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On March 17 2024 12:39 Rels wrote:It's objectively the one for which I shouldn't be townreading him that hard But subjectively, I have a very hard time believeing the level of mindmeld we shared this game is fake. Everything is the same minus the Palmar read. If Jealous really is scum, it's like he's been playing against his wincon and make the game way harder for himself. You could arguee he could be playing lone wolf, but without the CopCake flip yesterday, he would have finished trapped in his own POE reads one way or the other before LYLO comes
This is a good point, but I tend to think well hidden mafia don't make the plays that make sense as mafia to make if you get me.
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On March 17 2024 12:50 Rels wrote:
Like, we agree on things that I've not said in the thread, so it cannot be a pure "I'm gonna copy this guy" play. I agreed with him telling you that one scum game is not a scum meta for instance, and I think he's the only one that said it
But is that just a holistic view of the game type thing or about something that matters in this specific instance.
People will hold their 'objectively correct' positions as both alignments.
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On March 17 2024 12:55 Rels wrote:I have been reading DMB past games, kind hard to get info from it without reading the whole game again, but this might be a town tell on DMB ... this game: Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 10:48 die_meatbaby wrote:On March 17 2024 10:46 Jealous wrote:
I'm actually curious what die "why are there two nks?!" meatbaby considers "so bad" about my play. This should be good. I know I am playing bad. Mafia game: Show nested quote +On December 18 2023 08:34 die_meatbaby wrote:On December 18 2023 07:52 Palmar wrote:
And I basically have the same feeling about dmb as you but I've written it off throughout the game as terrible town.
I would actually be somewhat relieved if she's mafia because then I don't have to call her bad in the postgame :D STOP CALLING ME BAD TOWN!! when we lynch you we will see that I am right
Agree.
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On March 17 2024 13:52 Vivax wrote:
What happened to locked in on Palmar/Jealous ?
Doesn‘t make sense based on your posts that you‘d be more sure on dmb.
He meant the opposite bro.
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Did you read palmars winter warfare game rels?
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On March 17 2024 14:06 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 13:57 DarthPunk wrote:
Did you read palmars winter warfare game rels? No. It's the same game dmb was scum in right. If yes I cohosted it but don't really remember it
He pursues his scum reads really actively in that game and spends this game giving excuses for why it is so different from his last one.
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On March 17 2024 12:30 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 12:28 DarthPunk wrote:On March 07 2024 00:33 Palmar wrote:
Yeah I didn't mind Jealous' list post.
Need to punch him to be more active tomorrow, but not really a huge deal for now. Good cop check probably if someone wants to go for it, because I don't know if I can count on him stepping up transparency and activity as the game goes on. A bit tinfoil. but night one with slam makes a lot of sense if they are going for a clear here on jealous.
On March 09 2024 07:21 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
I don’t think it’s really unluckiest town in the world that I got framed when the cop was 100% outing what targets he was gonna check lol Well yeah, because then we're unlucky our cop is a moron.
:D
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On March 15 2024 07:24 Palmar wrote:
I don't think jat is mafia anymore. I am locking in hard on the PoE list above and I feel more confident than I have felt before in this game.
On March 17 2024 07:16 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 07:15 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 17 2024 07:10 Palmar wrote:On March 16 2024 18:53 Palmar wrote:
I'm not caught up since the night, so my current view of the game has not shifted at all.
I think JAT did well under pressure, and despite my eternal annoyance with iamp I don't want to lynch him. Throw in my town circle of Vivax and DP and it becomes a 4 person PoE
MZ, Rels, Jealous, dmb
Out of those I have had a reason to townread dmb at some point in the game. And while I hate how Rels "feels" in the game I may have gone overboard scumreading him on that one post yesterday. By "feels" I mean that Rels is never, ever in the thick of things. He's always on the periphery and then wades in with some takes that everyone promptly ignores.
So I am currently looking at the following lynch pool
MZ and Jealous.
Iamp, being annoying as he usually is, complained about me not talking about MZ. That is actually a really good point. To me MZ has been the most invisible player in the game. At this point I've actually done fairly good dives on jat, Rels, Vivax, and smaller dives on dmb, jealous. I'm never reading DPs filter, and I'm not letting NK wifom change my mind that he's untouchable till lylo. Then MZ and Iamp himself are the people I've not really bothered to filter at all, but based on thread stuff I've assigned them their current rankings in my head.
I don't care about finding a "scum team". Today all I want is to murder one of the people who is actually scummy. And to me I think we have at least a 50% if not 100% chance of hitting mafia between those two. I already quoted this post earlier today and pointed out you're not really doing anything to get either Jealous or I lynched, you're just waiting around for the confirmed town folks to pick a direction and push. Jealous's saving grace rn is that I'm not confident you would put a scumbuddy next to me, giving vivax or DP a 50% chance on where to push, especially since Vivax is already all over Jealous. Yeah. Don’t know who I want to lynch, so not really pushing anything now.
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Pocketing strong townies:
The first thing that made me think I was being hard pocketed by palmar was the fact that his progression on his read on me entirely oriented around his own survival day one.
For example, Palmar does this thing that struck me as odd at the time, where despite having the most posts in the game by far on day 1, he says I am null and he has only read me in context of other players.
The thing that struck me at the time was that he was commenting on my alingment without reading my filter, but that is not really the issue here.
The issue is that his read on me was almost entirely turned around by the fact that I defended him from a lynch day one.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 22:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 22:16 justanothertownie wrote:On March 05 2024 22:14 Palmar wrote:
16/97 pages is just DP, jesus christ Yeah. Tempted to townread him just for that tbh. Even though I really don't like the way he went about the mayor stuff and the cake push was also meh. DP is a null, but I've only read his posts in the context of reading other players.I did like him calling out iamperfection for being wrong about how to deal with Vivax (I'm reading Vivax right now). But some of his other stuff that I've seen has been decidedly meh. Problem is, he has posted so goddamn much I don't even know what I should read of his postings. I guess I'll go find a list post or something. But he should maybe just be off the table today just because he has a long filter. On March 06 2024 06:54 Palmar wrote:
As for other people.
I stand by the sandroba townread, koshi is probably town too. I like Oats a lot more now for actually making sense. I also like JSL and Vivax.
I'd need VE to actually step up some again, same with Trfel. I had some reads on both but they're weak. DMB is also a weak maybe townread.
iamperfection is making sense, but the guy is smart enough to make sense when there is no pressure on him as either alignment.
DP is a little more wildcardy to me this game, I haven't always agreed with his takes.
TTS, JEalous, Hapa just need to be policied out.
I've not read or even noticed Rels at all which is a bad omen.
rayn is weird to me. I'm again getting the feeling that he's just posting a lot and saying very little, also I really, really don't like that he's not pressuring marv at all in the mason QT it seems.
Idk about CopCake, nothjin one way or the other.
MZ looks kinda bad, but it's very weak as I haven't really read him. On March 06 2024 07:16 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 06:58 DarthPunk wrote:
The main reason to lynch him was the fact he was being a lazy bastard and not scumhunting or doing anything at all when ostensibly day one is supposed to be his best day.
So, he was a clear lynch going to bed last night my time.
Now that I have started to catch up again, he has just been scumhunting and trying to solve the game as much as he can before he dies.
This is generally the number one way that people are town when they are going to be lynched, just get as much info in the thread.
I think his tone has looked good since he started trying, particularly the joy that he had when he got the same scumread on you with sandro at the same time.
