|
On June 30 2016 02:22 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 00:57 GlowingBear wrote:
We are not lynching Rayn EHMM Jean Valjean today! What kind of stupidity is this?
If Jean Valjean was mafia he would never ever kill QT last night. It's simple: either scum was trying to take the bodyguard down or the bodyguard is scum and tried to make it look like he was trying to kill the bodyguard.
Either way, Jean isn't scum. IF he was scum and had hit the bodyguard, he would have to explain why he would be alive day3. That's a horrible position for Mafia to put himself in. He would kill another townie that had less chance to be town according to my town reads. I took a risk to give the bodyguard to a null read of mine exactly because of this by the way.
Eh while this is a decent WIFOM NK argument (and possibly the first I've seen made to TR someone) I think your assumption that QT was killed because he might be BG a little flawed. There is just as much chance he was killed because basically everyone agreed he was town or because he was on the right track and heavily TR. Though I think my first thought was also that he was killed as a potential BG. If he was killed because he was on the right track it would implicate Super actually. Show nested quote +On June 27 2016 04:17 QuickTwist wrote:On June 27 2016 04:08 Superbia wrote:On June 27 2016 04:05 QuickTwist wrote:On June 27 2016 04:02 Superbia wrote:On June 27 2016 02:42 QuickTwist wrote:On June 26 2016 18:18 Superbia wrote:
A quick few notes about how I feel about damdred btw:
I think damdred could be scum, but not for the reasons that have been brought up (iirc). I think his reads have been sort of relaxed and I can see them coming from a town perspective. I do want to see some reasons behind them. Especially the two I asked at the start of the game.
Damdred's most scummy play this game has been his chicanery regarding presidency. He started the game off with the whole "I don't want to be president but I want to support a town president" or something along those lines. I think this is actually sort of scummy. I think as town you want to be the president, especially if you believe in your own ability. Moreover, it felt like he did want the presidency from the very start. His last page of his filter also has him pushing more and more towards getting the presidency.
Damdred, can you explain? Did you really not want presidency? If so, what has changed?
Moreover, can you elaborate on your early reads a little? Why did you conclude artanis vs qt was TvT that quickly? This post sucks and I'm Scum reading you for it. Why? I'll just say it like this: your reasons for both Town reading him AND Scum reading him are not even AI. AI? uwut? How does it make me scum? Also what does it mean for damdred's alignment? This is the last post of the day for me. 1) Your read on him is very non-commital. That is sometimes considered a Scum tell all on its own. 2) I read your reasons for reading him both Town and Scum as greatly reaching into things that are not alignment indicative at all. It would be one thing if they were solid Town and Scum tells, but they are not. Combine these two and what are you left with? No stance taken one way or the other based off reasons that are not AI. You might as well have just said "He hasn't done anything AI" but the fact that you are trying to blow a post like that up by both giving a strong stance both ways and giving non-valid reasoning just makes it a terrible terrible post. Why this is a Scummy post is because: 1) Its one of the longer posts you have made 2) You are fabricating reads 3) You don't have hardly any long posts to begin with 4) So it makes it look like you are trying look like you are doing more than you really are.
Wouldn't this be a little too... basic? Killing the one person who suspects you (I don't think there were others or if there were, they did not make a case like this) is suspicious as all hell and when you have the pick of the litter so early in the game, I don't think Superbia would go for something so direct.
|
On June 30 2016 02:32 Damdred wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:
To remove uncertainty from potentially painful end-game scenarios that have muddled my analytical breakdown of when we CAN or SHOULD lynch Jean, I have a couple of questions:
GlowingBear, will you ever use your pardon? If so, in what scenarios and why?
If you were in an endgame scenario where you had to choose between Jean and your bodyguard to lynch, who would you lynch?
Jean: Under what circumstances would you push a GlowingBear lynch? What in the world was that about pushing gb
GB is another person who can't be killed if his bodyguard is alive. In an end-game scenario where you have Jean/GlowingBear/Bodyguard/Random townie, if GB is scum then he will probably try to lynch Jean and then win the game at night. There are other such end-game scenarios where lynching GB might become an option for Jean, which is why I want his take on the matter.
|
On June 30 2016 02:40 Damdred wrote:
GB is confirmed town jealous...
