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Newbie Student Mafia XXIII - Page 36

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 14:56 GMT
#701
On September 26 2016 23:53 Stutters695 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
On September 26 2016 23:47 Stutters695 wrote:
Just woke up. You guys aren't lynching me d2 lol.

why not?


1) I'm town

2) if I was scum and Luna said that, I would have slapped some rockets on and bussed him straight to the moon.

3) I don't get mislynched unless I'm straight afk essentially.


1) who's not?

2) Maybe you did?

3) So if we lynch you it is not a mislynch?
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 26 2016 14:57 GMT
#702
Oh wait. Skynx is also possibly not town. I had a reason as to why I call him not mafia but I forgot.

Anyway plenty of time and lynches to go so yeah.

Kill scott. Have DYH and Skynx fight it out gladiator style.

Keep an eye on Xat and the frenchman.
Minimal effort.
ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 14:57 GMT
#703
On September 26 2016 23:53 Superbia wrote:
I did the math and we should kill scott and giacomo (dyh).

Alternatively there could also be a mafia between Xat or Rels.


Any preference between Xat or Rels? If i had to pick between the two i would go for Xat.
Still not sold on Stutters? Do you see anyting towny in his filter?
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 26 2016 14:59 GMT
#704
On September 26 2016 23:57 ptmc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:53 Superbia wrote:
I did the math and we should kill scott and giacomo (dyh).

Alternatively there could also be a mafia between Xat or Rels.


Any preference between Xat or Rels? If i had to pick between the two i would go for Xat.
Still not sold on Stutters? Do you see anyting towny in his filter?


Yeah Rels had some semi-funny stuff to say. He's also a cool guy. So keep your main eye on Xat and your secondary eye on Rels.
Minimal effort.
ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 14:59 GMT
#705
On September 26 2016 23:57 Superbia wrote:
Oh wait. Skynx is also possibly not town. I had a reason as to why I call him not mafia but I forgot.

Anyway plenty of time and lynches to go so yeah.

Kill scott. Have DYH and Skynx fight it out gladiator style.

Keep an eye on Xat and the frenchman.


So basically my reads minus stutters. Care to elaborate why not him?
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 26 2016 14:59 GMT
#706
Also I have nothing really solid on stutters but I think he's town.
Minimal effort.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 26 2016 14:59 GMT
#707
On September 26 2016 23:59 ptmc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:57 Superbia wrote:
Oh wait. Skynx is also possibly not town. I had a reason as to why I call him not mafia but I forgot.

Anyway plenty of time and lynches to go so yeah.

Kill scott. Have DYH and Skynx fight it out gladiator style.

Keep an eye on Xat and the frenchman.


So basically my reads minus stutters. Care to elaborate why not him?


You have some semi-good reads then. ;p
Minimal effort.
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 26 2016 15:01 GMT
#708
Here's what's going to happen. I'm going to type some stuff up. Usually I would wait until EoD, but I work before then so I'll just throw it out. You guys will be like "wow, he does things and they make some sense, this dude is probably town." Just know you're cutting into my Overwatch time and that makes me sad.

I have 100% confidence I won't be lynched.
Superbia
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Netherlands8889 Posts
September 26 2016 15:01 GMT
#709
I have decently uninformed opinions but they're probably still correct.
Minimal effort.
ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 15:07 GMT
#710
On September 27 2016 00:01 Stutters695 wrote:
Here's what's going to happen. I'm going to type some stuff up. Usually I would wait until EoD, but I work before then so I'll just throw it out. You guys will be like "wow, he does things and they make some sense, this dude is probably town." Just know you're cutting into my Overwatch time and that makes me sad.

I have 100% confidence I won't be lynched.


So you're not really worried about a night kill taking all your valuable insight to the grave?
All the people i know seem sadder while playing overwatch, but maybe you are an exception
Stutters695
Profile Joined July 2012
2610 Posts
September 26 2016 15:18 GMT
#711
On September 27 2016 00:07 ptmc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2016 00:01 Stutters695 wrote:
Here's what's going to happen. I'm going to type some stuff up. Usually I would wait until EoD, but I work before then so I'll just throw it out. You guys will be like "wow, he does things and they make some sense, this dude is probably town." Just know you're cutting into my Overwatch time and that makes me sad.