Now you could say that he is faking this level of engagement as mafia, but I happen to have first hand experience that palmar is absolutely terrible and lazy as mafia and I don't buy it.
I think as mafia he would have not coasted so obviously only to then scum hunt and fake mindmelds later on, probably he would just fakeclaim something and roll the dice that way.
Anyway I am not lynching 5 page palmar who is scumhunting and mindmelding with sandro day one.
I just need to figure out who we are lynching instead.
Like, why not you for example, in the obs you were really smart and here you are thoroughly underwhelming.
Btw, yes I know I'm biased because I'm being defended. But this is EXTREMELY good reasoning for me being town. The bolded stuff, that is. I don't agree with his other points. I can do well as scum and I would probably never fakeclaim anything as mafia on day 1. I'm mostly emphasizing this because it makes DP look really, really good. He's not just correct about my alignment, he is correct for (mostly) the right reasons. On March 06 2024 07:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 07:30 justanothertownie wrote:
DP is probably town btw. just very misguided. Speak politely to your betters. On March 06 2024 19:10 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 19:07 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 19:02 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 13:57 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 13:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 06 2024 13:42 CopCake wrote:
Mafia
DP
Iamp
Vivax
this is so bad it deserves to be lynched. Why? Explain me why is Darth town? Because he did a catastrophe yesterday. Did you read DPs analysis of why I am town? I may be hard pocketed but I did point out that he is right for the right reasons. Mafia can do that. You should know this. Mafia can be right, but because they don't have to actually think to reach the right conclusion they're rarely right for the right reasons. DP is very high on my town list. Some of the stuff I like him for isn't even alignment indicative (and some is). He thinks reasonably about the game and is very active. I don't think going after him is a viable avenue.Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
This also happened with marv:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 06:46 Palmar wrote:Marv is very, very, very likely to be mafia. I already didn't love his stance on the Vivax thing and his tone in the thread. Then this line of thinking is really what's sealing the deal. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 00:13 marvellosity wrote:On March 06 2024 00:12 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:09 iamperfection wrote:On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar? No idea. Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game. Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game. Unless.... You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread. In your mind this is town marv coming after you? I don't know. I want marv to be happier, more excited, and maybe a little friendlier. But I don't really think I can call him mafia for being lazy and boring. He does after all have his little mason society to retreat to. Mostly, I kinda just don't care at the moment. Marv has integrity and respect for the game. He is, usually, to be counted on to continue playing past day 1, and he is good enough that he can be forced to participate usefully or die. Even if I'm kinda suspicious, or at least uncomfortable, about his alignment at the moment, it's not a productive venue for today. Also, his reaction to me actually playing the game is going to be very interesting. Mafia. Should be calling me bad. Isn’t. Mafia. This isn't a valid complaint. I'm not gonna call marv bad when he votes for me. In fact, I kinda understand why he voted for me early on. I had done very little as I was busy yesterday. Today I produced a long filter with all kinds of reads and explanations of them and that did absolutely nothing to budge his opinion on me. I don't really know what sandroba thinks of me but he did come back and kinda changed his mind, at least moved off the scumread a little bit. But marv is dug in. He is not this certain about my alignment if he's town. There should be some doubt in him. I actually think Oats looks a lot better for this observation Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 01:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
I’m trying to wrap my head around this Palmar push by marv and what it means for marvs alignment.
I think Palmar has been way more townie this last like 5 pages and that only seems to solidify marvs read Like this is what I expect people to do who don't just want a kill. I don't think marv is bad, I just think he's scum. And if ANYONE buys this logic with me dead, that person is an infinite moron. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 00:10 marvellosity wrote:On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar? No idea. Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game. Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game. Unless.... You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread. You’re fairly close. And those things remain consistent despite your time allowances. And they’re absent here. So you’re mafia. And - i know you know I don’t push for you like this as mafia. As if you are town  I am putting myself in an incredibly difficult spot when the person I know best flips town. It’s a terrible play. The only logical explanation is I am town and I think you are mafia.
You know this. If you were town you’d be much more actively calling me stupid and all those normal things. But you’re not. This is not true. On March 06 2024 07:18 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 07:15 Koshi wrote:On March 06 2024 07:13 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 07:08 Koshi wrote:
For the people thinking this was a good post by Palmar.
why marv should not be called mafia:
1) marv has a 7 page filter and is actually playing. That alone is enough to not call him mafia D1.
2) Palmar admits the first vote is legit on him. So that means marv came out of hiding to post a legit vote that would and could mean he had to play hard for the rest of the game if town!Palmar brought his A game. It is less likely Mafia!marv would do that because he cba. Town!marv would come out because he thinks it is the best thing to do for town. So this also leans towards a town!marv. This alone would be a good reason not to vote marv D1.
3) marv being wrong on Palmar means fuck all for his alignment. Last game, with Palmar and marv, they both wrongly tunneled Tfrel and Sandroba for 3 days straight, and townread mebaby. They were wrong 3 times, for 3 days. Both didn't catch scum rayn for those 3 days. Maybe I am slightly exaggerating but not too much. So don't think marv is flawless and it makes him mafia.
Why Palmar is mafia:
4) His reads are not good enough. The Oats read; which was at that time his top 1 mafia, was opportunistic and badly thought out. His marv read is just OMGUS and trying to discredit the person who leads his wagon.
5) He can play as a town leader, so him playing like a weasel this game points towards mafia.
6) Doing better is not hard when you start at the bottom of bottoms. It's a horrible point people are making. (calling out DP). He is at his best in this game still doing worse than he did in the previous game.
Kill Palmar. Koshi if Palmar is town, after last game you realise he SHOULD be scum reading marv because marv prides himself on being the palmar whisperer and saving him from being mislynched etc. so in this game, assuming palmar is town and marv seems to just be coasting to a palmar lynch here, town!palmar is always going to read marv as mafia. Why now? Why not 2-3 hours ago Because I have infinite faith in marv coming around. 2-3 hours ago I didn't actually think I was going to be killed. I NEED to pre-empt the "well he was playing like mafia" bullshit and "I would never call him mafia as scum because it's risky cause people think I'm the Palmar oracle" that he has already posted in the thread. If I do get lynched this needs to be in the thread. That's why I'm pointing it out now. On March 06 2024 08:39 Palmar wrote:
Btw marv backing off means I retract the 100% scum when I flip town thing. I saw the mafia greedily considering a NK on me to make marv look bad and I successfully protected town from their machinations.
Doesn't make marv town, just not lock scum.
Weird marv progression by palmar, entirely tied to his survival and marvs stance on him. Marv and Palmar have a history as well, so all the expectations that palmar has on marv for being correct the same should work the other way. On March 07 2024 00:17 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 22:37 sandroba wrote:
I'm liking palmar more and more. His night posts read really genuine to me, maybe I'm a fool but I'm prob not going after palmar d2.
Marv had some paranoind behavior in the qt which has fully convinced me he is town.
I think these are the big question marks for people and I think they are both town.
By process of elimination here is what I'm at:
Likely mafia: ve + rels - both didn't care one bit about the lynch imo
Depending on TTS being mafia or town it leave us 2/3 mafia in this pile:
mz, jsl, jat, cop, dmb, slam
This is where I'm at. You know, if sandro says marv is town, I'll happily accept that and hold on to further shadethrowing in that direction.Makes the game a lot easier for me if I just assume the two of you are town and work from there.
