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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
Xatalos and Jealous as well. 90%+ Town: SEQ Calix Rels Jealous Town lean (in order) Skynx Stutters Xatalos DanelerH ptmc My instincts tell me I think one of the scums is probably hiding in the town lean list though. Scumlean: DYH - I like some of Skynx's posts on him - and his vote reasoning looks really bad once I've re-read it as well. Superbia - I'm not a fan of how he wanted to go after me - the reasoning was weak, many others did not agree and I know i'm town (OMGUS?) | ||
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Jealous
10253 Posts
On September 26 2016 11:56 DoYouHas wrote: GRAH, I CAN'T MAKE IT STICK For everything I don't like about you and think makes you scum: Your early fluff, non-committal, over-defensiveness, appeals to your noobieness, misrepresenting me, buddying Calix, looking at the proposal of multiple wagons from a mafia perspective instead of a town one (looking at it as a trap to be avoided instead of as an opportunity for better VCA) I can't seem to find the mafia actions in your play around the lynch. If I'm having trouble convincing myself of probably the most important part when I undoubtedly have my confirmation bias glasses on it probably isn't there. I was seeing your tonal shifts from casually attacking Luna to guarded consideration then back to casual attacking as very odd. But the thing I can't figure out if you are scum is why you would leave your vote on Luna and not Stutters before the wagon on Luna got rolling. This post: It doesn't fit or is significantly more clever than I am. Damn, damn, damn. I hate having no scum reads. I really do need to get to bed though. See you all with the daypost. A little bit of misrepresentation here but if you're not pursuing this any further for now, might as well leave it alone. Thanks for being honest (outside of the misrep). If you need some scum reads, grab one of mine! Otherwise, I hope you reach some conclusions by D2. There has definitely been some questionable behavior from the people in my list, at the very least. I will be fleshing those out in D2 as well. Good night. | ||
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Jealous
10253 Posts
Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options: A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked. B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now. C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible. D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum. I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads. Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think? | ||
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
So last night, Luna was looking pretty bad, after he made the blue post - he got really defensive. I was thinking about voting for him at that time - but no one had town read him, defended him, or really push another lynch. This made me fear he was town. I even asked him straight up who he'd like to lynch. So this morning, all he had was two new posts - and they had 0 usable content. It was all "why you calling me mafia etc". Skynx wanted to go for another lynch as well now (DYH in post #462) With the above new information, I put my vote on Luna and he never posted again. | ||
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Jealous
10253 Posts
On September 26 2016 13:50 scott31337 wrote: So I'll try to explain it better for you- So last night, Luna was looking pretty bad, after he made the blue post - he got really defensive. I was thinking about voting for him at that time - but no one had town read him, defended him, or really push another lynch. This made me fear he was town. I even asked him straight up who he'd like to lynch. So this morning, all he had was two new posts - and they had 0 usable content. It was all "why you calling me mafia etc". Skynx wanted to go for another lynch as well now (DYH in post #462) With the above new information, I put my vote on Luna and he never posted again. I see, this can actually make sense. I don't remember if you had other posts around that one that could have explained it better, but in a vacuum it looked just terrible. I feel like you worded it in the worst possible way. I might actually buy this, but for now the only thing I'm sure of is that I'd vote DHY over you (even though you both successfully improving my opinion of you, to varying degrees). I'd take another look at you after some posts and the night flip of course. | ||
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Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
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Superbia
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Superbia
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Superbia
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Jealous
10253 Posts
On September 26 2016 14:55 Superbia wrote: Somewhere in eod Are you going to leave it at that or...? | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 26 2016 13:30 Jealous wrote: @Scott: Interesting. I agree with quite a few of those reads. Acott, maybe you could explain what you were thinking in your vote post better? It looked pretty damn scummy in retrospect, don't you agree? Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options: A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked. B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now. C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible. D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum. I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads. Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think? I really, really don't understand your way of thinking. If scott is scum he's gonna push a mislynch. Why are you dismissing B) just because "scum!scott would have some balls to push a mislynch on DYH" ? If scott is scum and DYH town, he is merely pushing the easiest mislynch available, not making a big play! | ||
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Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
On September 26 2016 15:28 Jealous wrote: Are you going to leave it at that or...? Yes | ||
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Superbia
Netherlands8889 Posts
