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Dark Tournament Mini Mafia - Page 10
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
I realise this James. I was coached in the past that (1) it becomes stronger in the late game or (2) in aggregate and (3) tying it together with other forms of evidence. To this be said, the NKs may not have occurred because of LS but because of the third teammate (and in some effect N1 could be attributed to HTS for all we know, it's safe to say she and Damdred probably had some games together). I want badly to trust my townreads (Shining/Rels) and two flipped but now when you mention this and your rationale for policy lynching LS, I do get worried. This is reminding me of Newbie 14. rayn and yamato - two flipped town (and the former a townread of mine in that game) hard townread Copcake over some shitty voice mafia heuristic and when I engaged her she failed to meet the criteria she even said for herself. The ONLY reason she was ever caught was because I was cop and I redchecked her. Sad to say I'm VT, who knows what our one-shot-hell-if-I-knew-what-we-had blue role actually is. But in fleshing out my read on LS there were several pitfalls with him. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Some deep filter research/past games on LS. I'm going through a few LS games as scum. I have some bad news for all you LS defenders, I think current meta is unreliable in gauging him as town. He actually has a very decent chance of being mafia. I'm looking at two scum games by LS - Jack of All Trades - endgamed night 3, mafia victory TL Mafia LXX Guardians of the Galaxy - lynched day 2, mafia victory In both games he has played as mafia, and looks decently (at first glance) close to his current playstyle in this game. Read the Guardians filter in particular and he was downed by a very lucky random tracker role check. Key areas in this one - Damdred had him as scum in that game. This game, he was going to vote LS and only changed based on the modconfirm. Reliability of metaread? Food for thought. IDK. In that game, he was straight up tracker checked and you can't really fight a tracker check. IDK. Now Jack of All Trades - he was clearly coached to play to his town meta this game. This was by geript. Evidence - postgame mentioning by a teammate On March 10 2015 10:15 geript wrote: When I saw the mafia team, I knew I was going to have to try and carry early on. Keir doesn't have time to post much but I was hoping for more from him. Sandroba hates playing as mafia. LS can likely be townread and ignored mostly. Kurumi and Slam were both likely to be lynched for basically doing nothing consistently. So I knew I was going to have to snowball it ideally. I forget who it was (maybe Epiphany) that called me out for exactly what I was doing on D1, but basically he said: Geript is just trying to push people to shoot 24hrs in, Geript is just trying to stir the pot with people, Geript has no non-bullshit points. It was actually really, really correct on all points. My whole point of D1 was to try and get Rayn and Koshi off balance as much as possible. Call them bad; push other points; make them doubt their reads; etc. It was actually really funny because Rayn was also really, really right when he fingered me (kinky) on N1. Who I ever really say was mafia? I had like 3-4 "suspects" that I just kinda rambled about but was far more interested in arguing, bullying and making it hard for people to think about the game (instead of act emotionally). That would never be my town play. Thus why he had to die. FWIW, I was never drunk this game. Didn't even go to the mexican place; I was just lazy and faked it. I think Toad took that quote out of context. Because Tube was arguing that I was mafia with Sandroba (tin foil hat is right but for the wrong reasons); I was arguing that if that were the case, I would never let Sandro make the play. BTW, it's a really bad play and he shouldn't have made it (in context of his thread presence). Town spirit really fucked up something fierce. LS in this game actually endgamed town. So whoever said that LS has trouble playing as mafia......sorry mate, you are wrong. Dead wrong. He endgamed in Jack of All Trades and there's a reason. Further evidence: the game's respective mafia QT. http://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/Nu9EUQfvt53 geript is completely coaching him to play to his town meta. Same thing could very well be happening with a potential HTS/LS team. HTS and whoever else could be working with him for the same thing here. James you might be on to something here. That policy lynch vote very well might be on to a mafia. TLDR: The current reads right now based on this past performance are unreliable, so at best LS is a coin flip regardless of what people are thinking of this modconfirmation. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Fidei looks a lot more towny in his final two pages of filter. I'm going to say he's town. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Town: Shining, Rels, myself Probable town: Fidei, disformation Town lean: DYH (NK analysis, thought process not inherently wrong) Need to read: Fecalfeast (possible bus?) Probable scum: LS, Trfel Vote currently on Trfel. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 08 2015 05:54 Rels wrote: Good stuff on Trfel. Particulary, I didn't understand his change of heart just because of the Damdred NK (Damdred townread NM so he wuold not NK him!) while at the same time saying scum!Shining could have killed Damdred before Damdred realized he's scum. He tried to explain it at first, then said it was a mistake. Let me see if I can find the posts. Like this is really false. He's first saying he's right that you would not kill Damdred, as Damdred's read would help you survive; when Damdred said he found Moosy's filter NAI and would evaluate you, which is super scary for a scum to hear. Then he's using a kinda opposite reasonning on Shining. Finally, he admits being wrong, which defeats the whole point of this wall of text. There is only one reason Trfel made this post: defend himself against my accusation. He certainly didn't make it to push his reasonning, since he admits at the end his reasonning was wrong. What do you think of Fidei's reasoning since you left the thread? I think he's town and I think you need to vote Trfel or possibly LS. Take a look at both his post and mine regarding LS and how we got there. I think you and the rest of this game are dead wrong on giving LS the townreads you are, or he needs to be evaluated differently than people have been doing so. There is precedent for him playing like this as mafia, so the claim that LS has trouble lying as mafia simply does not stand. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 08 2015 05:35 Rels wrote: I had no idea what buddying really meant. He has a lot of post either talking about me or talking to me. What is your read on LS now then ? Cause that stuff seems to be left without a conclusion. About the lack of time - that's why I precised I saw him on DOTA several times on the weekend. Which is exactly what he did in SOTW 2. Please take a look at why I think LS might be possible mafia. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 08 2015 09:23 disformation wrote: Ah, I can try to explain my thought process on that. From the top of my hat it went like this: 1. Damdred wants to vote LS (without explanation) 2. I look at LS filter and behold it is bad. 3. Damdred was a town-lean at this point, so while I agree on the filter I want to see where damdred is at, so I can sheep him with confidence. 4. I like damdreds answers upgrade him to a town read (I think I also posted this upgrade) and sheep him onto LS Yeah, that is what gives me pause on DYH at this moment. Despite him being wrong on me, this approach is quite fascinating and I just don't see that coming from scum. Meanwhile Trfel's filter is as tough as old boots... not sure if I can finish that before going to bed. If you can give your opinions on LS/Trfel that would be grand. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
Also should probably look into Shining's argument about Fecalfeast. It's not a bad one, but Fecalfeast WAS lazy as hell last game too. So I think I need to approach a simple compare and contrast. I know Fecalfeast replaced in for Onegu, for whom from what I could tell appeared to be a straight policy lynch for most people. All for tomorrow. 2:30am, my time here is done tonight. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 08 2015 08:37 Fidei86 wrote: Right. Quick game of dota then bed. Will catch up in the am. Scum. (joking. just had to say this.) | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
why in the bloody hell are we voting DoYouHas? Trfel is 1000% more likely to flip mafia. and LS' case on Fidei is beyond awful. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 08 2015 22:18 LightningStrike wrote: Why James aka Fidei86 is Mafia this game! 1. Past Experience: Granted I only played around 3 games total with James on mafia forum but I had played with him voice too and in both type of mafia games if my memory is right on this: He never tried to policy lynch anyone as town(Himalayas). THIS IS A BLANTANT LIE ABOUT THE BOLDED HE SAW I ACTED IN HIMALAYAS AND DRAMS PLUS SEASON OF THE WITCH 2 IN THOSE 3 GAMES I HAD A ROUGH DAY 1 START INTO THIS TYPE OF GAME. 2. His read progression: His reads were for the most part static. I can confirm he had very static reads in Season of the Witch 2 when he was scum. To illustrate his progression I will put all his read posts just bellow: + Show Spoiler + On December 03 2015 04:08 Fidei86 wrote: Town Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.) Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read. Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today. Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet. HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels. Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote. Mafia LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. That his first mega read post okay Seems to call Rels on a NAI item for him. On December 04 2015 06:43 Fidei86 wrote: I think this probably makes disfo town as well. Again potental NAI stuff but from dis this time around even thought dis never played as scum before. On December 04 2015 06:55 Fidei86 wrote: Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now. See a pattern yet? He handing town reads like candy for reasons that could be replicated from both sides. Plus his read progression on me throughtout was mainly me being scum until earlier this day phase he said he would just policy me. Hint: he never policy lynch people to my knowledge as town. Then he went back to saying I'm scum with no content really changed in that time frame. 3. His HTS distancing: I'll let this post from dis pretty much speak for itself: The quote above pretty much showed he distanced himself from HTS after HTS had flipped scum. Conclusion: Pretty much LYNCH WITH FIRE BOYS! ##Vote:Fidei86 (1) no. that bolded sentence refers to Trfel, not you (2) terrible. you are meta reading him off one game. static reads in of themselves do not make someone mafia. static reads with changing circumstances might though someone mafia, excepting jusitification. Fidei is updating reads. this makes me very suspicious of you. kushm4sta even argued you were using shitty meta to make your pushes day 1. this is so wrong I really don't understand how this could possibly be coming from a town standpoint. (3) more parroting and like I said before not really adding anything of value to the game. why aren't you looking at his final two pages of filter? why are YOUR reads not changing? why is his activity from last night making him mafia? explain in terms of that. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 09 2015 02:19 Trfel wrote: Sorry, I've been really busy and I don't think I'll have much (or really, any) time today. Poor time planning. I don't want to lynch DoYouHas. I think I want to lynch NocturneMage, but no one else seems to want to. To be honest, I don't think that I like any of the current wagons, so I'll vote for NocturneMage. here's a hint trfel: + Show Spoiler + I'm not mafia. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 09 2015 02:21 Trfel wrote: Actually, hm, looking really quickly at Rels' filter the last few pages, I think I'd rather lynch Rels. The way he bounces from target to target and is scumreading all of them doesn't make me think that he actually cares about the lynch. are you arguing that his reads are not organic enough or he's keeping his options wide open? because if you are I had reached just the opposite conclusion, at least the former. | ||
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NocturneMage
United Kingdom1965 Posts
On December 09 2015 02:29 Fidei86 wrote: (Disclaimer: Currently drunk) What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? High. He did this last game, I'm almost positive. | ||
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What made you track Holyflare?
