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Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere.
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I'm going to bed. I'll almost certainly write a thing before EoN in case I die.
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On August 02 2016 12:43 Grackaroni wrote:
I think it's at least as face palm as my squirming theory.
This is utter nonsense. Because one is based on feelings and one is based off some cold, hard facts.
Your squirming theory was based on an unflipped association read between three people. All of whom, by your own pointing out, were on the same wagon (a damn risky thing for mafia to do, even to save one of their own, safest thing would have been to have one bus late on). And one of whom actually managed to hammer himself and is now confirmed town after being lynched. It had zero basis on any actual evidence and has been shown to be rubbish because mderg is confirmed to be not mafia.
On the other hand the thing Moosy pointed out (and I've detailed above) is based on actual, verifiable votes made. Not wild guesses based on future flips. It is a FACT that the two of you were consistently on votes with each other around the same time. It is also a FACT that silent consistently followed you onto the votes. I'm going to look through filters tomorrow properly to see the excuses given for the vote changes; but the fact that those events actually happened cannot be disputed and it looks dodgy as hell.
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Now it really is 5am and I'm going to sleep.
Right now I'm comfortable with a Grack lynch D2. But I'll look over everything tomorrow to see if anything else pops up.
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On August 02 2016 12:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere.
I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible.
KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make.
I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired.
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On August 02 2016 13:03 -Celestial- wrote:Show nested quote +On August 02 2016 12:43 -Celestial- wrote:
Tinfoil hat theory.
Grack didn't want to shenanie onto KSC because they're scumteam together.
KSC/Grack/silent
Early votes thrown onto KSC were done deliberately sloppy to distance themselves from each other whilst not actually pushing a possible legitimate lynch. Despite the votes nobody really made any effort to pressure KSC or push him as a possible scum wagon which let him just be lazy and fly under the radar.
This is probably garbage because I'm just blurting stuff out at nearly 5am after too much wine and making a bunch of assumptions and literally not checking anything. But I felt like I needed to write it down somewhere. I guess scott/Grack/silent is also possible. KSC votes were to try to do something to counteract the RB nonsense and give some kind of alternative wagon, especially if they expected a replacement given how things were going. Neither were ever on the RB/scott wagon at all despite it being a super easy plynch to make. I'm kinda making wild guesses here now. My mind is seriously drifting off into all kinds of weird ideas. Very tired.
See, Grack. THIS is facepalm worthy-stuff and I'll openly admit it. At least if I can't find anything to support these ideas tomorrow that is. Because I'm making a lot of assumptions and stuff when I'm far too tired to be thinking properly.
The fact your voting patterns match, however, is an actual thing that happened.
...I'm really going to bed now. Its ten past five in the morning. -_-
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On August 02 2016 13:08 Grackaroni wrote:
Aha! I predict you shall be baited yet. Since when is voting next to each other for three lynches a mafia strategy?
Its a poor strategy. But silent is a newbie. So anything is possible.
I say your cold, hard "facts" are cracking at the seams, while my feels were reals, indeed!
Your "feels were reals"?
Wait...you still thing mderg could be part of a me/Stutters/mderg scumteam? Despite him flipping town already? You what?
Serious answer:
(they're the same thing regardless. Both theories were based off "verifiable votes" and wild guesses based on future flips. Once I flip town your theory will look equally silly.)
They're not the same thing. Because I had no 'theories' in the post you quoted. I was simply expressing facts that Moosy drew my attention to. It is a FACT that that voting pattern happened. And you're trying really far, far too hard to dismiss this.
My ACTUAL theories, meanwhile, I have already just quoted above as being totally wild, unsubstantiated guesses. Proudly self-admittedly so. Though I'll probably have a dig about tomorrow to see if any posts fit either pattern.
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On August 02 2016 13:10 Grackaroni wrote:
Lol go to sleep Celestial.
That's probably a good idea. I legitimately have a headache right now. I slept really badly last night too so I've had like three hours sleep in the last forty hours or so.
Goodnight.
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I'm not really around just not (doing some writing, and going for dinner in a minute) but I still intend to post something before EoN as a legacy for if I get shot.
Also there's no way this Rels/Grack thing going on is TvT. No way.
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EBWOP: "I'm not really around (just doing..."
I dunno how that got so mangled there.
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Left this far, far too late to do the proper full analysis thing of absolutely everyone that I was going to do. No way I can filter dive EVERYONE and finish it in an hour before the deadline in case I die tonight. So I guess I'm doing it quick and dirty.
