[T] Dota 2 Mafia - Page 150

On October 25 2016 01:17 beentheredonethat wrote:
Korokos vote doesn't count. Just saying. Not voting are four people yet only three appear there. Also I know it for sure but I was told to not say how I got that information.

On October 25 2016 01:36 beentheredonethat wrote:
So, last 10 minutes for me before I'm off to Volleyball. Training ends at ~10.15/10.30pm so maybe I'll make it in time to deadline. Will be around shortly before or after 11pm.

I don't feel good at believing Koshi's claim. I want to explain my stance on this a bit more before I depart and I ask you guys to carefully consider if you are believing the claim or not.

Contra

1. It was an easy claim.
There is no way that a role would counterclaim what Koshi claimed. Given it's a themed game and we do not know which roles are in besides the flipped ones and our own roles, there is absolutely no problem for Koshi to fake claim a double lynch ability.

2. Day and Night 1
Day 1 and Night 1 Koshi was absolutely scummy. At no point he tried to solve the game. His replies under pressure were full of bragging, derailing, and not even close to a serious discussion that would even remotely imply he is town. He has been scumread all game and the reasons for that read are absolutely solid. Besides the claim, there absolutely no reason to not scumread Koshi. His "cases" he put up are salty, WIFOM and bad. There is absolutely no effort that could be interpreted as townie besides the claim.

3. Ability volatility
From what Koshi said, he has an ability to make two lynches flip within one day. First of all, reading my own abilities (which fully resolve around HP mechanics and in no way about anything else, yes, that's as close to a VT claim as it gets in this game) makes me feel really uncertain about that kind of ability being town-aligned.

Worst case: two town wagons flip.
Medium case: one scum, one town flips.
Best case: two scums flip.

I'm not good at math but given the likely scum to town distribution, I think the worst case is way more likely than the best case. This ability will become good in certain scenarios, agreed - but it is such a potential game changer that I don't think hosts will put this ability into the game. Although, if I'm really honest here, if that ability is indeed part of the game then it will most likely be a town ability as scum would be safe and sound to use that ability.

4. Koshi is not today's lynch
Which makes his rage hard to believe. Koshi should know he's not going to be the lynch today. He should know that we're all rather calm players that are willing to reconsider if we are given solid stuff to work with. He's however not even trying to go down the reasonable road, although I explicitely offered him the opportunity to do so by asking him to calm down, leave the thread, return with solid reads, analysis and simply more town behaviour. Keep in mind he still hasn't dropped a solid read list that we could work with if he flipped town at any point. There's literally nothing of value in Koshi's filter that we could work with if he flipped town. A worthless Lunatic push is the best he could do thus far.

Pro

1. Most likely, town ability
As written above, I do not think that hosts would put that ability in the hands of mafia. That would be really imbalanced, basically allowing mafia to mislynch two people at once. Given we all have attacks and are likely to kill each other that would be really, really tough to deal with.

2. Koshi's rage over the day
Although I talked about that at the contra section already, I think there's also the possibility that this is town rage and genuine.
Early Koshi felt lackluster, not really caring, and I thought this is highly indicative of his scum style of the previous 3 games of which 2 I hosted. In none of those games I have seen Koshi rage that hard when being under pressure. On the other hand, in none of these games was Koshi as much under pressure as he is right now.

Those are the cons and pros that I can come up with at this point.
For my judgement, this is not enough pro to believe the claim. This is why I would like you guys to only start a second wagon that was started by a more or less townread person. I would suggest taco bell hamazuro guy to be the second wagon. Yes, there's a chance he might be replaced or modkilled - but as ritoky said, we can't be sure of that. We should definitely go for the people that are not playing the game at all, as others already mentioned, and I think that guy is a good target.
Why not Lunatic or Skynx? Lunatic is the easy target. He's doing not much. But the thing is that Koshi has been pushing him a lot. So either it's bussing, starting from D1, or scum!Koshi trying to direct one more mislynch, or town!Koshi vs. whatever Lunatic, I don't care. Either way, we should re-evaluate Lunatic once Koshi has flipped. Koshi will flip (or not) depending on what's happening at this very deadline. This is why I wouldn't choose Lunatic for today's second wagon, although he's worth a lynch, vig shot, or simply stacked damage after all.

