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On April 11 2017 21:00 Koshi wrote:
I do not know why Rels is not the lynch tomorrow.
Sicklucker is obviously doctor, or he did an insane play to secure him lylo. In this game mafia doesn't know the setup, so if this is a vt setup he gambled on that and then gambled on not being coutnerclaimed???? Are you all dense or am I wrong about the setup? I didn't read the op.
rayn can't be mafia because while I threw the ball, he made the alley hoop. or w.e that is called. And then during night he decides to not kill anybody while he isn't sure there is a doc so he might get docsaved and then be confirmed? Even more confirmed than he already is??? Are you fuckers for real?
So everybody should have at least 3 superconfirmed townies himself included.
Who is left for me:
Rels
Tumble
btdt
df
For me the obvious choice is Rels. Didn't do shit, and just gained cred when it was cool. Go lynch that fucker.
Darthfoley played well if he is mafia. Cherry picked what he posted and made them incredible.
Tumble most likely is town. Read rayn his posts on why. He is just playing like he always plays. Weird or not understandable does NOT equal scum. Not now, not ever.
btdt is possibly mafia due to interactions with Calix and bad posts. But he is not mafia due to activity and emotions. So he is not mafia and should not be considered in the next 2 lynches. Or do we lose after 3ml? I don't know.
So lynch Rels
Then look at how clean dartholey is
Then look at how messed up Tumble and btdt are and pick one in lylo. Hopefully I am there and not sicklucker.
Also protip to btdt and tumble: Stop calling each other mafia because you don't understand the other person his playstyle. It's dumb.
My only qualm as to why Rels isn't mafia is the fact that rayn was the NK target. Like why would Rels target rayn if he's hardcore defending him. It would've made more sense to kill you or me
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On April 12 2017 01:36 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 21:00 Koshi wrote:
I do not know why Rels is not the lynch tomorrow.
Sicklucker is obviously doctor, or he did an insane play to secure him lylo. In this game mafia doesn't know the setup, so if this is a vt setup he gambled on that and then gambled on not being coutnerclaimed???? Are you all dense or am I wrong about the setup? I didn't read the op.
rayn can't be mafia because while I threw the ball, he made the alley hoop. or w.e that is called. And then during night he decides to not kill anybody while he isn't sure there is a doc so he might get docsaved and then be confirmed? Even more confirmed than he already is??? Are you fuckers for real?
So everybody should have at least 3 superconfirmed townies himself included.
Who is left for me:
Rels
Tumble
btdt
df
For me the obvious choice is Rels. Didn't do shit, and just gained cred when it was cool. Go lynch that fucker.
Darthfoley played well if he is mafia. Cherry picked what he posted and made them incredible.
Tumble most likely is town. Read rayn his posts on why. He is just playing like he always plays. Weird or not understandable does NOT equal scum. Not now, not ever.
btdt is possibly mafia due to interactions with Calix and bad posts. But he is not mafia due to activity and emotions. So he is not mafia and should not be considered in the next 2 lynches. Or do we lose after 3ml? I don't know.
So lynch Rels
Then look at how clean dartholey is
Then look at how messed up Tumble and btdt are and pick one in lylo. Hopefully I am there and not sicklucker.
Also protip to btdt and tumble: Stop calling each other mafia because you don't understand the other person his playstyle. It's dumb. My only qualm as to why Rels isn't mafia is the fact that rayn was the NK target. Like why would Rels target rayn if he's hardcore defending him. It would've made more sense to kill you or me
cuz rayn can figure shit out. I noticed last game. It took him till D4 but it happened 
I think rayn is an OK night kill for Rels to make. Especially because Rels maybe not have seen me play. Because I was afk the time he was here. And was going to be afk for another 48 hours.
So yeah. rayn was an ok kill.
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On April 11 2017 20:43 beentheredonethat wrote:
Simply based on the voting, it's Tumble or Rels. And I think it's Tumble over Rels.
There are some ifs:
1. Koshi yolo bussed
2. darthfoley bussed into afk Calix (given df has a lame 4 page filter, that might even be the case)
3. Rayn yolo bussed
that make us instantly lose the game I think.
