|
Anyway, I believe both claims right now. No reason not to really, setup looks fine to me and Calix is the lynch after HF regardless if she claims or not.
If we do that we only lose if mafia is exactly Calix+rayn which i don't find very likely cuz of how embarrassed Calix looked after her ragepush on rayn was dismissed so rapidly.
I think following is trademark HF scumtell, he faked it well on eod1 though I'll give him credit.
On April 14 2018 05:21 Skynx wrote:
HF having no townreads while not shouting at everyone in thread to stop being terrible was already indicative.
|
On April 14 2018 06:06 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am running a scenario where exo is mafia with vivax and calix. If his claim is believed town auto loses the game and he basically saves his team as those three are the most wanted lynches today.
But i dont know if that team makes sense. I have to check but its not going to happen until tomorrow morning when i am off work.
In that case i think he'd be bussing Calix right from the gate here and saddle the credit to victory.
|
On April 14 2018 06:08 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 06:02 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 05:56 Holyflare wrote:On April 14 2018 05:51 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 05:47 Holyflare wrote:On April 14 2018 05:40 Skynx wrote:
HF, would you as mafia prefer to have a vigshot for free or not. Pretty obvvious he wasn't rb'd. I would have assumed the gun was going to me and not rayn and not rb'd Eversince since that's what we decided and even made polls about. Rayn has confirmed he doesn't have a gun so if you think he's town then mafia blocked Eversince. If you think he's mafia then I also think they would have assumed it went to me. I have to check back to see if ES declared it openly before n1 flip. I'd assume so cuz everyone asked rayn if he had the gun. I don't think more than 3 ppl noticed your poll. Nah I've read it she said it way before deadline was giving to rayn. Rayn could actually have a gun. I don't think he does though because he's right that he pointed out he didn't and Eversince could just cc if she didn't have a gun. Then wtf are you doing right now not screaming town to lynch rayn? If you're town that means rayn is mafia with a gun and game is over if we lynch you... No it doesn't?
6-3 right now. 5-3 with lynch, 3-3 with nk + vigshot.
??
|
Lol we caught scumflare I'm proud.
|
On April 14 2018 06:14 Holyflare wrote:
Why do you also believe exo your biggest scum read?
I don't see a scenario here where he fakeclaims as scum.
|
|
|
On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl
lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds?
Framer+Miller
Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1
rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15
Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf
Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf
|
Bah Tubesock is full tinfoil mode and homeless is mafia.
It's not too bad actually, if rayn and Oats are sane we should still have the lynch.
|
On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers
I don't think even kush can get this high.
First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red.
9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster.
|
I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH.
|
On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time
You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second.
|
On April 14 2018 18:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll make that simpler for your soft brain.
WE HAVE UNCC'D DIFFERENT CHECK. ONE OF THEM IS RED. 60% CHANCE THAT RED IS REAL MAFIA = LYNCH. you realize that the probability that one of them is scum and the probability that the check was true are two different things right i have no idea what this 60% number youre talking about even means cause your math makes no sense.
60% is the credibility of the redcheck in worstcase scenario with a miller and framer.
Exo had 1 red and 1 green. Green being fake is irrelevant cuz he'd be mafia too and we means we lynch him.
red check happens only 5 times, 3 mafia and 2 alignment changing mechanics. 3/5 is the times red check is legit.
|
Like i have no idea what you're thinking with "50% chance one of them is miller".
|
|
|
On April 14 2018 18:18 currentlyhomeless wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2018 18:12 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 18:07 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 18:01 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 17:55 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 17:48 Skynx wrote:On April 14 2018 15:09 currentlyhomeless wrote:On April 14 2018 13:04 ExO_ wrote:
You guys have got to be fucking kidding me. We have a check on Rayn and HF. One is scum. Yet everyone seems to have the opinion “they cant be scum because there’s got to be a miller or framer”
You’ve gotta be kidding me. Are your egos all this huge? That yours reads are so good that the check just has to be wrong in some super unlikely way or another?
Nobody has presented a compelling case for this in my opinion. And I dont believe for a second its in our interest to vote a 3rd candidate here.
