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Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 17:52 GMT
#1561
On March 21 2017 02:49 Damdred wrote:
I'm not going to admit in the open to calix + Show Spoiler +
that tumble
might be town.




I also shouldn't have openly admitted that
+ Show Spoiler +
rayn

might be town.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 17:59 GMT
#1562
On March 21 2017 02:34 Damdred wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2017 02:28 Xatalos wrote:
On March 21 2017 02:23 Damdred wrote:
You know a scum team of say,

AMG/DF/Eden

kinda makes sense...


Why AMG?


Everyone said his post about me was good but most ignored my follow up post how the entirity of the post was misrepresented of the game state.

I find scum do this a lot more when they need reads rather than town who are trying to figure out the game.

agreed.
still want to see what he does for the rest of the cycle before going to conclusions though, as he just replaced in.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
March 20 2017 18:01 GMT
#1563
Yo scumformation, how's that lock scum Calix and Koshi possibly scum thing going?

As for the other two chumps, I know that I'm notoriously off with my reads as town but that doesn't mean I'm always wrong
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:03 GMT
#1564
On March 21 2017 03:01 Calix wrote:
Yo scumformation, how's that lock scum Calix and Koshi possibly scum thing going?

As for the other two chumps, I know that I'm notoriously off with my reads as town but that doesn't mean I'm always wrong


scumformation sounds like some next-level scum tactic...
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:04 GMT
#1565
Calix what are your updated thoughts on disfo / DF?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 18:07 GMT
#1566
On March 21 2017 03:01 Calix wrote:
Yo scumformation, how's that lock scum Calix and Koshi possibly scum thing going?

As for the other two chumps, I know that I'm notoriously off with my reads as town but that doesn't mean I'm always wrong

eh. without having reread your filter, but taking omgus classes off:
you are probably way less scummy than I thought, but you are probably not the town saint some ppl make you out to be.
and to be fair: my n1 was probably super bleh.

you are probably tinfoil land. guess there are a lot of ppl that should get lynched before you, but should be alive like d5/d6/lylo I would ask for ppl to look at you again. turns out its quite hard for scum to shoot themselves.

koshi? lost to a universally town read koshi before, so I really want to read his filter before coming to another conclusion.
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
March 20 2017 18:08 GMT
#1567
You know, I don't even think disformation is that mafia anymore since there wasn't anything that bad in the reads that he did give and you two made some valid points in his favour. It's mostly POE that keeps him from being a town-read but you can't push someone for that.

So as it stands, my vote is me being a hipster/ avoiding mod-kill because Eden is getting lynched anyway and I don't scum-read anyone harder so I don't care to stop that.

As for DF, haven't read him yet. But I might do that in an hour or so, a bit busy atm.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 18:09 GMT
#1568
small break then ill finish solatax the amnesiac and next up is yelofhtrad
Calix
Profile Joined August 2016
3379 Posts
March 20 2017 18:11 GMT
#1569
I laugh at how we're basically saying the same shit about each other. #Rels #TouhouMafia
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:18 GMT
#1570
Rofl... I laugh IRL everytime I read the name "solatax the amnesiac". Not sure why it gets me. Maybe because it's kind of true
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:18 GMT
#1571
Also reminds me of the golden days of SC2 Mafia.

http://sc2mafia.wikia.com/wiki/Amnesiac
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 18:33 GMT
#1572
yo amnesiac is such a good name for you:
On March 18 2017 03:38 Xatalos wrote:
foley's thing on Malongo was actually much better than rayn's...

On March 19 2017 00:51 Xatalos wrote:
Foley seems OK'ish for now, I guess? He talks a lot in a focused manner (focused on doing useful things). Kind of jumps to quick snap judgments. His reads aren't too far from my own, just a couple of people in different places. Pretty... null / slight town lean? Not really the best D1 lynch IMO

On March 19 2017 03:56 Xatalos wrote:
Seriously. I remember someone had a half-decent case on Malongo, other than rayn. It didn't truly convince me, but it was better than nothing. rayn's cases on Damdred/Malongo leaned more towards "nothing" for me..
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:40 GMT
#1573
Heh.

Do note though that I never really townread him. Or read him for that matter.... He was kind of under my radar all game.

