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On August 16 2017 13:07 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 16 2017 13:00 Jealous wrote:
In* that was the perfect time for autocorrect to fuck me. What do you think of Conversion? Side track, I know.
Earlier on I didn't like his play. I would have to look at the filter to point out specifically what. Later on I started to like his play more despite not agreeing with the things he was saying/concluding. I'll go into more detail on him tomorrow after FF/H1. I honestly probably won't have time to do any of that because exam is in 12 hours and I still have to study and sleep so after the exam I will have about 2 hours to at least do FF/H1 before the cycle ends and then I can do Conversion after that. Stay tuned! Sorry for the lack of paint and my upcoming brief absence.
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Quick catch-up post:
1. @conversion: Cop couldn't be in the lynch pool, please familiarize yourself with the game because this was a major point in the early hours of phase 1 to the point where Artanis had to step in.
2. @HF: Looking at your progression throughout the game through memory, it looks a lot like this: spend the majority of your time antagonizing rayn which becomes the main topic of conversation for many hours and gets heated and likely contributed to him being in the lynch pool, throw in some okayish reads on other people but don't discuss them much (until recently), then claim to have vig shot and to have shot rayn while also claiming that he is townlock which effectively "made him quit" and ushered in a decent period of silence from everyone, then come back and judge people for still voting for rayn. There are different ways to interpret this:
1. That you were in fact in the heat of the moment and kicked in the door guns blazing and have cooled off, and that Artanis' post does in your mind town lock rayn, and that you genuinely do think the vote should be on one of FF/H1.
2. You almost singlehandedly sparked into motion a series of events which led to approximately 36 hours of almost no one doing anything not - rayn related, or at least not close to what it would be if you hadn't launched your endless assault. Then you tell people to not vote rayn.
I can see 1. I can also kinda see 2, but if the ends is confirming one town (in your mind) and simultaneously killing their motivation to play, I don't know how much I like that. My wariness is rising and I'm not going to take my vote off rayn just because you said so. I want to see this chapter closed and see what the outcome is without a doubt so that there are no lingering questions. It would be a marvelous scum performance if it was MvM, perhaps overplayed but I can't let the possibility of that go. Ultimately, while I don't think the judges are infallible, they did nominate rayn so as you said earlier, I feel justified.
Also, heavy misrepresentation on your part when you say I have all 50/50 reads. I said that H1 and geript are hard town for me. I said that Damdred is scum lean. I said that rayn townlean. Please no misrep. Also curious how I moved down your list in towniness with no input on my part, after you said that my vote for you was the "towniest thing ever" but I can understand the wifom involved in that as well (I was curious why no one other than you said anything about it and you viewed it so purely positively... that's a topic for another discussion. For the record I just couldn't risk it going to CopCake).
3.@geript: Thank you!
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On August 17 2017 00:29 CopCake wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 00:27 Hopeless1der wrote:On August 17 2017 00:19 CopCake wrote:
Tbh hopeless asked me several random things like why is he a duck or why you are fish What's your point? You asked jealous if hes from russia. Nothing, I am just angry/salty that I have been answering all the fucking questions but "I do nothing" then people should stop to ask me silly questions. Be in my place and notice how frustrating it is.
You have to be pushing the game forward of your own volition, not merely sitting and waiting for people to notice you and ask you questions. Maybe then people will say that you have done something, or you could have a better filter to fall back on. Simply sitting back, only providing the minimum asked, and claiming to be forgetful while not looking at filters are all bad play if not at least slightly scummy.
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On August 17 2017 00:40 Conversion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 00:39 Jealous wrote:
Quick catch-up post:
1. @conversion: Cop couldn't be in the lynch pool, please familiarize yourself with the game because this was a major point in the early hours of phase 1 to the point where Artanis had to step in.
2. @HF: Looking at your progression throughout the game through memory, it looks a lot like this: spend the majority of your time antagonizing rayn which becomes the main topic of conversation for many hours and gets heated and likely contributed to him being in the lynch pool, throw in some okayish reads on other people but don't discuss them much (until recently), then claim to have vig shot and to have shot rayn while also claiming that he is townlock which effectively "made him quit" and ushered in a decent period of silence from everyone, then come back and judge people for still voting for rayn. There are different ways to interpret this:
1. That you were in fact in the heat of the moment and kicked in the door guns blazing and have cooled off, and that Artanis' post does in your mind town lock rayn, and that you genuinely do think the vote should be on one of FF/H1.