I have 100% confidence I won't be lynched.


So you're not really worried about a night kill taking all your valuable insight to the grave?
All the people i know seem sadder while playing overwatch, but maybe you are an exception


That's a negative Ghost Rider. I meant EoN, not EoD.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 26 2016 15:20 GMT
#712
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
I went through the Lunatic trainwreck again and tried to objectively sum up what happend chronologically, open for "unbiased" read:

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post
Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)
DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic
Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees
Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic
Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where I give my reasons why I think a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls me out because ptmc "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ
Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it
Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"
Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ
Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch
Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate
Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.

Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like his two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work



And my comments for it, marked in red stuff i think is scummy, in green things i think is towny (obviously in the light of the successful lynch) with some comments centered where i needed to say some more

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post

this is maybe not red, but at least weird


Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)

again, at least weird, since it had obviously already sparked discussion


DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic


I guess this is Lunatics blue role claim on stutters working out as intended?


Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees

Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic

Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where ptmc gives his reasons why he thinks a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls ptmc out because he "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ

Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it

Mafia feeling out the waters if it is bussing time?


Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"

This looks so much like bussing, especially with him ignoring those posts previously


Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ

still no word on lunatic except the earlier "no comment"


Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch

Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate

Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic

i will not give green "points" from here on for voting lunatic, since the train has reached critical mass already


On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.



Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like scotts two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work


Take home message says scott had access to very bad posts by Lunatic way before he goes afk, but choses to ignore them. Only when the train has become unstoppable for mafia he "revisits" them and now they are strong enough to lynch for.

Other reads from the Lunaticman-Lynch:
solid town:
DanelerH
Calix

town lean:
Jealous
Rels
SEQ
superbia (for actually noticing scott)

inconsistent:
Xatalos
Skynx

scum leans (lynch all day err'day)
Scott, stutters, dyh

This is quite impressive p: in particular this made me reread Jealous post where he called Lunatic's post retarded. It's very true that it's a strong word to use on your teammate so it is a town indicator for Jealous.
Stutters is still 99% town because of how Lunatic treated him. And Superbia did like nothing this game yet, if scott is scum I agree that he's a unlikely partner but until that happens he's not town. Other than that, this list is pretty good
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 26 2016 15:21 GMT
#713
On September 26 2016 23:53 Superbia wrote:
I did the math and we should kill scott and giacomo (dyh).

Alternatively there could also be a mafia between Xat or Rels.

Replace my name by you and Skynx and we're OK.
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10108 Posts
September 26 2016 15:23 GMT
#714
On September 26 2016 17:06 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 13:30 Jealous wrote:
@Scott: Interesting. I agree with quite a few of those reads. Acott, maybe you could explain what you were thinking in your vote post better? It looked pretty damn scummy in retrospect, don't you agree?

Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options:

A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked.

B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now.

C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible.

D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum.

I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads.

Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think?

I really, really don't understand your way of thinking. If scott is scum he's gonna push a mislynch. Why are you dismissing B) just because "scum!scott would have some balls to push a mislynch on DYH" ? If scott is scum and DYH town, he is merely pushing the easiest mislynch available, not making a big play!

That's more or less what I said. The reason it might have come off as me describing a big play is because I feel that if he succeeds in getting the lynch on a town DYH, Scott is next on the chopping block, after which we'd presumably have only 1 scum left. The reason I didn't find it likely is because it seems like an unwinnable scenario and I wasn't sure if Scott would go for it.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Jealous
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
10108 Posts
September 26 2016 15:26 GMT
#715
Great posts by Daneler and ptmc. I did something similar in my first mafia game this year and people were calling me out for being a try - hard or whatnot, but it's such a blessing for people to construct good cases that have a lot of summary and post referencing, because not everyone has the time to create such a case themselves. Definite townie points from me.
"The right to vote is only the oar of the slaveship, I wanna be free." -- бум бум сучка!
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 26 2016 15:27 GMT
#716
On September 27 2016 00:23 Jealous wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 17:06 Rels wrote:
On September 26 2016 13:30 Jealous wrote:
@Scott: Interesting. I agree with quite a few of those reads. Acott, maybe you could explain what you were thinking in your vote post better? It looked pretty damn scummy in retrospect, don't you agree?

Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options:

A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked.

B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now.

C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible.

D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum.

I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads.

Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think?

I really, really don't understand your way of thinking. If scott is scum he's gonna push a mislynch. Why are you dismissing B) just because "scum!scott would have some balls to push a mislynch on DYH" ? If scott is scum and DYH town, he is merely pushing the easiest mislynch available, not making a big play!

That's more or less what I said. The reason it might have come off as me describing a big play is because I feel that if he succeeds in getting the lynch on a town DYH, Scott is next on the chopping block, after which we'd presumably have only 1 scum left. The reason I didn't find it likely is because it seems like an unwinnable scenario and I wasn't sure if Scott would go for it.

This doesn't make sense if you think about it. If scott is scum and DYH is town, scott easiest path to survival right now is aiming for a DYH ML. It doesn't matter that it leaves him in a worse position D3 - it's better than dying D2.
ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 15:27 GMT
#717
On September 27 2016 00:20 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
I went through the Lunatic trainwreck again and tried to objectively sum up what happend chronologically, open for "unbiased" read:

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post
Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)
DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic
Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees
Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic
Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where I give my reasons why I think a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls me out because ptmc "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ
Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it
Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"
Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ
Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch
Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate
Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.

Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like his two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work



And my comments for it, marked in red stuff i think is scummy, in green things i think is towny (obviously in the light of the successful lynch) with some comments centered where i needed to say some more

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post

this is maybe not red, but at least weird


Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)

again, at least weird, since it had obviously already sparked discussion


DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic


I guess this is Lunatics blue role claim on stutters working out as intended?


Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees

Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic

Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where ptmc gives his reasons why he thinks a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls ptmc out because he "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ

Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it

Mafia feeling out the waters if it is bussing time?


Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"

This looks so much like bussing, especially with him ignoring those posts previously


Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ

still no word on lunatic except the earlier "no comment"


Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch

Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate

Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic

i will not give green "points" from here on for voting lunatic, since the train has reached critical mass already


On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.



Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like scotts two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work


Take home message says scott had access to very bad posts by Lunatic way before he goes afk, but choses to ignore them. Only when the train has become unstoppable for mafia he "revisits" them and now they are strong enough to lynch for.

Other reads from the Lunaticman-Lynch:
solid town:
DanelerH
Calix

town lean:
Jealous
Rels
SEQ
superbia (for actually noticing scott)

inconsistent:
Xatalos
Skynx

scum leans (lynch all day err'day)
Scott, stutters, dyh

This is quite impressive p: in particular this made me reread Jealous post where he called Lunatic's post retarded. It's very true that it's a strong word to use on your teammate so it is a town indicator for Jealous.
Stutters is still 99% town because of how Lunatic treated him. And Superbia did like nothing this game yet, if scott is scum I agree that he's a unlikely partner but until that happens he's not town. Other than that, this list is pretty good


Even if scott is not scum, i still think superbia deserves some credit for giving a well based scumread. I'm not sold on the Stutters Lunatic interaction. Do you have anything else that makes him town? He has a weird, unbased SEQ-read crush, and his (non-)interaction with Lunaticman was just odd D1.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 26 2016 15:30 GMT
#718
On September 27 2016 00:27 ptmc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2016 00:20 Rels wrote:
On September 26 2016 23:47 ptmc wrote:
I went through the Lunatic trainwreck again and tried to objectively sum up what happend chronologically, open for "unbiased" read:

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post
Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)
DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic
Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees
Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic
Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where I give my reasons why I think a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls me out because ptmc "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ
Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it
Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"
Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ
Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch
Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate
Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.

Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like his two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work



And my comments for it, marked in red stuff i think is scummy, in green things i think is towny (obviously in the light of the successful lynch) with some comments centered where i needed to say some more

+ Show Spoiler +
Skynx calls Lunatics intro bad
Lunatic calls Stutters "so far the most obvious townie"
Already in the next post (1 hour later) Calix calls out Lunatic for his town-read
Skynx does not pick up on the read however, even though he quotes the post

this is maybe not red, but at least weird


Lunatic repeats his claim against Calix' push, but without any actual content
ptmc scum leans Lunatic for his town read
Rels wants Lunatic to explain his town read, but also likes Stutters for "weak reasons"
Lunatic doesn't want to explain his reasoning day 1
Rels is fine with leaving it at that, gives Lunatic a scum lean for it though
This triggers a short discussion between the two, not really yielding anything new
DanelerH pushes Stutters, gets called out by Xatalos
Xatalos town reads Stutters because he "gathers too much attention"
Rels agrees on Xatalos' push on DanelerH
Xatalos disregards Lunaticmans town read, Post 270: "Meh, I guess there isn't really much to talk about in their filters" (Their being Lunatic and Jealous)

again, at least weird, since it had obviously already sparked discussion


DanelerH pushes Lunatic to give his reasons for the town read, does not accept "I'll tell you later"
Lunatic now calls Stutters a blue role, and says that "if he dies it is on you [DanelerH] and Rels"
Jealous thinks both Stutters and Lunatic are "dodgy"
DanelerH keeps on pushing Lunatic
Xatalos wants to "focus on more helpful topics" instead of elaborating Lunaticmans town read.
Xatalos then calls out DanelerH for his push on Lunatic


I guess this is Lunatics blue role claim on stutters working out as intended?


Rels asks Lunatic why he thinks Stutters is a blue role, since blue roles and scum can be hard to differentiate
Xatalos again wants to stop the discussion since blue roles are involved
DanelerH doubts the blue role claim, thinks Lunaticman is faking it to not have to give a reason for the town read
Rels agrees

Xatalos reacts with
On September 25 2016 01:47 Xatalos wrote:
I guess that's a possibility. Well, let's see.

Lunatic tries to explain his town read/blue role read with meta, and stutters high activity. "Of course he has a power role". He is surprised that it escalated.
Xatalos again says he is unsure that we should discuss the topic further, but would be fine with an elaboration on the meta-read part
Skynx accuses DanelerH of tunneling on Lunatic
Scott scumreads DanelerH, while completely ignoring Lunatic

Skynx now asks about Lunatics town read
ptmc continues his push on Lunatic, and agrees on DanelerH's assumption on the blue role claim
Xatalos explains his reasoning on his scumlean on DanelerH, says that he throws more weak suspicion on a very easy target without committing, and that he dislikes discussing blue roles D1
Skynx calls DanelerH's reasoning for his Lunatic push "absurd"
Xatalos says that there hasn't been much meat to DanelerH's suspicions, but says that him committing to the Lunatic push might become interesting
ptmc calls out Skynx's attack on DanelerH
Xatalos says that there are people that have the gift of immediately noticing if someone has a BPR, and that we should stop elaborating on it in the thread
After a short discussion, where ptmc gives his reasons why he thinks a push on Lunatic is a good thing,
Xatalos says that he maybe was too tunneled on DanelerH, agrees that Lunatics tr was odd and that he would like to see a reason for it
Lunatic calls ptmc out because he "missed" how Rels and DanelerH pushed him to say Stutters is a blue
Stutters shows up, tries to focus on SEQ. "No comment on the blue stuff, scum can try to figure it out on their own"
DYH shows up, no comment on Lunatic at all, wants thoughts on me for thoughts on SEQ

Jealous shows up, calls out Lunatic for "retarded" anti town post
DYH reacts to Jealous' push on Lunatic, asking if he thinks it is bad play or scum
Jealous thinks it is almost too blatant to be scum
DYH wants to know if Jealous would lynch for it

Mafia feeling out the waters if it is bussing time?


Discussion between DYH and Stutters about other people
Jealous does not feel like his scum read is strong enough to warrant a vote, wants to hear other peoples opinion first
SEQ shows up, wants lunatic to elaborate on his town read and thinks that DanelerH tunnels too hard on him.
Still ends up with a scum lean on only Lunatic.