Both Eden and DF made cases that I thought had some merit at the time (against Calix and Malongo). Those cases haven't aged that well though and there isn't much else they've done (or practically nothing else in Eden's case).
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 18:45 GMT
#1574
yeah i dont really think amnesia is AI.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:53 GMT
#1575
What was my name again?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
March 20 2017 18:58 GMT
#1576
What game are we even playing?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 19:05 GMT
#1577
xatalos, the rolling thunder amnesiac
I had some small nitpickings near the start of the game. one i posted earlier, the other is:
+ Show Spoiler +
mighty nitpicking ranger mode activate:
On March 17 2017 08:46 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2017 08:41 Calix wrote:
FWIW I feel like this entire discussion is pure so I cannot be arsed to contribute much until something new happens.

It's not really based on filter-diving or whatever. I just feel like everyone who is talking right now is posting without an agenda and is just saying what they have so far and is being reasonable and helping the town.

So imo we shouldn't lynch among Xat/ DD/ Koshi/ Blue today.

Does this sound really premature? Maybe but that's my impressions of the 'atmosphere' of the game so far so I'm pretty confident here. Don't feel like the chat is very mafia-influenced right now.

If this doesn't make sense then ask away. I feel like a hippie right now xD


No, that's mostly what I felt as well. Only disformation felt a bit out of place so far. Dunno about rayn yet since he only trolled for now.

Damdred is my eternal suspect, but at least I don't see any good reason for lynching him at this point. I'll let you know when I have one

seems pretty content sitting on me and not doing much else scumhunting/let other ppl do the work.
mighty nitpicking ranger offline.

But after that it gets much better with him pinging tw and rayn. so that point is kinda moot.

then leading up to the lynch i had to read this filter really carefully to get whats going on. was a bit confusing. then i find this thing:
On March 21 2017 03:33 disformation wrote:
yo amnesiac is such a good name for you:
Show nested quote +
On March 18 2017 03:38 Xatalos wrote:
foley's thing on Malongo was actually much better than rayn's...

Show nested quote +
On March 19 2017 00:51 Xatalos wrote:
Foley seems OK'ish for now, I guess? He talks a lot in a focused manner (focused on doing useful things). Kind of jumps to quick snap judgments. His reads aren't too far from my own, just a couple of people in different places. Pretty... null / slight town lean? Not really the best D1 lynch IMO

Show nested quote +
On March 19 2017 03:56 Xatalos wrote:
Seriously. I remember someone had a half-decent case on Malongo, other than rayn. It didn't truly convince me, but it was better than nothing. rayn's cases on Damdred/Malongo leaned more towards "nothing" for me..

So. I guess unless someone can prove that amnesia is AI, I dont think we have a problem here.

Thing to note: he is fairly focused on a subset of ppl. TW/Rayn for example. I dont really get the feeling it is a scum tunnel though.
Also note that he is one of the few ppl to actually suggest switches to his scumreads (tw/rayn).
On March 19 2017 06:31 Xatalos wrote:
I'm always open to a Tumble switch or something.

On March 19 2017 06:41 Xatalos wrote:
YOLO lynch rayn?

Yeah these are not hard pushes, but its more than the rest of the ppl doubting the wagon did.
Ends up on mal after all, explained by:
On March 19 2017 08:09 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 19 2017 08:05 Damdred wrote:
You always got for your scum read no matter how useful they are as town.

Who disagrees with this statement?


I guess it depends on the strength of your reads though.

Like if we look at statistics, I think Malongo had coin-flippy odds of being scum. Both Tumble and rayn a bit higher than that. But both Tumble and rayn could potentially be blues (unlike Malongo), and they were doing more in the thread than Malongo, so I could tolerate Malongo especially over Damdred, who I think had less than coin-flip chances of being scum and was also doing some things / could be blue.


Continues with a huge focus on rayn.

early eden mentions:
On March 18 2017 07:15 Xatalos wrote:
Eden's case isn't actually horrible. It's true that Calix jumped to scumreading disfo a bit quickly/strongly and stuck with it until it no longer had steam. The reason for dropping it wasn't the best either... "at least he's doing something now" after listing various other reasons to scumread him, which weren't really addressed? Or were they somewhere?

I could be biased because Eden praised my townieness so greatly.

I'll be around closer to the deadline, but probably not very much for the next 15-20 hours or so.

On March 19 2017 00:55 Xatalos wrote:
Eden seemed kind of OK? At least his Calix case actually made me reconsider Calix - no matter if it's right or wrong, at least he seems to do things and not just lurk by.