Palmar calls marv mafia out of the blue because marv is trying to lynch palmar, marv stops trying to lynch palmar then palmar happily flips his read citing Sandro.
I find this highly problematic for Town!Palmar, he is townreading and pocketing strong players when they call him town, and scum reading them when they call him mafia.
If he was actually town I would expect him to be more agentic in his reads and the prosecution of a scum hunting agenda.
Which brings me to my second set of problems.
Interactions with flipped mafia:
Palmar 'scumreads' TTS day one for basically his first set of posts, but also undermines the read here:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 23:05 Palmar wrote:
Dumbest scumread ever is that TTS just casually assumed he'd be alive by day 4 or something.
Also even talking about a random voting stage like we're some plebeian third world mafia site is pretty scummy.
But he's done nothing so there's no read. Good policy lynch though.
Calls for his PLynch here:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 06:54 Palmar wrote:
As for other people.
I stand by the sandroba townread, koshi is probably town too. I like Oats a lot more now for actually making sense. I also like JSL and Vivax.
I'd need VE to actually step up some again, same with Trfel. I had some reads on both but they're weak. DMB is also a weak maybe townread.
iamperfection is making sense, but the guy is smart enough to make sense when there is no pressure on him as either alignment.
DP is a little more wildcardy to me this game, I haven't always agreed with his takes.
TTS, JEalous, Hapa just need to be policied out.
I've not read or even noticed Rels at all which is a bad omen.
rayn is weird to me. I'm again getting the feeling that he's just posting a lot and saying very little, also I really, really don't like that he's not pressuring marv at all in the mason QT it seems.
Idk about CopCake, nothjin one way or the other.
MZ looks kinda bad, but it's very weak as I haven't really read him.
Again calls for a lynch buried in other townies here:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 08:43 Palmar wrote:
This is just random and for post-game purposes.
We actually have like 4 objectively correct lynches (that is correct from a "how to play mafia" perspective).
1) Vivax - All day 1 claimers should be policy lynched without question
2) TTS - Complete inactivity
3) Hapa - replacement and demotivation is something that happens much more often as mafia
4) Trfel - He literally is voting without having any clue why
But for various reasons I'm not really pushing any of those lynches. Guess I'm bad. On March 07 2024 01:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 01:16 iamperfection wrote:On March 07 2024 01:14 Palmar wrote:On March 07 2024 01:13 iamperfection wrote:On March 07 2024 01:12 Palmar wrote:On March 07 2024 01:12 iamperfection wrote:On March 06 2024 08:55 Palmar wrote:
I'm finalizing here.
I like a bunch of mafia in:
rayn
jat
rels
mz
tts
then there's gonna be some mafia in the people who should be killed on policy
vivax
trfel
hapa
then there's the people that need constant monitoring and need to improve
iamp
marv
jealous
copcake
slam
ve
and finally we have the people I have somewhere from mild to good reasons to think are town
sandro
oats
dp
dmb
jls
koshi
None of the lists are in any particular order
I don't really think Trfel will flip mafia. It's just a "I believe in people" read that he wouldn't fuck off like that as mafia with the whole "If I get lynched I get lynched" thing. But it's an objectively good lynch so I'm not going to fight it all that hard. Leaving my vote on jat. I've been burned before by placing too much faith in people not doing crazy things as mafia so it's whatever. Like looking at this post you have trfel as a policy lynch but in the bottom it isn't. yeah, makes perfect sense right? No lol. Looks like your just making up shit to me. Did you notice that I also called Vivax town! How cool is that? Why didn't you have tts as policy btw Because he and Trfel are different. I liked Trfel's posts, but just dropping the game and fucking off is a lynchable offense. I didn't like TTSs posts. Note that I haven't revisited TTS at all this night, so that list may be out of date, although I can't remember him posting. A policy lynch is a lynch suggestion that is independent of perceived alignment, but rather based on a policy of expected town behavior. TTS could fit into both categories (policy lynch a lurker and lynching him for bad posting) but obviously when combined he goes into the scum pool. This is why I'm joking around with you seeing a contradiction in saying Trfel is a policy lynch candidate (or really, a vig target candidate) and then saying I actually think his posts look townie. If you think that's a problem, then you just don't know what a policy lynch is.
This post is way weird and over the top. He goes in at length to talk about why TTS is mafia and not a policy lynch, but has not pushed him as a viable candidate at all.
It's purely distancing, he wants to get credit for calling TTS mafia, but he doesn't actually want to pursue the 'read'
+ Show Spoiler +On March 16 2024 19:12 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2024 18:56 DarthPunk wrote:
Can I ask you why you never really pursued your reads on Oats and TTS on day one?
TTS was never a "read" per se. I noticed he said something like "I'm not going to do anything till day 4" which to me was weird because he expected to be alive by then. But I also recognized it was a very minor thing. He did post though, and I remember someone asking about the difference between hapa and TTS in my views, and that is exactly that. Hapa just straight up left. TTS made some bad posts and left. Trfel made some decent posts and left. I considered them all vigi targets/possible policy lynches on day 1/night 1, but obviously each situation is different. I can't claim I "caught" TTS, he was just mafia by measurable heuristics.
This response last night should have pinged me more, basically he is saying that someone was not a scum read (untrue by his own words) and was just mafia by heuristics (how is this different to a scum read?)
and therefore didn't need to pursue the read he had on mafia day one?
Thats just fucking mafia gymnastics right there.
Again with oats:
Early distancing:
+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 06:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 06:19 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 05 2024 06:18 Palmar wrote:
I read like 2 posts of Oats and he's scummy Then he voted for me and I'm blasting town like everywhere PPPSWSSHHHHHH I agree with you being town. I'm like 2 pages into the game so all my reads are just random feelings right now but I like you, Vivax, iamp and DP. I don't like Oats. On March 05 2024 09:54 Palmar wrote:
Oats scummy read is for announcing he wants to be mayor but then I skimmed a few more points and he didn’t really push the idea he should be. On March 05 2024 19:41 Palmar wrote:So I'm going to talk about a few people now. Consider this just rambling thoughts about the thread that I'm absolutely not going to read in full. Probably gonna do this in a few parts so my reads might evolve from now until I've done the last people I want to talk about. OatsmasterBoth initially, and currently, the reason he's my tentative #1 lynch target is based on exactly one thing, this: Go find that post in his filter, then read the following maybe... 20 posts? I don't think there is a single one of them where he is actually pushing to get himself elected as mayor. Ironically he scolded someone else for doing that same thing. Show nested quote +On March 04 2024 12:39 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:25 DarthPunk wrote:On March 04 2024 12:23 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:21 DarthPunk wrote:
Mayor will sort itself out, probably be marv at the end of the day if he is town. Hi again, not a big fan of you not pushing to be mayor, what gives? I don't think pushing for it actually does anything. You don’t seem to even want to be mayor There really isn't much else to it. The case is simply "He said he wanted to be mayor but then none of his posting seems to point towards him actually wanting to be mayor". It's far from lock scum case, it's mostly just a bad play regardless of alignment, but it's... maybe easier to explain as an attempt to do something bold as mafia. I'm gonna read more before I plant a vote or anything.
Look how fast and easily he turns around on his scumread on oats
+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 19:47 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 19:45 Koshi wrote:
Glad to see Palmar his Oats read be so lackluster. Makes it less easier to vote him out. [red] I've lynched Oats for being bad town before. I'm perfectly willing to listen to ideas for other people to kill.
