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So much has been discussed this evening I just want someone to hold my hand through it :p
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On December 16 2023 08:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I really don't know how Koshi and sandroba look really good even from your perspective.
You don’t think they do? I mean I know you answered this but O.o
I’m sort of getting the feeling that literally the only good thing I’ve done this game is vote Chez and apart from that I’ve defended mafia and tried to lynch a townie.
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I just want to be clear (and very unhelpful) that for the moment I’m backing off rayn and not backing on to anyone else. If I’m alive I’ll sort that out somehow.
Feel like I might die, not because im useful but because im very townread now.
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On December 16 2023 09:05 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 08:29 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 07:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Koshi would you have voted for Chezinu if marv didn't vote?
marv would you have voted for Chezinu if your event didn't happen? I’d like to think so. But it’s a hypothetical. All I can say is that it felt right once I did it, despite how much I bitched that lynching Chez d2 was a cop out If i get lynched this game it is going to be your fault, and it's going to be because of this post.
I’ll try to work out why that’s the case, again, if I’m alive to do so.
It is the truth though. I think my problem with the counter wagon was simply that it was Chez.
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Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself?
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THere is gonna be an absolute shit ton of wifom about this NK because of the loop of people being suspicious of Palmar (inc Koshi) and the fact I have been defending Palmar.
I don’t know how you’re supposed to successfully escape this loop with a conclusion one way or another, it feels impossible.
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Trfel, I had been internally waffling on your alignment still, and then you post that.
It feels extremely townie, not only the fact it’s well thought out but your “assumptions” - and the potential pitfalls you mention about them - seems like exactly how a townie might be trying to approach the game here.
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And as an aside, Trfel I can’t speak for anyone else on rayn, but it was your post on him that made me retreat from my townread. And the fact that I couldn’t understand the game for sure, but your post is what made me think.
So give yourself some credit on the way you posted about him
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On December 16 2023 17:04 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:02 marvellosity wrote:
THere is gonna be an absolute shit ton of wifom about this NK because of the loop of people being suspicious of Palmar (inc Koshi) and the fact I have been defending Palmar.
I don’t know how you’re supposed to successfully escape this loop with a conclusion one way or another, it feels impossible. Yeah I get that. To the best of my knowledge, night kill analysis says you or Palmar (or I guess both) is mafia, but I don't believe that very much yet. Any thoughts about die_meatbaby?
So I think your point d1 about Vivax is bad - actuallly you don’t need a better reason than thinking Vivax’s filter was bad. That was the gist of the whole case.
I liked your bit about the vote on Chez.
Something I am thinking about is the tone of DMB’s posts. Because actually a lot seems to come down to this. Palmar (without talking about his alignment for the moment) basically has a tone read that she is town, as in he is buying how she reacts to things in the thread.
There’s another option though, that I want to get to a laptop for at some point to see if I want to make a post about (see that waffle!) - and that is some of the emotion is contrived. Maybe sand is right about his comment on DMB talking about Palmar’s filter. But on top of that there is sort of stuff in there where DMB is… over emotional? Or maybe better wording, over angry at town at certain points? Or maybe it feels like she is leaning too much into “not rolling mafia”, but shouldn’t that come across a bit less angry and a bit more sad or bored?
I may not be explaining this very well, partly because I haven’t really put in the work to see if these preliminary thoughts are accurate or not.
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Maybe DMB is so angry recently at least because people suggest she might be mafia.
But I don’t remember that anger when she has been suspected as town previously
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Also, Trfel, can I just say I share your thoughts on Slam precisely. The confidence others have is not confidence I have, but I don’t see what I can do other than roll with it.
Like the absolute most lucid Slam has ever been was pushing Chez lynch. And some other stuff I super agreed with that I think I posted about. And absolutely Slam can be playing a fabulous town game and I have no real basis to say they’re wrong, but, ya know. Could simply be a product of perfect information.
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On December 16 2023 17:30 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:17 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:04 Trfel wrote:On December 16 2023 17:02 marvellosity wrote:
THere is gonna be an absolute shit ton of wifom about this NK because of the loop of people being suspicious of Palmar (inc Koshi) and the fact I have been defending Palmar.