Though jealous is almost dumb telling himself idk
OH right. Whoops, I forgot haha. Thanks for correcting me.
|
My questions to GB still stand.
|
On June 30 2016 02:44 Damdred wrote:
I don't think that's something scum forgets who shot their partner.
Ehhh its kinda weak, but I don't think I want to lynch jealous especially with his attitude/interactions today.
I was writing up a long analysis on why we should/should not lynch Jean and many of them boiled down to some endgame variation of Jean/GB/Bodyguard/Townie so I started thinking about that scenario in a vacuum where one of them had to be scum and I forgot that GB can't be scum. It's like when you start a u substitution in calculus and you forget what your u was and didn't write your work down x_x I've forgotten that QT was dead before when doing my reads too, haha. I should be more mindful.
|
On June 30 2016 03:55 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 03:51 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On June 30 2016 03:48 Tictock wrote:
Besides if Jean flips town the last scum would basically have to be either Damdred or I from the way we are pushing this right? I don't think either of you is going to flip scum regardless honestly. Damdred is never scum and you seem very unlikely to be scum as well from how the game's developed. You've gotten more and more into the game as it's progressed whereas scum has been getting trounced. That with the fakeclaim which would've given you a fine excuse to just concede, I'm quite certain you're town. What I'm hearing is that this wagon is pure as fuck and everyone should get on it...
I still think it's too much of a risk to take at this juncture, and would prefer to only do it if it is forced upon us as we progress through the D/N cycles. There are still quite a few cycles left until Jean becomes invincible as scum, which means plenty of other developments can occur that would help shed light on Jean and others in the game. Maybe my balls aren't big enough to join you on this wagon or perhaps I tend to be risk-averse, either way I am sticking to my guns (Damdred) on this one because it is the strongest case I've seen developed on a purely logical scale (as in, ignoring meta).
If Damdred flips green, I have some other avenues to pursue but I don't want to reveal those until someone gets NK'd. Maybe scum will eliminate some possibilities and if I post my suspicions now, scum will be less likely to remove them from town's radar.
|
On June 30 2016 04:03 Jean Valjean wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 02:30 Jealous wrote:
To remove uncertainty from potentially painful end-game scenarios that have muddled my analytical breakdown of when we CAN or SHOULD lynch Jean, I have a couple of questions:
GlowingBear, will you ever use your pardon? If so, in what scenarios and why?
If you were in an endgame scenario where you had to choose between Jean and your bodyguard to lynch, who would you lynch?
Jean: Under what circumstances would you push a GlowingBear lynch? Never, scum vigilante isn't a role in the game so he's confirmed town.
Yea, I made a mistake, ignore that please ^^ I forgot GB was confirmed town when I wrote that because I was mentally trapped in some analytical end-game scenario hell.
|
You can't really blame JVJ for "trying to survive" because as I said when I was under pressure, both town and scum have that in their best interest and in their faction's best interest. Town wants to live to prevent a mislynch that would extend scum's lifetime, scum wants to live to scum at night.
When this wagon first formed, I thought it was purely to a light a fire under JVJ's ass and force him to devote some time to D2 and making reads, but at this point I feel like you guys are wasting valuable time that could be spent having him contribute to other reads with greater depth because you force him on the defensive. If he didn't have to deal with the repeated badgering, he might do something that is better for the town as a whole - i.e., provide detailed reads. This would be to town's benefit whether he is town or not, and some of the things he may say would be more AI than him trying to stay alive.
So, in pursuing that line of thought: JVJ, why not Damdred? I posted a pretty detailed list of posts from him and my interpretation of them. Despite you saying that you like my play, you seem to not even have him on your radar. Cut your losses on defense and consider that the best defense could be a good offense.
|
On June 30 2016 04:41 GlowingBear wrote:
EC was really important for Mafia for he was the rolecop. With the rolecop ability EC could find the bodyguard faster. That's why Moosy sacrificed himself. That's why Mafia probably voted Jean Valjean day1 (so Mafia wouldn't lose probably their most important role).
