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jeez cakepie why do you have such a strong aversion to scumreading chairman ray
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On December 11 2016 02:17 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 11 2016 02:09 Tumblewood wrote:just catching up now On December 11 2016 00:11 NeverUnlucky wrote: TW:
Same question I asked ExO re: "How do you explain scum-reading [your] green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with [your] green-check and not doing a case on who [you] scum-read and ended up checking?"
it would have looked weird to act like everything was ok with 1der, because for a townie he looked preeeetty scummy. for the same reason, it would have looked like TMI if I had acted like I knew 1der was town when as VT I would have probably been calling him scum. I checked ray because I was uncertain about him, which was partially caused by the fact that I never organized my thoughts about him. initially I planned to get to everyone but making large cases burns me out fast. hope this clears it up for ya Not entirely. Why would you start by casing your green-check? If you're limited on time, you should be keeping him for last as you know his alignment as cop and not CRay/me. What do you think of cakepie and CRay's reasons to TR H1 since you find him scummy? Do you think they are fabricated/TMI? when I started I thought I would get to everyone anyway so it wouldn't matter. which was silly. but I was fine missing ray because I knew I could get his alignment via copcheck, and I was (am) nearly certain on you. I don't remember why cakepie and ray were TRing 1der in D1, so I will look into it
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having trouble finding why cakepie and ray townread 1der. if someone could point me to the posts where they explain it that would be much appreciated
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here are the only 3 times cakepie ever quotes chairman ray, and his responses/comments. + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote: In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? okay, but you haven't answered my questions. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 22:42 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them?I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. No, you misunderstand that quoted. I'm saying that I gimped #186 because I had associative reads in my head at that time but chose not to put them in #186. I wanted to give time for the number of interactions to increase. I wanted to continue pushing TW further into solid scum territory. Given time, if I am right about their association, I will get more material, and a stronger basis to associate ExO to solidscum!TW. Tipping them off that I'm on their tail may make them more guarded and harder to catch. At the time of #186, I had - the niggling feeling that ExO was evasive, especially re TW - the only ?solid content? was attacking CR's case (proxy defending TW) - the N0 interactions.
Ray, I wish I had the luxury of time to engage with you, but my focus is going to have to be on working with NU. Unless TW and/or ExO extend good faith to me. But they're not doing so. Today was supposed to be me helping NU town you so we can lynch scum together, but now I have a different task. I'll clarify/correct you when you don't get what I'm saying or if you misunderstand what I wrote (like above). Things I tell NU, you can read and process as well. Otherwise you're on your own to figure stuff. But I don't think you need my help. I hope you'll do what you can. Maybe at some point NU will be willing to read you on good faith.
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and all six times ray quotes or asks a question of cakepie + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: Hey craycray, anything for me?
What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
I'm okay with you pushing NU.
I'd really like to see more people interact with H1 because H1 v TW doesn't give me a good baseline to evaluate H1 interactions with me. When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 20:20 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:42 cakepie wrote:On December 09 2016 19:25 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 19:16 cakepie wrote: What do you think of H1 specifically that EoD1 behavior - "i'd spite vote but won't" - unfair "pick one answer now" questions - voting after we've left off
When hopeless gets back, I would like to hear his answer for this: On December 09 2016 07:51 Chairman Ray wrote: Also hopeless, why did you vote TW after cakepie and I rescinded? okay, but you haven't answered my questions. Here's my take on it The spite vote in itself wasn't the suspicious part for me. The spite vote combined with the timing of it was really fishy. Hopeless clearly stated that he wants to lynch TW: Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 06:44 Hopeless1der wrote: ##Unvote##Vote: Tumblewood
I fully understand that this day is going to be a no lynch. I'm like 51/49 on lynhching TW today. However, hopeless only voted after you and I rescinded our votes. He was on during the entire time, so he could have pushed it to 3 votes and maybe gotten the lynch. However he chose to vote after we rescinded when his vote was completely useless. Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 04:39 Hopeless1der wrote:EBWOP: Shitty nested quotes also On December 09 2016 04:01 Hopeless1der wrote:On December 09 2016 02:02 Tumblewood wrote: well I'm never going to convince you that you're scum. but understand that I am doing the best job I can finding scum using logic I consider to be good. TW, you think cakepie is scum? What the fucking fuck? Please respond to this with either "I think cakepie is scum" or "I do not think cakepie is scum". Thank you for your cooperation, Tumblewood.