SEQ is now the first vote on Lunatic

Jealous says his vote is between Lunatic and Stutters
Scott returns, quotes Lunatics posts that were written well before scott went away. Now he says that he could lynch for them. Reassesses Stutters as well, arrives at "Wouldn't lynch today"

This looks so much like bussing, especially with him ignoring those posts previously


Scott is worried that noone town reads or defends Lunatic
Stutters again asks about SEQ

still no word on lunatic except the earlier "no comment"


Calix reappears, calls out Lunatic for his aggressive reactions, but thinks he is more anti-town than pro-scum
Calix also calls out DanelerH for his weak case
Calix is sceptical of a correct lynch between DanelerH and Lunatic
Jealous agrees on the "more anti town part" but sticks his vote on lunatic anyway

This vote was only posted in the discussion thread, not in the voting thread btw.

Calix reevaluates her Lunatic case, finds it a better lynch, votes on him
Lunatic shows up with another weak defense (there never is a mafia lynch day 1)
Scott has SEQ at just under null, asks Lunatic who he wants to lynch

Xatalos has Lunatic as a lynch candidate

Lunatic fluffs some more
Xatalos and Jealous call him out for it, Xatalos votes Lunatic
Rels returns, still pushes Lunatic for his tr
Skynx feels like Lunatic is just misinformed town
Xatalos questions this logic
Rels votes Lunatic
Skynx claims little time to play, feels like DYH is the best lynch and votes him
Superbia thinks his presence might not be needed after realizing lunatic is being lynched
DYH says DanelerH's tunnle onto Luna is contrived, Luna has made an anti town play and shut down, it feels like DYH doesn't like the lynch
DYH thinks that Luna and Dane are not scum together, but either of them could be scum
Rels doesn't agree with Skynx' assessment of DYH
Superbia wants to kill scott, but thinks Lunatic is a fine lynch as well
DYH votes Lunatic

i will not give green "points" from here on for voting lunatic, since the train has reached critical mass already


On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna

Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum.

Next post, scott votes Lunatic
On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him.



Rels and Stutters ask superbia why he dislikes scott
DanelerH now votes Lunatic with a reads list post
Calix doesn't like the new additions to the train on Lunatic
Rels dislikes DanelerH's reads list (most boring ever)
Xatalos also asks why superbia dislikes scott
Superbia doesn't like scotts two scumreads with no followup and his forced vote on luna
A lot of discussion happens, that is not relevant to this train (imo)
ptmc returns and moves his vote from stutters to lunatic
Stutters votes Lunatic so he doesn't forget while at work


Take home message says scott had access to very bad posts by Lunatic way before he goes afk, but choses to ignore them. Only when the train has become unstoppable for mafia he "revisits" them and now they are strong enough to lynch for.

Other reads from the Lunaticman-Lynch:
solid town:
DanelerH
Calix

town lean:
Jealous
Rels
SEQ
superbia (for actually noticing scott)

inconsistent:
Xatalos
Skynx

scum leans (lynch all day err'day)
Scott, stutters, dyh

This is quite impressive p: in particular this made me reread Jealous post where he called Lunatic's post retarded. It's very true that it's a strong word to use on your teammate so it is a town indicator for Jealous.
Stutters is still 99% town because of how Lunatic treated him. And Superbia did like nothing this game yet, if scott is scum I agree that he's a unlikely partner but until that happens he's not town. Other than that, this list is pretty good


Even if scott is not scum, i still think superbia deserves some credit for giving a well based scumread. I'm not sold on the Stutters Lunatic interaction. Do you have anything else that makes him town? He has a weird, unbased SEQ-read crush, and his (non-)interaction with Lunaticman was just odd D1.

I have a slight feeling that he is pretty relaxed which indicates town, but it is super weak. Lunatic's hard townread on Stutters is the main reason I think Stutters is town.
ptmc
Profile Joined June 2010
Finland306 Posts
September 26 2016 15:30 GMT
#719
On September 27 2016 00:27 Rels wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2016 00:23 Jealous wrote:
On September 26 2016 17:06 Rels wrote:
On September 26 2016 13:30 Jealous wrote:
@Scott: Interesting. I agree with quite a few of those reads. Acott, maybe you could explain what you were thinking in your vote post better? It looked pretty damn scummy in retrospect, don't you agree?

Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options:

A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked.

B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now.

C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible.

D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum.

I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads.

Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think?

I really, really don't understand your way of thinking. If scott is scum he's gonna push a mislynch. Why are you dismissing B) just because "scum!scott would have some balls to push a mislynch on DYH" ? If scott is scum and DYH town, he is merely pushing the easiest mislynch available, not making a big play!