I don’t know how you’re supposed to successfully escape this loop with a conclusion one way or another, it feels impossible. Yeah I get that. To the best of my knowledge, night kill analysis says you or Palmar (or I guess both) is mafia, but I don't believe that very much yet. Any thoughts about die_meatbaby? So I think your point d1 about Vivax is bad - actuallly you don’t need a better reason than thinking Vivax’s filter was bad. That was the gist of the whole case. I liked your bit about the vote on Chez. Something I am thinking about is the tone of DMB’s posts. Because actually a lot seems to come down to this. Palmar (without talking about his alignment for the moment) basically has a tone read that she is town, as in he is buying how she reacts to things in the thread. There’s another option though, that I want to get to a laptop for at some point to see if I want to make a post about (see that waffle!) - and that is some of the emotion is contrived. Maybe sand is right about his comment on DMB talking about Palmar’s filter. But on top of that there is sort of stuff in there where DMB is… over emotional? Or maybe better wording, over angry at town at certain points? Or maybe it feels like she is leaning too much into “not rolling mafia”, but shouldn’t that come across a bit less angry and a bit more sad or bored? I may not be explaining this very well, partly because I haven’t really put in the work to see if these preliminary thoughts are accurate or not. Hm. I guess I never felt like just calling something bad was a fair descriptor. It still feels so thread-sentiment driven that it's weird for it to be a coincidence, I'll have to think about it though. I'm not good about tonereads, it's really hard for me to tell what emotion is genuine and what is not over text, and especially using that to figure out alignments is a nightmare. If you think you can make more sense of it then I await your report. I see what you are saying about the die_meatbaby/Vivax thing I suppose. I saw someone mention that die_meatbaby usually jumps all over whatever she thinks Vivax says that is suspicious since they know each other, it still just feels off to me, but I get that I could be wrong. Meh. You still think Palmar is town, right?
In my heart I believe Palmar is town right now.
Clearly I am going to need to filter him to try to read what Hf/Koshi etc are saying about him and try to see from that perspective.
But just as the thread progressed, lots of things said town Palmar to me, things that other people read as mafia.
To be honest, the whole game almost comes down to this and this alone. Do I stand by my own Palmar read despite the reservations of basically the whole game. Part of how I’ve tried really hard to evolve as a player is moving off my own certainties because they may be wrong. The flip side to this is - there are going to be times when I am right even though everyone is telling me I’m wrong. So…. Which is this? (rhetorical question 🙂)
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Remember Slam masoned Palmar on d1 Trfel
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On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others.
Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it?
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On December 16 2023 17:45 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:
Remember Slam masoned Palmar on d1 Trfel Sorry I am confused, doesn't that support what I am saying?
Errrrrr it might. I retract my comment your honour.
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On December 16 2023 17:48 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is. Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case
I don’t have the truth for you, just asking questions!
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On December 16 2023 17:49 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 16:48 marvellosity wrote:
Palmar, are you going to play to try to find mafia today, or are you just hunkering down to defend yourself? Neither really. We’re weekend posting. The game is actually quite simple from my point of view. There are only 3 options. Rayn HF Sandroba. All I need to do is figure out who is the best lynch
You’re set on DMB town?
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On December 16 2023 17:48 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On December 16 2023 17:45 marvellosity wrote:On December 16 2023 17:40 Trfel wrote:PalmarI should say that I don't think it's super likely that Palmar and die_meatbaby are mafia together. But that's unflipped association analysis and I shouldn't rule it out regardless, just an interesting point. + Show Spoiler [analysis] +It's 3a here so I'm going to start going a little faster. On December 12 2023 00:32 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2023 23:52 sandroba wrote:On December 11 2023 22:47 Vivax wrote:
There's nothing exonerating Sandro in his filter.