On March 19 2017 03:41 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 19 2017 03:37 Eden1892 wrote:
On March 19 2017 03:30 Xatalos wrote:
On March 19 2017 03:01 Eden1892 wrote:
##UNVOTE

This firewall tanked my mafia time last night and this morning almost certainly going to be gone at EOD as well, wedding in ~3 hrs.

I think my case on Calix still has merit, but I can see no one was really interested, and I know I don't have time to push it through the more active players today, so I'm going to shelve it and make my vote more useful.

On March 19 2017 02:26 raynpelikoneet wrote:
On March 18 2017 05:15 Eden1892 wrote:
On March 18 2017 05:10 Calix wrote:
On March 18 2017 04:57 Eden1892 wrote:
On March 18 2017 04:23 darthfoley wrote:
I'd like your overall reads when you have them Eden

I don't have a lot yet and I'm sure outside of Calix, none of it is interesting.

Top town is Xatalos followed shortly by rayn and Koshi.
Top scum is Calix.

Damdred has said a lot without a lot jumping out at me one way or another. I don't recall having this much difficulty discerning any feeling about his alignment when he's one of the more active posters in the thread before. Not really sure what to make of it yet, and to be fair to him, my relative disconnectedness from this game compared to past ones on here is probably to blame.

I think disformation is lock town if I'm right about Calix. Pretty sure Calix is scum and spewed disfo town. Loved this post by disfo as well:
On March 17 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
On March 17 2017 17:58 Calix wrote:
Explain scum motivation for calling multiple people town this early on and stating that I do not want to lynch them today. I'd like to see the inevitable bullshit which is sure to come.

1) Push someone weak so you have a scum read
2) get lazy and give the rest lazy town reads
3) "look how much work i already did"

if shit happens you can still easily backtrack, since its early and the trs where fairly weak in the first place


I don't get the Malongo wagon having so many votes. He's a giant blank right now and it's weird that a wagon on a straight null poster got so much traction so quick. Makes me think that there were multiple mafia driving the early discussion and managed to get attention centered on a townie with weak/no thread presence. The alternative is that Malongo is mafia and his team can't do anything to stop the town, in which case this game is easy and I'm not worried anyway.

That's about all I got that I think matters right now.


If you're already using pre-flip associations and getting tunnel vision re: me before anyone has even flipped then your reads are going to be so off it's not even funny.

What do you actually think of Malongo himself? Why exactly he is null to you?

Why wouldn't he be null? This is a weird concept, since people are null by default, but here goes.

He's null because he hasn't done anything relevant or important yet. He said something interesting about not liking the speed at which Damdred and disformation wagons grew. I like these kinds of observations, all else equal, but he didn't do anything with it and his vote on ray had no serious motivation behind it.

So the sum of his actions is... nothing. He made a potentially interesting observation and did nothing to make it actually interesting. He voted for some guy for no particular reason. It's a bunch of air. Null.

Like if Eden says this he literally must think my case is crap because my case on Malongo is based on something he found slightly townie.

He doesn't think Damdred (who i am voting for) is mafia.

Xatalos (who was and is my third scumread) is his top townread.

Why am i town in Eden's eys? That's basically everything i have done in this game, called these three people out.

I disagree with your reads all the time lol. I've learned not to let that affect my read on you. My heuristics might be outdated, but when you're mafia you tend to be disproportionately forceful in tone compared to the strength of your argument. You'll push speculative reasons as though they were absolute fact and effectively bully-pulpit the thread and shove people into lining up behind you. When you're town, whether or not I agree with your direction in the thread, I at least get the sense that you're treating your arguments with the respect they deserve instead of demanding an undue amount of it from the other players.

I think your play this game has been much more in line with the town description than the mafia description. I bet you'll even agree. So even though I don't like your Malongo case or Xatalos scumread, I can still easily be comfortable calling you town.

As for Damdred, I didn't say that I don't think he's mafia, just that he didn't make an impression one way or another. I'm still not really prepared to say that he isn't, either. Just seems like he's said a lot of words and made a lot of posts, but very little has made a strong impression either way. I'll go and reread his filter and try to develop a more crystallized opinion of him for you though, since that's your wagon for today and I trust your motivations.


I can kind of agree with how you're metaing rayn - but are you sure about the conclusion that he's giving his reads the "appropriate amount of force"? To me it's felt like he's pushed them with a little too much confidence compared to their strengths.

