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On November 05 2016 20:28 mahrgell wrote:Okay, finished reading up on DF: Going to bed, I was sure this would result in a scumlean for me, but looking at his filter this seems from some kind of defence reflex when accused with weird arguments. Yes, I'm still salty when he made up shit like me "using OMGIS" after I responded to a very clear question.... But overall his filter reads really good and I can follow his line of thought. But in the evening I actually marked myself one post of him, which stuck out. Like probably the main post I got bad vibes from him. It was this one. Reading it from the filter doesn't make it special, but reading it fom thread progression is different. What really annoyed me there was, that at the time the post was made, the convo was basically all on Exo. I felt I had defended all of DF's attacks on me quite well and those issues should be solved. Yet he comes in, during the Exo convo, and feels like throwing in shit at me again and try to distract the exo train. If Exo_ would have flipped red, I think I would have went after DF for this post alone. But Exo_ was green. I simply can't see a mafia doing that post at that time in the thread, when they should be jerking off in mafia QT how great this mislynch is doing. I guess if it spawns a LynchTownExo vs LynchTownMahrgell debate this could be somehow still okay for Mafia, but... why risk votes scattering and who knows what happens next? At this time the EoD was still rather far away. So DF townlean for me now.
This strikes me as incredibly towny. It's a really roundabout way to come up with a townread on Darth and is the type of thinking that is almost exclusive to town.
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On November 05 2016 22:44 NeverUnlucky wrote:
i cant read the posts you link from liquiddota dude
what concerns do you share in skynx case on me?
because the only point he raises is that i leave "empty votes" and if you read the thread progression instead of just my filter, you would know in what context i voted for whom i voted which in itself denies the empty vote point
i think skynx is very likely scum for the reasons you noted (which actually are the points i made on skynx at eod) plus for the fact that he should know that i am 100% not getting lynched, so making a case on me is making him look productive when he s actually not doing shit
On November 05 2016 23:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
4) Is actually a very good point. If he was so sure about ExO being town, he would have tried to form an alternative wagon, not say that he'll try to convince others during the night.
I don't find 1 to be a compelling argument.
mahr, during eod, you said that ExO's lynch was going to be informative
Why?
What information did you get out of it?
On November 06 2016 00:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I town-read DF, and don't think Skynx is mafia. I think the scum-team is Foreman and Rels.
???????
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Uh no. Explain your read progression. That is a massive flip with NO explanation and I'm not letting that slip by.
Every single time someone's called you out for being contradictory, you just say "lol yeah I know" instead of explaining it. That is TERRIBLE play. If you're town, rectify it please instead of just acknowledging it and acting like it's not a big deal.
That is fucking ridiculous, not to mention scummy as fuck.
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On November 05 2016 07:12 Calix wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Okay so here's what I think. I don't see anything that really gives me town vibes from Rels, he's in my POE reads and I don't really like him. Kind of want to sleep soon so have some bulletpoints:
1. He feels like he has an agenda with his posts. I get this impression from how strongly he emphasises certain points compared to others. It's like he's trying to achieve X but is also trying to hide that he's trying to achieve X. Examples that pinged me include the following
A) his town-read on me. He really wanted me to know about that. Nobody really needed like, four reasons for why I am town when nobody scum-read me at all at that point and it's not like I need to be defended. Terrible priorities at best, scum pocketing me at worst.
B) his town-read on Foreman. He defends Foreman because of his tone which I'm noting because I don't think he's ever used tone to read anyone else and he seems really invested in that read. This is a very weak point by itself but I'm wondering if it's an example of Rels showing inherent bias when reading players.
c) his discredits of Skynx. I'm referring to EOD where he was saying "well Skynx defending ExO isn't a town tell because Skynx would be aware of how that would look to everyone so it's null" which pinged me because he scum-read ExO so why the fuck would he care about how ExO read Skynx if he thinks ExO is mafia? And who thinks that saying "well this thing that you think is townie is actually null" is a good idea BEFORE someone has flipped anyway? I think Rels knew that ExO would flip town and didn't want Skynx getting town cred for defending the ML.