Palmar never wanted to lynch oats, even when he calls out oats for the exact and only reason he can be called out that early. A player of palmar's calibre, confidence and hubris does not just bend over like this unless he WANTS TO.
Oats is basically ignored again BTW until the red check
+ Show Spoiler +On March 07 2024 17:05 Palmar wrote:
Like 90% mafia is basically the best shot we can get. I’m sorry Oats but not much to do about it. If you’re town just get to work and leave a strong legacy.
Look at this subtle suggestion on a VE wagon btw, I say here that I am glad I don't have to lynch VE when there is oats on the table and Palmar says:
On March 07 2024 17:14 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 17:12 DarthPunk wrote:
In a way I’m happy oats got read checked cause now I don’t have to lynch ve today. Don’t think killing VE would’ve been all that hard. It’s a hobby of mine. Easy to convince me to take part.
He is basically soft suggesting a swap onto VE here, to me who is KNOWN to fuck around with wagons at the deadline.
but then we are back to the correct play that Palmar HAS to go with or claim mafia. Stay the course on Oats.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
On March 09 2024 07:11 Palmar wrote:
Essentially it comes down to:
I really need to filter dive CopCake, DMB, MZ, Rels and JSL because there's like 3 mafia in there.
One is probably either Oats or Slam, unless we're just the unluckiest town in the world.
Also if Slam and Vivax are genuinely town and both claimed on day 1, we deserve to lose.
There's gonna be a hidden mafia there somewhere. On March 09 2024 07:26 Palmar wrote:
But yeah, I simply cannot worry about the worst case scenario (Framer) because if you lose to a successful frame there really isn't much to be done.
All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great
Oats is mafia: great
Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable
Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed
And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case.
Subtly hinting at a swap off, directly contradicting all his 'stay the course' posts.
+ Show Spoiler +On March 09 2024 07:32 Palmar wrote:
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.
I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think. On March 09 2024 07:50 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread. To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well On March 09 2024 07:54 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 11:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mafia inside Marv/Oats/Jake/Cake and mix in a couple of hiding lurkers. Dealers choice. I think the game ends in town victory, even if you lot lynch me tomorrow.
I'm sorry I couldn't give this game the time it deserves, my weekend starts tomorrow so I'll at least fight my lynch if I live the night.
Good luck urybody.
You know after all that bullshit on staying the course, palmar never votes for oats.
On March 09 2024 07:55 Palmar wrote:
##Vote: VisceraEyes
This should have been a death sentence right here. I will admit I was wrong on Palmar, I was pocketed by him and defended him through 2 lynch attempts.
but this here is blatant mafia play for a player of the caliber of palmar, he does know better.
On March 16 2024 19:12 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2024 18:56 DarthPunk wrote:
Can I ask you why you never really pursued your reads on Oats and TTS on day one?
Regarding Oats, and I know this isn't going to sound great for me. I didn't do great on the scumhunting part in the last game I played. It's been like 4 years since I played mafia, and I lynched HF despite the fact I should've known better, and it took me a long time to find both dmb and rayn. I essentially had to rely on marv bailing me out of a lynch, and then on cooperation with sandroba that I should've seen as town much earlier to finish the game. Yes, I got around to voting only mafia for the last few days, but it took me longer than expected. [red] So, this game, and this is still the case, and I really need a smaller game to clear my head a bit, my confidence has been shaken a little bit. Just look at the lack of "fuck you, you're mafia" I've done this game. I'm genuinely not sure on anything.
For someone who if town, is not confident in his reads enough to pursue them in any fashion whatsoever, he is confident enough to NOT LYNCH A RED CHECK ON DAY 2.
Just mafia.
Now we get to META
Basically my analysis of palmars play in this game vs his last game is town is as follows:
This game:
1.) not agentic in pursuing mafia reads
2.) self awareness of stylistic differences and explaining them away.
3.) referencing a lack of confidence to excuse scummy things away.
Last game:
1.) very confident and forceful in scumhunting
2.) leads wagon on vivax and pushes hard for his lynch choices.
3.)extreme levels of confidence and arrogance.
From Town!palmars own analysis last game
+ Show Spoiler +On December 12 2023 18:15 Palmar wrote:
Some other random thoughts.
HF slides a little towards scummy
Still think DMB is more likely to be town
There is a world where we need to attack Koshi and HF just to get them to do something.
Shooting Chez is a good idea if we have a vigilante. He's never going to reveal his alignment through analysis. Checking into the less useful good players (marv, rayn, HF)
Another thing, I think this list is important. From most to least influential day 1 town play (disregarding some of the bits I haven't caught up on from last night):
Palmar
DP
Trfel
Marv
Koshi
DMB
Rayn
Sandroba
HF
Slam
Chezinu
Aside from the trolls (bottom 2) I think it's somewhat important to think about how much people actually tried to get shit done on day 1. This is not a "bottom mafia, top town" list, but rather an indicator on how much I think people tried to get their vision of the game done in the game on day 1. Mafia likes to not be the initiating factor in town, but rather just follow along.
On December 13 2023 06:59 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2023 05:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why is Palmar top 1 contributor in his list when Palmar just lead a mislynch and DP top 2 was probably on mafia sandroba? Isn't that clear? Obviously the primary contributor to the day is the person who got his choice of lynch killed. I didn't say it was necessarily a positive contribution. The list is based on how hard and successfully people pushed their ideas in the threadYou know mafia likes to sheep more than they like to lead. It's an important list, but only as extra evidence. No one got more shit done on day 1 than me. Doesn't really matter if I'm right or wrong.
I will allow you to call me bad for keeping him alive thus far, but I am redeeming myself in the end, it is impossible he is not mafia in this spot.
He will certainly have a very confident and persuasive defense. but to paraphrase the great man himself: Judge him on the things that he did or failed to do this game.
In the words of our fallen town heroes:
On March 15 2024 06:34 Koshi wrote:
I will never trust Palmar this game.
On March 07 2024 11:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:Lynch Palmar, + Show Spoiler +After D3 there is noone left to do that anymore and people AGAIN let them slide bewcause noone listen to dead people.
|
All the previous posts were interesting tidbits while analyzing filters, but also worth thinking about.
I
|
im around to chat and to convince you to vote with me.
Sorry vivax 
|
On March 16 2024 19:37 Palmar wrote:I hate reading MZ so much. I'm so certain he has to be mafia for the game to make sense. And my feeling throughout the game, and even very often in his posting he sounds like passive mafia. He's never in the thick of things. He even did the same dumbass "I'll be mayor" thing that Oats did. But he's just such a genuinely likable person that I don't want to call him scum, and it makes it hard. I'm just a short bit into his filter and I need to head out now. I am going to be far less available than yesterday, so you know, if you wanna take a shot at me, your shot is today boys
I find this sentence to be about preempting anyone from pressuring him this phase by making it seem opportunistic.