That's why Damdred, voting me then hammering Jean, should be the most suspicious person to you guys. Regardless of his play, all hard evidence points him to be EC's partner. It amuses me that you guys are town reading Damdred after all that. He needs to get out of our way, no matter how townie you believe Damdred can be. I'm talking about HARD EVIDENCE.
Great post.
On June 30 2016 04:42 Skynx wrote:These lynches are wrong. We're not hunting a confirmed scum here, we're just considering options. "Hmmm, I'm not feeling like chocolate today so lemme get strawberry ice cream" is wrong, it should be "Oh, I'm definitely feeling like caramel today!" I feel like no one has been conclusive with their reasonings why someone can be scum. We should try a different approach.Here is a thought, you know who's name haven't been mentioned at all by anyone today? + Show Spoiler +
You've already responded to what I believe was the conclusive reasoning on Damdred, so I don't see how you can say this.
|
On June 30 2016 04:59 Skynx wrote:
Alright lets try this, who's everyone's next target if Damdred dies tonight?
Chezinu
...
...
...
Artanis
JVJ
Superbia
|
On June 30 2016 05:15 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 05:12 Jealous wrote:On June 30 2016 04:59 Skynx wrote:
Alright lets try this, who's everyone's next target if Damdred dies tonight? Chezinu ... ... ... Artanis JVJ Superbia ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/wnIP5O5.gif)
To be fair, I didn't put much thought into the actual order of the bottom 3. This is of course if we lynch Damdred today, which seems to no longer be happening.
Either way, I'm AFK for a bit.
|
|
|
I was allowed to finish the game and possibly other obligations so I'm still in here. Thnx fam.
|
I can't deny that he played well in D2. However that is pretty WIFOM for me because it could just be a good player under pressure trying to go down the list of "What would a townie do in my case?" or it could be an actual townie under false pressure. The main problem I have is that if Damdred isn't scum, then who is?
I don't think TT is, as of now. I think that the cases on Jean and Superbia are similar from what I've read so far, so that is a confusing ordeal because if one of them is scum then either one of them is playing an incredible scum or one of them is playing a bad town. I think we can assume the former to be true. Superbia has shown himself to be a clever player in both games so far; Jean has shown himself as a much more transparent and open player. If I had to decide between the two of them, I'd go with Superbia. However, I'd really need to dig in his filter to find any evidence to support this inclination because from the D1 filter read I did on him and what I recall from N1/D2, I haven't seen anything overly scummy from him. This is now on my to-do list.
Artanis was my only other pick besides Chezinu. Why? Perhaps there is more than "meta" behind his townreads on people. If Damdred were to get lynched yesterday and he made that long and almost exceedingly townie-toned post about why Damdred would be town, then he would get a lot of credit and whoever pushed Damdred might be in the spotlight. This is the perfect scenario for scum - divide the town between the people who wagoned Damdred and those that did not, with him being the leader of the "did not" party. Of course, only scum or cop would know for certain that Damdred is not scum. If Artanis was scum, it'd be very wise of him to counter-argue a strong case that I built against Damdred with "meta" and nice formatting to basically say "Damdred can't be scum, he is super town," and in this scenario WHEN and not IF Damdred flipped town, Artanis could use this as leverage as both a case against anyone who voted for him (especially me) and as a defense against anyone who questions him ("But if I was scum, wouldn't it make sense for me to allow town to mislynch Damdred?"). This is all circumstantial and by no means confirmed; I still need to lynch Damdred to see how it plays out, but if he does flip green I want everyone to be aware of this possibility.
So, Skynx, who to you is scum then?
|
On June 30 2016 12:56 Damdred wrote:
I wonder also how long jealous is banned for?
Anyway his refusal to really take part in the Lynch was a bit meh. Will have to wait a bit to see though
What's "meh" about sticking to the best case that has been presented against anyone so far? The case against Jean boiled down to "Wouldn't that be an epic bus and thus an epic win for town if we nailed him?" The case against Chezinu was "He's uncharacteristically AFK, he ain't done shit." The case on you involved me digging, citing, and analyzing your filter for 5 pages in a transparent and manner, with other people supporting my analysis. Why would I switch to a flimsy Chezinu read when my own read on you had far more substance?
