EPT[M][N] Vendée Globe 16' Mafia - Page 3
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 I don't really feel like mderg was playing to survive there. At least not with the darthfoley push. I feel like if mderg was strongly trying to get a new wagon going, he would have at least quoted some reasons or asked for support or something. It felt like he was resigned to his fate. To that end, voting analysis would suggest that rsoultin is town. It's just not a good play to be perfectly set up for a double bus and go for a double stupid instead. Still sorta reading up but let me know if you want to talk about anything  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Not impressed by disformation's posts to this point. He was following the game before the flip, he said as much. Which means that if he is mafia, he was reading the game and trying to analyze it before getting his role PM. Absolutely nothing prevents him from sharing most or all of his (honestly generated) thoughts as mafia here. It'll take a bit of time to be able to read him, I think. That said, hi disformation, good to play with you again I don't really think that End of Day makes prplhz town. That means that he was here to have the chance to change his vote and didn't do it. So if you're saying that he's town, then you're saying that he was town and saw a close lynch while he's townreading rsoultin and didn't bother to vote onto a wagon? To me it's more likely that he wasn't here, or that if he was here he didn't know what to do/didn't care enough. Feels very non alignment indicative to me. I'm still slightly leaning town on prplhz for other reasons (here and here, though the second does rely on me being right that rsoultin is town), but he's just done so freaking little. So I guess the only real suspect for me is darthfoley. Rsoultin, you really think that Conversion is mafia here? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
We've been having scarily similar reads all game, except now you're scumreading one of my strongest townreads... Like is it just the explosion? Or is there more to it? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 I guess I'm pretty confident that Conversion is town. Emotional outburst aside even. I don't think it's suspicious of him at all at end of day. If he's mafia, why would he set himself up for a switch into mderg, and then stay the course on rsoultin even when it's not looking good? And again, mderg wasn't trying to survive, he was giving up. It doesn't make sense for mderg and Conversion to be a team here; Conversion wouldn't try to save an mderg who wasn't trying to save himself. There's more to it than that, his reads themselves I feel show actual desire to solve the game and good thinking. He seems invested in his reads and the lynches and is willing to interact with others to help solve the game together. Some of the stuff he says is ridiculously suspicious (like saying he needs to read his own filter more carefully) but I don't think that's significant because mafia wouldn't be inclined to say that either. I don't have much reason to lynch him and I have plenty of reasons to townread him. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 08 2018 17:24 rsoultin wrote: Wait you're right mderg was town last game >< All the same I stand by it. Post #717 (list post thing) is where he says mderg looked the same as his town game, but #719 and #780 could have led to a read flip IMO. Hm, looking deeper...Nh. Idk I find the outburst hard to get past. I hear you on why not mderg, but the other part is hed just gone to the trouble of saying that this looked like mderg's town game. Could be he didn't know how to shift his read, especially given I don't think he ever had a reason to townread me. Seems he committed to staying on rsoultin at about the same time mderg switched his vote from rsoultin to darthfoley. However, mderg said "I think my rsoultin scumread may actually be stupid here" 13 minutes previously. That's a huge, huge, huge miscommunication if they're mafia together. And if mafia was really trying to keep mderg alive, they could have asked mderg to vote to save himself; no one can ever be blamed for voting to save themself. I stand by the read. Like, if they're mafia together, then Conversion did set himself up for either voting mderg or rsoultin. He still went the opposite direction as mderg did. That's not a result of not knowing how to switch, that would only be the result of an incredible mafia team breakdown that I don't think is likely at all (much less something to scumread Conversion over). | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 09 2018 00:22 raynpelikoneet wrote: This is actually super funny ^^Idk whish is worse, disfo asking a guy who gave 3 scumreads when 2 mafia left who is his 4th scumread or conversion actually answering it.... | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 09 2018 01:23 Holyflare wrote: This is a very good point.Damdred is mafia for this whole post. You don't have the mderg wagon being full of pure people but simultaneously think both wagons were mafia. My vote absolutely looks like credit grabbing in that world. I had a case on rsoul and voted the leading wagon? Nah Don't buy it at all. Damdred is my lynch. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Correct me if I am missing something but going into EoD you were kinda townreading rsoultin and suspicious of mderg. Then both rsoultin and mderg did similar plays (not voting each other to save themselves). This caused you to not want to lynch mderg but vote for rsoultin instead, correct? I saw that you said that this is because rsoultin wasn't in actual danger while mderg actually was. The question is really why do you say that? Mderg was only leading rsoultin by one vote with people still to vote and no one would have blamed mderg for switching back. I don't see why rsoultin wasn't in danger there. Second question, I may have missed this, but what is it that makes you think the mderg voters are all pure? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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