More ifs:
1. Rels is scum (he didn't play at all so... yeah)
2. Tumbleweed's mindmeld was staged
3. sicklucker fake claimed into a all vt setup
So basically: lynch Tumblewood. If town, carefully consider Rels/(sicklucker vs. darthfoley in a tinfoil world).
That's where I'm at.
Given that Tumble continues to not have original thoughts and continues to drive-by post, I think it's the most likely scenario.
Koshi and Rayn would never yolo bus in this situation. They are good enough players to fabricate shit on someone else and at least give Calix one more day to improve her situation in the town. It doesn't make sense for anyone who voted for Calix except Rels to bus Calix. The votes were 4-2-2 and could've easily consolidated elsewhere if mafia were strong players/early bussers and wanted it to.
Idk why my filter length has anything to do with your read on me when it doesn't seem to factor into either Tumblewood or Rels. I'm also unsure as to why your #1 "if" is Rels is scum yet your conclusion is lynch Tumblewood?? Your whole argument for why Tumblewood is mafia
Given that Tumble continues to not have original thoughts and continues to drive-by post, I think it's the most likely scenario.
is literally Rels 100% of the time in this game. Why is TW more likely mafia than Rels?
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On April 12 2017 01:29 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 00:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:On April 12 2017 00:08 Koshi wrote:
It is true what you say but I think Rels just made the correct play to survive. Calix was made. Same could be said about you and me too... And i don't think i am mafia and i don't think you are mafia. I don't think the same could be said considering you, koshi and I were the ones who applied a lot of pressure on Calix. More than just early D1 feeler pressure. By the time Rels came in that pressure, and her crumbling, was already set in stone. I don't think the two situations are comparable
Well i could make a case on Koshi if i wanted to.
Easily. But its not likely. After all this is about probabilities and while anyone COULF be mafia, i think about who does what and how likely it is to come from mafia.
I would say from my experience 65% likely Rels tries to push someone else than votes for Calix D1 as mafia when he came to thread.
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He is tunneled. madly tunneled.
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A case on how sexy I am and it must be TMI that I caught Calix as soon as I entered the thread? Sure thing.
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Did Shapelog have 2 votes when Rels voted?
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On April 12 2017 01:42 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 01:36 darthfoley wrote:On April 11 2017 21:00 Koshi wrote:
I do not know why Rels is not the lynch tomorrow.
Sicklucker is obviously doctor, or he did an insane play to secure him lylo. In this game mafia doesn't know the setup, so if this is a vt setup he gambled on that and then gambled on not being coutnerclaimed???? Are you all dense or am I wrong about the setup? I didn't read the op.
rayn can't be mafia because while I threw the ball, he made the alley hoop. or w.e that is called. And then during night he decides to not kill anybody while he isn't sure there is a doc so he might get docsaved and then be confirmed? Even more confirmed than he already is??? Are you fuckers for real?
So everybody should have at least 3 superconfirmed townies himself included.
Who is left for me:
Rels
Tumble
btdt
df
For me the obvious choice is Rels. Didn't do shit, and just gained cred when it was cool. Go lynch that fucker.
Darthfoley played well if he is mafia. Cherry picked what he posted and made them incredible.
Tumble most likely is town. Read rayn his posts on why. He is just playing like he always plays. Weird or not understandable does NOT equal scum. Not now, not ever.
btdt is possibly mafia due to interactions with Calix and bad posts. But he is not mafia due to activity and emotions. So he is not mafia and should not be considered in the next 2 lynches. Or do we lose after 3ml? I don't know.
So lynch Rels
Then look at how clean dartholey is
Then look at how messed up Tumble and btdt are and pick one in lylo. Hopefully I am there and not sicklucker.
Also protip to btdt and tumble: Stop calling each other mafia because you don't understand the other person his playstyle. It's dumb. My only qualm as to why Rels isn't mafia is the fact that rayn was the NK target. Like why would Rels target rayn if he's hardcore defending him. It would've made more sense to kill you or me cuz rayn can figure shit out. I noticed last game. It took him till D4 but it happened I think rayn is an OK night kill for Rels to make. Especially because Rels maybe not have seen me play. Because I was afk the time he was here. And was going to be afk for another 48 hours. So yeah. rayn was an ok kill.