I understand that as my target you can't be expected to stay objective, but come on now. At least present it in a different way if you're going to bring it up at all.
|
Also, going to give forward notice right now - I have two tests today and a ton of work to do, and tomorrow I am moving out of my current residence, so as you can imagine I will not be very active nor have internet at all the majority of the time henceforth. I will probably be able to read things on my phone during cigarette breaks but I doubt I will contribute much.
|
On June 30 2016 21:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 20:35 Jealous wrote:
I can't deny that he played well in D2. However that is pretty WIFOM for me because it could just be a good player under pressure trying to go down the list of "What would a townie do in my case?" or it could be an actual townie under false pressure. The main problem I have is that if Damdred isn't scum, then who is?
I don't think TT is, as of now. I think that the cases on Jean and Superbia are similar from what I've read so far, so that is a confusing ordeal because if one of them is scum then either one of them is playing an incredible scum or one of them is playing a bad town. I think we can assume the former to be true. Superbia has shown himself to be a clever player in both games so far; Jean has shown himself as a much more transparent and open player. If I had to decide between the two of them, I'd go with Superbia. However, I'd really need to dig in his filter to find any evidence to support this inclination because from the D1 filter read I did on him and what I recall from N1/D2, I haven't seen anything overly scummy from him. This is now on my to-do list.
Artanis was my only other pick besides Chezinu. Why? Perhaps there is more than "meta" behind his townreads on people. If Damdred were to get lynched yesterday and he made that long and almost exceedingly townie-toned post about why Damdred would be town, then he would get a lot of credit and whoever pushed Damdred might be in the spotlight. This is the perfect scenario for scum - divide the town between the people who wagoned Damdred and those that did not, with him being the leader of the "did not" party. Of course, only scum or cop would know for certain that Damdred is not scum. If Artanis was scum, it'd be very wise of him to counter-argue a strong case that I built against Damdred with "meta" and nice formatting to basically say "Damdred can't be scum, he is super town," and in this scenario WHEN and not IF Damdred flipped town, Artanis could use this as leverage as both a case against anyone who voted for him (especially me) and as a defense against anyone who questions him ("But if I was scum, wouldn't it make sense for me to allow town to mislynch Damdred?"). This is all circumstantial and by no means confirmed; I still need to lynch Damdred to see how it plays out, but if he does flip green I want everyone to be aware of this possibility.
So, Skynx, who to you is scum then? So what you're saying is you don't believe I can have as strong a townread on Damdred as I say, therefore I must have TMI? I guess that's a roundabout compliment in a way. I know you despise meta, but take a little look into my previously played games, please. I have never ever tried this hard as mafia under suspicion, let ALONE when the rest of my team died early. If I was in a team with MD and EC (and I mean no offense to them) I would've just given up on D1 and let the lynch wash over me. I would not end up having the longest filter in the game.
No, I'm saying that your townread on Damdred might truly be valid in your eyes, or you might just be trying to take a stance on him that automatically excludes the people who don't have your experience with him. Essentially you are appealing to a certain subset of the town population and excluding the other, forcing a divide between the two. Whether this is intentional or not, I don't feel comfortable taking your word as gospel on the matter without substantiated evidence within this game. Essentially, you are asking newbies to trust you, whom they do not know well as a player, about your analysis about Damdred's meta, whom they also do not know well. Try to see it from at least my perspective, as I cannot speak for others. If you came into a game that hinges on deception, would you feel comfortable trusting the guy saying "I've been here before, I know you're new but trust me on this one?" This isn't Diablo 2 where you can trust Deckard Cain and Akara to not stab you in the back, this is more like Skyrim where the NPC at the bar will poison your drink and leave you in some temple halfway across the world under the pretense of a drinking contest.
