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On November 25 2020 02:41 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 02:20 Hapahauli wrote:On November 25 2020 01:20 Vivax wrote:On November 25 2020 01:01 Hapahauli wrote:On November 25 2020 00:45 Vivax wrote:On November 25 2020 00:34 Hapahauli wrote:
Vivax's entrance is uninspiring and scummy, since he makes 6 pointless posts about reads that he's not read enough of the thread to be confident on. Strike while the iron is hot. I might forget something that caught my eye if I don't instantly write about it. But noted that to you the posts are pointless. Are they also pointless when I'm caught up? No. There is a difference between: "Slam is mafia/suspicious/whatever for reasons*" * this read is subject to change after I read the thread.and "Slam is mafia/suspicious/whatever for reasons" The first doesn't inherently state anything. You are saying I could now go back and take back what I said about Slam because I've read the thread after I said it? What would I say in the case where you are right and I find three dudes who I want to lynch more than him? Your implication is that I'd invalidate what I said about Slam while I'd just say I found three dudes who are scummier than him. In conclusion, you'd not like me to spell out whatever is going through my mind at a given moment if it isn't my baked out scumteam (which btw seems impossible D1 with these players)? Because that's what the purpose of you calling out my post as pointless would be if it isn't to just shovel shit in my general direction, which it felt like. No one is asking you to throw out a full scum-team less than 24 hours into day 1. Question: you believe I am "shoveling shit" at you since I pointed out something that you did that I perceived as "scummy" (useless posts, etc.). Is that not exactly the function of posting what you did about Slam? Posting a suspicion with qualifications, and then immediately hedging those suspicions? On November 25 2020 00:22 Vivax wrote:
Anyway I don't want to call him mafia before I've read everything. Going to get to that now. You said pointless and scummy. You explained why the pointless, you didn't explain why the scummy. ...
Scum want to "look like they contribute, without actually contributing." Hence "pointless" in this context is a scumtell. Your posts, in effect, look like reads and contributions, but are actually not. It is the appearance vs the reality which creates the scumminess.
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On November 25 2020 03:25 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 02:51 Vivax wrote:On November 25 2020 02:46 Grackaroni wrote:On November 25 2020 01:37 Vivax wrote:
Grack have you arrived to anything conclusion-wise in regards to Trfel?
Or any other player for that matter. Feels like now you're just sitting back waiting to see what gets thrown at you. I really just don't get quick reads the way other people tend to do. I actually spend a lot of time reading too funnily enough. You're right that Trfel seems pretty comfortable when talking about me/Rayn but I do think his opening post was an uncomfortable one. I expected to be scum reading Jock going into a filter dive but I came out thinking his point on Trfel is actually a good one. Trfel seemed like he really wanted to push out his read that Slam was approaching his mayor run in a townie way, but then at the end he's waffling because Slam is being persistent? The only thing I'd feel pretty strongly so far is that Hapa is town. Where did that expectation come from? You sound a lot like you have a Trfel suspicion but are hesitant to say it, which I think Hapa already mentioned (and that makes him town?). Was the mayor thing serious? Since you haven't really said on what premise you'd lynch. On November 24 2020 09:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 24 2020 09:15 Alakaslam wrote:On November 24 2020 09:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 24 2020 09:12 Alakaslam wrote:
Why is hapa NOT campaigning then? Now this is actually a townie question i have been waiting anyone to ask.  Well Yeah which is why you wanting it to be you or him was sus as hell but then Trfel came and put his pants on his head and shat on the carpet so I was too busy going “wtf” at that. Plus the occam’s razor hamblin’s razor whichever one. I dont know if you realised it but i have been kinda being after this from my first post to him. I guess i can reveal my this thing: now. On November 24 2020 06:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:Okay, we'll see about that later on then. Then i am also not gonna post the follow up i was going to yet.  I dont really think Hapa is town atm. I think he should at least maybe have some reads he doesnt atm. So, did he build them yet? That was mostly just my gut call going into it. Perhaps a mistrust of his town read on me from what I said about Slam. I'm on the fence. I initially would have put him as a slight town lean but after you asked me I started looking further and I might go in the opposite direction if prodded. Hapa is town independent of his read on me. He's laying out cases for who he thinks is town (Trfel) and trying to make him mayor. I trust that he looked through some of Slam's scum games and I like that he made a post stating high confidence in these reads. Plus you've got to love him calling out Rayn for not getting into a rant with him after complaining about Rayn always fighting him. Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 02:12 Hapahauli wrote:
Based on my own interactions with you this game (Rayn), I am also somewhat surprised that we aren't ranting at each other yet. This doesn't make you inherently mafia, but the tone is different enough for me to take notice, and for me to nod my head when others take notice.