Skynx on the other hand is actually every now and again trying to play the game. I have him as a scumread but I really need to reevaluate his filter, I haven't done so yet, so a full day cycle is currently missing in my read of Skynx. Also, note how Koshi voted him, then switched to Lunatic.

(Also, look at Artanis, who was scumread by HF (confirmed town) and voted with Koshi on Skynx and on Lunatic, which can be coincidence, but it worries me. Talking more about Artanis: his thoughts over the day feel reasonable and I tend to actually like what he's writing. However his push on GlowingBear in the context of Lunatic, Skynx, and Vivax being the lynches today, it feels empty. Pressuring GB when town is on other persons with a single vote won't work. It's also very safe to go for GB as scum since GB is not playing the game, low hanging fruits and shit, easy target to appear pushy but stay under the radar).

Also, still, someone should evaluate NocturneMage's filter! There must be a reason why he was killed N1 shortly after having replaced in.

On October 21 2016 05:05 Lunaticman wrote:


I think it is very shallow as expected day one. It felt like he just wanted to assign blame to someone. Throwing the first rock if you will.

I like your idea of building a town circle, that is always the most important thing the first two days.

I'm also sad to see you say you will never play again maybe your just not in the mood.

Also I'm off to bed nn.

On October 25 2016 02:23 Acrofales wrote:

There's something off about this post. It could be his reads progressing, but up until here he has yelled "HF scum! Lalalala TUNNEL" and except for the early koshi vote, that's pretty much it. Here he is seriously analyzing HF's read on Ritoky, and saying that a d1 read is very shallow. It doesn't seem like a natural progression to be considering the quality of HF's reads at this point (which means it's a scum fake read on HF, which went from fake tunnel to undecided without a clear thought pattern).

On October 25 2016 02:28 WaveofShadow wrote:

Why bother justifying this now when consensus has already mostly formed on him? Looks odd.

On October 25 2016 02:31 iamperfection wrote:
My hair on my neck acro

On October 25 2016 02:34 WaveofShadow wrote:
Yup. Defs getting the jibblies.
For some reason I feel like him and Artanis can't be scum together. Dunno why I think that though. Maybe cause 'A' names

On October 25 2016 02:30 GlowingBear wrote:
Wtf how am I not playinf the game, I'm postibg here every couple if hours and I already gave reads I'VE got.

I'm not being useless, I'm giving bits of information every time.

I already said I think ptmc is town.
I now think Artanis is town based on meta - I don't think this is the way he plays as mafia, he is not too try hard and he is not accusing people and sticking to that argument without rethinking them. His approach on me looks pretty townie IMO.
I also think Koshi might be town, his posts seems very fluid with not so much thought put on them.

Ritoky is a question mark. He doesn't seem very interested into solving the game. Could be mafia.

Acrofales was very invested in the game, but his efforts kinda dropped. He was (or is) one of the most active players in the game, but I don't see him putting effort into actually having his targets lynched. Yes, I know Vivax is getting lynched, but I don't remember him being thoughtful about the future cycles.

Iamp may be town and I can be paranoid, but I think I have a solid argument on him being town.

I haven't read Skynx's post with much attention but I have a gut feeling he could be mafia. I can't explain why. It's a feeling.

That's all I have for now

On October 25 2016 02:38 Acrofales wrote:
Actually, this isn't new either. For some reason there are always people calling me scum until I get NK'd and flip green as grass. So whatever. I'll just keep doing what I'm doing and you can go suck it.

On October 25 2016 02:38 Acrofales wrote:
Actually, this isn't new either. For some reason there are always people calling me scum until I get NK'd and flip green as grass. So whatever. I'll just keep doing what I'm doing and you can go suck it.