2. You almost singlehandedly sparked into motion a series of events which led to approximately 36 hours of almost no one doing anything not - rayn related, or at least not close to what it would be if you hadn't launched your endless assault. Then you tell people to not vote rayn.
I can see 1. I can also kinda see 2, but if the ends is confirming one town (in your mind) and simultaneously killing their motivation to play, I don't know how much I like that. My wariness is rising and I'm not going to take my vote off rayn just because you said so. I want to see this chapter closed and see what the outcome is without a doubt so that there are no lingering questions. It would be a marvelous scum performance if it was MvM, perhaps overplayed but I can't let the possibility of that go. Ultimately, while I don't think the judges are infallible, they did nominate rayn so as you said earlier, I feel justified.
Also, heavy misrepresentation on your part when you say I have all 50/50 reads. I said that H1 and geript are hard town for me. I said that Damdred is scum lean. I said that rayn townlean. Please no misrep. Also curious how I moved down your list in towniness with no input on my part, after you said that my vote for you was the "towniest thing ever" but I can understand the wifom involved in that as well (I was curious why no one other than you said anything about it and you viewed it so purely positively... that's a topic for another discussion. For the record I just couldn't risk it going to CopCake).
3.@geript: Thank you! wut I was saying they could have left cop not as a winner and put her in the pool. No need to spout mechanics arguments when it was overall frustration at the current pool
My bad! Misunderstood.
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On August 17 2017 00:46 Conversion wrote:
anyways sorry I sounded a bit more aggressive than I wanted to
regardless! jealous, cop, and FF what are your thoughts on rayn trying to get removed/replaced and saying that in the thread? do you think that's a scum play (in which case HF looks suspect for giving him a town pass based on that)
as much as I got into an over the line argument with rayn, and dislike his play in this game, I don't see that being a good mafia play.. like normally you'd get modkilled for stuff like that, no? or is he pushing the boundaries of what he can fake because he can't be modkilled.. hm
I don't like the whole situation and I don't like how it affected the game, in terms of focus over time and the resultant lull and how HF is construing it as if he was in the right the entire time and continues to be so. Not enough for me to give a scum read on HF but it's enough for me to stay on rayn for the lynch just to be certain. The whole "I got a gun and I shot rayn! But he's town! *~12 hours later* Okay I unhook rayn, take your votes off him!" is just a Rollercoaster I did not like.
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On August 17 2017 00:47 CopCake wrote:
Also anyone else finds strange that HF pretty much forced people to vote for him for a vest/gun but neither myself nor jelaous did?
Not really. I think him as the type to do so regardless of allignment.
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On August 17 2017 00:47 Conversion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 00:43 Jealous wrote:On August 17 2017 00:29 CopCake wrote:On August 17 2017 00:27 Hopeless1der wrote:On August 17 2017 00:19 CopCake wrote:
Tbh hopeless asked me several random things like why is he a duck or why you are fish What's your point? You asked jealous if hes from russia. Nothing, I am just angry/salty that I have been answering all the fucking questions but "I do nothing" then people should stop to ask me silly questions. Be in my place and notice how frustrating it is. You have to be pushing the game forward of your own volition, not merely sitting and waiting for people to notice you and ask you questions. Maybe then people will say that you have done something, or you could have a better filter to fall back on. Simply sitting back, only providing the minimum asked, and claiming to be forgetful while not looking at filters are all bad play if not at least slightly scummy. agreed
Also I'm getting tired of the emotional appeals that lack substance in the face of reality.
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Something came up - won't be back until evening. Sorry all.
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I just had the thought that HF pretty much has to be town. Follow me here:
HF gets the power role and claims he got the vig shot. If the judges didn't in fact give him the vig shot, would they not show this by not nominating him for the next PR cycle and then putting him in the scum bucket after that? It would be the clearest indication that HF is lying and deceiving everyone.
The only fault with this logic that I can see is that HF could be drawing attention to himself for having the vig shot intentionally, so that judges can award it to someone else who would potentially be free from scrutiny I guess? That would be an interesting play as well; but one that could only be done from a town persective imo.