I assume the mayor will make clear who they are looking to kill and people will end up voting based off that. At the moment I don't think that's clear from anybody yet. Realistically I'm more likely to be lynched than lynching, but I'll go for it anyway.
I am a hard man to please. Ask Rayn.
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On November 25 2020 03:25 Grackaroni wrote:... Plus you've got to love him calling out Rayn for not getting into a rant with him after complaining about Rayn always fighting him. Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 02:12 Hapahauli wrote:
Based on my own interactions with you this game (Rayn), I am also somewhat surprised that we aren't ranting at each other yet. This doesn't make you inherently mafia, but the tone is different enough for me to take notice, and for me to nod my head when others take notice.
...
In all seriousness, why would this make me "town"? On its face, isn't this an inconsistency in my story?
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We are 24 hours into the day and the mayoral vote is completely spread. This is not a situation that is good for town if it persists.
There needs to be some move by those who haven't voted to cast their vote. There also needs to be a move by those who aren't "viable candidates" to withdraw.
As stated previously, I believe Trfel is a logical choice for mayor.
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Like it or not Shockeyy, you are not much of a risk to be shot on N1, nor have you been super involved in the game thusfar.
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Out of curiosity Rayn, what is my motive or incentive as mafia to not run for Mayor, if I am a "natural" mayoral candidate?
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On November 25 2020 06:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 06:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Out of curiosity Rayn, what is my motive or incentive as mafia to not run for Mayor, if I am a "natural" mayoral candidate? idk, maybe to be less of "town leader" as you said, sit in the sidelines more and justify not being shot. i dont know why mafia does stupid stuff. you do those as well as anyone else does
Let's assume that I am mafia-hapa, trying to live a lazy-scum-life and therefore avoiding the limelight. Would it still not be a good strategy for me to be elected mayor? I would have quite a nice excuse for being alive later in the game.
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Fair enough. I'd like to see what you think about the trfel/grack stuffs.
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On November 25 2020 06:38 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 06:35 Hapahauli wrote:On November 25 2020 06:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 25 2020 06:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Out of curiosity Rayn, what is my motive or incentive as mafia to not run for Mayor, if I am a "natural" mayoral candidate? idk, maybe to be less of "town leader" as you said, sit in the sidelines more and justify not being shot. i dont know why mafia does stupid stuff. you do those as well as anyone else does Let's assume that I am mafia-hapa, trying to live a lazy-scum-life and therefore avoiding the limelight. Would it still not be a good strategy for me to be elected mayor? I would have quite a nice excuse for being alive later in the game. But you'd have to lead. Which you as per your own words do not want to do. Lynch kills you regardless of bodyguard.
If I get elected mayor and subsequently lynched on day 3 (as mafia), that's a lot better than getting lazy and getting lynched on day 3 as not-mayor.
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On November 25 2020 06:39 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I dont really know what you want from me here?
Do you like think it's scummy for me to think there is something wrong with best town player in the game not wanting to be mayor?
Not really, I'm exploring the logic. How you think about problems influences my read on you. In an ideal world, I'd like to have you as mayor if I believe you are town.
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Can you elaborate on Vivax / Grack?
My sense of Grack was that he was "softing" his suspicions on Trfel while "puffing out his chest". That type of "bravado" tends to come from mafia in my experience.
Regarding Vivax, I can understand how some of the standoffishness and "grouchyness" are town-tells. What brings your confidence interval to "no way in hell Vivax is mafia this game"?
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On November 25 2020 07:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
...
I dont really get what you are saying about Grack? I think Grack is a tricky and a smart player but i dont really think he is trying to make anything out of nothing here?
Regarding Grack, it is possible that I am making something of nothing. All early-game cases have a good amount of guesswork. This game especially - there seems to be no player that is actively pushing the pace of the game along, and we frankly don't have much to go on.
Anywho, my suspicions on Grack are something that I see reasonably often come from mafia. I wouldn't call my "confidence interval" on it super high (there's only so much accuracy to have in a 10-page game), but it's really the best I can go on at this point.
With Grack, his play can be summed up as such:
1) A fairly substanceless mayoral "campaign";
2) An interaction with Trfel in which he seems to soft-call Trfel mafia without directly saying so: https://tl.net/forum/mafia/565699-a-mostly-normal-game-of-mafia?page=9#175 (for example, him saying that Trfel wants to "dig himself out of a hole" is very difficult to construct as anything other than throwing suspicion at him)
3) A town-read on me with some... questionable logic...
... and that's the best I can go on at this point with 10 pages. And I'd rather talk about and attempt to find reasons that people are mafia rather than PoE my way into lynching lurkers. We may very will lynch a lurker, but I do not believe that is a good foundation of discussion.
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Mornin'.