2. His progression with ExO/ darthfoley. While Rels is attacking darthfoley consistently, he didn't have a problem with switching to ExO by making a case. What's the problem there? ExO was already the leading train. Rels was one of the last voters. All that vote did was secure ExO's lynch and was completely pointless. His vote switch is even weirder because Rels said that ExO was 'very likely town' because of his VT claim earlier and spent a fair bit of time explaining that. And he kept that reasoning in mind but I don't get why he felt the need to switch to ExO when he had that VT claim town-read and felt that DF was scummier.
Looked at this.
1) This is something I also noticed. Actually with him defending me against DF. At this time, I think I had established that I'm willing to stand up myself. Throw shade at me, and I will try to bring light into it. DF was the only one going for me, everyone was at Exo already. Why even defend me with a huge post? I won't get lynched by DF alone. I can defend myself. This alone would probably not be weird, but it follows your argument. I just had this feeling, but your examples were not as clear to me before you brought them up giving my intuition more concrete food.
In general, rereading his filter he had his case on DF... Except for that, all he did was expanding on other peoples stuff. He defended me, after I needed defense. Same with you or Foreman. He suddenly created large Exo accusations after Exo was already voted by 6 people. Etc. Basically all he ever did was to fight on battle fields where the battle was already over. "Look here, I'm fighting"
1c) I can't make sense of this now. I made clear that Skynx is my scumread right now. If we follow the idea of accusing Rels too... They could make up all kind of shit. If Skynx flips town (or I 180 on my read on him), I would probably come back to this.
2) I can follow your thought process here. I'm seeing how this makes you scumread him. But when I'm doing that thought train myself, I end with a "meh, whatever". He later detailed in great detail why he was suddenly considering Exo to be scum. If we buy that, this swap is legitimate. If we don't buy it, it is imho a repeat of what I described under 1), so not a new point.
I'm honestly not that experienced in the meta of "If your target of choice won't happen, what will you do? Confirm an acceptable lynch or stay strong with your target." Trying to read something from it is difficult for me.
Conclusion:
I see your points, I think you are onto something here. But for me right now Skynx is my priority. I can't exactly bend my head around how that Rels suspicion and my Skynx scumread fit together. Do they fit together? Must one be wrong? (Or both wrong and I just suck at this game...)
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There is no progression, Calix. I'm just trusting my gut over logic. The points I made and agreed with are very much valid, I just don't think he is mafia atm. Same with ExO and Palmar. The points made against them were very good, but in the end, I chose to trust my gut/emotional read over my logic.
Call it scummy all you want, you know it's how I play.
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1) is how I felt when I said that I felt manipulated by Rels.
So mahr, On November 05 2016 23:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
mahr, during eod, you said that ExO's lynch was going to be informative
Why?
What information did you get out of it?
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I pretty much exposed my reads on the last page, so I'll post the whole list now.
Calix / TT / Mahr
DF
Skynx
Foreman/Rels
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All he ever did was to fight on battle fields where the battle was already over.
Good quote.
If we agree that Skynx/ Rels has a mafia among them then I think we should wagon the two of them tomorrow. Unless anyone has any objections to this plan then I think this is a good direction to kick off Day 2 with. I really doubt either of them are going to die tonight.
I don't think both of them are scum because then the rationale would look something like this:
Skynx: Yo, I'm going to hard-defend ExO's wagon.
Rels: kk just don't do it too much or you might end up with a messy CFD and ruin the planned ML.
Skynx: This is going to get me all the town credz.
Rels: Nah, I'll just say that your defense is NAI and shouldn't be used to town-read you. cuz distancing or something.
Just doesn't make sense for scum!Rels to scupper the main motivation for white-knighting as scum...at the expense of Skynx being in the spotlight, you know?
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On November 06 2016 00:11 NeverUnlucky wrote:
There is no progression, Calix. I'm just trusting my gut over logic. The points I made and agreed with are very much valid, I just don't think he is mafia atm. Same with ExO and Palmar. The points made against them were very good, but in the end, I chose to trust my gut/emotional read over my logic.
Call it scummy all you want, you know it's how I play.
That's not my point. You switched from "very likely mafia" to "don't think he's mafia" - you literally said that you thought he was very likely to flip red and then switched without anything happening in between.
That's not "I liked the case but my gut tells me he is town" which would have been fine.