Bad.
|
On March 17 2024 15:45 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 15:09 DarthPunk wrote:Pocketing strong townies: The first thing that made me think I was being hard pocketed by palmar was the fact that his progression on his read on me entirely oriented around his own survival day one. For example, Palmar does this thing that struck me as odd at the time, where despite having the most posts in the game by far on day 1, he says I am null and he has only read me in context of other players. The thing that struck me at the time was that he was commenting on my alingment without reading my filter, but that is not really the issue here. The issue is that his read on me was almost entirely turned around by the fact that I defended him from a lynch day one. + Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 22:25 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 22:16 justanothertownie wrote:On March 05 2024 22:14 Palmar wrote:
16/97 pages is just DP, jesus christ Yeah. Tempted to townread him just for that tbh. Even though I really don't like the way he went about the mayor stuff and the cake push was also meh. DP is a null, but I've only read his posts in the context of reading other players.I did like him calling out iamperfection for being wrong about how to deal with Vivax (I'm reading Vivax right now). But some of his other stuff that I've seen has been decidedly meh. Problem is, he has posted so goddamn much I don't even know what I should read of his postings. I guess I'll go find a list post or something. But he should maybe just be off the table today just because he has a long filter. On March 06 2024 06:54 Palmar wrote:
As for other people.
I stand by the sandroba townread, koshi is probably town too. I like Oats a lot more now for actually making sense. I also like JSL and Vivax.
I'd need VE to actually step up some again, same with Trfel. I had some reads on both but they're weak. DMB is also a weak maybe townread.
iamperfection is making sense, but the guy is smart enough to make sense when there is no pressure on him as either alignment.
DP is a little more wildcardy to me this game, I haven't always agreed with his takes.
TTS, JEalous, Hapa just need to be policied out.
I've not read or even noticed Rels at all which is a bad omen.
rayn is weird to me. I'm again getting the feeling that he's just posting a lot and saying very little, also I really, really don't like that he's not pressuring marv at all in the mason QT it seems.
Idk about CopCake, nothjin one way or the other.
MZ looks kinda bad, but it's very weak as I haven't really read him. On March 06 2024 07:16 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 06:58 DarthPunk wrote:
The main reason to lynch him was the fact he was being a lazy bastard and not scumhunting or doing anything at all when ostensibly day one is supposed to be his best day.
So, he was a clear lynch going to bed last night my time.
Now that I have started to catch up again, he has just been scumhunting and trying to solve the game as much as he can before he dies.
This is generally the number one way that people are town when they are going to be lynched, just get as much info in the thread.
I think his tone has looked good since he started trying, particularly the joy that he had when he got the same scumread on you with sandro at the same time.
Now you could say that he is faking this level of engagement as mafia, but I happen to have first hand experience that palmar is absolutely terrible and lazy as mafia and I don't buy it.
I think as mafia he would have not coasted so obviously only to then scum hunt and fake mindmelds later on, probably he would just fakeclaim something and roll the dice that way.
Anyway I am not lynching 5 page palmar who is scumhunting and mindmelding with sandro day one.
I just need to figure out who we are lynching instead.
Like, why not you for example, in the obs you were really smart and here you are thoroughly underwhelming.
Btw, yes I know I'm biased because I'm being defended. But this is EXTREMELY good reasoning for me being town. The bolded stuff, that is. I don't agree with his other points. I can do well as scum and I would probably never fakeclaim anything as mafia on day 1. I'm mostly emphasizing this because it makes DP look really, really good. He's not just correct about my alignment, he is correct for (mostly) the right reasons. On March 06 2024 07:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 07:30 justanothertownie wrote:
DP is probably town btw. just very misguided. Speak politely to your betters. On March 06 2024 19:10 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 19:07 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 19:02 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 13:57 CopCake wrote:On March 06 2024 13:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 06 2024 13:42 CopCake wrote:
Mafia
DP
Iamp
Vivax
this is so bad it deserves to be lynched. Why? Explain me why is Darth town? Because he did a catastrophe yesterday. Did you read DPs analysis of why I am town? I may be hard pocketed but I did point out that he is right for the right reasons. Mafia can do that. You should know this. Mafia can be right, but because they don't have to actually think to reach the right conclusion they're rarely right for the right reasons. DP is very high on my town list. Some of the stuff I like him for isn't even alignment indicative (and some is). He thinks reasonably about the game and is very active. I don't think going after him is a viable avenue.Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
So like I'm going to try to sort of organize the game in my head, and I'm going to do it out loud, so you can watch me think. It's a fascinating display.
We probably have about 5 mafia in this game. It could be 4, but then they have very strong roles. Normal balance would suggest 5.
This means I need to start sort of filtering down the people I want to think about.
First up, the people I don't really want to lynch or even consider at all:
DarthPunk for huge filter and repeatedly liking his takes on things.
Vivax because that's the gamble we made when we didn't policy lynch him.
Then there's the weaker town reads that are definitely going to contain some mafia:
Koshi was very good early day 1, but I feel like his impact has been reduced. Still not enough to start calling him mafia
marvellosity - I kinda think he's maybe town, he did come around on me correctly, and I kinda trust sandro's read. So for what it's worth, he goes into the "worry later" pile.
Then there's the people who will be resolved by today
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
Actually as I write this I realize I have way too few townread, which means I really, really need to get work done. For one reason or another I don't trust any of the people below.
Jealous - lack of investigation from me, little posting
Meapak_Ziphh - lack of investigation from me, I'm masoned with the dude but I'm a terrible mason partner because I think they're stupid. That's mostly on me. I also recall some of his posting being a little meek
justanothertownie - Some really atrocious takes throughout the game. Bullshit associative reads and voting without any kind of analysis.
die_meatbaby - lack of investigation from me. I remember having a different feel from last game, but she still gets stuck on dumb shit.
CopCake - I kinda liked rayn's point during the night. Also she should really think I'm town after our discussion in the night.
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.
Iamperfection - One particularly terrible take during the night, but maybe he just doesn't know what a policy lynch is. I didn't follow up enough to understand if it was malicious or just kinda stupid.
ToTheStars - lurker
VisceraEyes - Fell off cliff. Where VE?
Rels - Terrible case on me on day 1 that reeked of mafia trying to "contribute". Super clear he wasn't caught up on the game and lacked opinionsþ
This also happened with marv: + Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 06:46 Palmar wrote:Marv is very, very, very likely to be mafia. I already didn't love his stance on the Vivax thing and his tone in the thread. Then this line of thinking is really what's sealing the deal. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 00:13 marvellosity wrote:On March 06 2024 00:12 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:09 iamperfection wrote:On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar? No idea. Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game. Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game. Unless.... You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread. In your mind this is town marv coming after you? I don't know. I want marv to be happier, more excited, and maybe a little friendlier. But I don't really think I can call him mafia for being lazy and boring. He does after all have his little mason society to retreat to. Mostly, I kinda just don't care at the moment. Marv has integrity and respect for the game. He is, usually, to be counted on to continue playing past day 1, and he is good enough that he can be forced to participate usefully or die. Even if I'm kinda suspicious, or at least uncomfortable, about his alignment at the moment, it's not a productive venue for today. Also, his reaction to me actually playing the game is going to be very interesting. Mafia. Should be calling me bad. Isn’t. Mafia. This isn't a valid complaint. I'm not gonna call marv bad when he votes for me. In fact, I kinda understand why he voted for me early on. I had done very little as I was busy yesterday. Today I produced a long filter with all kinds of reads and explanations of them and that did absolutely nothing to budge his opinion on me. I don't really know what sandroba thinks of me but he did come back and kinda changed his mind, at least moved off the scumread a little bit. But marv is dug in. He is not this certain about my alignment if he's town. There should be some doubt in him. I actually think Oats looks a lot better for this observation Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 01:21 Oatsmaster wrote:
I’m trying to wrap my head around this Palmar push by marv and what it means for marvs alignment.