Tumblewood answered a different one instead, and hopeless kept pushing. I think there was a little miscommunication here. I was about to interject and clarify it, but wanted to see how it would play out instead. In the end, hopeless did not ever correct Tumblewood on answering the wrong question, and decided to vote him anyways. To me that seems like Hopeless wasn't that interested in TW's answer anyways. With these three things combined, there's a bunch of ways you could interpret it, but the motive I'm concerned about is that Hopeless just wanted to distance himself from TW. It would give rise to the scenario where hopeless is scum with TW. That would also explain why TW seemed quite unconcerned with 3 people voting him at EOD. If I were town in that position, I would be begging people to get their votes off so that mafia couldn't hammer it. TW was unphased by it until after the day ended, and then proceeded to post a few big long posts, which would have made more sense to post before EOD. It's late and I'm not sure if I'm getting my read across, but to summarize, I think this is a possible scenario: Hopeless and TW are mafia together Hopeless thinks "oh crap, TW is under a lot of fire, everyone's on him but me. I better draw some distance too" Hopeless draws distance by doing the whole binary question thing and also threatening to vote him, but doesn't follow up on TW answer the question Chairman Ray and cakepie vote TW TW thinks "Well, I know for a fact that Hopeless won't kill me, and NU won't vote me either, so I'm safe" Chairman Ray and cakepie unvote TW Hopeless votes TW and says "I'm 51/49 on killing you!" That just one way I could interpret this really awkward exchange between TW and hopeless. I don't really see a scenario where hopeless is mafia and TW is town, that seems really weird to me. If hopeless is town and had good town intentions, I would like him to speak for himself, which is why I asked him earlier. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 10:04 Chairman Ray wrote: Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered:
@cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim?
@NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 10:12 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 09:59 cakepie wrote: I claimed at EoN. TW, why you no claim at EoN? Ray, why you no claim at EoN? Because I checked Koshi Reading through your gigantic case now. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 10:51 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 23:05 cakepie wrote:Ray I need you to untunnel NU for a moment. Your reasons for scumming him are: 1. N0 planning, feigning activity? (same as TW) 2. D1 distancing from TW (NU+TW scum) 3. wanting you to push him 4. caring about how he is perceived I'm not saying that these aren't valid reasons. But I'm going to need you to try some good faith for a moment and consider these viewpoints: 1a. I have (weak? meta) reasons to see planning/mechanics as within the range of town?NU; #43 is a naive desire to have simple cop v mafia fakecop fights with no VTs fakeclaiming blue. 1b. #46 is a sound response to #45. With no VTs fakeclaiming blue, force scum to kill the doc N1 for a free flip without needing cop to check doc. Better plan than TW's careless crap; he's thinking as compared to TW's blindly enumerate. 2. The distancing argument relies on #87 + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 10:10 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 08:59 Tumblewood wrote: current evaluation of ray is neutral and bad, as opposed to everyone else (besides NU I guess) who are neutral and not playing Same feeling for ray, but everyone else (besides you who I've a fetus of a town-lean on) is like ray for me cause 'not playing' IS bad. Pay attention to context. "fetus of a town-lean" for activity, since no one else is present/active -- only NU, TW, CR are around, and town?NU is in OMGUS CR mode thanks to CR's "lynch NU+TW" post. 3. The problem here, Ray, is that you buggered off for good chunks of time without pushing your scumreads. He could be saying "scum!CR isn't pushing me enough for how strong his read seems to be, that's scummy!" 