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On November 06 2016 00:13 NeverUnlucky wrote:1) is how I felt when I said that I felt manipulated by Rels. So mahr, Show nested quote +On November 05 2016 23:26 NeverUnlucky wrote:
mahr, during eod, you said that ExO's lynch was going to be informative
Why?
What information did you get out of it?
I hinted at what I actually detailed in my latest posts regarding DF, Skynx and Rels.
The post I had bookmarked from DF: I said I would go after him for that post alone if Exo flipped red.
Skynx: His "Exo is 100% town" confused the heck out of me. If Exo would have flipped red, I would have thrown Skynx into a tank full of green paint for being so stubborn.
Also his tangle with you had started, and I noticed that this seemingly guaranteed lynch, which rested for several hours as nobody bothered to care anymore was suddenly picking up some surprising movement.
Rels I didn't have in minds specifically, but I had noticed before that the dynamics of the accusations against Exo had changed. What happened was that some people went after TTs case, who imho lacked detail. This was an easy target. Then my case was left completely unanswered. And suddenly people fought about it, bringing up more reasons and I wondered what had happened. At that time I was only skimming, trying to keep up but unable to dive deep. But this looked off. Like everyone was fighting for position in this lynch. Rereading that later led to what you find now in the Rels post.
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Ok at this point I don't think these people can ever be mafia this game:
Calix
NU
Marhgell
Rels + Show Spoiler +Calix's case on him actually isn't terrible, and I should prob reread Rels but I'm unlikely to do it this phase. My gut read on him is pretty strongly town, I followed his read progression pretty well and all his thoughts feel genuine to me.
A little less sure on Darth, but I feel l can follow his reads and thoughts really well.
Scum:
Skynx: What stands out in my mind is how Skynx had such a strong townread on Exo that it was a large part of his case on me. However I don't recall Skynx ever really explaining this read past the fact that he thought Exo's defense was "his right" or w/e. I said it EoD, and it still feels like TMI to me now.
Gell's case on Skynx is also really good, and is pretty damn sheepable imo.
Foreman: Overall just unimpressive. Spent a long time attacking Calix for "try-harding" without looking at anyone else, transitioned to townreading Calix and scum reading gell in a really odd way. I liked a couple of posts but he dropped off really hard.
So it's kinda PoE at this point that leads me to think Skynx/Foreman is the scumteam, but there are some good reasons, and a good case, why Skynx should prob be the lynch tomorrow.
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I just started a new job this week so my time to play has been slipping away from me more and more. I'm going to try and read Darth's filter and reread EoD before I have to head in today, but may not finish.
If I get killed tonight that last post is good enough for a last will.
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On November 06 2016 00:16 NeverUnlucky wrote:
I pretty much exposed my reads on the last page, so I'll post the whole list now.
Calix / TT / Mahr
DF
Skynx
Foreman/Rels
I'm actually not that sure about Rels anymore because he was quick to dish out TRs on me, Calix, mahr, Exo (at first), and TT. It doesn't look like a good scumplay to do so.
If I'm honest, I re-waffled to thinking that Skynx is mafia atm.
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Humm reading Darth's filter I kinda like him less.
On November 03 2016 05:30 darthfoley wrote:
Foreman completely writing off Calix basically because of one push is helping town at all. Seems like uber tunneling that never actually helps town. Don't see any post so far that screams scum SO hard that I wouldn't entertain the possibility that my read on someone was wrong. Seems a bit scummy to me, especially D1. I agree with Skynx that the votes so far have been really dumb and useless drama
Calix is a slight town read to me currently. I agreed that Skynx's posts were useless until he posted about the votes.
This early read on Foreman is really odd, just kinda rambly and the two bolded lines both contradict each other and add nothing.
I also noticed that Darth made posts all day long about Exo being scum.