That's more or less what I said. The reason it might have come off as me describing a big play is because I feel that if he succeeds in getting the lynch on a town DYH, Scott is next on the chopping block, after which we'd presumably have only 1 scum left. The reason I didn't find it likely is because it seems like an unwinnable scenario and I wasn't sure if Scott would go for it.

This doesn't make sense if you think about it. If scott is scum and DYH is town, scott easiest path to survival right now is aiming for a DYH ML. It doesn't matter that it leaves him in a worse position D3 - it's better than dying D2.


I guess Jealous would rather play more passive as mafia, rather than spearheading the ML. But i see nothing AI either way, more indicative of your playstyles.
Rels
Profile Joined August 2008
France13467 Posts
September 26 2016 15:31 GMT
#720
On September 27 2016 00:30 ptmc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 27 2016 00:27 Rels wrote:
On September 27 2016 00:23 Jealous wrote:
On September 26 2016 17:06 Rels wrote:
On September 26 2016 13:30 Jealous wrote:
@Scott: Interesting. I agree with quite a few of those reads. Acott, maybe you could explain what you were thinking in your vote post better? It looked pretty damn scummy in retrospect, don't you agree?

Now I'm wondering how to make sense of the DHY read. Here are the options:

A. They are both scum and Scott is bussing. Sadly, I don't see this as being very likely because it hasn't been that long since Calix's post so he wouldn't know if it overwhelmingly convinced town to the point where he would have to bus. OR MAYBE THAT'S WHAT HE WANTS US TO THINK! WIFOM. I also find this unlikely because the numbers would be horrendous for Scott going onwards, and there is no way he would be allowed to live to the final day. The only thing Scott would have going for him is if he is the GF and therefore if there is an investigator, they will become useless for the remainder of the game and Scott might get town cred for bussing that can't be factually revoked.

B. Scott is scum, DHY is town. I think this one is self-explanatory. Scott jumps on the train early on and is doing so out of self-defense. Chances are he would still be lynched next day with a green flip on DHY, but maybe he is hoping he could weasel his way out? This would effectively leave Scott in no better a position than in A., and I find it hard to believe he has balls of this size. Perhaps he is banking on his ally pulling through; that they are someone who is highly trusted right now.

C. Scott is town, DHY is scum. Again, pretty self-explanatory. Scott genuinely feels DHY is scum/is doing it to stay alive. Can't glean much from this perspective , seems logically possible.

D. They are both town. Similar mindset to C, except the outcome is worse for town. Seems less likely than C but I might be tunneling and thus want to believe at least one of them must be scum.

I definitely like Scott's post-accusation post better than DHY's, but DHY spent his remaining free time trying to create a case on me so didn't have time to do anything else I'm guessing. I'd like to hear what DHY comes back with in terms of reads so I can get a more solid opinion. I'd also like to see more detailed filter analysis from Scott on at least his scum reads and perhaps his soft town reads.

Sigh, it's hard for me to pick which option is the most likely. If I knew more about Scott as a player (whether he has the gumption to continue playing in options A or B). What does everyone else think?

I really, really don't understand your way of thinking. If scott is scum he's gonna push a mislynch. Why are you dismissing B) just because "scum!scott would have some balls to push a mislynch on DYH" ? If scott is scum and DYH town, he is merely pushing the easiest mislynch available, not making a big play!

That's more or less what I said. The reason it might have come off as me describing a big play is because I feel that if he succeeds in getting the lynch on a town DYH, Scott is next on the chopping block, after which we'd presumably have only 1 scum left. The reason I didn't find it likely is because it seems like an unwinnable scenario and I wasn't sure if Scott would go for it.

This doesn't make sense if you think about it. If scott is scum and DYH is town, scott easiest path to survival right now is aiming for a DYH ML. It doesn't matter that it leaves him in a worse position D3 - it's better than dying D2.


I guess Jealous would rather play more passive as mafia, rather than spearheading the ML. But i see nothing AI either way, more indicative of your playstyles.

I'm talking about scott here. I'm talking about how Jealous' dismissal on the scum!scott vs town!DYH scenario is bad.
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