4. Subjective. So take a moment and untunnel yourself, this is essential for what I'm about to draft+post up next. I have to agree here. This is a perspective that i didnt consider. Initially when i made my "lynch tw+nu" post, I had some red flags, but didnt feel at the time they were mafia, but their reaction to my push made no sense coming from town. What I failed to consider was that they were not reacting to what I said, but rather how i pushed it. I can see the possibility of tw and nu reacting the way they did from a town perspective. Im gonna reevaluate on those two. + Show Spoiler +On December 10 2016 18:44 Chairman Ray wrote:cakepie, I read over your case. There's a lot I like, and some I don't like. Firstly, I think you might also have a little of the same tunnel syndrome that I sort of had against NU that you called me out for. Some of the reads that you posted aren't alignment indicative and read more like "I don't like how this person is playing". Maybe it makes more sense in your head and you didn't bother to explain everything fully given the sheer length of your post. I would like to draw attention to one thing: Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 02:04 cakepie wrote:... My ExO case post #186 seems weak because I deliberately tried not to include any associative read stuff of TW+ExO. At the same time I pressured TW, and the idea behind it is that with a more solid scum read on TW, we can move on to discuss TW+ExO on firmer footing. ... You said that the case on ExO was weak compared to the associative reads you had at this time. So I looked at all your associative reads prior to #186, ignoring everything that came after, or any individual reads (because they were apparently weak). I don't fully buy that you had enough evidence to make an associative case at the time that you claimed. Can you please explain your thoughts at the moment where you had associative reads but didn't post them? There's a few more thoughts I had, but I'll share them afterwards. A couple things I would add to the ExO case from my own personal reads. During the entire game, nearly every single post ExO made on me was really unfair and misconstrued me into a mafia mold, and was somewhat OMGUS. At the time I read this as town who honestly didn't know who was mafia. This would make sense if ExO came into this game, saw some red flags in me, and then held a strong bias that I must be mafia. Because a legit mafia would know that I'm town, and will only have a logical bias against me to try to get me lynched, but the OMGUS doesn't make any sense if I never gone on him for anything. So I thought he was just being a biased town; however, if I came into the game guns blazing against his mafia buddy, that would explain the OMGUS part. Earlier I posted an associative read where TW could be mafia with hopeless, because TW did not feel threatened at all at EoD from 3 people voting him, and hopeless deliberately missing his vote would explain it. If ExO+TW was the mafia team, that would also be reasonable, because NU was leaning town on TW, so there was no risk of hammering. I think that it's definitely plausible that TW+ExO is the scumteam. I'm currently on a weekend trip, so I can't delve it too much now. I'll be on for a short while Saturday night, and I'll be on Sunday before the deadline. *to be continued*
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for comparison, here is how ray reacts to ExO, the person to whom he is the least hostile. (not including cakepie of course) + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 16:35 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. I have the opposite impression of NU's explanation. All I did was ask the two of them what their townreads were. NU reacted by distancing himself. + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 20:38 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:44 ExO_ wrote:On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote:ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU: On December 09 2016 06:44 Chairman Ray wrote: My original case about NU still stands.
At the start of D1, NU and TW had townreads on one another. There was no pressure on them from anybody else. All I did was ask each of them, in a very neutral manner, what their townread was. If you were town and genuinely believed that the other person was town as well, you would just give me your town reads. Instead, NU posted his scumreads on TW about how TW is overpocketing him. The posts that NU were criticizing were posted BEFORE NU said that TW was towny. So when TW was overpocketing NU, NU should be suspicious at that time, but instead, he gave TW a townread. It wasn't until I asked him for his reasonings did he finally post his suspicions. From a mafia perspective, this makes perfect sense. Chairman Ray asked both TW and NU what their townreads were. Oh crap, he's onto us, better not seem too friendly. From a town perspective, this doesn't make a lot of sense.