I think Palmar has been way more townie this last like 5 pages and that only seems to solidify marvs read Like this is what I expect people to do who don't just want a kill. I don't think marv is bad, I just think he's scum. And if ANYONE buys this logic with me dead, that person is an infinite moron. Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 00:10 marvellosity wrote:On March 06 2024 00:07 Palmar wrote:On March 06 2024 00:00 marvellosity wrote:
Do you know why I normally tr read you Palmar? No idea. Or well, I do have a guess that it's largely a tone read coupled with some parameters on how I think about the game. Honestly, doesn't really matter to me. But please do explain because I'm going to enjoy watching your backtrack if I flip before you this game. Unless.... You just wanna be my friend and give me a townread. You’re fairly close. And those things remain consistent despite your time allowances. And they’re absent here. So you’re mafia. And - i know you know I don’t push for you like this as mafia. As if you are town I am putting myself in an incredibly difficult spot when the person I know best flips town. It’s a terrible play. The only logical explanation is I am town and I think you are mafia.
You know this. If you were town you’d be much more actively calling me stupid and all those normal things. But you’re not. This is not true. On March 06 2024 07:18 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 07:15 Koshi wrote:On March 06 2024 07:13 DarthPunk wrote:On March 06 2024 07:08 Koshi wrote:
For the people thinking this was a good post by Palmar.
why marv should not be called mafia:
1) marv has a 7 page filter and is actually playing. That alone is enough to not call him mafia D1.
2) Palmar admits the first vote is legit on him. So that means marv came out of hiding to post a legit vote that would and could mean he had to play hard for the rest of the game if town!Palmar brought his A game. It is less likely Mafia!marv would do that because he cba. Town!marv would come out because he thinks it is the best thing to do for town. So this also leans towards a town!marv. This alone would be a good reason not to vote marv D1.
3) marv being wrong on Palmar means fuck all for his alignment. Last game, with Palmar and marv, they both wrongly tunneled Tfrel and Sandroba for 3 days straight, and townread mebaby. They were wrong 3 times, for 3 days. Both didn't catch scum rayn for those 3 days. Maybe I am slightly exaggerating but not too much. So don't think marv is flawless and it makes him mafia.
Why Palmar is mafia:
4) His reads are not good enough. The Oats read; which was at that time his top 1 mafia, was opportunistic and badly thought out. His marv read is just OMGUS and trying to discredit the person who leads his wagon.
5) He can play as a town leader, so him playing like a weasel this game points towards mafia.
6) Doing better is not hard when you start at the bottom of bottoms. It's a horrible point people are making. (calling out DP). He is at his best in this game still doing worse than he did in the previous game.
Kill Palmar. Koshi if Palmar is town, after last game you realise he SHOULD be scum reading marv because marv prides himself on being the palmar whisperer and saving him from being mislynched etc. so in this game, assuming palmar is town and marv seems to just be coasting to a palmar lynch here, town!palmar is always going to read marv as mafia. Why now? Why not 2-3 hours ago Because I have infinite faith in marv coming around. 2-3 hours ago I didn't actually think I was going to be killed. I NEED to pre-empt the "well he was playing like mafia" bullshit and "I would never call him mafia as scum because it's risky cause people think I'm the Palmar oracle" that he has already posted in the thread. If I do get lynched this needs to be in the thread. That's why I'm pointing it out now. On March 06 2024 08:39 Palmar wrote:
Btw marv backing off means I retract the 100% scum when I flip town thing. I saw the mafia greedily considering a NK on me to make marv look bad and I successfully protected town from their machinations.
Doesn't make marv town, just not lock scum.
Weird marv progression by palmar, entirely tied to his survival and marvs stance on him. Marv and Palmar have a history as well, so all the expectations that palmar has on marv for being correct the same should work the other way. On March 07 2024 00:17 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2024 22:37 sandroba wrote:
I'm liking palmar more and more. His night posts read really genuine to me, maybe I'm a fool but I'm prob not going after palmar d2.
Marv had some paranoind behavior in the qt which has fully convinced me he is town.
I think these are the big question marks for people and I think they are both town.
By process of elimination here is what I'm at:
Likely mafia: ve + rels - both didn't care one bit about the lynch imo
Depending on TTS being mafia or town it leave us 2/3 mafia in this pile:
mz, jsl, jat, cop, dmb, slam
This is where I'm at. You know, if sandro says marv is town, I'll happily accept that and hold on to further shadethrowing in that direction.Makes the game a lot easier for me if I just assume the two of you are town and work from there. Palmar calls marv mafia out of the blue because marv is trying to lynch palmar, marv stops trying to lynch palmar then palmar happily flips his read citing Sandro. I find this highly problematic for Town!Palmar, he is townreading and pocketing strong players when they call him town, and scum reading them when they call him mafia. If he was actually town I would expect him to be more agentic in his reads and the prosecution of a scum hunting agenda. Which brings me to my second set of problems. Interactions with flipped mafia:Palmar 'scumreads' TTS day one for basically his first set of posts, but also undermines the read here: + Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 23:05 Palmar wrote:
Dumbest scumread ever is that TTS just casually assumed he'd be alive by day 4 or something.
Also even talking about a random voting stage like we're some plebeian third world mafia site is pretty scummy.
But he's done nothing so there's no read. Good policy lynch though. Calls for his PLynch here: + Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 06:54 Palmar wrote:
As for other people.
I stand by the sandroba townread, koshi is probably town too. I like Oats a lot more now for actually making sense. I also like JSL and Vivax.
I'd need VE to actually step up some again, same with Trfel. I had some reads on both but they're weak. DMB is also a weak maybe townread.
iamperfection is making sense, but the guy is smart enough to make sense when there is no pressure on him as either alignment.
DP is a little more wildcardy to me this game, I haven't always agreed with his takes.
TTS, JEalous, Hapa just need to be policied out.
I've not read or even noticed Rels at all which is a bad omen.
rayn is weird to me. I'm again getting the feeling that he's just posting a lot and saying very little, also I really, really don't like that he's not pressuring marv at all in the mason QT it seems.
Idk about CopCake, nothjin one way or the other.
MZ looks kinda bad, but it's very weak as I haven't really read him. Again calls for a lynch buried in other townies here: + Show Spoiler +On March 06 2024 08:43 Palmar wrote:
This is just random and for post-game purposes.
We actually have like 4 objectively correct lynches (that is correct from a "how to play mafia" perspective).
1) Vivax - All day 1 claimers should be policy lynched without question
2) TTS - Complete inactivity
3) Hapa - replacement and demotivation is something that happens much more often as mafia
4) Trfel - He literally is voting without having any clue why
But for various reasons I'm not really pushing any of those lynches. Guess I'm bad. On March 07 2024 01:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 01:16 iamperfection wrote:On March 07 2024 01:14 Palmar wrote:On March 07 2024 01:13 iamperfection wrote:On March 07 2024 01:12 Palmar wrote:On March 07 2024 01:12 iamperfection wrote:On March 06 2024 08:55 Palmar wrote:
I'm finalizing here.