Oh right the whole "i'm gonna be AFK for 96 hours and then catch up" thing. Hmm. I feel like everything else Rels has done is just filler/buying himself time.
+ Show Spoiler +On April 07 2017 17:47 Rels wrote:
I swear I will play at some point. On April 08 2017 05:52 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On April 07 2017 04:19 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Hey Rels not many town slots left. What did you roll? ^^ This game really looks it's gonna be easy (= I'm at exactly the same reads at that page (= On April 08 2017 20:05 Rels wrote:
yeah I'm gonna spend most of today playing Battlerite. BTW you should come play at some point it's a fucking good game On April 08 2017 22:05 Rels wrote:
kinda. Playing at the same time so there might be long times between posts On April 10 2017 20:40 Rels wrote:
Shape's filter doesn't hit me as super scummy by itself. But he's the only logical answer.
Rels' filter is absolute cringe.
On April 10 2017 22:26 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On April 10 2017 22:24 sicklucker wrote:
well thats not very fun see you in the next day so you think the game is not over in the next day ?
I also don't understand this question at all. Rels' 1.3 posts this whole game were about how SL is town and Shapelog is mafia even though he's not scummy. Then this question that sounds accusatory (implying SL has TMI somehow?) towards his biggest TR... when the dude has claimed doc.
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On April 12 2017 01:42 Koshi wrote:Show nested quote +On April 12 2017 01:36 darthfoley wrote:On April 11 2017 21:00 Koshi wrote:
I do not know why Rels is not the lynch tomorrow.
Sicklucker is obviously doctor, or he did an insane play to secure him lylo. In this game mafia doesn't know the setup, so if this is a vt setup he gambled on that and then gambled on not being coutnerclaimed???? Are you all dense or am I wrong about the setup? I didn't read the op.
rayn can't be mafia because while I threw the ball, he made the alley hoop. or w.e that is called. And then during night he decides to not kill anybody while he isn't sure there is a doc so he might get docsaved and then be confirmed? Even more confirmed than he already is??? Are you fuckers for real?
So everybody should have at least 3 superconfirmed townies himself included.
Who is left for me:
Rels
Tumble
btdt
df
For me the obvious choice is Rels. Didn't do shit, and just gained cred when it was cool. Go lynch that fucker.
Darthfoley played well if he is mafia. Cherry picked what he posted and made them incredible.
Tumble most likely is town. Read rayn his posts on why. He is just playing like he always plays. Weird or not understandable does NOT equal scum. Not now, not ever.
btdt is possibly mafia due to interactions with Calix and bad posts. But he is not mafia due to activity and emotions. So he is not mafia and should not be considered in the next 2 lynches. Or do we lose after 3ml? I don't know.
So lynch Rels
Then look at how clean dartholey is
Then look at how messed up Tumble and btdt are and pick one in lylo. Hopefully I am there and not sicklucker.
Also protip to btdt and tumble: Stop calling each other mafia because you don't understand the other person his playstyle. It's dumb. My only qualm as to why Rels isn't mafia is the fact that rayn was the NK target. Like why would Rels target rayn if he's hardcore defending him. It would've made more sense to kill you or me cuz rayn can figure shit out. I noticed last game. It took him till D4 but it happened I think rayn is an OK night kill for Rels to make. Especially because Rels maybe not have seen me play. Because I was afk the time he was here. And was going to be afk for another 48 hours. So yeah. rayn was an ok kill.
Actually it was D3 but Onegu had to go before lylo and asap.
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On April 12 2017 01:46 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Did Shapelog have 2 votes when Rels voted?
