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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 09:39 gumshoe wrote: and I am not asking for thier specific reason, just the truth that naturally goes along with thier shot They shot rayn, which obviously means what? so.... rayn was... not gonna be mislynched? | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
so, wait, I don't understand. clearly you're not saying rayn was scum and therefore lynching him wouldn't be a mislynch. You're saying... what, that he was unlikely to get lynched? That was true of several people, especially you and me, but basically anyone but GB H1 and 1G. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
Like I really don't see how this is a useful piece of information, or what this deduction is. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 12:29 gumshoe wrote: Do you guys really not get the whole Rayn thing? rayn dying means scum felt they couldn't mislynch him. scum not bieng able to mislynch him means at least 2 out of three scum are town reading him and to turn around and lynch him for no real reason would be super scummy of them. Is this really such a stretch? Basically my argument is that the majority of the scum team couldn't lynch rayn cause they were town reading rayn. No it's not game ending, but it is useful information to cross refrence with what you all already know. Def not "gumshoe dafack are you doing" worthy 0_0 I don't think you're necessarily wrong but imagine this "scum shot rayn because of the way scum votes were on him-- they realized that it wouldn't be possible to lynch him without at least 3 townies changing from townreading rayn to scumreading him. since this was impossible, there was no way for him to get lynched." This is a good summary of your thoughts, right? well this describes pertty well a situation with all scum not voting rayn, but it ALSO describes a situation where scum are voting rayn and literally all townies think he's town. Like, AND AGAIN, I'm not saying this is true, just pointing out the gap in your logic, it's totally possible that someone gets shot and before he was shot scum were trying to push him and town was resisting. In any case, all of it doesn't matter, it's not a point in 1G's defense that your explanation is quite strange. Like, think about it this way-- the explanation could explain any distribution of scum. In any case, lynch 1G | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 13:13 ritoky wrote: so you think onegu is actively doing more scummy things than gb? okay, please enlighten me. what are they? sigh. it's yam/gb again basically in terms of activity making people seem scummier tbh | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 13:22 ritoky wrote: if that's the case 100% of people should be on hopeless instead. i refuse to accept this answer from anyone. if you're judging based on activity then lynch hopeless 0 questions asked. but don't sit here and tell me "onegu scummier than gb" and then give me activity bs. i'm like pretty sure the scumteam is gb 1g h1 so i'm not too worried, but tell you what, at the end of the day, if my vote makes the difference, I'll be here. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
after dinner | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 13:36 gumshoe wrote: sure lynch hopeless, I dont particularly care about the order man, as I doubt there arent 2-3 scum between them and its unlikely well get through the game without lynching all of them. Theres a good chance were arguing over nothing here but if you really really want to lynch gb or hopeless over 1gu, be my guest. I dont really wanna spend time arguing over what smells worse between trash and used condoms /  i would like to think its the condoms)My lynches for the next 4 days are basically locked so none of this really matters in my opinion. I'm just going for the person I feel are the scummiest atm, but if I had something REALLY concrete I woulda brought it up by now. Also My lynches are based way more on who I consider town to be honest (there are 4 people that I just flat out dont plan on lynching this game, barring something crazy), as my scum reading is historically kinda shit / : yeah at some level I feel like we're arguing gray vs grey here, we're probably lynching all three anyways | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 13:47 ritoky wrote: that's a really big reason i want to know GB's alignment...other than i think he is mafia. BH tried to shennanie off of yamato onto GB and literally no one would follow. that becomes very telling if GB is mafia. Hmmm, actually, this is a fair argument in favor of changing the order. If we really do plan on lynching all three, but are worried one of 1G / H1 are town (or both) and feel good about GB as mafia... it could explain the reluctance to swap. It's an associative tell about an unflipped player, but the analysis intrinsically offers a solution: flip the player. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 14:00 Chromatically wrote: Sorry, can you explain this to me? I don't understand this. yeah... | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 28 2015 14:03 ritoky wrote: BH tried to shennanie from yamato to GB. all 3 were here, all 3 refused to follow for different reasons. if it was a shennanie off town onto mafia, i would be floored if 1 isn't mafia with GB. ah, yeah, that makes sense I suppose dinner now bye | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:41 Xatalos wrote: One crazy idea I had is that the scumteam could be something like Onegu/GB/ritoky since they've all had these hipster suspicions in the last 24 hours - maybe feeling pressed into a corner and needing to redirect attention? Could also explain the rayn NK as trying to shake things up, and rayn's scumread on GB/ritoky.... But there are some problems with that team. For example, ritoky eagerly jumped on Onegu D1, and again voted for GB D2. GB has also pushed Onegu lately. Could be bussing I guess, but especially ritoky is a bit hard to explain. Even if that's the case, though, I don't think that's a reason to change from our current lynch target. We don't even have to have weird ideas to want to lynch into the GB/1G/H1 group | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 29 2015 02:54 Xatalos wrote: True, I suppose... In any case, there should be at least one scum within GB/Onegu, so I'm not really sad whichever gets picked today. Hopefully they're both scum or we hit the correct one first. Yeah that's basically how I'm feeling as well. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:10 gumshoe wrote: Bh, I considered what you said about scum bieng the ONLY ones to be pushing rayn that would mean a combination of vivax gb xata and ritoky. I consider xata and ritoky pretty hard town at this point, and vivax and gb arent likely to be scum together so I think the possibility that scum were town reading rayn is much higher. What ya think? I am not saying scum were the only ones pushing rayn. I'm just saying your logc, which again, seems to be pretty strange, could be used to prove both "scum were all on rayn" and "no scum were on rayn". If you are using a heuristic or piece of logic and it can prove anything easily, it should be allowed to fail. The problem with this idea that "scum weren't able to lynch rayn, therefore scum are X, Y, and Z" fails because it explains too much. If an explanation can explain literally any outcome, it has no predictive value. I actually went back and found the quote that first explained this concept to me, so you too can learn: In Munich in the days of the great theoretical physicist Arnold Sommerfeld (1868–1954), trolley cars were cooled in summer by two small fans set into their ceilings. When the trolley was in motion, air flowing over its top would spin the fans, pulling warm air out of the cars. One student noticed that although the motion of any given fan was fairly random—fans could turn either clockwise or counterclockwise—the two fans in a single car nearly always rotated in opposite directions. Why was this? Finally he brought the problem to Sommerfeld. “That is easy to explain,” said Sommerfeld. “Air hits the fan at the front of the car first, giving it a random motion in one direction. But once the trolley begins to move, a vortex created by the first fan travels down the top of the car and sets the second fan moving in precisely the same direction.” “But, Professor Sommerfeld,” the student protested, “what happens is in fact the opposite! The two fans nearly always rotate in different directions.” “Ahhhh!” said Sommerfeld. “But of course that is even easier to explain.” --Devine and Cohen, Absolute Zero Gravity, p. 96. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 30 2015 02:46 gumshoe wrote: why didn't you let onegu explain T_T it was a twap. given onegu's words per day it would take another 72 hours to hear back from him | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 30 2015 02:51 Vivax wrote: He probably saw two wagons, all on mafia, is too tired to play properly with his flu. Dropped a vote on hopeless and went to bed thinking "one for the team". yeah honestly nothing that's happened has made me think "lynching GB 1G H1 is bad" it's all consistent | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 29 2015 03:44 gumshoe wrote: Thats very true, but we have a certain context to clash against my argument, which gives it some utility. heres the frame my argument provides. Scum want to win, scum need to mislynch townies, rayn on paper is the most mislynchable townie, but they shot him, so clearly there was some reason that scum were not confident in mislynching him. There are two possibilities. 1: The majority of Scum are pushing rayn and the rest of town are opposed, which would mean a combination of xatalos, ritoky, gb and vivax, 2 of which, vivax and gb, cant be scum together, and the other 2 arent likely scum based of thier play. so not real hit there. 2: The majority of scum are town reading rayn for varius reasons, and cannot switch to him without contradicting themselves. townies fairly vehemently oposed to rayn bieng scum (hopeless, gumshoe, onegu, bh chromatically) three of these players, me you and chrom, appear townie from thier play, but hopeless and onegu do fit the mold of a majority scum team that cannot mislynch rayn because they are townreading him. Basically when you cross refrence scummy play with the argument that most of sum are townreading rayn and therefore cannot mislynch him, and the argument that most of scum are scum reading him therefore they cannot lynch him, this is the only real hit you get. Does that make sense? Imagine the two possibilities of the fan argument, but consider as well that there are markings on the wall that suggest one rotation as opposed to the other. That's how one would figure the truth in such a matter. Yeah, I get what you're getting at, I just don't really think it's the most relevant to figuring out the alignments. In any case, we're in agreement, so it's all good. On October 29 2015 03:45 gumshoe wrote: I seriously do, your awesome, thanks for inviting me back to mafia btw you've been a joy to play with this game : D Thanks! I've enjoyed playing with you as well. I forgot what fun we've had. I'm pretty sure we've finally gotten this wrapped up, too, so that's great. This is actually my first game I've played in quite a while. I've been on a hosting spree mostly | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 30 2015 03:25 Vivax wrote: BH what do you think of what rayn said about you, I think you never talked about it. That you just flail around lynches without wanting one, basically. What do I think of that? I don't. I think it's pretty clear I'm town and I haven't felt any need to defend myself this game. When I spend time, I typically spend it analyzing, writing cases, and hunting scum. If you have particular questions for me, I'm glad to answer them, but I think my work speaks for itself. It IS true that I tried shennannies two days in a row, and both times failed-- but I don't think that is scummy at all. Could I have been more effective about shennannies? Sure, I think if I had been a bit more clear on organizing the D2 shennannies, it might have worked. Looking back on it, it seems we actually had a majority of people wanting to lynch 1G over Yam. At the time, though, it was hard to tell that based on facts on the ground, and many people stubbornly refused to move off of yam (which is the prerogative). The fact my shennanigans didn't work out isn't because I'm scum, it's just there wasn't the will in the town for them to happen. As it is today, I see no reason for shennannies so you won't see any from me. I think we've got this game wrapped up and am not worried; either wagon is fine. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25557 Posts
On October 30 2015 04:21 Xatalos wrote: Currently GB is getting lynched... Can't really convince myself to push Onegu over GB. In any case, both probably need to be lynched. I can even move my vote to GB if there's some demand/reasoning for that order? Eh, i'm in the same boat. Either is fine, we need to lynch both of them anyways | ||
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