[T] Dota 2 Mafia - Page 149

On October 25 2016 01:28 iamperfection wrote:
If you thought I was scum Kurumi why did you perform an action that would make me take less damage?

This is why I would like you guys to only start a second wagon that was started by a more or less townread person.

On October 25 2016 00:27 Kurumi wrote:


Nothing is wrong in his filter + context - he has not spammed the thread, did not bicker with anyone, he left riff-raff where it was and reads Lord Tolkien Mafia for all the correct reasons.

On October 25 2016 00:40 Koshi wrote:
Ok guys. Let's say I need to afk the next 5 hours and need to send in now. I need to know there will be at least 6-7 votes on Lunatic today. He also needs to be the second lynch. Well, he doesn't have to be but if he is main lynch it is overkill obviously. If he doesn't have the votes he wont get 1-shotted.

On October 25 2016 01:46 beentheredonethat wrote:
Also guys, Vivax and/or Hamazuro, not outside of those.

On October 25 2016 01:36 beentheredonethat wrote:
So, last 10 minutes for me before I'm off to Volleyball. Training ends at ~10.15/10.30pm so maybe I'll make it in time to deadline. Will be around shortly before or after 11pm.

I don't feel good at believing Koshi's claim. I want to explain my stance on this a bit more before I depart and I ask you guys to carefully consider if you are believing the claim or not.

Contra

1. It was an easy claim.
There is no way that a role would counterclaim what Koshi claimed. Given it's a themed game and we do not know which roles are in besides the flipped ones and our own roles, there is absolutely no problem for Koshi to fake claim a double lynch ability.

2. Day and Night 1
Day 1 and Night 1 Koshi was absolutely scummy. At no point he tried to solve the game. His replies under pressure were full of bragging, derailing, and not even close to a serious discussion that would even remotely imply he is town. He has been scumread all game and the reasons for that read are absolutely solid. Besides the claim, there absolutely no reason to not scumread Koshi. His "cases" he put up are salty, WIFOM and bad. There is absolutely no effort that could be interpreted as townie besides the claim.

3. Ability volatility
From what Koshi said, he has an ability to make two lynches flip within one day. First of all, reading my own abilities (which fully resolve around HP mechanics and in no way about anything else, yes, that's as close to a VT claim as it gets in this game) makes me feel really uncertain about that kind of ability being town-aligned.

Worst case: two town wagons flip.
Medium case: one scum, one town flips.
Best case: two scums flip.

I'm not good at math but given the likely scum to town distribution, I think the worst case is way more likely than the best case. This ability will become good in certain scenarios, agreed - but it is such a potential game changer that I don't think hosts will put this ability into the game. Although, if I'm really honest here, if that ability is indeed part of the game then it will most likely be a town ability as scum would be safe and sound to use that ability.

4. Koshi is not today's lynch
Which makes his rage hard to believe. Koshi should know he's not going to be the lynch today. He should know that we're all rather calm players that are willing to reconsider if we are given solid stuff to work with. He's however not even trying to go down the reasonable road, although I explicitely offered him the opportunity to do so by asking him to calm down, leave the thread, return with solid reads, analysis and simply more town behaviour. Keep in mind he still hasn't dropped a solid read list that we could work with if he flipped town at any point. There's literally nothing of value in Koshi's filter that we could work with if he flipped town. A worthless Lunatic push is the best he could do thus far.

Pro

1. Most likely, town ability
As written above, I do not think that hosts would put that ability in the hands of mafia. That would be really imbalanced, basically allowing mafia to mislynch two people at once. Given we all have attacks and are likely to kill each other that would be really, really tough to deal with.

2. Koshi's rage over the day
Although I talked about that at the contra section already, I think there's also the possibility that this is town rage and genuine.
Early Koshi felt lackluster, not really caring, and I thought this is highly indicative of his scum style of the previous 3 games of which 2 I hosted. In none of those games I have seen Koshi rage that hard when being under pressure. On the other hand, in none of these games was Koshi as much under pressure as he is right now.

Those are the cons and pros that I can come up with at this point.
For my judgement, this is not enough pro to believe the claim. This is why I would like you guys to only start a second wagon that was started by a more or less townread person. I would suggest taco bell hamazuro guy to be the second wagon. Yes, there's a chance he might be replaced or modkilled - but as ritoky said, we can't be sure of that. We should definitely go for the people that are not playing the game at all, as others already mentioned, and I think that guy is a good target.
Why not Lunatic or Skynx? Lunatic is the easy target. He's doing not much. But the thing is that Koshi has been pushing him a lot. So either it's bussing, starting from D1, or scum!Koshi trying to direct one more mislynch, or town!Koshi vs. whatever Lunatic, I don't care. Either way, we should re-evaluate Lunatic once Koshi has flipped. Koshi will flip (or not) depending on what's happening at this very deadline. This is why I wouldn't choose Lunatic for today's second wagon, although he's worth a lynch, vig shot, or simply stacked damage after all.

Skynx on the other hand is actually every now and again trying to play the game. I have him as a scumread but I really need to reevaluate his filter, I haven't done so yet, so a full day cycle is currently missing in my read of Skynx. Also, note how Koshi voted him, then switched to Lunatic.

(Also, look at Artanis, who was scumread by HF (confirmed town) and voted with Koshi on Skynx and on Lunatic, which can be coincidence, but it worries me. Talking more about Artanis: his thoughts over the day feel reasonable and I tend to actually like what he's writing. However his push on GlowingBear in the context of Lunatic, Skynx, and Vivax being the lynches today, it feels empty. Pressuring GB when town is on other persons with a single vote won't work. It's also very safe to go for GB as scum since GB is not playing the game, low hanging fruits and shit, easy target to appear pushy but stay under the radar).

Also, still, someone should evaluate NocturneMage's filter! There must be a reason why he was killed N1 shortly after having replaced in.

On October 24 2016 23:56 Lunaticman wrote:


The lynch on Koshi day one should have been successful, he played awful and was way to engaged for a regular townie. His tone and meta is/was way to easy to read. Just look at him now, using game mechanics to scare you into not lynching him. The mafia obviously saved him by going for HF:s lynch instead day 1.

Art is purely based on HF, you were a 100% lock scum read. I have no reason why I shouldn't trust HF:s read.

On October 25 2016 00:16 iamperfection wrote:
I have no problem simply auto lynching every person that comes to the thread saying they don't have time or are busy I don't give a crap about your "busy" personal lives here

On October 25 2016 02:03 Acrofales wrote:
Everything took longer than I thought. Omw to the train home, so phone playing for a bit more with a nearly empty battery. Will look into lunatic lynch. Trains must not be too close. Don't want to make it possible for vote shenanigans. I'd say 13 on Vivax, 1 koshi, rest on 2nd wagon.

On October 25 2016 00:51 iamperfection wrote:
Who will be here at deadline raise hands