Am I completely off base here?
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Alright, let me try to approach this again in a different way in a couple minutes. I am pretty sure I am onto something here that might end in wifom but it's a worthwhile analysis and I don't think I explained it well enough. I left some stuff out above. MS Paint to the rescue.
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On August 17 2017 11:45 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 11:03 Jealous wrote:
I just had the thought that HF pretty much has to be town. Follow me here:
HF gets the power role and claims he got the vig shot. If the judges didn't in fact give him the vig shot, would they not show this by not nominating him for the next PR cycle and then putting him in the scum bucket after that? It would be the clearest indication that HF is lying and deceiving everyone.
The only fault with this logic that I can see is that HF could be drawing attention to himself for having the vig shot intentionally, so that judges can award it to someone else who would potentially be free from scrutiny I guess? That would be an interesting play as well; but one that could only be done from a town persective imo.
Am I completely off base here? You are completely off base for thinking "vig claim could = scum". I did it. Granted it was in terms of "when I get my gun" as opposed to "I shot you already", but still...
Wha...?
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Nevermind, paint got too complicated once I realized all of the contingencies and the limitations of TL's textbox. Let's look at it from the judge's perspective.
HF Claims he has the vig shot
Possible Scenarios
1. HF is town and has the vig shot. T+V
2. HF is scum and has the vig shot. S+V
3. HF is town and doesn't have the vig shot. T-V
4. HF is scum and doesn't have the vig shot. S-V
1. T+V. Let's assume this as the baseline, as this is what I imagine the judges would hypothetically be going for.
It would only make sense for T+V to claim in this scenario. The vig shot could almost never be used as a bargaining chip to appeal when up for lynch, because that would indicate that the judges had chosen someone to give it to then changed their minds about whether that person is townie or not and put them in the lynch pile. Wouldn't make sense.
2. S+V This is the worst-case scenario, the one that I overlooked in the previous analysis.
If S+V claims, then that would just be a bad/dumb move. It would be much more effective to save it and use it if suspicion ever DID fall on them from the judges and they thought they were going to lose the lynch vote, or if the game gets to the point where the judges are no longer present.
3. T-V. This would mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V.
This would only make sense if he was trying to put all the attention on himself, so that the judges could give the shot to someone else who would be under less scrutiny. This would also likely force scum to use a RB on him, as he currently has vest and with the shot in tow, it is a bad position for scum. However, I think that this is still not a very good play, as it would assume that the judges don't scumread him for the move, and it would assume that when the vig shot is actually given out there is likely to be a legitimacy argument which would be counter-productive. I don't think this possibility makes much sense. If the judges did scumread him for the move it would look like this:
4. S-V This would also mean that HF is intentionally misleading everyone in the game, EXCEPT the judges who already know that he doesn't have the V, and of course excluding his scummates.
This wouldn't make much sense to do because then the judges could just indicate that it is false by not including HF in the "Top 3" vote in the next cycle, effectively showing that "we don't care if this guy gets a vest or not because he is lying." That will show to everyone to stop listening to HF, and then he will be in the lynch pile the next cycle.
---
In short, I don't find any situation in which it makes sense for scum HF to claim; I also think that the move for town HF to claim without actually having it would be too much of a gamble. QED, HF is town and has the shot.
It was pretty hard for me to explain myself throughout all of this. If you disagree with my conclusions, please share your counterarguments because I could easily have just confused myself while thinking of the possibilities and interactions.
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On August 17 2017 12:33 geript wrote:@Jealous Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 11:08 geript wrote:
Like you just gotta accept that HF is a liar regardless of his alignment. You have to read him on what he's trying to do; like what his goal this game is. Who he pushes is kinda relevant, but it's also what he lets go of. QFT. Literally just ignore HF claiming a gun because it's totally irrelevant. Go do something useful.
Did you just quote yourself and QFT? Lol. There's a first for everything xD Not a dig on you or anything, just thought it was humorous.
I don't see how it is irrelevant. Can you explain how that could be the case?
@H1: I know that the judges don't know the alignments. The division was to explain why it would be stupid for HF to claim vig as either alignment -v.