Secondly, NU in two instances asked about what other people's reads of him were. At those times, TW had a strong townread on him, and only I was really on him. He argued that I wasn't pushing on him, so I guess he didn't feel any pressure at all. I would expect town to only worry about their perception if they are under the gun. So given that the overall vibe was positive towards NU, why was he so pre-occupied with other people's reads on him? For starters: On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? Yeah, after both you and TW gave me shit for the way I present my reads, I know that I fucked that up. If I see someone do something that has a clear mafia motive, but can also be interpreted from a town side, I just push them for being mafia, and accuse them for one of the many scenarios that could have occurred. If they tell me a valid town perspective, then we're great, but if they can't give me a perspective that makes sense coming from town, then lynch lynch lynch. I realized after both you and TW gave me shit for it that the push just falls flat due to some glaringly obvious logic flaws. TW reacting similarly to you was the only slight townread I have on him, and that was why I rescinded my vote on him before EOD. To your other question, if TW is town, NU is scum, my original suspicion was hopeless. This post gave me a slight yellow flag that I was keeping an eye on: Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:00 NeverUnlucky wrote:On December 08 2016 10:49 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 08 2016 07:55 ExO_ wrote:On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios.
I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me.
Ray looks sketchy to me.
TW looks Town. Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming
So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. I don't think you represented my case fairly. I want to know what you think of TW and NU. When you read over their 'game math' posts, does it read to you like town who are actively trying to win the game? Why didn't you push them for it? They were not 'game math' posts as you put it. We were arguing why cop/medic should claim USING 'math' to demonstrate it. Also, you're hardly pushing either of us. You shared your thoughts on me and TW discussing game mechanics, but other than asking us why we town-leaned each other, you never engaged in a conversation with either of us to push us. That, and your whole contribution this game is about me and TW. So. What is your take on ExO and cakepie? He asked me about ExO and cakepie, but leaving hopeless out, which is a weak associative tell. If there continued to be this awkward silence between the two of them, that would have definitely been a red flag for me. However, after EOD with the hopeless-TW interaction, it's just too weird to believe that hopeless can be scum without TW. Also at the time, I had no case against hopeless besides his inactivity. NU hasn't been playing the last half of the game, so there's not much more to read into. Right now, I just want him to answer the case that I have already presented. My strongest read right now is still TW and NU. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:52 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote:On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. I feel that it's very difficult to get through to you because you are interpreting everything I say in the worst possible way when I didn't mean it that way. + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 14:11 ExO_ wrote: #164 TW hard town reading me --> Scum trying to buddy me because I'm town. Other players I think are town think I might be scum because I wanted cop to reveal (because I thought we had to lynch today). However they think I might be scum faking it. TW isn't even considering this possibilty. #164
#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk
#173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here.
#180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives
#182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain
#185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum.
#186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me.
#203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU
#205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do
#213 fuck off
#215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him
#217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum.
#228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum.
#231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted?
#234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game.
Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum.
CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum.
ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. notice how, speaking to cakepie, he is always cooperative, ranging from simple response to a question to simple question to agreement to agreement with constructive criticism. he never disagrees to any major extent like he does with exo, never feels the need to correct him, never finds any trouble with communication. again, if you looked at his responses to me or NU, it would be a whole different picture. *to be continued*
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+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 16:56 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. This is snark. This might be half in jest This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3. That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling. + Show Spoiler +On December 07 2016 15:27 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:13 ExO_ wrote: I don't agree with Chairman ray's logic about scum would only post in best case scenarios. But do you agree that (conscientious) town would not carelessly only post in best case scenarios? Because that's the part that makes all the plan fluff at least anti-town, if not immediately obv scum. Show nested quote +I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Can you elaborate? I agree with NU's buddy-suspicion and see it possibly going further back to trying to put focus on plans. Help me see why it's not a buddy, and moreso not straight up painting them all green together with Koshi. + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 18:48 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 18:35 ExO_ wrote:On December 08 2016 16:16 cakepie wrote: Oh, and will everyone please take note that I have ceased to tunneltown ExO. Thanks! What was the purpose of this post. At first it didn't bother me but the more I think about it, the more it makes no sense. Why say this without explaining it? Do you have any reasoning for town tunneling me, then cancelling it for some reason? Without explanation I can't see a town motivation for posting this This guy, not even read, doesn't even know where and why I town tunneled him. Have you been IAW playing that other game again instead of playing the mafia game you signed up for? I'm drafting something on TW. Will get back to you. + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2016 20:39 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 18:52 ExO_ wrote: I'm asking you to explain why you stopped town tunneling me. Just announcing it serves no purpose for town. It doesn't help us in any way. What town motivation do you have for just announcing it without explaining Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out. Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters. --- Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 19:32 ExO_ wrote: I largely agree with your reasoning on TW. But a no lynch is our safest play. I don't like the idea of the game being over if we're wrong, when we can wait for a day, get more information, and hopefully cop stays alive and really makes it easier.
It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole You do you. I'm pretty much done with TW for now unless we get some earth-shattering revelation. Lynch him today failing which continue lynching him tomorrow. You "largely agree with [my] reasoning", so what part do you not agree with? Besides the bit about the gamble. --- Anyhow, we don't have time to muck about. Can't afford to wait for one scum to flip before looking for others. Should be obvious that I'm looking at you next ExO; still in the midst of diving your filter atm. Gotta take a break for dinner and brief relax but when I get back, watch out! + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 02:48 cakepie wrote: he "largely agrees" with my TW case [...] There's zero progression / information for how he got there. Hm, maybe not completely zero, but there is this bit: Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 15:27 ExO_ wrote: I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. But still there is very little: #98 TW looks Town. <-- no elaboration! #107 "Why are you making me scumread TW?" <-- couched read?! #153 cakepie isn't an asshat and TW's tone is off #161 "largely agrees" with my TW case <-- no elaboration! + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 04:31 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:11 Tumblewood wrote:On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote: Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy this post (+ sequence before it) feels very candid. it is hard as scum to fake viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint to reflect that. also it would be a lot of attention to detail to fake a mistake and react realistically. TW, just to be clear where I stand on this: it's not "viewpoint -> new evidence -> change viewpoint" in my eyes. There's no new evidence or new information; nothing changed materially. He messed up plain and simple. The question is whether the reason for messing up is innocuous or sinister. Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote: I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit".
[snip]
the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking.
Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ - try to find dirt on TW, finds it difficult; feels "skeptical" of his own "best lead" - blame me for influencing him to tryhard to scumread TW - realize he actually messed up the read, admits error If he thought his read wasn't exactly good, why not hold off and take another look? It's not a speed contest. There's also an element of feeling somehow compelled or obliged to post a scumread even if he has to force it. Awkward! Finally, insinuating that I'm somehow responsible for forcing him to find suspicion when he didn't suspect TW before. WTF? No comments on my case, like "I agree/disagree with this part." + Show Spoiler +On December 09 2016 19:40 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 12:44 ExO_ wrote:Im sure cakepie will show up soon, and hopefully she can prepare her usual list of things for me to respond to. (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.) Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about: - Why was TW town to you at #98
- Explain that part in #107 where you are skeptical of your read and couch it in terms of me making you feel obliged to find anything scummy at all on TW.
- in #161 you "largely agree" with my TW case -- what part(s) do you not agrees with?
