|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
if you are scum
On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So basically, if you are scum here
The problem here is that you are making the assumption that I am scum and then using my play to "prove" that assumption. The argument is invalid because you come to your conclusion and then piece together evidence that fits the scenario.
Of course I am going to discuss whether or not superbia or Xatalos should be included in the team. Everyone should be discussing them. Discussing SL, Artanis, and Shoccky is more difficult because they have posted less content. I did provide my thoughts on on Shoccky. I still have no idea about SL. Artanis I shared dissatisfaction about his post nomination reaction, but I will need to reread. Convincing HTS that she is a spy as leader doesn't accomplish anything and I felt okay with your inclusion. There are only eight other players in the game. That leaves Rels I guess, which I've been on the fence. I will go into further detail later.
On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Isn't it a bit hypocritical to entertain a scenario where Xatalos is not town - or cast doubt on him - for "not giving reads" when you yourself haven't really given any reads?
Perhaps but I feel that I do have reads, though I probably could have expressed them in a single post or something to make it easier to follow. List posts at this point are kinda meh though, but I'll oblige sometime today.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 03 2015 19:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:Artanis let's do the play of 2015 and win the game by nominating all scum team on mission 1. 
On November 03 2015 22:03 raynpelikoneet wrote:
1) If there are three scum, and the plan goes through, we autowin the game.
2) That is not going to happen because kitaman will refuse to follow up with that if there is three scum
3) When kitaman refuses to the plan, he actually has to explain why one of Rels/ShoCkeyy is mafia
4) When kitaman says "no" to the plan, i am going to ask Rels about his read on kitaman, and where does he base that on -- in contrary to the read on you (the "Xatalos does not have scumreads" part -- i will explain that further then)
5) And then all of this doesn't matter, except for we get scum talking about each other and not give bullshit reads
6) And the plan will still be town-favored if there is even 2 scum in that group of three (which i am 95% sure of, unless i am playing horribly in this game).
lol this plan is absolutely terrible. You do realize how important it is that town succeeds day one, right? Of course you do.
Essentially the game is won by the resistance by accomplishing the following goals:
1) Win mission two of the first three missions. (Ideally three if you can generate a clean initial group)
2) Win mission four.
The resistance very rarely wins mission five. Identifying 5/6 town is really difficult because you have to include members who participated in an earlier failed mission. It's like 4% success at random.
Now for the triple scum day one nomination to work, you need to identify all three scum for it to be worthwhile. There is a 1.1% chance of doing that successfully at random. We're not going by random but the odds of success are so, so bad.
Suppose we nominate our three spy suspects and mission one fails. We've wasted our easiest nomination phase in exchange for information.
Even if you know the full spy team, you exclude them from the day one nomination and town wins mission 1, 2, and 3 automatically.
Frankly rayn, for you to even suggest a plan like this that is so poorly thought out makes me more suspicious of you.
As for the specifics on Rels/Shoccky I'll go into the read list next.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 03 2015 23:09 Xatalos wrote:
But rayn gave good reasons for proposing the full-scum (2/3 scum) team - lots of pressure on the whole team - and there are additional reasons having to do with miscommunications within the scumteam and such, so it might be better to propose that next.
Like seriously...why would you support this idea?
"Lets purposely fail the most important mission because maybe it well help us pass missions later"
Does nobody else see the problem here?
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 02:24 Half the Sky wrote:
I just know that in RL resistance as a spy I have passed the first mission and then failed later missions - my question to rayn is how is he going to get around this possibility regardless of who/what his reads/team recs are? I read the post where he discusses Kita/Rels/Shockey and I'm not clear on the failsafe there. Am I missing something? Or was it more apparent in another post?
It's a catch-22. You can't discuss why the plan doesn't work for town because you'd need to lay out the basic spy strategy for taking advantage of the situation. Yet at the same time, you can't discuss the why the plan could work out because you'd need to lay out what you're hoping to achieve from the spies.
Either way, it's still too high risk with a questionable reward.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 03 2015 23:08 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 23:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:Like i find it really funny that every other post you call me scum and every other post you tell me to point out where you call me scum. It is literally hilarious. ^_^ Tell me where I directly called you scum.. This is the third time I've asked you to.
I'm confused what you are trying to say because I was working under the assumption that rayn was one of your spy suspects.
On November 03 2015 03:15 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I'm pretty much going to reject the xata/rayn combo wombo. I'd rather see the first team mentioned - hts,super,xata go through.
On November 02 2015 23:23 ShoCkeyy wrote:
He can get angry as town too, haven't never seen him play as town. I'm just basing it off my previous game with him, which is why I rather not have him on the first mission.