It's mostly just generic reasons to call me mafia and he can't even find the text pieces to prove what he's saying. I've been far from a blend-in playstyle. This post here also shows a mafia mindset, not arguing against the substance of what I'm saying, which is that his first post he did not read the thread and tried to reach a conclusion about my alignment, but instead he followed thread sentiment and quoted I few things from my post to appear to be contributing. In the post above he dismisses it as generic and quibbles about me not finding text pieces, which is classic mafia sentiment for "you are accusing me for the wrong reasons" This btw is a genuinely very scummy post. Not because of it's context but because of the thought process behind it. Sandroba can easily just say "well Palmar looks town so I go murder train on Vivax", but instead he does "independent research" and comes to the same conclusion to justify his vote. It's forced "case". This is a scummy post if Vivax flips mafia and it's also scummy if Vivax flips town. But the good thing is that it locks in Sandroba's vote on Vivax so I don't care for now. Can only lynch one dude today. Ignoring Palmar's push onto Vivax. I don't know how alignment indicative it is. This is the first thing that really sticks out in Palmar's filter from an alignment indicative perspective, I don't think Palmar's reasoning here is valid. Let's check this. This is post #794. What did sandroba think about Palmar before this? Answer: likely town. Fair enough, maybe I stand corrected. I still think this is a big mischaracterization of what sandroba is doing though. On December 12 2023 18:29 Palmar wrote:
Like I think the plan of putting Sandroba through the ringer tomorrow is a pretty good one. It's pretty standard for me to immediately spot mafia on day 1 and then convince myself that some random useless townie is definitely the better lynch. Did Palmar really immediately spot sandroba as mafia though? That wasn't the impression I got. Lemme check this. Well I checked it, I didn't see Palmar's posts that way, but it's possible Palmar did. Meh. On December 12 2023 18:34 Palmar wrote:
Koshi, DP and dmb are my townreads atm
Trfel is lean town but he dropped off hard, rayn is also neat but also lazy
HF, Sandroba and maybe marv are scumreads. some of today has made me think marv maybe a little less scummy so the other two are the ones I wanna murder I think
Then we have slam and chez
Side note, it's weird that he dropped Alakaslam from being a townread. Don't really get that at all. On December 13 2023 07:11 Palmar wrote:
My reads are what they are, HF/Sandroba probably the bottom tier. Still think we shoot trolls if we can.
If slam and chez are both town, along with Vivax being a troll for some reason, this is gonna be a hard game. Doubling down on it, and calling Alakaslam a troll feels very off, especially given that they were masoned together and Palmar's reasoning earlier. I actually think this is an important point, the first important point I'm seeing from Palmar (in terms of alignment indicativeness). On December 14 2023 02:53 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 02:48 Trfel wrote:
I'm just going to vote for Chezinu, I think he is just mafia. We had a game in the past where we were town together and talked quite a bit, and a game in the past where we were scum together, in fact I think maybe two games, and his effort and engagement with the game feel very scummy. He's capable of much more as town, we all know this. You shouldn't have to beg him to interact with the game. He's even made plenty of posts, the time is there, the desire to do anything about solving the game is not.
##vote Chezinu
The house of brown has found it time to end your mafia-ness. Scummy Wait, why is this scummy? I somehow haven't seen this post before. Especially given that Chezinu flipped mafia, the callout on my vote looks worse. More than being wrong in that Chezinu was mafia, it feels discrediting. Then again it's also Palmar and Palmar can just kinda be like this, so idk. Triples down on calling Alakaslam a troll. I don't get how he can say this, Alakaslam isn't a troll anymore, and especially not this game. I must add, I find the descriptions of Palmar and sandroba's mason chat rather amusing. On December 14 2023 23:42 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On December 14 2023 23:37 sandroba wrote:
I don't think I'll be able to convince anyone Palmar is mafia today due to how much people already suspect me. I'd be down to lynch DMB/Chezinu.
To anyone who is town: Please let's rally and find a good lynch today. Don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me and be in the same spot tomorrow with DMB and Chezinu alive, being convinced by Palmar and his cheerleader they were just wrong and now we must lynch Trfel or w/e. The list on you is me, Koshi, Marv and Holyflare. You say "don't let the mafia steamroll this lynch on me". Are these mafia-steamrollers in the room with us right now? Palmar isn't really townreading these people though, is he? Meh, he tentatively is, except for Holyflare. Actually, he's probably saying this from sandroba's perspective, so this is all invalid. On December 15 2023 06:55 Palmar wrote:
stay safe Marv
This Chez lynch is such a crapshoot. But I'm almost tempted to just not do anything about it and see it through. I feel like the game is in a bad state at the moment so maybe rolling the dice is a good idea.