Ill eat my words if there is a framer or miller, but we deserve to lose if we can’t get it together, look at Rayn, look at HF, and figure out which one is scum. what kind of compelling “case” do you expect if i think they are both town if i think they are both town one was framed or is a miller. end of story. yes the likelihood of that with nothing else happened in the game is lower but i dont need to make a case to say its more likely. just read the game, rayn has been trying hard especially recently to figure out the game with me and had very good posts. for example theres no way as scum that he would point out where credit is due when i found something on ever (unless he was scum trying to set me up to die? but i dont get this impression at all) hf is an asshole at times but a lot of the things he has said only make sense from town perspective. most of his townreads seem logical now even if it takes him a while to get there therefore both town, reads > unreliable blue checks i am more than 70% sure that they are both town and the check is nowhere near 70-80% certainty that one is scum because if there is a framer in this game literally the best targets are rayn and hf. if there is a framer in the game, like 90%+ certainty one of those 2 gets framed regardless of alignment. unless they are the framer themselves lol as for miller, let’s say there is one miller and what. 5 vts? 6 vts? 3 scum + miller + 3 blues = 7, 13 - 7 = 6 so miller & 6 VTs. 3 VTs already flipped so remaining non blues are 3 VTs and miller so if they are both town, chance that one of them is miller is 50% rofl lol currentlyclueless, where do you get your fucking odds? Framer+Miller Rayn is framed/miller, hf is green: 2/12*6/10=0.1 rayn is green, hf is f/m: 9/12*2/10=0.15 Even assuming framer+miller odds of correct redcheck is still 60% which means we should lynch one of rayn/hf Assuming there is a gf, both of them are mafia so still lynch one of rayn/hf wow you mustve failed math, reading, or both 50% is the chance one of them is a miller given that both rayn and HF are town. in other words if they are both town, the check is a coinflip between returning “same” and “different” who the fuck knows why you are dividing by 12 when there are only 9 people alive, or why your two fucking symmetric situations have different numbers I don't think even kush can get this high. First statement is complete bollocks. Bolded is just a fucking assumption and nothing more. There is a different check: so one of them is different alignment to the other with 5 mechanics assumed= 3 mafia, 1 frame, 1 miller = 40% chance of fake red. 9 ppl alive means jack shit, odds are taken when the checks take place. Pls go back to your corner near the dumpster. holy shit you did fail math https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probabilitythere are 9 people left in the game. 3 people are scum. you’re telling me the probability RIGHT NOW that any one player is scum independently is 3/12?? why would you even divide by 12 there are fucking 13 players total anyway the math is pretty fucking easy. there are 9 players. 2 are claimed blues. 3 are scum. that leaves 4 townies unaccounted for. assuming there are no more blues, if there is a miller in the game then the chance that any one of those 4 is a miller is 25% if you pick any pair and ask if there’s a miller in the pair it’s 4 choose 2 = 6 pairs. of those 6 pairs 3 have a miller in them so even they are both town the check returns “different” 50% pf the time You're doubting the credibility of the checks. How many ppl are alive is entirely irrelevant. 12 ppl alive for 1st check, 10 for second. holy fuckballs we are talking about millers, a miller is a fucking role if there is a miller, when someone flips NONMILLER the chance of everyone else being a miller goes up. not fucking rocket science. this is why the number of people alive mayters if you have 4 townies and 1 miller, if you checked a townie n1 it was a 20% chance they were a miller after 3 of the townies die and flip VT the chance is now 50% you checked a miller because 3 fucking VTs flipped. and obviously if the miller flips the chance is 0. the chance doesn’t magically stay 20% because that’s how many players were alive when you checked jesus
yeah i fucked up sry
still 1/4 tho?
|
But whatever we lost anyway.
|
Yeh, my level of care has gone down to zero. Enjoy your lynch, worst town I've seen in a while.
|
|
|
No one is killing you relax
|
Hard claiming Donald Trump. I win with town. Used my 1-shot power last night. It read as "for next 48 hours everyone will have tin foils forced on their skull and have their vision clouded. Complete and utter witblock, no one will be making any sense whatsoever and HF the mafia will be victorious once more."
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