I like a bunch of mafia in:
rayn
jat
rels
mz
tts
then there's gonna be some mafia in the people who should be killed on policy
vivax
trfel
hapa
then there's the people that need constant monitoring and need to improve
iamp
marv
jealous
copcake
slam
ve
and finally we have the people I have somewhere from mild to good reasons to think are town
sandro
oats
dp
dmb
jls
koshi
None of the lists are in any particular order
I don't really think Trfel will flip mafia. It's just a "I believe in people" read that he wouldn't fuck off like that as mafia with the whole "If I get lynched I get lynched" thing. But it's an objectively good lynch so I'm not going to fight it all that hard. Leaving my vote on jat. I've been burned before by placing too much faith in people not doing crazy things as mafia so it's whatever. Like looking at this post you have trfel as a policy lynch but in the bottom it isn't. yeah, makes perfect sense right? No lol. Looks like your just making up shit to me. Did you notice that I also called Vivax town! How cool is that? Why didn't you have tts as policy btw Because he and Trfel are different. I liked Trfel's posts, but just dropping the game and fucking off is a lynchable offense. I didn't like TTSs posts. Note that I haven't revisited TTS at all this night, so that list may be out of date, although I can't remember him posting. A policy lynch is a lynch suggestion that is independent of perceived alignment, but rather based on a policy of expected town behavior. TTS could fit into both categories (policy lynch a lurker and lynching him for bad posting) but obviously when combined he goes into the scum pool. This is why I'm joking around with you seeing a contradiction in saying Trfel is a policy lynch candidate (or really, a vig target candidate) and then saying I actually think his posts look townie. If you think that's a problem, then you just don't know what a policy lynch is. This post is way weird and over the top. He goes in at length to talk about why TTS is mafia and not a policy lynch, but has not pushed him as a viable candidate at all. It's purely distancing, he wants to get credit for calling TTS mafia, but he doesn't actually want to pursue the 'read' + Show Spoiler +On March 16 2024 19:12 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2024 18:56 DarthPunk wrote:
Can I ask you why you never really pursued your reads on Oats and TTS on day one?
TTS was never a "read" per se. I noticed he said something like "I'm not going to do anything till day 4" which to me was weird because he expected to be alive by then. But I also recognized it was a very minor thing. He did post though, and I remember someone asking about the difference between hapa and TTS in my views, and that is exactly that. Hapa just straight up left. TTS made some bad posts and left. Trfel made some decent posts and left. I considered them all vigi targets/possible policy lynches on day 1/night 1, but obviously each situation is different. I can't claim I "caught" TTS, he was just mafia by measurable heuristics. This response last night should have pinged me more, basically he is saying that someone was not a scum read (untrue by his own words) and was just mafia by heuristics (how is this different to a scum read?) and therefore didn't need to pursue the read he had on mafia day one? Thats just fucking mafia gymnastics right there. Again with oats: Early distancing:+ Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 06:22 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 06:19 VisceraEyes wrote:On March 05 2024 06:18 Palmar wrote:
I read like 2 posts of Oats and he's scummy Then he voted for me and I'm blasting town like everywhere PPPSWSSHHHHHH I agree with you being town. I'm like 2 pages into the game so all my reads are just random feelings right now but I like you, Vivax, iamp and DP. I don't like Oats. On March 05 2024 09:54 Palmar wrote:
Oats scummy read is for announcing he wants to be mayor but then I skimmed a few more points and he didn’t really push the idea he should be. On March 05 2024 19:41 Palmar wrote:So I'm going to talk about a few people now. Consider this just rambling thoughts about the thread that I'm absolutely not going to read in full. Probably gonna do this in a few parts so my reads might evolve from now until I've done the last people I want to talk about. OatsmasterBoth initially, and currently, the reason he's my tentative #1 lynch target is based on exactly one thing, this: Go find that post in his filter, then read the following maybe... 20 posts? I don't think there is a single one of them where he is actually pushing to get himself elected as mayor. Ironically he scolded someone else for doing that same thing. Show nested quote +On March 04 2024 12:39 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:25 DarthPunk wrote:On March 04 2024 12:23 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 04 2024 12:21 DarthPunk wrote:
Mayor will sort itself out, probably be marv at the end of the day if he is town. Hi again, not a big fan of you not pushing to be mayor, what gives? I don't think pushing for it actually does anything. You don’t seem to even want to be mayor There really isn't much else to it. The case is simply "He said he wanted to be mayor but then none of his posting seems to point towards him actually wanting to be mayor". It's far from lock scum case, it's mostly just a bad play regardless of alignment, but it's... maybe easier to explain as an attempt to do something bold as mafia. I'm gonna read more before I plant a vote or anything. Look how fast and easily he turns around on his scumread on oats + Show Spoiler +On March 05 2024 19:47 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2024 19:45 Koshi wrote:
Glad to see Palmar his Oats read be so lackluster. Makes it less easier to vote him out. [red] I've lynched Oats for being bad town before. I'm perfectly willing to listen to ideas for other people to kill. Palmar never wanted to lynch oats, even when he calls out oats for the exact and only reason he can be called out that early. A player of palmar's calibre, confidence and hubris does not just bend over like this unless he WANTS TO. Oats is basically ignored again BTW until the red check+ Show Spoiler +On March 07 2024 17:05 Palmar wrote:
Like 90% mafia is basically the best shot we can get. I’m sorry Oats but not much to do about it. If you’re town just get to work and leave a strong legacy. Look at this subtle suggestion on a VE wagon btw, I say here that I am glad I don't have to lynch VE when there is oats on the table and Palmar says: On March 07 2024 17:14 Palmar wrote:On March 07 2024 17:12 DarthPunk wrote:
In a way I’m happy oats got read checked cause now I don’t have to lynch ve today. Don’t think killing VE would’ve been all that hard. It’s a hobby of mine. Easy to convince me to take part. He is basically soft suggesting a swap onto VE here, to me who is KNOWN to fuck around with wagons at the deadline. but then we are back to the correct play that Palmar HAS to go with or claim mafia. Stay the course on Oats. + Show Spoiler +On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
Slam - we lynch slam if Oats flips non-miller town. The frame idea is statistically so unlikely
Oats - we lynch Oats today because despite his efforts, there is like 90% chance of him flipping mafia. He does look and say townie things which is pretty well played, but the odds of any other random player flipping red just happen to be significantly lower
Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed
This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.
On March 09 2024 07:11 Palmar wrote:
Essentially it comes down to:
I really need to filter dive CopCake, DMB, MZ, Rels and JSL because there's like 3 mafia in there.
One is probably either Oats or Slam, unless we're just the unluckiest town in the world.
Also if Slam and Vivax are genuinely town and both claimed on day 1, we deserve to lose.
There's gonna be a hidden mafia there somewhere. On March 09 2024 07:26 Palmar wrote:
But yeah, I simply cannot worry about the worst case scenario (Framer) because if you lose to a successful frame there really isn't much to be done.
All the other scenarios ranging from salvage-able to great
Oats is mafia: great
Slam is mafia: good, 1 for 1 is acceptable
Oats is miller: salvageable, at least slam gets confirmed
And mafia needs to shoot slam, so Vivax can play mind games whether or not to jail slam in that last scenario. Mafia can't just RB slam, because they need to RB DP if DP is town which I think is the case. Subtly hinting at a swap off, directly contradicting all his 'stay the course' posts. + Show Spoiler +On March 09 2024 07:32 Palmar wrote:
Like I think you've done everything right if you're town Oats, and if you're mafia massive kudos for wool stuff. I am NEVER lynching you here without a red check.
I'll stick around for a little bit while doing other stuff, but I'm just not confident enough in my reads to actually move somewhere else. I think. On March 09 2024 07:50 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2024 07:48 Koshi wrote:
I think if Oats flips town marv is mafia over Palmar tbh. But maybe I am just angry he is voting his townread. To be fair I'm voting a townread Oats as well On March 09 2024 07:54 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2024 11:27 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mafia inside Marv/Oats/Jake/Cake and mix in a couple of hiding lurkers. Dealers choice. I think the game ends in town victory, even if you lot lynch me tomorrow.