So we have a lynch in 6 hours. This discussion needs to be about a) who is mayor, and b) who town wants dead. There are too many people talking about light suspicions and townreads. That is not important right now.
Trfel for mayor. Whoever is mayor should shoot Grack or Shockeyy.
I think Grack is mafia, and I think Trfel brought up the best point against him: he has been relatively active and running for mayor, but reading his filter, I have no sense of what is "platform" is and who he even wants lynched. That seems like the hallmark of scum "looking like they want to contribute."
Shockeyy is remarkably disengaged in this game. He is existing, but again, no idea of what he wants to accomplish beyond his mayoral preferences.
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On November 26 2020 02:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 07:22 ShoCkeyy wrote:On November 25 2020 06:28 ShoCkeyy wrote:
My concern is in his running post for mayor state this:
As your Mayor I pledge to CRUSH the "opposition“
He stated opposition instead of just stating mafia, which is the towns opposition. His opposition here could be town. Rayn this is basically my reasoning on why I don’t think Grack is a town player this game. Hapa why does shockeyy make this post if he is mafia with Grackaroni?
I do not build associations between early game scumreads. I lynch scummy people. Obviously if we lynch Grack and he flips mafia, then Shockeyy looks better.
On November 26 2020 01:14 Trfel wrote:
Hapahauli, can I ask why you think ShoCkeyy is less interested than normal? To me, in terms of the amount of substance/reads, he seems very typical to me. Or does it have to do with non-substance posting?
I think you are correct. Reading through his past games (particularly his scum game in Holy Guardians 2), he was doling out early game reads and attempting to contribute as mafia.
My sense from his play this game is that he's more likely to be 3p or town.
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I still think Grack is mafia, although most others do not seem very receptive to it. I cannot say more than I already have had on it.
I would be OK with lynching TT. It is more of a pure lurker policy lynch thing though. And it is the path of least resistance. Which annoys me, but is not a D1 disaster.
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On November 26 2020 02:25 Grackaroni wrote:
Have you read any of my games?
Yes, I read a lot of them in Aperture. I will probably read them again. I was unable to draw any concrete conclusions from them. I am conscious of the fact that I did horribly misread you in all of Aperture, seemingly due to how "reactive" your playstyle is.
This game... you are this mix of pro-active (campaign) followed by re-active (not much in the way of reads). It is this dissonance that I think makes you mafia.
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Two reasons:
1) I forgot that there are OOC reasons for which Shockeyy could be less active (newborn);
2) I went back and read both Holy Guardians 2 and his more recent town games (Aperture, Cop 2, etc.) and reviewed his early game play in those games compared to this one. I for some reason had in my mind that he was much more active and engaged in his town games. That was simply not the case. And even in his scum-game, he was much more engaged than I remembered. The conclusion is that is inactivity is a null-tell. I would also feel that scum would be a bit more pressured to at least try to keep up appearances.
Also, it is incorrect that I "figured out" shockeyy at the end of Holy Guardians. That was actually Trfel, and I was largely influenced by his posting in the endgame. So naturally, I do listen and keep an open mind when he says something about Shockeyy's alignment.
Regarding TT, he was not on my lynch list, because I prefer lynching scummy people rather than lurkers. At this point, I am left with 1 person I believe is mafia, but no one seems to agree with my read. Pragmatically, I would prefer to lynch the Lurker as option 2, and I am merely stating my preference.
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On November 26 2020 02:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Okay so why is FF not mafia, Hapa?
He could be.
Points for "mafia-FF" is that he is relatively inactive and that his only contribution is a relatively useless list post:
On November 26 2020 02:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
Ray jock vivax slam are my towns
The simple fact that many people want TT dead is troubling but TT only wants me dead so that's not much to help me change my mind on tt
I think jock is towny based on tone and effort but I am aware he's a capable scum player. This is me hedging my town read incase of future embarrassment
I honestly don't know at all what shockeyy has said or done but I'm going to continue scumleaning him for fun
My grack read was kneejerk based on the mayoral candidacy at the start. I have not revisited
I could probably make this post have a point or anything of substance but I'd rather not
Point against is well... he doesn't actually give a shit about how he is perceived (see last line of post). That tends to come from town.
All and all, I am still wrestling with his filter and cannot draw any concrete conclusions.
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To be clear, I do not trust Rayn enough for him to be Mayor.
His new playstyle has a plausible explanation. Don't get me wrong. But I have doubt, and I do not want any doubt about the town mayor. As for my doubt: I can understand how there is less "rage" in his game, and that is not an inherently mafia-oriented thing. But he is not pushing the game forward in the way I would expect him to as town. Rayn is hyper paranoid, stubborn, and a bit of a "steamroller" in his typical town games. His mafia games have some of those traits, but in my experience, they are more toned down.
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EPT