I didn't explain this well. When I say "force" I'm not referring to confidence - ray always has this in spades.
What I mean is that he tends as mafia to treat people like total morons if they dissent from him, whereas you can see here that he's not being degrading or demeaning toward people who disagree


Hmmm.... Maybe you have a point. He's actually trying to explain things. As scum he's tended to just ignore / push me if I've opposed him, kind of trying to bury me / others under his posts.

On March 19 2017 19:41 Xatalos wrote:
Hmm.... rayn/Tumble/eden scumteam for cred?

Would be nice if it was that easy.

Onegu and Rels did pretty much nothing to help with the D1 lynch so gotta keep an eye on them as well.



so two other things of notice:
1) overly focused on rayn
not necessarily a scum tell and i feel the read is somewhat more natural/evolving/changing than a scum tunnel would be.
2) if eden flips scum (probable): eden might have spewed xata town: (bolded by the author)
On March 18 2017 04:57 Eden1892 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 18 2017 04:23 darthfoley wrote:
I'd like your overall reads when you have them Eden

I don't have a lot yet and I'm sure outside of Calix, none of it is interesting.

Top town is Xatalos followed shortly by rayn and Koshi.
Top scum is Calix.

Damdred has said a lot without a lot jumping out at me one way or another. I don't recall having this much difficulty discerning any feeling about his alignment when he's one of the more active posters in the thread before. Not really sure what to make of it yet, and to be fair to him, my relative disconnectedness from this game compared to past ones on here is probably to blame.

I think disformation is lock town if I'm right about Calix. Pretty sure Calix is scum and spewed disfo town. Loved this post by disfo as well:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
On March 17 2017 17:58 Calix wrote:
Explain scum motivation for calling multiple people town this early on and stating that I do not want to lynch them today. I'd like to see the inevitable bullshit which is sure to come.

1) Push someone weak so you have a scum read
2) get lazy and give the rest lazy town reads
3) "look how much work i already did"

if shit happens you can still easily backtrack, since its early and the trs where fairly weak in the first place


I don't get the Malongo wagon having so many votes. He's a giant blank right now and it's weird that a wagon on a straight null poster got so much traction so quick. Makes me think that there were multiple mafia driving the early discussion and managed to get attention centered on a townie with weak/no thread presence. The alternative is that Malongo is mafia and his team can't do anything to stop the town, in which case this game is easy and I'm not worried anyway.

That's about all I got that I think matters right now.


so outside the huge focus on rayn I dont see much problem here. and even that feels more like a town tunnel. possibly spewed by eden. good chance at being town.

somewhat tempted to go back and look at the arguments against him, cause back when i read them i didnt feel like they that bad... *shrugs*
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 19:08 GMT
#1578
got a bit lazy with that one, but the filter is yuge.
like the eden things i found though. hope eden flips red for realz. will make the game much better for us.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
March 20 2017 19:14 GMT
#1579
I love yelofhtrad's tone.
On March 19 2017 11:24 darthfoley wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 19 2017 10:34 Eden1892 wrote:
Why did we lynch Malongo? I guess it's "safe" but he was perfect null.

I voted Damdred because:
1. Calix wasn't a reasonable wagon and tbh I was starting to second guess myself anyway
2. I didn't see any compelling reason to vote Malongo. It's safe but fuck that, town doesn't win making safe plays unless the Mafia sucks.
3. Damdred still hasn't done anything that made me think he couldn't be Mafia. That's hypocritical compared to Malongo, except that I know I can expect more from Damdred and I can't know to do so from Malongo.
4. My vote for Damdred put the wagons at 5-3 which gave the Mafia a chance to save Malongo if he were scum; gave town a second wagon to consider, and I thought if the EOD were more active we'd get more meaningful info from that with a real 2nd option.

WITH THAT SAID, I apologize for not actually returning. I sorely underestimated my wireless carrier's range, Mississippi's infrastructure and the entertainment level of this wedding. I solemnly swear not to make any of those mistakes again, especially expecting positive outcomes from Mississippi's infratstructure. A truly egregious error to be certain


Welcome back. I mean he was "perfectly null" but didn't give any reads when I asked him specifically to (and he was around at the time).

Point 4 is actually kinda cool and I hadn't considered that

but what game is he reading?
Onegu
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States9699 Posts
March 20 2017 19:18 GMT
#1580
The fact that Koshi isnt shouting from the rooftops that I am scum has me highly doubtful about him.

The fact Rayn isnt bitching about me more has me worried.

Calix doing so makes her town.

Xata is town.

Everyone else I have little to comment on.
Try TL Mafia!!!
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