See you close to the night deadline!
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Legacy post in case I get shot. Likely to be some huge stream of consciousness stuff in here:
Stutters - Town. Unless he's done an absolutely incredible job in pocketing me he's town. He pointed out some stuff I liked early on which is why I was townleaning him in my D1 big set of reads and hasn't done anything to undermine that. Logic and progression in-thread seems to be coming from a town mentality. The stuff around deadline absolutely reinforces my belief that he's town. No mafia plays fast and loose like that around deadline when the wagon is already on a town player. None. No way, no chance.
MoosyDoosy - Probably town. I liked his content early on but there was something about his tone I didn't like. Post-flip he's been fantastic as far as I'm concerned. Seeming to come from a really town mentality. Kinda relies on what Grac flips though, if Grac flips something other than red I'd be dropping him back down to neutral.
Skynx - Kinda liked some of his earlier stuff. His reply to my big read post seemed reasonable enough. Calling for a lynch on Rels as well which is kinda bad (since Rels was looking at being replaced/modkilled at the time) but the reasoning is understandable (didn't like any other target). Calling out the votes being still on scott is okay. Calling out Grack vs btdt/stutters as not being a townfight is really good imo. Reasoning for vote seems alright. Reply to tinfoil idea is fine. His latest set of reads seem fine too and I'd be reasonably comfortable lynching into his scum reads right now.
Lunaticman - Stuff early on seemed pretty town-based. He was doing the right things and didn't do anything that raised any series red flags. I didn't like the fawning over me too much to be honest. Felt like he was trying to buddy up and pocket me but eh. I feel like the push to lynch Rels whilst he was inactive was a total waste but based on the comment about how Rels dodged five town lynches by being inactive in a previous game its forgivable; and I don't think someone wanting to look to lynch inactive mafia is unreasonable given how horribly inactive this game was for a long time. I wasn't entirely on board with his feelings about RB and scott but I do understand where his opinion is coming from so that's alright. Voting Rels is NAI at that point. Post-flip list is alright (though I'm really never a fan of people including themselves in lists of town aligned people; anyone can do it and it comes across to me as a blatant attempt at a psychological manipulation tactic of "doesn't my name look good next to these townies?") but nothing special. I'm still not liking his feeling on Scott though. The stuff with Grac and Rels is alright; I don't think there absolutely HAS to be mafia between Rels/Grac but there almost certainly is. I disagree with his latest point on Rels, in fact I think the way Rels went about it (i.e. completely full-on) is one of the few saving graces for Rels.
Townlean.
J Roc - Seemed to be going in the right direction of trying to solve the game as of my first list. Not much has changed since then. Probably my only concern is that he's pretty low content.
Townlean for now.
scott31337 - Dead null. His posts are okay but nothing special. The involvement in the mderg lynch was really nasty, as was agreeing with Grack about that 'squirming' thing because it was all based on horrible reasoning. Hasn't really posted much post-flip either. Not really putting an awful lot of pressure on anything now. Dunno, don't really like but I got way more scumfeel on other people right now.
beentheredonethat - Didn't like him last time. Since then he seems to have been coming from a bit more of a townie mindset (though I'm not convinced he's actually on the right path) and didn't even try to defend his reasoning that people were calling out as bad which comes across as kinda townie (mafia is more concerned about looking bad). I somewhat lean towards some of the recent sentiment that he's just low hanging fruit as far as a lynch is concerned; I don't think he's the best chance of hitting mafia if I had to lynch someone right this second but he's a very very dirty null.
KelsierSC - Done practically jack all. Said he wasn't going to deal with RB which is fine but has done practically nothing since the substitution either. Very dirty inactive tbh. Scum lean.
Rels - Really dirty after that mislynch. I called him out to convince me on mderg and he never really did, just pointed at the previous arguments which weren't great and, as now proven with the flip, were dead wrong. Busy fighting with Grack recently in an argument that I'm pretty sure isn't TvT; though whether it's an attempt to double-bus after that early lynch or a Scum vs Town fight I don't know. Sheeping Skynx's list is interesting but doesn't really help much. Only thing keeping me from a heavier red read than this is that I don't know if mafia goes ham like that on getting someone lynched D1 when the situation was already super fluid and a gentler approach would have had the same result. Because its left him very exposed. On the other hand he knows this and might figure he can get away with it in a newbie game with some less experienced players and just bank on name value. On the other hand...WIFOM WIFOM WIFOM
Scum lean.