I'm sorry I couldn't give this game the time it deserves, my weekend starts tomorrow so I'll at least fight my lynch if I live the night.
Good luck urybody. You know after all that bullshit on staying the course, palmar never votes for oats. On March 09 2024 07:55 Palmar wrote:
##Vote: VisceraEyes This should have been a death sentence right here. I will admit I was wrong on Palmar, I was pocketed by him and defended him through 2 lynch attempts. but this here is blatant mafia play for a player of the caliber of palmar, he does know better. On March 16 2024 19:12 Palmar wrote:On March 16 2024 18:56 DarthPunk wrote:
Can I ask you why you never really pursued your reads on Oats and TTS on day one?
Regarding Oats, and I know this isn't going to sound great for me. I didn't do great on the scumhunting part in the last game I played. It's been like 4 years since I played mafia, and I lynched HF despite the fact I should've known better, and it took me a long time to find both dmb and rayn. I essentially had to rely on marv bailing me out of a lynch, and then on cooperation with sandroba that I should've seen as town much earlier to finish the game. Yes, I got around to voting only mafia for the last few days, but it took me longer than expected. [red] So, this game, and this is still the case, and I really need a smaller game to clear my head a bit, my confidence has been shaken a little bit. Just look at the lack of "fuck you, you're mafia" I've done this game. I'm genuinely not sure on anything. For someone who if town, is not confident in his reads enough to pursue them in any fashion whatsoever, he is confident enough to NOT LYNCH A RED CHECK ON DAY 2. Just mafia. Now we get to METABasically my analysis of palmars play in this game vs his last game is town is as follows: This game: 1.) not agentic in pursuing mafia reads 2.) self awareness of stylistic differences and explaining them away. 3.) referencing a lack of confidence to excuse scummy things away. Last game: 1.) very confident and forceful in scumhunting 2.) leads wagon on vivax and pushes hard for his lynch choices. 3.)extreme levels of confidence and arrogance. From Town!palmars own analysis last game + Show Spoiler +On December 12 2023 18:15 Palmar wrote:
Some other random thoughts.
HF slides a little towards scummy
Still think DMB is more likely to be town
There is a world where we need to attack Koshi and HF just to get them to do something.
Shooting Chez is a good idea if we have a vigilante. He's never going to reveal his alignment through analysis. Checking into the less useful good players (marv, rayn, HF)
Another thing, I think this list is important. From most to least influential day 1 town play (disregarding some of the bits I haven't caught up on from last night):
Palmar
DP
Trfel
Marv
Koshi
DMB
Rayn
Sandroba
HF
Slam
Chezinu
Aside from the trolls (bottom 2) I think it's somewhat important to think about how much people actually tried to get shit done on day 1. This is not a "bottom mafia, top town" list, but rather an indicator on how much I think people tried to get their vision of the game done in the game on day 1. Mafia likes to not be the initiating factor in town, but rather just follow along.
On December 13 2023 06:59 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 13 2023 05:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Why is Palmar top 1 contributor in his list when Palmar just lead a mislynch and DP top 2 was probably on mafia sandroba? Isn't that clear? Obviously the primary contributor to the day is the person who got his choice of lynch killed. I didn't say it was necessarily a positive contribution. The list is based on how hard and successfully people pushed their ideas in the threadYou know mafia likes to sheep more than they like to lead. It's an important list, but only as extra evidence. No one got more shit done on day 1 than me. Doesn't really matter if I'm right or wrong. I will allow you to call me bad for keeping him alive thus far, but I am redeeming myself in the end, it is impossible he is not mafia in this spot. He will certainly have a very confident and persuasive defense. but to paraphrase the great man himself: Judge him on the things that he did or failed to do this game. In the words of our fallen town heroes: On March 15 2024 06:34 Koshi wrote:
I will never trust Palmar this game. On March 07 2024 11:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:Lynch Palmar, + Show Spoiler +After D3 there is noone left to do that anymore and people AGAIN let them slide bewcause noone listen to dead people. I don't like the spoilering of things that won't work with your world view, but damn this is a good post overall IMO. Happy to be parked here on Palmar for now.
Lol, that was a joke.
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On March 17 2024 16:23 iamperfection wrote:
So why now dp.
What is your current thinking of for the mafia team?
I read again disregarding the tone that I like from palmar as either alignment I guess.
I think Jealous/Jat/Palmar.
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On March 17 2024 16:32 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 16:23 iamperfection wrote:
So why now dp.
What is your current thinking of for the mafia team? I read again disregarding the tone that I like from palmar as either alignment I guess. I think Jealous/Jat/Palmar.
Like I was wrong about cake and i was not killed at night, I spent all day reading palmar again with a critical lens.
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On March 17 2024 16:32 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 16:23 iamperfection wrote:
So why now dp.
What is your current thinking of for the mafia team? I read again disregarding the tone that I like from palmar as either alignment I guess. I think Jealous/Jat/Palmar.
But I think DMB/mz could be in there purely if analyzing from a palmar!mafia perspective.
there was some weird takes from him about both of them.
He mentions dmb in the post day one where he cases Oats, and basically says: here is weird stuff about DMB, but I have no conclusion to draw, just weird.
That struck me as odd,
MZ I think is more likely ML candidate then partnered but there is, again, weirdness in the way they interact with each other.
Regardless, I want to see a palmer flip first and then sort the rest.
I think Jealous is a good lynch but I think palmar is the best lynch today.
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On March 17 2024 12:39 Rels wrote:It's objectively the one for which I shouldn't be townreading him that hard But subjectively, I have a very hard time believeing the level of mindmeld we shared this game is fake. Everything is the same minus the Palmar read. If Jealous really is scum, it's like he's been playing against his wincon and make the game way harder for himself. You could arguee he could be playing lone wolf, but without the CopCake flip yesterday, he would have finished trapped in his own POE reads one way or the other before LYLO comes
And yet your biggest scum read this game is Palmar who he has read town the whole game, so how does that parse?
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On March 17 2024 18:49 iamperfection wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2024 17:01 DarthPunk wrote:On March 17 2024 16:32 DarthPunk wrote:On March 17 2024 16:23 iamperfection wrote:
So why now dp.
What is your current thinking of for the mafia team? I read again disregarding the tone that I like from palmar as either alignment I guess. I think Jealous/Jat/Palmar. But I think DMB/mz could be in there purely if analyzing from a palmar!mafia perspective. there was some weird takes from him about both of them. He mentions dmb in the post day one where he cases Oats, and basically says: here is weird stuff about DMB, but I have no conclusion to draw, just weird. That struck me as odd, MZ I think is more likely ML candidate then partnered but there is, again, weirdness in the way they interact with each other. Regardless, I want to see a palmer flip first and then sort the rest. I think Jealous is a good lynch but I think palmar is the best lynch today. So you think it's possible mz with a mafia palmar partner came into the thread and voted ve then revealed that he was voting for the lulz in a mason chat? He revealed that at the time it happened too. I don't think that is likely the more I think about it.
It’s like the 4th option so I agree it’s not that likely.
But I am more confident on you and vivax town and Rels makes less sense again. Maybe Rels is possible. But if so has been bussing all game.
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Anyway what do you think of my case am I wrong to have flipped my read here?
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EPT