I am fine with hanging back and letting the newer players solve this game. Maybe explore tinfoil a bit | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 26 2016 06:18 Jealous wrote: I've posted what I deem a sufficient amount about Lunaticman prior to the vote; I actually voted for him in this thread much earlier than most of you, from what I can tell, but I forgot that I have to vote in the other thread. As far as my thoughts as I'm catching up, here's what I have (pretty loose, not on a PC until tomorrow and working until then): Scott - In my experience Scott is always a man of few words so I don't feel his brevity is AI. Superbia - welcome back, his type of spam might be what this game needed to be revitalized. I would like to see him speaking more specifically and referencing posts more clearly beyond just saying "I read his filter and I feel x." He also has the convenience of arriving into the thread when everything is more or less set in stone. But, because I myself am busy, I can relate. Calix - am slightly surprised by her willingness to judge me for not being very confident or conclusive on people in D1 as I feel she knows me well enough to know that this isn't out of the norm. D2 is when I always do a lot of work, so I don't mind that you guys (particularly Rels) are giving me some crap over being soft-spoken because that will all change when I have concrete things to work off of and tie to posts. Daneler - might be riding on the good feels he got from my posts before I became inactive, but he should have picked up on the general turn of town's opinion on me and the fact that it is reasonable I'm a vacuum. I agree with Rels that I wasn't a big fan of his list post. Rels - staying on the ball and being assertive with his position, which I like. His going after me is forgivable because as I said it is justifiable and will not be the case come D2. Xan - it's awkward for me to look back on my phone to make sure that it was him trying to create a second train, but if it was indeed him I'd have to say it seems like a stupid thing to attempt so openly and at this juncture. Stupidity isn't necessarily AI but in theory, taking votes off Lunaticman and creating the potential for shennanies (which are popular on TL and thus unfortunately not always AI)... Could be a dumb scum move. If it was not Xan who did this, attribute the same reasoning to whoever else it was that initiated this thought, and apologies to Xan. Stutter - still haven't seen anything from him that would make me change my mind about him being my #2 lynch pick. Nothing that I recall off the top of my head sticks out, but I'm not fully caught up so maybe I'll add some more as I walk to the store before EoD. Hmm. Looking back on this, it does seem pretty odd. I mean... The scumread(?) on me is apparently based on the fact that I entertained the thought of having two wagons rather than just all votes on Lunatic for more useful vote analysis (no matter Lunatic's alignment, this vote distribution wouldn't tell much regarding the voters' alignments at that rate). However... Jealous feels like he already knows Lunatic's alignment here and prepares for future pushes a bit prematurely... I mean... The whole premise is that any vote off of Lunatic = scummy, despite the fact that Lunatic's alignment was unknown, it wouldn't be scummy even if Lunatic was scum (provided that he would still have the majority of votes) and I wasn't even prepared to vote Scott personally as the second wagon like had been suggested... It's just an odd accusation that feels somehow like Jealous knew what Lunatic would flip beforehand and prepared based on that knowledge. Hm. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote: ##Vote: Luna Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. Hm, yeah, I guess this is one of the worst votes on Lunatic. Reminds me of how I voted on my scummate with the wording "It's too bad but looks like he's scum" a long time ago :D I wonder, is the only reasoning here that he went away later in the day? | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 26 2016 03:58 DoYouHas wrote: Activity levels are low and there are better lynch targets than you, especially if your going to ramp up. DH's tunnel onto Luna is very contrived with no follow through. Pair that with his questionable early posting and it feels like scum to me. Maybe he brings something to the table before deadline now, but it feels like he tunneled just long enough to get the spotlight on someone else then disappeared. Luna made an anti-town play and has essentially shut down since coming under the displeasure of the thread, making him a very reasonable lynch and possible scum. I don't think making a meta read is in any way alignment indicative but I appear to be in the minority on that. Jealous started with fluff, then stirred the pot, and finished by being super non-commital. Townies should be trusting there own judgement over that of people's whose alignments are uncertain. Also potentially scum. Well, to be fair, DYH did already list Lunatic as potential scum earlier. | ||
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ptmc
Finland306 Posts
Case a) Lunatic sees his scum buddy taking weak hits and wants to push him into a town pile Case b) Lunatic wants to town read someone so that he himself is townread Does anyone see other possible causes for Lunatics action? Because to me, case b) makes little sense. Case a) would make Stutters scum. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On September 26 2016 18:19 ptmc wrote: In my mind, there is a 50/50 on wether stutters is scum purely based on lunatics play. Stutters drops a lot of fluff into the thread, then disappears to the bar. He gets some flak for it and slight scum leans by at least Calix. Case a) Lunatic sees his scum buddy taking weak hits and wants to push him into a town pile Case b) Lunatic wants to town read someone so that he himself is townread Does anyone see other possible causes for Lunatics action? Because to me, case b) makes little sense. Case a) would make Stutters scum. Scum very rarely hard townread their teammates, especially when the teammate in question is scumread by some people, like it was the case. Stutters is like 99% town. | ||
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Xatalos
Finland9675 Posts
On September 26 2016 18:19 ptmc wrote: In my mind, there is a 50/50 on wether stutters is scum purely based on lunatics play. Stutters drops a lot of fluff into the thread, then disappears to the bar. He gets some flak for it and slight scum leans by at least Calix. Case a) Lunatic sees his scum buddy taking weak hits and wants to push him into a town pile Case b) Lunatic wants to town read someone so that he himself is townread Does anyone see other possible causes for Lunatics action? Because to me, case b) makes little sense. Case a) would make Stutters scum. Hm. Personally I think it's not very likely that his only strong read would be on a teammate... It's kind of bound to cause difficulties if he had to explain the read and stuff. | ||
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