On November 03 2015 22:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:
rayn the whole game has tried to look like an angry town player, cause he's obviously getting angry at my assumptions, not even real accusations. He can't even find the time to go through my meta and see how I play, yet I went through his. He also can't find the time to really interact with me
Are you arguing semantics between whether or not you "directly called him scum" or whether you "inferred he was possibly scum"? Is the difference important?
What do you think of people like Artanis, Xat or Super. Even if you aren't completely certain, it would be nice to see a bit more regarding what you are thinking about each of them.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Here are my reads so far. I'm sure they will change as time goes on. Admittedly there is a lot of wishy/washy or null reads. I'm still not completely sure about anyone really.
Half the Sky - Leaning town.
At the start of the game, I was concerned with the fact that she essentially posted exactly what I typically hear from scum players 6-12 hours into the game when I rarely choose to participate much. Since then, she has stayed pretty active and shows evidence of reading the thread. At certain points there was a pretty easy opportunity to
My biggest concern would be that between her, myself, rayn, xatalos, and superbia was that she really did not seem to explain herself very well why she went from one to the other as nominations changed. At the end of the day, there were little suspicions towards anyone in the group of five, yet its pretty unlikely the entire group is town.
raynpelikoneet - Leaning town.
I'm willing to give him town points right off the bat for saving us from having to play with VE.
In general he seems to be pushing forwards discussion and looking at player-player relationships to try to piece things together. The plan that he put forward with the scum nominations may be really poor, but a couple posts suggest that he actually believes in it.
I hate the way he talks in absolutes regarding alignments of players that he certainly can't be so sure of. The conclusions come way too quick. However, I know he tends to do that a lot as town from past experience as well.
Xatalos - Leaning mafia
On November 03 2015 08:56 Xatalos wrote:
He was also constantly engaged with the thread... Not really sure how it's comparable to you.
This is a flat out false statement to justify his town read on Superbia. Superbia was NOT constantly engaged with the thread. He was absent aside from the start of the game, a 1 hour period where he made several posts, and a return post where he promised future reads. How can a player be both engaged and disconnected from the game at the same time. I question the validity of the town read because he isn't aware of Superbia's absence when several other players start to question the drop off.
Furthermore, he justifies the scum read on me by stating that I am ignoring discussion topics. That makes Xatalos's mindset look even worse when you compare it to his defense of Superbia. Superbia never even comments about the nomination aside from a 1-liner after the fact that he has never elaborated on. I shared my suspicions on both Superbia and Xatalos during the nomination phase and my satisfaction with both HTS and rayn as nominations. It seems like Xatalos generated his reads a few hours into the game and hasn't re-evaluated based on the events of the thread, which I view as a scum trait.
Superbia - Weakly leaning town
Superbia + Xatalos doesn't stand out as teammates and I think Xat looks worse between the two. That's probably the biggest reason that I have him slightly townier than NULL. If I re-evaluated my read on Xata, I'd probably need to do the same here.
On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote:
I usually start off with lots of big town-reads, not sure where the rest of town is this game lol.
This post felt genuine.
He had no input regarding nominations. I won't necessarily interpret this as spy motivated since he has essentially been absent from the thread, rather than lurking.
On November 02 2015 20:41 Superbia wrote:
Xat's initial post set me off. Saying something like "this is a nightmare for scum" has two results
1. It distances you from "scum".
2. It downplays scum.
1. Is NAI. 2 is super weird from a town perspective, and leans me more towards mafia. I feel like if you were town and believed this you would've focused on the strength of town, rather than the weakness of mafia, and as a result, would've said something along the lines of "mafia gonna get #rekt #noqt" (or something less trolly). Regardless I feel like commenting on how "weak" mafia is is mafia indicative as it sets up for a lax game.
Now I already had a very real suspicion that you knew that this set up is not a "nightmare" for scum, as you have played resistance(/avalon) before (noted by you correctly associating my merlin comment with avalon). So that double begs the question why you felt the need to point out that mafia was "weak".
I felt this post was exaggerated. He suggests that Xat is pushing a mafia agenda with the nightmare for scum post in order to catch town off guard. I simply don't think a mafia Xat is looking that far ahead. If anything, I'd say reason 1 makes more sense. Trying to interpret what a town Xat would enter the game as is a complete guessing game so I felt he was really stretching his read here.
sicklucker - Null
lol there is always at least one of these guys 
I'm really bad at reading low effort players. Usually it comes down to looking at their past games and seeing if the low effort trend occurs as only a single alignment (I haven't done this yet, but it is on my to-do list). We aren't really in a position to exclude him for the rest of the game so hopefully we get a few more reads. I guess the posts on Xata is a start.
Artanis[Xp] - Going to hold off until we see a few more posts from him. I'm not very sure where his head is at. At some point someone mentioned that had a very strong read on him. If you could elaborate, that might be helpful.
ShoCkeyy - I'm struggling between low thread presence mafia and "lynch bait" town.