@CopCake: That's an interesting point, I didn't consider that. It's certainly possible if there was a perfect storm situation, where a townie is being heavily scumread by the town and not the judges and thus the vig shot would be justified somehow. It would still take quite a bit of finesse and I could still see people upset over it regardless of how its handled.
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On August 17 2017 12:38 CopCake wrote:
@Jelaous; what do you think of Geript's case on TW?
Looking at filters now.
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On August 17 2017 13:01 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 12:50 Jealous wrote:On August 17 2017 12:33 geript wrote:@Jealous On August 17 2017 11:08 geript wrote:
Like you just gotta accept that HF is a liar regardless of his alignment. You have to read him on what he's trying to do; like what his goal this game is. Who he pushes is kinda relevant, but it's also what he lets go of. QFT. Literally just ignore HF claiming a gun because it's totally irrelevant. Go do something useful. Did you just quote yourself and QFT? Lol. There's a first for everything xD Not a dig on you or anything, just thought it was humorous. I don't see how it is irrelevant. Can you explain how that could be the case? Pretend for a second that HF is town. I guarantee you that in 100% of cases in that situation he will claim receiving a gun. Pretend for a second that HF is scum. I guarantee you that in 100% of cases in that situation he will claim receiving a gun. I assure you that while HF may have a gun, his claiming a gun has absolutely 0 impact on his alignment. He will claim a gun whether or not he receives said gun. He will claim it (especially after winning the election). That's just him. He has a mad compunction to claim a role (any role though usually cop) on D1. Any number of us can confirm this. Everyone has their own little idiosyncracies and that's his.
I see but... wouldn't that be dumb of scum!HF? Or are you saying that because he does this so consistently, that we should just ignore it? In which case, why would anyone set such a precedent - just to have a better scum game in future games? That's deep.
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On August 17 2017 12:38 CopCake wrote:
@Jelaous; what do you think of Geript's case on TW?
Okay so first I'll explain my thought process reading the relevant posts, and I'll post a conclusion after I'm done.
Looking at this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=73#1445
Like TW upgrading his FF read is really fucking weird. It's based off of a weak town read for "Not wanting a power-up" never gets talked about and FF gets upgraded to lock town 30 minutes before the lynch.
I'm guessing the implication here is that TW was trying to appear more townie because he already knew what the outcome of lynching FF would be.
Hopeless gets a major downgrade, FF gets an upgrade, and none of this gets talked about.
One has to keep in mind that this is in response to this TW post:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 16 2017 01:35 Tumblewood wrote:
thanks euros for the 20 pages while i was sleeping
i read half of them and i think cake is the clearest town. i'm also moving 1der into weak town.
i appreciate rayn but i'm waffling on him hard. not necessarily defending himself in a townie or scummy way, just very actively.
damdred seems like town, but that said i don't know if i've ever played with scum!damdred.
Which was made four hours before the Day 1 Eliminations were posted: I also don't see any mention of FF in there.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 16 2017 05:34 rsoultin wrote:Day 1 Eliminations
Judges' least favorites: raynpelikoneet, Fecalfeast, Hopeless1der
Vote here to remove from competition
Is geript implying that TW was trying to raise H1's scum value and raise FF's townie value? I guess I can see that from a scum perspective, but I think it's NAI. Plenty of people have been giving relatively unexplained reads and changes in those reads based on vague one-liners. If every person who did that in this game was scum, there would be like 0 town players in this game lol. And again, FF was not mentioned in the post that geript was referencing.
Moving on, I agree with geript that TW's CopCake post was bad. I also called him out on it, and after a brief back-and-forth he stopped answering me on that subject in particular, here:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=53#1058
Then he picked it back up later:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=55#1090
I respond to this, and he doesn't respond once again. So yea, not a good track record. I would think that my posts would deserve at least an "Oh, ok," or something of that nature. From what I'm seeing here, I'm not seeing even that.
In response to this post by geript:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=73#1448
I do agree with geript that the timing of TW's "filter analysis" is suspect. That is something that might get missed if someone isn't careful when they look at TW's filter, especially in the short-term when it now says "8 hours ago" or whatever. So, that's a good catch and definitely more worthwhile than that other argument that centered around timing, which was just bad in all directions imo (though I appreciated the sentiment from H1).
