townies, if townies don't follow it, we find some townies, but gain little ground finding mafia. And for the last thing I have to say (its 4:30 am, I am kind of tired), I have addressed your points in your argument, you just seem that what I am saying doesn't apply to them. If you wanted me to break your post down sentence by sentence I could, but I was answering generally to the points that you seemed to advocate. | ||
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On March 27 2008 10:35 Empyrean wrote: Wait, don't they use focused sound waves to crush up the kidney stone into itty bitty pieces so you can pee them out later? i believe it depends on where in the kidney it is. | ||
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If there is a mafia in the chat room (which seems unlikely from Ace's talk so far, he seems very surefire or no access type), then no harm done. However, that doesn't seem like the case, so I feel that Araav pulled a very disappointing move. A big thing to me about this is that the town needs coordination, and someone pulling a move like that really just is a low blow to the town, considering no one from the town as far as I know would even try to do that to the mafia. I mean while you're at it Araav you could of just gotten everyone's account info and looked at their PM's? It is almost equal in what you pulled, considering that most people in that channel are bound to be blue. | ||
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On April 03 2008 00:26 CDRdude wrote: So do we have any information on the suspects for tomorrow? Do the detectives have new information for us? yes, and they all lead to you dieing! Be afraid. | ||
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Think about it this way, the mafia KNOW who is not mafia, therefore they can just kill anyone they want, they don't need an objective, all the detectives are dead, apparently our 1 jack is mia, and to top if off, our mayor is still thinking he holds all the cards to the game. Get this through your head, the town is a team, not a mayor and followers. You tried that, and fucked up, so you need to adapt and change, or you aren't going to have a town anymore. Plexa is doing a damn great job and all you are doing is releasing tidbits of info to keep townies following you. Put your votes to good use, not some random "i hope so and so shuts up because im lynching them". That proved to be a horrible idea, both in game 1 and this game, again. Learn from the past already. | ||
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On April 12 2008 12:08 Ace wrote: Ok here's what we know about last night for sure - EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POST - REVISED Mafia Kill List for Night 4 1.)Hittegods 2.)xDark.Carnivalx 3.)Lenwe (protected once) - Medic #1 4.)Lenwe 5.)Caller 6.)Meta All of these were legit - now here's something interesting. 7.) Plexa (protected) Medic2 8.)Plexa (protected) Medic3 9.) Jack (I told him to put vet status on) took 1 hit 10.) Jack (protected) Medic 5 9+10 has to count as 1 action for this to be true. This is the final kill list for Mafia last night. uhm, if a vet is hit while medic is protecting him, medic protects first (so both are notified) if he loses a night life chuiu will tell him he lost a night life. Assuming he got targeted twice, it would tell him he was protected by a medic and then tell him he incurred a night life as well. | ||
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he is talking about scorches post of who would be a better suspect than him as Mr.Pink. Scorch thinks Rts)Night[Mare is Mr.pink (few posts up) and Rts is just saying if ulszz is mafia, then rts has to be innocent. | ||
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On April 27 2008 05:17 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: We should lynch Randombum and LostYourSkills. If you look in the mafia voting paterns, MOST mafiosos have voted for Randombum, and LostYourSkills quote matches eddie's evolution. began being lucky and turned to be skilled in the end. hmmm? That seems inefficient, you are asking us to lynch 2 people (one who is not a real suspect at all currently, and another who is not as strong as multiple that we have currently) all for a guess imho. If randombum was mafia, im sure he could of swayed the vote better for himself in the beginning to be mayor. I also believe that if he was mafia, why hasnt he pardoned anyone yet? While it could draw suspicion on himself, pardoning a mafia makes the game favorable for mafia. The fact that you suggest that draws suspicion to yourself =/ | ||
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On July 03 2008 14:28 RtS)Night[Mare wrote: this thread now falls pretty quickly t.t it is because all the active people have been fragged/stabbed/raped/pillaged/blown to bits/murdered/raped with a rake in the ass/had stilettos jabbed into them/decapitated/and/or other means of death, which happens to prevent us from talking =/ | ||
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On July 08 2008 05:25 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: I do think it is funny that dead mafia randombum goes "if anything mafia should win this!," while plexa, scorch and other dead townies go "no way, town should win this by a long shot!" Natural way of thinking that the team you are on should win. The town did a great job and has a huge lead right now, and in my humble opinion, i agree with Plexa, with all the work townies have put into this game we shouldn't be forced to hand over the game to mafia because other townies signed up and then just never posted in the game. Thats really sad, and I myself don't really even follow the game, Ive read every post to my death, but past that i just skim posts and i easily keep up with the game, so I haven't come close to investing a lot of time into the game, yet I still watch it. To know that it takes such little time to play this is kind of depressing when others who sign up don't play =/. ps. fusion i'm a dead vet thanks =) | ||
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