On November 03 2016 09:04 darthfoley wrote:
I also find it weird that
1. ExO came in
2. Got scum read and pressured
3. Weak case on Calix
4. Other people came in, namely NU, and changed the conversation
5. ExO peaced out and the current 1v1s are NU vs. Calix, Foreman vs. mahrgell
6. People seemingly forget about ExO
On November 03 2016 12:30 darthfoley wrote:
ExO's filter is also relatively assheeks. I need Rels in the building
On November 04 2016 03:01 darthfoley wrote:
If ExO continues to be this underwhelming and inactivate I think I'd be okay with an exO lynch
But only joins the wagon after making a big post about why he doesn't think I'm scum anymore and that Exo is the better lynch. Kinda feels like he just kept this scumread on Exo in his back pocket, bringing it out when useful but not committing to it till it became clear that Exo was going to be lynched.
Unfortunately I didn't find anything that really makes me think he is either town or scum. Just this stuff that stands out as kinda weird to me.
Moving Darth to a solid null read.
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If I was just to kill people in some order, without hearing back on the results, I would lynch:
1) Skynx - explained
2) Rels - explained
3) Foreman - call it policy lynch, but if all the people I consider having scum agendas are dead, I start killing whoever has no town agenda
4) NU - I at some point stopped trying to figure out his thought progression. It only causes knots in my brain. He doesn't strike me as scum, but well... if those above are gone...
5) DF / Calix - I consider those very townish. If I ever doubt Calix, I will probably read her several times mentioned scum game where she was supposedly so great early. DF I detailed my reasons during my last posting spree. The difference between those two is that I have many small reasons for Calix, while for DF it is one big reason (besides his generally nice to read filter)
7) Mahrgell - I like this guy. He can't ever make a short post, but he is still lovely. Don't kill him, please.
TT is missing from this list, as I hadn't yet time to evaluate him. From intuition I would put him around 4). But hey, my intuition was also completely thrown out of the window after I read into DF and Skynx.
I can't guarantee I can finish TT before EoN though.  Doing this mafia thing now almost 100% of my time since my family left. Need a break.
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PS: As i said, this was if I was killing just in order without hearing the results. Of course everything would have to be reevaluated after each flip, and as I mentioned I haven't yet dived into possible pairings. So don't read this necessarily as a "Skynx+Rels are the scumteam"
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I don't understand why you would lynch me before Calix and DF, but ok.
Also, don't try being Grackaroni (point 7), he's irreplaceable.
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On November 06 2016 01:01 Tictock wrote:Humm reading Darth's filter I kinda like him less. Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 05:30 darthfoley wrote:
Foreman completely writing off Calix basically because of one push is helping town at all. Seems like uber tunneling that never actually helps town. Don't see any post so far that screams scum SO hard that I wouldn't entertain the possibility that my read on someone was wrong. Seems a bit scummy to me, especially D1. I agree with Skynx that the votes so far have been really dumb and useless drama
Calix is a slight town read to me currently. I agreed that Skynx's posts were useless until he posted about the votes.
This early read on Foreman is really odd, just kinda rambly and the two bolded lines both contradict each other and add nothing. I also noticed that Darth made posts all day long about Exo being scum. Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 09:04 darthfoley wrote:
I also find it weird that
1. ExO came in
2. Got scum read and pressured
3. Weak case on Calix
4. Other people came in, namely NU, and changed the conversation
5. ExO peaced out and the current 1v1s are NU vs. Calix, Foreman vs. mahrgell
6. People seemingly forget about ExO Show nested quote +On November 03 2016 12:30 darthfoley wrote:
ExO's filter is also relatively assheeks. I need Rels in the building Show nested quote +On November 04 2016 03:01 darthfoley wrote:
If ExO continues to be this underwhelming and inactivate I think I'd be okay with an exO lynch But only joins the wagon after making a big post about why he doesn't think I'm scum anymore and that Exo is the better lynch. Kinda feels like he just kept this scumread on Exo in his back pocket, bringing it out when useful but not committing to it till it became clear that Exo was going to be lynched. Unfortunately I didn't find anything that really makes me think he is either town or scum. Just this stuff that stands out as kinda weird to me. Moving Darth to a solid null read.
1. I don't see a contradiction in those two lines that you quoted. Isn't he saying "I don't see any posts that would make me think anyone is lock scum. Therefore Foreman thinking that Calix is lock scum, especially on D1, is a bit scummy to me."
That's how I read them anyway.
2. A better point. I'll await darthfoley's explanation here.
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Man, having half the players not even do anything during the night phase is tilting.
This is totally not a page-top post.
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EPT