I just don't understand why TW would claim to filter dive then come back so soon afterwards with those conclusions in a logical townie TW universe. He's not an idiot.
I also agree with geript's analysis of what TW's options were, but I feel like I'm not appreciating the full impact of that argument; what are the conclusions in this case? As in, TW is scum because... He lied about reading filters? What did he gain from this lie, if we assume that it was a 3 town lynch pool? I guess the implication would have to be that it's not a 3 town lynch pool - in which case, the narrative being pushed is that TW was trying to distance himself from H1 and buddybuddy with FF/rayn. Which means... TW + H1 team?
Conclusion: I do agree with a lot of geript's analysis; I will have to revisit my H1 read to see how much I can agree with the universe that is being created as a result, if I understood it correctly. Perhaps geript can clarify for me if my analysis of her argument is correct. I did have a strong H1 town read, but that was quite some time ago; however, I don't recall seeing anything scummy from H1 recently.
In short: Potentially plausible, need more feedback to be sure and need to do more research in the morning to confirm.
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On August 17 2017 13:14 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 13:10 Jealous wrote:On August 17 2017 13:01 geript wrote:On August 17 2017 12:50 Jealous wrote:On August 17 2017 12:33 geript wrote:@Jealous On August 17 2017 11:08 geript wrote:
Like you just gotta accept that HF is a liar regardless of his alignment. You have to read him on what he's trying to do; like what his goal this game is. Who he pushes is kinda relevant, but it's also what he lets go of. QFT. Literally just ignore HF claiming a gun because it's totally irrelevant. Go do something useful. Did you just quote yourself and QFT? Lol. There's a first for everything xD Not a dig on you or anything, just thought it was humorous. I don't see how it is irrelevant. Can you explain how that could be the case? Pretend for a second that HF is town. I guarantee you that in 100% of cases in that situation he will claim receiving a gun. Pretend for a second that HF is scum. I guarantee you that in 100% of cases in that situation he will claim receiving a gun. I assure you that while HF may have a gun, his claiming a gun has absolutely 0 impact on his alignment. He will claim a gun whether or not he receives said gun. He will claim it (especially after winning the election). That's just him. He has a mad compunction to claim a role (any role though usually cop) on D1. Any number of us can confirm this. Everyone has their own little idiosyncracies and that's his. I see but... wouldn't that be dumb of scum!HF? Or are you saying that because he does this so consistently, that we should just ignore it? In which case, why would anyone set such a precedent - just to have a better scum game in future games? That's deep. Yes, he does it so consistently it should just be ignored. Can we move on? Like readin filters and talkin about things that matter.
Thinking about the game without filters and all that was basically the only thing I could do to try and contribute in the hours when I had limited internet/computer/mobile access, hence my coming in here with that but I guess not ):
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On August 17 2017 14:30 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2017 13:53 Jealous wrote:
Conclusion: I do agree with a lot of geript's analysis; I will have to revisit my H1 read to see how much I can agree with the universe that is being created as a result, if I understood it correctly. Perhaps geript can clarify for me if my analysis of her argument is correct. I did have a strong H1 town read, but that was quite some time ago; however, I don't recall seeing anything scummy from H1 recently.
In short: Potentially plausible, need more feedback to be sure and need to do more research in the morning to confirm. I'm going to ignore the peripheral arguments and go straight to the meat. I think the argument is pretty straight forward and obvious, but since you may be town... Let me ask you this question. Let's presume that TW is town. Why would he lie about how much he's read? Like there are things you sometimes lie about as town, but for the most part as town you don't lie about anything. Town generally doesn't lie because it doesn't serve any useful purpose. More importantly, town doesn't lie about how much they have or haven't read; that actually hurts town's ability to scum hunt. The thing is if TW was town, he wouldn't lie about having read all of both filters. He wouldn't try to misrepresent how much he has done. So him lying about that itself is alignment indicative.Like there are number of other spin off arguments that can support it, but they're all icing.
Ok. I can get behind this, even though it seems almost too simple to be real. I feel like there has to be some ulterior motive beyond "make it look like I'm doing stuff," so your spin-off arguments would be interesting to hear.
I would like to hear TW's response to this.
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EPT