How is the game in a bad state? You said that it was a productive Day 1 and you have a strong scumread? I'm really confused about where the uncertainty is coming from. At times Palmar seems certain about sandroba being mafia, like enough to not take him super seriously in the mason chat, but also Palmar says stuff like this. On December 15 2023 05:19 Grackaroni wrote:
Day Two Vote Count
Chezinu (6): Trfel, Alakaslam, sandroba, raynpelikoneet, marvellosity, Koshi
sandroba (2): marvellosity, Koshi, Palmar, Holyflare, Holyflare
Trfel (1): sandroba, Holyflare, Chezinu, Alakaslam
die_meatbaby (0): sandroba
Palmar (0): sandroba
Not Voting (1):die_meatbaby
With 6 votes, Chezinu is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Friday, Dec 15 3:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Vote count before Palmar switched his vote to Chezinu. I can see Palmar's perspective that lynching Chezinu was purely a policy lynch, but going for it at this point over his strong scumread (or is it a strong scumread)? of sandroba seems off to me. I need to reread his filter again but paying attention to the sandroba scumread, it's like I somehow missed the part where Palmar isn't actually sure if sandroba is mafia and is significantly doubting it. But I just didn't see that stated. On December 15 2023 09:45 Palmar wrote:
I still think sandroba is scum. Even if I was mostly trolling him in the QT, I feel like he had a narrative that he wanted to push, an ideal target to land upon and was avoiding trying to give too much other stuff away.
Also, while this is not necessarily a strong scum-tell, it always felt like he was doing the "right thing" in pushing for a lynch he likes. My interactions with him felt like he wasn't annoyed and incredulous enough at being accused of being mafia. He almost "accepted" being called mafia and tried to push for a different lynch.
Now this isn't a scummy thing in itself, a good townie will push for alternative lynches, but the problem is I feel like townies tend to almost always get angry about being called scum when they aren't.
It's largely an emotional read on sandro. Okay I just really don't get it. On December 15 2023 09:50 Palmar wrote:
My current team is like sandro/rayn and some random dude. Maybe chez? who knows. But he is content voting for Chezinu? And a post before (2012) he said raynpelikoneet is highly likely mafia? Here's the thing about Palmar. He says he feels lost and doesn't know anything but his posts don't seem to indicate that, he seems to have scumreads he is confident in? On December 15 2023 20:00 Palmar wrote:
Slam gets an automatic pass tomorrow. I townread him initially, I think him masoning me is a town move, and he just... led town? ... to a mafia lynch. If this was a bus we search for his partner. The simple explanation is that Slam is town and I see no reason to pursue that further. Wait what, wasn't Alakaslam a policy for day 2? So so confused. This feels convenient given that everyone is townreading Alakaslam. No conclusion just yet, need to double check. Also I'm tired and I don't quite trust myself to come up with a valid conclusion at this point. But two points that stick out. 1 - Palmar says he thinks Alakaslam is town day 1, then day 2 calls him a troll/unreadable, then day 3 calls him town for the same reason Palmar said Alakaslam was town on day 1. This doesn't make much sense to me. I could see Palmar giving Alakaslam a pass on day 1 and then looking into it more on day 2+, but going back to it FOR THE EXACT SAME REASONS seems suspect. 2 - Palmar's read on sandroba day 2 especially made no sense. Sandroba was one of his top scumreads, and he seemed confident in that read, but he also kept saying things where he seemed to be doubting. It's like he was simultaneously both confident in that read and doubting that read.In the end I don't really know what to think of Palmar, I was thinking he was town before and now I'm really not so sure. But my energy for quality analysis is pretty much gone at this point, I'll try and follow up on these things tomorrow. Curious if people have any thoughts on die_meatbaby and Palmar for these reasons or others. Isn’t that exactly what I did for a lot of it? My interpretation was that you were more just doubting. Palmar was sometimes doubting and sometimes certain. But maybe that's just the way he is. Maybe I'm just not thinking clearly anymore, sorry if that is the case
I was definitely the more openly doubt-y. But that’s more of a personality thing I think.
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On December 16 2023 17:53 Trfel wrote:
I still think the point about Palmar's Alakaslam thing has a lot of merit. Not worth lynching Palmar over on its own of course, but unless I am missing something, surely an alarm bell or two?
Eh… maybe. I can see why you think it and I’m not gonna tell you you’re wrong. Maybe I will pay attention to that on a reread. My gut reaction is meh though, which I understand isn’t very helpful right now.
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EPT