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot? --- Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 19:21 ExO_ wrote: I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why. this is cakepie responding to ExO. notice not only how much more volume this is (this is only halfway through his filter, and from ctrl+f I see there are at least 16 more instances on page 3 alone), but how much more confrontational cakepie is. where with ray he acts like a partner, with exo he acts like an opponent or at least a debater.
it feels more like I'm playing against an alliance than two individuals with ray and cakepie
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no hammering of any sort went on, right? good. dunno why I'd ever let cakepie tell me how to play; NU actually has more experience if you count that other site. I've given up on reading everything cakepie says. all of it seems really last-ditch to me — frenzy mode. if I'm feeling particularly useful I might put together a big ol' post on why ray is scum, and after that I'll answer questions but everything should fall into place by itself. sorry to put so much pressure on you, NU. vote who you think is scum any time you feel ready, as long as it's before two and you vote ray and cakepie, please don't kill yourself caring too much about a forum game.
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shit why do I have to convince that you ray is maf. he should've already done that for you by not posting for 20 hours in remembrance:On December 10 2016 10:05 Chairman Ray wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 10:04 NeverUnlucky wrote: Ray's claim is way too convenient, and I think TW is the real cop due to my reasoning in 331.
##Vote Chairman Ray
If you hammer, please have the decency of telling your alignment while we wait for the end game post. How did you know game was going to end? SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP SCUMSLIP
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On December 11 2016 16:20 Chairman Ray wrote: cakepie you are a fucking HERO. If we end up winning this, it'll all be because of you. If we lose, it's 100% my fault for being stupid and signing up for a mafia game when I had a day trip today. yeah because he's your fucking teammate
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I've put in the work this game and I'm tired of wading through crap. it's seriously tedious how much you guys are posting to try and save yourselves. please end it sooner rather than later >.<
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the worst part about it all is I can't gloat yet
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On December 12 2016 01:40 cakepie wrote: There are two narratives possible for what I'm doing.
town cakepie cakepie has discovered the scumteam and their nefarious plan
scum cakepie cakepie and CR have come up with a nefarious plan to mislead town. This plan involves contorting the filters of two townies to make it look like they are a scumteam with a nefarious plan.
Occam's razor, yo. this is not how occam's razor works at all if assuming you and ray are the scumteam and having a nefarious plan is two assumptions, how is me and ExO being the scumteam and having a nefarious plan one assumption? 0/10 terrible post
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AND BY THE WAY NOT CONSIDERING OTHER OPTIONS IS NIT STRICTLY SCUM. ugh all these arguments are s h i t. do I need to respond to them one by one?
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On December 11 2016 16:58 ExO_ wrote: But I know that you can't be scum, because if CR was actually town the game would've been over already after I voted for him. I know you have to be telling the truth because of that fact alone. But Jesus Christ dude sometimes you say things that look scummy as hell. also your "ExO is not considering other options" thing doesn't even work because if you are me or ExO you can determine that ray's partner can only be you or NU, and if you have half a brain you can determine that NU is town
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On December 11 2016 19:48 ExO_ wrote: This is quite a last ditch scum effort from CP/CR. It's full of some pretty coordinated bullshit I think I've presented myself well, and I think this is very obviously a last ditch effort to win the game.
NU the game is in your hands. These posts from CP/CR are big, but they are full of garbage. Lines like this from CR:
"ExO is seriously considering that you might be mafia, because of a case I presented."
should tell you everything you need to know. ofc I was considering you were mafia. I have to consider every possibility, in particular that my reads might be wrong.
No where in CR's posts does he explain why if he was the cop does he only have 2 pages in his filter. Why he strictly tunneled you and TW the entire game. Why he didn't breadcrumb at all. Why both he and cakepie tried to start a a train on Day 1, when it's clearly an incredible risk to do so instead of just waiting a day.
Compare TWs effort all game long, despite constantly being pressured. His posts all game long. He has at least been trying all game long. CR only shows up now. Is that what a cop would do? Post barely anything and tunnel 2 players all game long?
Don't fall for this last ditch effort by CP/CR NU. <3
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why the fuck would we sheep h1. h1 was just sheeping you
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H1 WAS NOT PRETENDING TO BE COP jesus where do you get this shit
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wait lol was h1 supposed to be a blue snipe
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funny that the person who loves occam's razor is also such a fan of "reading between the lines"
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