I'm not willing to devote hours into reading previous games just to catch up on meta reads, that's just not a reasonable request in my opinion. Also, doing what you say in order to trust you more is the same as a prisoner determining his own punishment; you're naturally going to propose the avenue that is most beneficial to you but not necessarily the one that is most objective. In other words, make a case for why Damdred can't be scum along the lines of what I did, within the confines of this game as opposed to an argument that has prior knowledge as a prerequisite.
Also, I know you said you don't want to discuss reads (can you explain why, by the way? I don't think I understand your explanation because newbie), so maybe this is more up your alley in terms of meta:
You and others have used the argument that "Damdred/X/Y would have already given up if they were scum in this scenario." What players do you think would not give up in this scenario? Would you give up?
|
On June 30 2016 22:05 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2016 21:44 Jealous wrote:On June 30 2016 21:18 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On June 30 2016 20:35 Jealous wrote:
I can't deny that he played well in D2. However that is pretty WIFOM for me because it could just be a good player under pressure trying to go down the list of "What would a townie do in my case?" or it could be an actual townie under false pressure. The main problem I have is that if Damdred isn't scum, then who is?
I don't think TT is, as of now. I think that the cases on Jean and Superbia are similar from what I've read so far, so that is a confusing ordeal because if one of them is scum then either one of them is playing an incredible scum or one of them is playing a bad town. I think we can assume the former to be true. Superbia has shown himself to be a clever player in both games so far; Jean has shown himself as a much more transparent and open player. If I had to decide between the two of them, I'd go with Superbia. However, I'd really need to dig in his filter to find any evidence to support this inclination because from the D1 filter read I did on him and what I recall from N1/D2, I haven't seen anything overly scummy from him. This is now on my to-do list.
Artanis was my only other pick besides Chezinu. Why? Perhaps there is more than "meta" behind his townreads on people. If Damdred were to get lynched yesterday and he made that long and almost exceedingly townie-toned post about why Damdred would be town, then he would get a lot of credit and whoever pushed Damdred might be in the spotlight. This is the perfect scenario for scum - divide the town between the people who wagoned Damdred and those that did not, with him being the leader of the "did not" party. Of course, only scum or cop would know for certain that Damdred is not scum. If Artanis was scum, it'd be very wise of him to counter-argue a strong case that I built against Damdred with "meta" and nice formatting to basically say "Damdred can't be scum, he is super town," and in this scenario WHEN and not IF Damdred flipped town, Artanis could use this as leverage as both a case against anyone who voted for him (especially me) and as a defense against anyone who questions him ("But if I was scum, wouldn't it make sense for me to allow town to mislynch Damdred?"). This is all circumstantial and by no means confirmed; I still need to lynch Damdred to see how it plays out, but if he does flip green I want everyone to be aware of this possibility.
So, Skynx, who to you is scum then? So what you're saying is you don't believe I can have as strong a townread on Damdred as I say, therefore I must have TMI? I guess that's a roundabout compliment in a way. I know you despise meta, but take a little look into my previously played games, please. I have never ever tried this hard as mafia under suspicion, let ALONE when the rest of my team died early. If I was in a team with MD and EC (and I mean no offense to them) I would've just given up on D1 and let the lynch wash over me. I would not end up having the longest filter in the game. No, I'm saying that your townread on Damdred might truly be valid in your eyes, or you might just be trying to take a stance on him that automatically excludes the people who don't have your experience with him. Essentially you are appealing to a certain subset of the town population and excluding the other, forcing a divide between the two. Whether this is intentional or not, I don't feel comfortable taking your word as gospel on the matter without substantiated evidence within this game. Essentially, you are asking newbies to trust you, whom they do not know well as a player, about your analysis about Damdred's meta, whom they also do not know well. Try to see it from at least my perspective, as I cannot speak for others. If you came into a game that hinges on deception, would you feel comfortable trusting the guy saying "I've been here before, I know you're new but trust me on this one?" This isn't Diablo 2 where you can trust Deckard Cain and Akara to not stab you in the back, this is more like Skyrim where the NPC at the bar will poison your drink and leave you in some temple halfway across the world