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On March 12 2018 09:01 Holyflare wrote:
Too tired to think tbh. I think it's just vivax trying to stir confusion. Even now he's saying he might not have healed moosy or some shit and he went right off the bat to df/rsoul team.
Bit farfetched if you ask me. Looks like mafia scrambling and possibly trying to set up moosy as a "he's not dead" play.
Eh I'm not sure what the end-game is for a Viva claiming a Moosy heal when everyone else is on koshi, though. It assumes scum forgoing a kill just to be confusing.
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##unvote
I'm fine with looking to VTs instead.
And now I really should go @.@
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Moosy/nk
I need to check their interactions because this is sleepy memory but I think they've both pushed each other where it doesn't matter. And nk should want a moosy of he can't get an hf given his reads unless I missed/am misremembering something.
Viva could be playing dumb or reckless scum but that's strange for me.
Slam is still adorable. HF is energized. And I didn't like nk's reaction to the night actions.
Posting to remind myself where 2am brain went.
Going out with lex tomorrow which is probably good for reducing spam @.@ Will definitely be around Tuesday though.
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So my thoughts regarding Viva are as follows:
If scum he has to know that Moosy won't die. Nk and df both make it clear they're healing koshi and there's no reason to believe ff will move either. His only play there is to push the narrative that moosy didnt die because he is scum.
But there's nothing in my mind to prevent a town viva from parking on moosy to try to confirm a read.
And what's more, I'm not sure that scum viva skating by on his medic claim until we catch the mafia claiming vt makes that type of risky play when he can just sit safely on town koshi rather than agitating everyone with his stubborn.
This is obviously WIFOM and trying to guess what a scum viva would do.
BUT, and this is the important but here
VIVA IS NOT CONFIRMED SCUM.
The fact that moosy COULD be scum and (although I'll admit I've no idea if hosts would take a medic shot change from a mafia goon or for sure if it was the medic who claimed medic) ff COULD have just genuinely not been around to change a kill, means that
The LAST thing that should happen today is an auto lynch. Because if viva is town, which by the way is a very real possibility, y'all are wasting a Day phase after we gained an awesome advantage and letting scum hide.
I will be gone most of the first half of the day phase, and in and put the second half.
I expect discussion, even if the end result is everyone thinks viva is scummy and worth lynching anyway.
But no confirmed mafia rhetoric when that's simply not true.
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Yeah, but it took my brain that long to wake up and the thread's been pretty dead since @.@ I was hoping to see more talk when I woke.
Also I don't think slam has much chance to be mafia this game.
Nh.
Well I see a possibility where all three of us die but we get a scum viva in the process.
I think that it won't narrow your scumspects between ff/noob though.
So then I just question why you wouldn't simply lynch viva.
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I.e. I don't think it actually gets us more information because a noob or an ff scum can't deviate from the plan without revealing themselves. And your plan should kill viva anyway unless ff is a tard.
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On March 12 2018 08:43 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2018 08:41 rsoultin wrote:
See the thing is, Viva sitting on Moosy as scum doesn't make much sense unless they're scum together. And the buss doesn't make much more sense, either. You don't know if I was sitting on Moosy though. I could have been doccing anyone while claiming to have been on moosy and given the blame to whoever else was claiming to heal him with me.I don't know where your town bias towards me is coming from here.
This is technically correct if you ignore no one was claiming to heal him with you.
But I don't think that I fully understand the point that you're trying to make. Are you questioning why I think you could be town? Because I don't think I'm biased in favor of you at all. I just don't like the idea of auto lynches on someone who isn't confirmed anything, where if you're town scum can just hide in the silence.
So what did you mean with this post?
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On March 12 2018 19:26 Holyflare wrote:
What situation does everyone die?
Viva scum.
df/ff kill viva
viva (or scummate) moves off df to double-stack on me
mafia shoots df because he's not protected
You get a scum viva. And two confirmed town dead.
Which isn't necessarily awful but since the chances of getting info out of the strat are low (barring stupid mafia play) if it's not viva, why not just lynch him then?
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On March 12 2018 19:46 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2018 19:38 rsoultin wrote:On March 12 2018 19:26 Holyflare wrote:
What situation does everyone die? Viva scum. df/ff kill viva viva (or scummate) moves off df to double-stack on me mafia shoots df because he's not protected You get a scum viva. And two confirmed town dead. Which isn't necessarily awful but since the chances of getting info out of the strat are low (barring stupid mafia play) if it's not viva, why not just lynch him then? Eh tis true but the alternative is everyone stacking on one vt pool player and if it's town we lose two people anyway and have 0 confirmed medics still. This way we can confirm in the medic pool. If we hit vivax and he's actually medic then the medics can heal each other next night too.
Again this only works with viva being scum, so -shrugs-
That's a long post to call me bad, noob, lol ><
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On March 12 2018 19:49 Holyflare wrote:
Alternatively we do df/ff on a vt player like moosy, vivax on rsoul, nk on df.
We narrow down the vt pool that way and if a medic wants to shenanigan they confirm themselves mafia.
This enables us to narrow down vt pool and simultaneously control the mafia nk while trying to preserve our medics.
I'd have to think about it but honestly I'd rather discuss who we're lynching. I don't want to lynch slam.
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On March 12 2018 19:59 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2018 19:58 rsoultin wrote:On March 12 2018 19:49 Holyflare wrote:
Alternatively we do df/ff on a vt player like moosy, vivax on rsoul, nk on df.
We narrow down the vt pool that way and if a medic wants to shenanigan they confirm themselves mafia.
This enables us to narrow down vt pool and simultaneously control the mafia nk while trying to preserve our medics. I'd have to think about it but honestly I'd rather discuss who we're lynching. I don't want to lynch slam. Well I'm VT so if you have any qualms just get it out of the way. No way I'd actively try and find the best nk strategy to gimp my team instead of pushing a mislynch right now.