He doesn't seem comfortable giving out statements which he isn't confident about. This could either mean that truly isn't sure and wants more time until it is clear or that he doesn't want to make a statement that could backfire later on in the game. I didn't like the meta read he made on rayn by taking only the experience from the game he has played. There were a few other statements that seemed like they came from town. "I will rject this combination" etc.
I took a look through some of his past games. There were a few similarities that popped up.
On May 19 2015 05:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I didn't ignore it and I never said GB was mafia directly, nor do I think he's mafia yet after throwing posts at him to see his argument style which I didn't much see in the Palmar posts due to reasons. I do however keep him under my list and already have mentioned my claim.
On November 03 2015 23:08 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Tell me where I directly called you scum.. This is the third time I've asked you to.
On June 19 2015 05:42 ShoCkeyy wrote:
GB can you stop completely ignoring my questions and stop ignoring the read I asked to do of me? And don't tell me it's because I have a small filter (wtf kind of logic is that). Tell me why I shouldn't vote for you?
On November 03 2015 22:59 ShoCkeyy wrote:
He was ignoring me when I was trying to engage with him. Doesn't make him scum, but it makes the scum meter raise.
On December 15 2010 05:25 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Another thing, notice how d3_crescentia doesn't name Amber[Light] in his post ... But then I throw Amber[Light]'s name into my post and now Amber[Light] is ALSO voting for me. You guys are obvious enough that you both are teaming up against people trying to save the town. Obvious Scums are Obvious.
On May 19 2015 06:36 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I just like the fact that I call three people out today and I'm getting ganged up on like in the beginning with they ganged up on damdred. If it doesn't smell like obvious mafia players, then Idk what is obvious.
On November 03 2015 00:26 ShoCkeyy wrote:
However in this game, that buddying up can also be assumed to knowing they're both spies. The other reason I came up to that is how they both question Rels together. Rels and rayn first started off and then Xata jumped in afterwards.
On February 24 2010 11:41 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I'm waiting till the next day to post all of my analysis of people. I've learned from the last game to just sit back and watch.
On November 03 2015 00:43 ShoCkeyy wrote:
Mostly everyone is still null for me. The first team still hasn't even gone out yet.
All of these quotes come from games where he is mafia compared against posts from this game. I know this method of scum hunting can be a bit dangerous because you're cherry picking posts without context, but there were enough similarities between his play that it warrants concern. From his town games, I didn't really have success picking up many trends aside from generally low post counts, though he was willing to call players scum without having "proof" like he suggests in his most recent post.
I'd say Shockeyy would be in my exclude list for the time being.
Rels - Weak town
He is changing his mind a lot, which suggests read progression. A lot of the posts that he is making wouldn't necessarily further his position to get included in a mission, which gives him town points. Getting into a fight with rayn early on in the game and digging up stuff on HTS when a lot of people town read her could create problems for him if he wanted to be trusted by the more vocal players. He brings a fair amount of new topics to the thread and seems to believe in most of the stuff he is posting.
Something of interest is that our reads don't match up very well. Usually when town hunting you look for people that are thinking similar things. I need to decide whether one of us are off by a significant amount or if he is pushing a mafia agenda by swaying the thread in a certain direction.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
1. Half the Sky
2. Xatalos
3. Artanis[Xp]
4. raynpelikoneet
5. ShoCkeyy
I know that the more information the better, but I'm actually toying with the idea of approving the first team. I'd be concerned that a similar looking team may not come up again considering the leaders likely self-nominations. Hmm.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 05:40 Xatalos wrote:
I don't really follow the read on me, kita. I didn't say that Superbia was constantly ACTIVE, but that he was constantly engaged WHEN he was active. He immediately engaged me when I came to the thread, and interacted actively later on when he returned to the thread... Whereas you felt kind of distant / avoiding direct engagement. Well, I'm not really sure about him at the moment, but you're misrepresenting my read on him there.
I guess we interpret the term engaged differently. I see it as someone who is consistently interacting with the thread, covering all the relevant talking points, while bringing new ideas to the table.
On November 02 2015 20:43 Superbia wrote:
Oh yeah, I also kind of didn't like Kita's big 2nd post- felt kind of forced. But not even near sure yet.
This is the only time he mentions me, yet makes no attempt to interact with me despite being unsure.
Shockyy and Artanis has never been mentioned in his filter, despite both of them having entered the thread by post #580.
There are no nomination suggestions aimed at the leader HTS or any attempt to discuss things with her.
Really the only person he has engaged is you. He had the initial exchange between you and him, a return explanation of the initial exchange, and a third response to Rels about the initial exchange. Aside from that, there was a comment about the Rels/rayn stuff and a few one liner questions, but most of his focus has been on a single topic.