under the pretense of a drinking contest. I'm not willing to devote hours into reading previous games just to catch up on meta reads, that's just not a reasonable request in my opinion. Also, doing what you say in order to trust you more is the same as a prisoner determining his own punishment; you're naturally going to propose the avenue that is most beneficial to you but not necessarily the one that is most objective. In other words, make a case for why Damdred can't be scum along the lines of what I did, within the confines of this game as opposed to an argument that has prior knowledge as a prerequisite. Also, I know you said you don't want to discuss reads (can you explain why, by the way? I don't think I understand your explanation because newbie), so maybe this is more up your alley in terms of meta: You and others have used the argument that "Damdred/X/Y would have already given up if they were scum in this scenario." What players do you think would not give up in this scenario? Would you give up? I understand what you're saying, but I do believe there's a certain level of trust that is required at some point. It is guaranteed that one between Damdred and I is town, so either my analysis is 100% sincere, or it is 100% correct from your perspective. The frustrating part to me is, I suppose, that his alignment is so blatantly obvious to me that it's difficult to spend a lot of time on disproving the reasons people bring up. It's kind of like a bunch of people claiming the moon is yellow because it emanates a yellow glow. I still know the moon is white, and I know the yellow glow emanating doesn't make it yellow, but to anyone who hasn't seen the moon before that very day, they may believe it to be true. As for my personal analysis, I presume Damdred can confirm that, and probably others in the game as well. GlowingBear and Superbia SHOULD be able to, presuming they've paid enough attention. As for not giving reads until the night deadline; I don't think it's clear who's getting shot. Posting my reads may result in an alteration of the night kills. Say no one suspects you and you're town and I come up with a big case on you; scum may have wanted to NK you, but they then decide to NK someone else as you turn into a viable mislynch. That's why I'd rather not go into reads right now.
At first I thought this was a great metaphor and got me to understand your side of it completely. However, even though the moon is white the majority of the time, it is still yellow when it appears yellow, it is still red when it is red, it is still black when it is black. In reality, the moon has no color. Color is a subjective, human perspective. The moon merely reflects the light, angle of light, or lack of light shone onto it, and we attribute color to it based on the ways our eyes perceive a small portion of the light spectrum. Even a moon that in your experience of 27 days appears as one color, at least one day out of the lunar month it will be a different color. Replace day with game. In other words, I find your absolute lack of faith in Damdred's ability to change his play given the circumstances to be pretty complacent and potentially just as myopic as my unwillingness to see the things I've dug up as anything but scummy.
I see, that makes sense. I was going to pose a question to the town as a whole asking something along the lines of, "if the person you suspect as scum were to lynch anyone, who do you think it would be?" and I came to the same realization: anything said in response would simply be a confounding factor when the NK does come, so I didn't post that ^^
|
On July 01 2016 00:11 Damdred wrote:
You lacked a real driving force EOD to try to get people back on me jealous tbh. It's all fine and well to have what you consider the best case in the game, (which I've answered every point to in a coherent fashion) but if you don't really take part in the Lynch it's really for naught.
Anyway sk is it just jean now for you as scum? Or do you have anyone else you are thinking of here?
I won't have time before EOD to post a last second read post so I'm going to treat this like lylo and figure out people as I go.
Well, I did respond to Skynx and whoever else would say "there's no real case on anyone else right now tbh," and etc. I also argued against the Jean lynch at the end, which in essence is the same as arguing for people to reconsider you. I also pushed Jean to read my analysis. I pushed, but once people wagoned on Chezinu I didn't see anything else I could say that hadn't already been said. I wasn't entirely averse to a Chezinu lynch either, even though I still would prefer to lynch you and that hasn't changed as of now.
|
On July 01 2016 09:05 Damdred wrote:
But I will say I would shoot people that tr me if they can catch me ie rs, hf, Jat, palmar.
In this situation I wouldn't shoot art I think.
But it's so wifom,because he was the hardest read town person in the game everyone else people hesitate on.
What do you think is more likely scum play:
1. Someone who Artanis suspected was scum is getting rid of Artanis?
2. Someone who Artanis read as town getting rid of Artanis because suspicion on them would be unlikely?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