If we're lynching into VTs I think I'd prefer moosy, gun to my head. I'd lynch you over slam though, just to be clear. I don't trust myself to be right on you.
Slam is just so completely directionless that I have trouble seeing him as scum here. Just look at how he posted this Day phase.
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There's just this constant 'I don't understand the setup' stuff coming from Moosy that I don't care for. I saw it in his scum games when I was going through them yesterday to check Noob's meta claims. Though tbf that's one of the things on my list to double-check with him tomorrow when I have more time, because I haven't confirmed that that's alignment indicative.
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Okay, well I can see myself lynching Viva today even if it's against the 'ideal' best play if I'm just super sure. So I'm also not suggesting that we definitely lynch into the VTs  I have no qualms whatsoever with people pushing Vivax as a legitimate scum target.
Sorry about being too preemptive for those of you trying to get reads off Viva. It's just that my personal experience is that, scum or town, a lot of players roll over and die when it looks hopeless so I prefer to let people know that at least someone's willing to listen.
I'm headed out for the day now.
Let me just requote my question to Vivax, and someone press him for an answer to it, please?
On March 12 2018 19:35 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 12 2018 08:43 Vivax wrote:On March 12 2018 08:41 rsoultin wrote:
See the thing is, Viva sitting on Moosy as scum doesn't make much sense unless they're scum together. And the buss doesn't make much more sense, either. You don't know if I was sitting on Moosy though. I could have been doccing anyone while claiming to have been on moosy and given the blame to whoever else was claiming to heal him with me.I don't know where your town bias towards me is coming from here. This is technically correct if you ignore no one was claiming to heal him with you. But I don't think that I fully understand the point that you're trying to make. Are you questioning why I think you could be town? Because I don't think I'm biased in favor of you at all. I just don't like the idea of auto lynches on someone who isn't confirmed anything, where if you're town scum can just hide in the silence. So what did you mean with this post?
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Not really here for discussion but it seems I should vote lol ><
##vote: moosy
We're just about to go to bed.
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The short answer to your question nk is that moosy didn't die. That makes him or viva mafia...possibly both but that last seems less likely to me.
We can argue that scum shot him and not me. Unlikely with viva's claim to be on him.
We can argue that trying to shoot me makes my push against hf correct. That's not my experience. I get nk'd right or wrong, and when I was the only vt no one was discussing lynching? It was almost inevitable.
You repeatedly refuse to hear that HF does the things that you claim make him scum as town. That's okay in a sense cause I'd do that too if I'd convinced myself he were scum.
I like his play today. It seems like he was energized by the favorable n2 results.
I won't lynch viva unless very sure and I actually think one of his reaction posts to being called scum was pretty towny.
I'll refine my read on moosy today. And I agree that he's bad with setups regardless. I'm the one who caught rels when no one else could. But I have a theory that I want to test against the evidence. Because being bad with setups is not the same as using it as an excuse to hide behind so he doesn't have to discuss it.
Anyway, we'll see how that pans out. Hopefully before I leave for Dutch classes today.
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On March 13 2018 17:46 Holyflare wrote:
Ah that's right. A moosy lynch reveals so much info. If he's mafia it's not likely vivax is. If he's town it does.
Also strange nk doesn't want to go after his second biggest scum read and instead was trying to prep him to lynch me maybe?
This is admittedly something that went through my mind at 2am right after the phase started.
Well! Time for research @.@
Anyone who wants to talk has me for about two hours before I turn into a pumpkin. I'll probably have 2-3 before deadline as well, Definitely will try to be on the last hour.
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The constant arguing is getting old, noob. In other news, ctrl-F methods of finding patterns with moosy aren't working, meriting a deeper dive @.@
You won't convince HF he's scum. And no matter how much it's better play to actually read others' posts, I really can't be assed to read the back and forth that is just "NO NO NO YOU ARE WRONG YOU ARE SCUM" that you seem to post to everything he says.
If you want to be convincing a few things must happen:
- condense your points into something easily double-checked like this
- consider alternative scenarios
- present why you still think yours is correct (if you do)
- stop arguing with your scumread if you don't think he could be town*
*frankly, I've no clue what you think you're accomplishing with this, because if you are trying to refine your read it's apparent you're not even considering how you might be wrong. and if you're not, it's pointless
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On March 13 2018 19:09 darthfoley wrote:
Idk, it seems surface level obvious that the teams are something like
NK/Moosy
Vivax/HF
Maybe Vivax/Moosy if they were trying to distance. Would still be quite a risky play though considering one of the "3" medics on koshi could've cowboyed back onto Moosy.
I think i'm fine lynching Moosy --> HF and if Slam is scum we can laugh about it post game. If Moosy flips town, Vivax and HF look pretty bad.
This is kinda where I'm at, though I would like to note that FF could fairly easily be scum here, especially with a scum moosy. It's just fairly impossible to tell with how he's decided to just fuck off this game.
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On March 13 2018 19:11 darthfoley wrote:
If the team is FF/Slam i'm going to commit seppuku
My feels say moosy. I'm trying to see if those feels should be listened to, but I'm not really feeling an hf lynch, not even enough to really be tempted to fear lynch him. Which maybe makes me bad, but whatevs.
FF/Slam is possible, but I still think that there's something pretty reactive and aimless about Slam's play that doesn't strike me as mafia-motivated.
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I explained what I will respond to. From what I see you're not really convincing anyone else either. If you want to choose to continue to beat your head against a wall, that's your prerogative (not sure if I spelled that right lol ><)
I will not argue with you because I have better things to do.
#confirmedtown
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EPT