silentwarrior - One-page filter. Huge tunnel on KSC right from the beginning for reasons that I felt were reaching. Hasn't really improved much. Now wants Stutters' head for reasons I don't much like either, again it felt like reaching incredibly far for a reason to want to lynch someone. Weak case that was easily explained. Flips to mderg to guarantee the lynch which is NAI since he was the other train. The voting pattern thing with Grack is weird as hell honestly. I'm not sure if it's TOO obvious or just a huge mafia mistake. Last post just looks like an OMGUS on Moosy tbh. And I don't like the way he brought up the thing about me and Stutters "buddying up" considering that the previous thing about us "buddying up" was based on the defence of mderg who flipped goddamn town. Really reaching for excuses to read scum into people that I have strong town indications on. Do. Not. Like. Lynch him.
Grackaroni - All the stuff lately has been pretty poor. I've had scumfeel on him all game. REALLY didn't like the whole "squirming" thing around the deadline. I like the take Stutters had on him a couple pages ago which is a decent summary of all the problems with him so far. Trying to throw confusion onto actual factual votes made was just nonsense, you can question the conclusions drawn, but not the actual votes made. Out of time to make a bigger case but most of what Stutters said last night in that big post is pretty reasonable.
Lynch? Right now I'd be happy with a lynch between silent and Grack. I'd say Grack for preference simply because firstly I think he'd be a more informative lynch and secondly because I think he's the more dangerous of the two. I'd take a side-option on Rels; he's an incredibly dangerous potential mafia but I'm not quite as sure about him right now as I am the other two.
People I want to see more from:
J Roc - You said you'd post post-flip thoughts "when you got home". You haven't. Please post some.
Kelsier - Post something. Anything.
scott - You're looking a little feeble. I'd like to see some extra aggression since I'm sure you can.
Okay done. Just in time before the deadline.
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...is this a never-ending night or something?
Are we supposed to have stopped talking now? I thought deadline was like an hour twenty ago. There hasn't even been a message to tell everyone to stop talking.
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On August 03 2016 09:28 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On August 03 2016 09:19 -Celestial- wrote:
...is this a never-ending night or something?
Are we supposed to have stopped talking now? I thought deadline was like an hour twenty ago. There hasn't even been a message to tell everyone to stop talking. Shapelog has probably run into some difficulties. I think we should probably avoid talking about game related things until the night post. The night is dark and full of terrors.
Yeah I was kinda just...more bothered by the lack of an actual deadline slamming shut honestly.
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On August 03 2016 09:36 kitaman27 wrote:Grackaroni the Vanilla Townie has died.Stutters695 the Vanilla Townie has died.Apologies for the delay!
The deadline is Thursday, Aug 04 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00). You have to vote!
Okay IDEK here now.
There's obviously a vig, can you claim and tell us which of the two you shot and why?
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I mean I'm guessing it was probably Grack because Stutters was being townread by damn near everyone I think except for silent. Which is probably why he was killed.
I think it was a good shot based on the info we had but it was clearly wrong because he's flipped town.
Given the whole Rels/Grack thing earlier and the fact that I'm pretty sure that wasn't TvT I'd still be comfortable lynching Rels today. Maybe silent but I'm a bit more meh on that now. Grack flipping green means the whole vote association thing that Moosy led me to doesn't really work and kicks Moosy down quite a few pegs for me.
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Unless silent IS the vig. You want to claim that?
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Anyway I'm going off. Quite a disappointment there. I'm feeling pretty deflated after that Grack flip. :-\
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On August 03 2016 12:11 MoosyDoosy wrote:
I actually don't think vig should claim here. As it is, there's really no need to claim so early unless they're under a lot of pressure.
I guess an argument can be made that holding onto the vig claim (that isn't going to be challenged unless mafia REALLY needs the mislynch and are willing to risk a mafia life for it) will allow for a potential impact reveal later and make for a less easy N2 shot which would just be on the confirmed town vig (unless there's a doc in the game, in which case they just protect the vig from the shadows). Problem is that we have very little to go on right now, so the extra info could be useful. :-\
That's assuming Vig is one shot. Vig is one shot this game, right? I can't actually see it in the OPs but vig have always been one shot in the newbie games I've played I think.
IDK. Game is hard.
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Also I don't agree it necessarily makes silent town. There's enough on him beyond the weird voting patterns to say he might be scum.
Definitely not looking as deep a red colour as before though.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTk2NTczMDMwNV5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTcwMDg3NTc2MQ@@._V1_CR0,30,250,141_AL_UX477_CR0,0,477,268_AL_.jpg)
