EPT[M][N] Unoriginal Name Mini Mafia - Page 50
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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raynpelikoneet
Finland43268 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On January 12 2016 08:58 darthfoley wrote: I said he only posted one read of substance. Regarding the reads you quoted, I explained at the time that it didn't make sense to consider Noon more towny than Rayne at that point in the game. I think being "onboard" for boxerfred or Kmatt is pretty safe at that point in the voting process, especially because at this time it was 4 to 3 for Tubesock vs. Boxerfred. Would've been tied 4/4 if he changed from GiygaS to Boxerfred. Boxerfred hadn't been very active and you would get lots of town cred if you supported a correct lynch day 1. I mean we've already confirmed town everyone who voted for Boxerfred, so losing an inactive mafia isn't the end of the world if it basically makes you an unlynchable for a while. However, people then jumped off the Tubesock wagon and he didn't need to do this, while still getting towncred for being "okay" with a boxerfred lynch and consistency for sticking with GiygaS. GiygaS didn't directly quote me, but he basically did "not much more to say on him that darth already hasn't" That's great and all, but at the end of the day, you're not explaining why it is that Tubesock's posting, which was essentially unchanged between your unvote and your subsequent vote, no longer was townie enough for you. You've just gone in after being called on it and basically said some things that, if true, were already true of Tubesock before you unvoted. Like if you felt his reads weren't substantive enough, that's fine, but you either decided that they were substantive enough when you unvoted him (as that was the reason you voted him initially), or you unvoted him despite them not being substantive enough. Either way there's a glaring discrepancy that your explanation fails to satisfy. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
I do scumread darth This is the second scummiest post in the game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/501039-unoriginal-name-mini-mafia?page=44#873 Regarding Tubesock, it's not like my suspicion of Tubesock emerged out of thin air with a couple hours left in the day phase. I hadn't liked his first substantive post and ultimately I felt like Tubesock didn't have much of a case against Giygas past the one we debunked. He's got a guilty conscience "it's not like my suspicion emerged out of thin air" (don't think it emerged out of thin air) You can say i'm feigning ignorance but I just haven't ever played a game with a Named VT before. Other than that, the only non substantive questions I've asked have been about in game abbreviations. Sorry I didn't know what WIFOM means? He does it again here. He's predicting criticisms of his own play prior to them happening. "You might accuse me of feigning ignorance, but..." Also the passive-aggressive "sorry you scumread me for not knowing what WIFOM means" I just don't think this post comes from a town | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
I haven't felt strongly about Tube but thought his d1 play wasn't particularly suspicious. This post really stuck out to me though: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/501039-unoriginal-name-mini-mafia?page=42#836 I pretty much had been thinking about the same exact things he said in this post. I was extremely suspicious of Rayn based on how the EOD went with him trying to get the votes off boxer and on to noon, despite earlier claiming boxer was a fine lynch. However, there are a few differences in our thought patterns. I figured I would hold off on saying anything as I had other scumreads, could still see Rayn being town here, and there is always a chance Rayn dies in the night (but becomes less likely if he is being scumread, whereas if scum think he is universally townread he is more likely to die in the night). However, I think this play is much more risky for me as there is a chance I die in the night based on my D1 play and never get to voice this contrary possibility that Rayn could be mafia, whereas Tube almost never dies in the night. So my problem is, why bother voicing all this suspicion in the night when if you just keep quiet, you could potentially say nothing and Rayn is a high priority nightkill for mafia if he is town. Worst case scenario Rayn is mafia and one of the people who lynched boxer d1 dies in the night, then you can voice this (what I believed to be a great) argument at D2 start. Basically, I feel like I was literally in the same shoes as Tubesock but felt compelled to not say anything until D2 despite the higher risk of dying in the night, whereas Tubesock felt compelled to voice these concerns before the mafia-kill was announced despite the fact that he was almost never dying in the night. It's like I want to townread him for having the same mindset on me with regards to Rayn, but it wasn't 'exactly' the same with regards to game sense. It's also something I've seem mafia do (including myself) in an attempt to clear themselves (have a nightkill picked then attempt to bury their nightkill as mafia right before flipping and revealing them as town). It makes others ask 'why would he spend all that