Nope. Here's the sequence
+ Show Spoiler +On April 08 2017 01:36 Hapahauli wrote:Vote-or-die: Calix (2) - Koshi, darthfoleyTumblewood (1) - beentheredonethat Rels (1) - Tumblewood Sicklucker (1) - raynpelikoneetbeentheredonethat (1) - sickluckerNot Voting (3) - Calix, Rels, Shapelog Whoever has the most votes at the end of the day (plurality) will be lynched.
Only votes in the voting thread will count.
The day will end in at 01:30 GMT (+00:00). On April 08 2017 03:17 Shapelog wrote:
#Vote: Tumblewood On April 08 2017 04:02 Tumblewood wrote:
##unvote
##vote shapelog On April 08 2017 04:19 Tumblewood wrote:
##unvote
##vote rels On April 08 2017 05:33 raynpelikoneet wrote:
##unvote
##vote Calix On April 08 2017 06:28 Rels wrote:
##Vote Calix On April 08 2017 06:54 sicklucker wrote:
#unvote
##vote shapelog On April 08 2017 09:36 Tumblewood wrote:
##unvote
##vote shapelog
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When Rels voted for Calix it was
3 Calix
2 TW (TR by basically all of Calix wagon at the time)
1 Rels
1 Shapelog
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It's Rels guys. Let's just afk lynch him and start panicking after he flips VT.
The one Frenchie that doesn't surrender...
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On April 11 2017 16:43 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2017 15:15 darthfoley wrote:On April 10 2017 20:40 Rels wrote:
Shape's filter doesn't hit me as super scummy by itself. But he's the only logical answer. On April 10 2017 21:40 Rels wrote:On April 10 2017 20:52 raynpelikoneet wrote:
What do you mean by that? That I don't find Shape's filter particulary scummy, but not townie either and everyone else is town. Now that the "logical" answer flipped town, how do you see the game? I'm pretty lost ... everyone has reason to be town. I dunno.
lol
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On April 12 2017 01:54 darthfoley wrote:
When Rels voted for Calix it was
3 Calix
2 TW (TR by basically all of Calix wagon at the time)
1 Rels
1 Shapelog
The thing here is;
Lets say Rels is mafia. He has about 3.5hrs before deadline.
Every player on Calix scumreads Shapelog. Sicklucker scumreads Calix (soon to vote for him).
If you are mafia!rels what do you do?
(1) just drop your vote on Calix?
(2) try to convince basically every townie that their other scumread is scum instead of Calix.
It's not even a question of will he succeed in (2), it's a question of if you do (1), can you ever win? You dont know the setup, someone who is not rayn/koshi/df is a cop and its gg if Calix dies. If someone is blue its 90% gg. Which route you take?
If you have even 20% chance to convince 1 person of the other three who already scumread Shapelog Calix most likely lives. And that is NOT even taking account Calix' vote.
I personally think Calix decided she's dead and not to post only after Rels voted. Because without Rels' vote, whoever is mafia with her, its not a disaster yet.
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Ebwop: sl scumreads shapelog.
Fuck phoneposting
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There is a chance you are right. But except for that vote Rels hasn't done anything remotely townie or mafia.
Other people have done both in abundance.
Kill Rels. Always. Please.
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My townread is bbased on Rels being a good scumplayer and if he is mafia that was fucking shit scumplay.
Please read what i wrote on Tumblewood.
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I feel like all Tumblewood does is he finds some bad narratives to fit his conclusions (like calix vs shapelog vote and the "quality of players" argument) and he hadnt done anything after N1. The early game of his (which i townread him for) can be explained by the fact he did the same thing last game as town so why not ride with it here if he's mafia ("oh i townread my scumbuddy because of mindmeld" as i acted the same way last game). + here this thing too; he doesnt consider he can be wrong even when pointed out clearly how Calix acted very differently from last game. He just ends up to "dont worry rayn youll get your lynch anyways".... when he is townreading Calix for the same argument me and Koshi are scumreading her for. Like this is the opposite. If tumble did that as town its fucking terrible townplay. And then just peace out after.
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I'll consider it tomorrow. tbh I haven't read shit from the last 96 hours
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ryan you say rels didnt have to defend me as mafia or w/e. but meta wise he would 10000% suck up to me as mafia
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EPT