This all feels odd considering you town read him around the deadline, yet say I'm mafia by attacking me for "ignoring everything and leaving".
Do you have any objections to anything I've said about individuals other than you? Who are you thinking about for tomorrow at the moment?
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:35 JudgeJudy wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
But if you are scum you only need to include yourself into the team and you can easily call the other two people town and "look good" Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So here is what i see has happened:
- HtS nominates herself/rayn/Superbia
- you become anti-super, as you yourself put it Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 15:10 raynpelikoneet wrote:
So basically, if you are scum here, you take the only possible route you can -- or rather, the route that gives you the best chance of getting scum into the team (if we assume HtS is town here -- and i find it almost impossible you two are scum together). Why would you say this doesn't apply to Xatalos? He was the one that was rather insistent to be included in place of super on day one. He didn't go as far as attacking super directly, but he brought up reasons why he shouldn't be considered 100% town and definitely suggested that he should be included on multiple occasions.
qq
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:31 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 04:28 kitaman27 wrote:
Here are my reads so far. I'm sure they will change as time goes on. Admittedly there is a lot of wishy/washy or null reads. I'm still not completely sure about anyone really.
Half the Sky - Leaning town.
At the start of the game, I was concerned with the fact that she essentially posted exactly what I typically hear from scum players 6-12 hours into the game when I rarely choose to participate much. Since then, she has stayed pretty active and shows evidence of reading the thread. At certain points there was a pretty easy opportunity to Uh, I think you're missing something here Kita.
Oh yeah it looks like I lost a couple of paragraphs somewhere...at least artanis gets townie points for reading. I'm sure there are several people who skipped through it.
I think the general gist was that she had the opportunity to nominate all the good looking players and withdraw from the thread while ensuring that she could get away with looking good herself, but she continued to dig into stuff throughout the day.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Rels do you think i am scum?
Also what are the situations where you do not pick yourself into the team as a leader?
On November 03 2015 18:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am actually quite sure Artanis/SL are both town.
Could you explain these reads more?
Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for?
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:41 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Rels do you think i am scum?
Also what are the situations where you do not pick yourself into the team as a leader? Show nested quote +On November 03 2015 18:47 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am actually quite sure Artanis/SL are both town. Could you explain these reads more? Also, do you have any thoughts now that I shared the reads you asked for?
EBWOP I mean the Artanis/Sl ones, dunno how the first post got quoted.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:42 Xatalos wrote:
Not really much to say about your other reads since they're pretty... vague? (kita) Nothing else at least really caught my attention.
How about shockey then? That one wasn't very vague.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 06:53 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On November 04 2015 06:47 kitaman27 wrote:On November 04 2015 06:42 Xatalos wrote:
Not really much to say about your other reads since they're pretty... vague? (kita) Nothing else at least really caught my attention. How about shockey then? That one wasn't very vague. Tbh it kinda was... Basically "could go both ways"... Isn't that the ultimate vague read? Tbh the way you made your read indicates that it should mild-strong scumread instead, but... The conclusion is just that.
lol maybe it was less vague in my mind. XD
The conclusion was scum leaning if it wasn't clear.
"I never called you mafia directly"
"You're ignoring me when I try to interact with you"
"These guys are suspicious because they both jump in to make the same point"
"I'm going to watch how things play out before providing strong reads"
Would you consider these common themes between his past mafia games and this one to be a concern or is the connection more likely to be a coincidence in your opinion?
How do you interpret his post that he hasn't directly called rayn mafia because he doesn't have proof?
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 08:52 Superbia wrote:
I'm not caught up at all and won't be for now. I have approx 15m before sleepytimes.
Do you plan to be caught up tomorrow? Its really been a while now since you've given your thoughts.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 09:09 Superbia wrote:
All right. Listen. You do not genuinely discuss your vote before you vote, you do so after. Mafia does not have a QT, they cannot communicate. Part of the game- and part of the play as town- is to keep mafia in the dark as to what the voting is going to be. There are voting trends that can be gained and analyzed if this is kept as it is. I was hoping people would do this.
So please, next time, do not do this. Discuss who you think is mafia during all phases. We discuss our votes after voting is revealed.
Odd that you didn't bother to actually look.
There is very little explanation for him voting pass on a rayn group.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
I voted mostly for more time to think things through.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 09:27 ShoCkeyy wrote:Kitaman, question did you only read my mafia games?
No skimmed through both.
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On November 04 2015 13:18 ShoCkeyy wrote:
What? I knew they would be public and I did say any team that went ahead that wasn't xata rayn would be fine by me. I don't get what makes me look bad by voting yes?...
Out of the eight other players, wasn't rayn the one you were most suspicious of at that point? Why pass a rayn only team or a xata only team, but not a rayn + xata team?
Is everyone else really trustworthy enough that you'd be willing to pass 77 out of 84 possible combinations?
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