time arguing x is mafia if he's just going to kill x in the night'. wifom wifom wifom.. he could be town and just have thought they were mafia. But my question still begs, why rush out all this information in the night? The timing feels off. For these reasons, I would have no objections to a Tubesock lynch today. It's not so much I have a scumread on him, but he has quite a lot of content and I still don't really have a firm townread on him, he is redchecked by the cop (statistically more likely to be mafia than framed), and the timing of his Rayn push feels very 'off'. I think it would be best if we limited our discussion to a set number of lynches rather than have votes as spread as they were D1 (it was very lucky that the boxer lynch actually even went through, if mafia were more coordinated they probably could have easily thwarted it). My suggestion is that we either lynch darth or tube today, depending on what everyone thinks. | ||
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GGTeMpLaR
United States7226 Posts
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
I did think I was a good vig and cop shot. But even as not, I think it's always better to leave a will in case Mafia does something weird. | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
On January 12 2016 09:02 Tubesock wrote: Town has at least 3 mlynches right? There are 5 questionable alive people. Me, Noon, Scott, VA, Darth. Like everyone else is essentially confirmed right? So if we are lucky and 1 of them is named VT then we are in an even better situation. Like we can't lose. We can just lynch in that order and town wins even if the last two mafia are VA and Darth. Which of the pool do you think is most scummiest? | ||
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
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slOosh
3291 Posts
I don't even know where to start this post .... uhhh warning stream of thought post coming up, feel free to skip to end for conclusion. GiygaS is confirmed town cop. + Show Spoiler [just for rayn] + Remember that very first GiygaS read? This was why. I read him blue / red for it but couldn't really flesh it out without accidentally outing myself as blue / him as blue. I would have expected Tubesock to have a more ... knee jerk "GiygaS is full of BS dirty mafia fake claimer" given how firmly he believed that GiygaS was scum basically whole game till that point. That said, I could see him just take a step back and figure things out before posting, so null on the reaction point. As GGTeMpLaR has pointed out, it is statistically unlikely that there is a false positive check. That means framer chose not to frame themselves and instead chose to target Tubesock. Although it isn't outside the realm of possibilities that scum team read GiygaS as cop (maybe taking this post as indication of check). On January 12 2016 06:07 GiygaS wrote: At work so can't talk much, but I think I'm starting to lay off Tubesock. Don't know who my next choice is though. Will have to go through filters when I get home. And if we are heading in the right direction, it wouldn't surprise me if scum decided they needed to take some ballsy plays to get back into the game. I've read the materials against darthfoley and it looks good. I agree with the general assessments, and find his D2 play has been more lackluster, perhaps showcasing that he has been more of a thread sentiment emulator rather than an independent poster. I'm trying to wrap my head around possible teams, and I don't think both darthfoley and Tubesock would go in the same team. From Eden's nicely colored voting pattern post, darthfoley's switcharoonies are only incriminating if Tubesock is town. I really don't see how they can both be scum buddies by the way that they voted. Darthfoley's MO is basically follow the crowd (shadowing me or rayn or whoever) on possible lynches - notice he never jumps onto boxerfred, but is comfortable jumping on and off Tubesock. He most definitely had opportunity to change his votes and it wouldn't look inconsistent with his playstyle, and so it feels too gutsy to be parking your vote on a scum buddy like that. Right now I'm thinking darthfoley scum Tubesock town. I could definitely still just be biased from defending Tubesock D1 so gonna sleep on it, but that's where I currently am. I would very much appreciate if scott31337 and noonian could get in here and make sense of things too. Because if both of them aren't scum, then the last one is hiding somewhere else, and I'd like more info for when that time comes. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 12 2016 15:13 slOosh wrote: Nvm I'm still catching up and I missed lots of posts I haven't verbalized my order of reads yet. They are most likely to least: Darthfolley - is who I'm voting. I have nothing new to add to this one. I do strongly think todays lynch needs to be him or I. Next is Scott31337. his posts were off, I already asked him a bit on them. I have seen probably 4 or 5 people do a post and get replaced after only doing 1 post and I think all but 1 were mafia. In my 2nd game ever Scott actually replaced a player who made 2ish posts and entered Newbie Mini Mafia LX Mafia Vanilla Survived Day 3 (year old game) In that game it's a nice looking list post that had a quote from everyplayer that represented his "read" . Kinda like how he used numbers to make his list post even prettier entering here. It's kinda WIFOMy I know but since it's his only real content and he's refused to answer 2 or 3 of my questions it's all that is available. Noon - I think he's town, but he hasn't done anything that a mafia wouldn't ever do, and Rayn NK implicates him. (as it does me) VA I guess. But his case was secks. By the time we get to lynching Noon at the soonest (like 8 days?) there will/should be sooo much more information that we can make better decisions on the lynches. That's IF I am not lynched. That would add 3 more days I think. The only way I will be removed as a ? is if we lynch framer, mafia derp shoots nonGiygaS, and he redchecks someone. I have no idea how to remove the ? but my plan is to thought dump. So, town will have to figure out if it is possible/probable I was framed or I'm try hard mafia. | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
On January 12 2016 15:52 slOosh wrote: Alright ... I think I've fully caught up (and I realize I've been spamming it up a bit so I'll cut back). I don't even know where to start this post .... uhhh warning stream of thought post coming up, feel free to skip to end for conclusion. GiygaS is confirmed town cop. + Show Spoiler [just for rayn] + Remember that very first GiygaS read? This was why. I read him blue / red for it but couldn't really flesh it out without accidentally outing myself as blue / him as blue. I would have expected Tubesock to have a more ... knee jerk "GiygaS is full of BS dirty mafia fake claimer" given how firmly he believed that GiygaS was scum basically whole game till that point. That said, I could see him just take a step back and figure things out before posting, so null on the reaction point. As GGTeMpLaR has pointed out, it is statistically unlikely that there is a false positive check. That means framer chose not to frame themselves and instead chose to target Tubesock. Although it isn't outside the realm of possibilities that scum team read GiygaS as cop (maybe taking this post as indication of check). And if we are heading in the right direction, it wouldn't surprise me if scum decided they needed to take some ballsy plays to get back into the game. I've read the materials against darthfoley and it looks good. I agree with the general assessments, and find his D2 play has been more lackluster, perhaps showcasing that he has been more of a thread sentiment emulator rather than an independent poster. I'm trying to wrap my head around possible teams, and I don't think both darthfoley and Tubesock would go in the same team. From Eden's nicely colored voting pattern post, darthfoley's switcharoonies are only incriminating if Tubesock is town. I really don't see how they can both be scum buddies by the way that they voted. Darthfoley's MO is basically follow the crowd (shadowing me or rayn or whoever) on possible lynches - notice he never jumps onto boxerfred, but is comfortable jumping on and off Tubesock. He most definitely had opportunity to change his votes and it wouldn't look inconsistent with his playstyle, and so it feels too gutsy to be parking your vote on a scum buddy like that. Right now I'm thinking darthfoley scum Tubesock town. I could definitely still just be biased from defending Tubesock D1 so gonna sleep on it, but that's where I currently am. I would very much appreciate if scott31337 and noonian could get in here and make sense of things too. Because if both of them aren't scum, then the last one is hiding somewhere else, and I'd like more info for when that time comes. My main issue with this is I don't think mafia would have killed rayne if they knew I was cop. | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Is the game that straightforward? Ray dies because he's onto kush who is the only mafia on the team that's not under heavy pressure? Or... On the other hand. Why did we successfully hit mafia scan with a framer in the game? If Tubesock is town we discussed why mafia might go for the good and frame him guilty. But if Tubesock is mafia. Why would you ever not frame him town?? Is he not an obvious copcheck regardless of alignment? Again the only thing I can think of is that mafia went all-in to protect the third member who's less on the radar. They had framer and if Tubesock is mafia, they HAD to frame the other guy inno. Then they shot ray who could have been argued as scum over 3-4 confirmed town. Shot screams protection of the 3rd player. I think the right play here is probably lynch Tube, if he flips mafia lynch kush. If he flips town lynch darth. Weird thing though. I think darth is mafia with only Scott or kush as well. Darth and Tube are definitely not a scum team. Vayne's n1 push on darth is strange -- could be distancing but that's a very disproportionately large effort from Vayne just to do something that doesn't advance mafia agenda. So basically I got: Tubesock/kush darthfoley/kush darthfoley/Scott kush/scott could also work IF neither Tube not darth are mafia. I really doubt they are both town though. If Scott could just be obvtown we could solve this... | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
I am going 20000 Leagues deep on tube getting framed and ray being shot to protect kush. | ||
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