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On October 14 2015 02:13 Koshi wrote:No seriously. He can get behind the wagon on TT except for the fact that there are already 2 people on the wagon, who actually most likely believed the same thing GB believed but didn't have the hesitance of somebody already being on the wagon. Then GB proceeds to call these 2 people suspicious. ![[image loading]](http://media.giphy.com/media/5aLrlDiJPMPFS/giphy.gif)
Lol :D
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On October 14 2015 04:57 Tictock wrote:So this caught my eye when I first read it. I held off commenting right away kus I know Rels often does opening post analysis, and wanted to see if he'd catch it too. Basically the idea is that scum are unsure how to open and will often spend extra time on their first posts and talk about multiple subjects. Xat's open practically screamed that to me. Show nested quote +On October 13 2015 19:24 Xatalos wrote:Btw if you want to see the up-to-date votecount then it's here at all times: https://mafia-votecount.herokuapp.com/#495390-crossfire-mafiaI truly hope the VT claims are from anti-town parties / blues since otherwise it's just, frankly, playing against your win condition. It'd be preferable if nobody claimed roles D1 or even after that without good reason. On October 13 2015 08:15 Koshi wrote:
Town.
Going to go with a plynch all liars through the entire game. Will totally ruin the game because town are lying bitches. But I will do it.
If nobody lies I will use spidersenses.
4 antitown. Way too much anti town kp. First days are a joke.
If there are 9 townies who need to lynch 4 anti townies while these antitownies got 4 kp and are immune to the other antitownies their kp the game is a total joke.
There are also way to many blue roles. Blue roles with completely random effects based on the skill of the player.
So tbh. If I try and lynch anti town D1 I will just get rewarded with a bullet and anti town will start shooting town faster than we can lynch anti town. Doesn't make any fucking sense.
tldr 1: Koshi is going to do absolutely nothing the first days because the game looks like a joke. He might say some random shit about random people. He will appreciate it that when these random people are actually anti town that they won't shoot Koshi.
tldr2: Read tldr 1 This felt a bit wrong to me. What I mean is the fact that Koshi was primarily concerned about his own life and while saying that town's position is bad (which should lead to the conclusion that it's time to play well), he concludes that he's going to lurk.. Which left me with the feeling that rather than having good lynches, he just wanted to avoid getting shot. The strongest motivation for that would be if he's anti-town. It's still possible that he's blue or something, but if that's the case, then it's pretty bad play to announce your survival instinct so clearly (making it less likely that you're a VT). Also Koshi: I don't agree that town is underpowered. The anti-towns can kill each other as well, and we have 2 (kind of) Medics in the game. Well, it is a bit random that way. That's 4 different topics, 3 if you combine anything related to Koshi. 1-Votecount link 2- VT Claims, No Claims 3- Quote and scumread on Koshi 4- Town not underpowered The quote in 3 was also brought up by Slam earlier, same bolding even, but maybe that's weak. This might hold even better given that it has been sometime since Xat played here + Show Spoiler + and could very well be concerned about his open if he rolled scum. Also his defense of Moosy felt a little off, as did his early town read + Show Spoiler +On October 13 2015 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
My gut feeling is that MoosyDoosy is town. If you ask me why? It's because he's taking it so easy while being accused. I think it's a bit more likely to become defensive or even over-react somehow if you're actually not town, rather than joke around. Especially since there are several anti-town factions, it's even more dangerous for you if votes get piled on you... . Especially given that he says this Show nested quote +On October 13 2015 19:54 Xatalos wrote:
Still, basically there's never a reason not to play as town. Only scum(/anti-town) benefits from a silent thread. And it even makes the game MORE random since there's less to work with. Moosy's filter defines silent btw, half of his page is pre-game. Show nested quote +On October 13 2015 20:12 Xatalos wrote:On October 13 2015 20:09 Xatalos wrote:
##Vote: Sylencia Oh yeah... This was mostly because I disliked his style of just cautiously/briefly popping into the thread to make some semi-useless comment, then disappear. That and the fact that others who had posted so far had at least something town-leaning going for them. That's quite a bit of picking and choosing in how he applies this logic. So yea, this guy has been my top scumread for quite some time, and I'm fairly sure Xata flips non-town here.
##Vote: Xatalos
Well yeah, at this point MoosyDoosy's inactivity is starting to get irritating. I still get the feeling that anti-town wouldn't blatantly make themselves suspicious like that... Or generally just act without care for their own survival. In my experience people like that are usually town who get easily mislynched by scum. *Rarely* there are cases where scum take that as their strategy and WIFOM themselves out of suspicion... I kind of doubt MoosyDoosy is going for such a high-risk play.
Out of curiosity, when did I become your top scumread? You haven't really even mentioned me before that, but you said "for a long time". The case is kind of a cherry-picked gathering of pretty null-leaning things as well.
Not sure how talking about several topics in your opening is really scummy. Many people have done that.
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On October 14 2015 05:23 Rels wrote:
Actually it only means something if xatalos and moosy are in a team together. Otherwise that illogical defense of Moosy is without a purpose. So by voting xatalos you're also suspecting moosy to be his teammate ?
I guess he's indicating that as scum I'd just be making up inconsistent reads? I don't think he means I'd defend a teammate like that. That'd be just stupid.
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On October 14 2015 05:30 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2015 05:23 Rels wrote:
Actually it only means something if xatalos and moosy are in a team together. Otherwise that illogical defense of Moosy is without a purpose. So by voting xatalos you're also suspecting moosy to be his teammate ? That's a good point actually. Because its teams of 2, scumteams will probably have to hard defend each other from lynches. Bussing is not a viable strat this game because both sides have KP.
Hm.. I guess that's a worthwhile point.
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Hm...
"So yea, this guy has been my top scumread for quite some time, and I'm fairly sure Xata flips non-town here."
Dunno why, but this sentence felt fake to me. This is all new information to the thread at least, but apparently he's been thinking these "for quite some time". How am I so suddenly strongly scum when there was no indication of that beforehand?
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On October 14 2015 05:36 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2015 05:31 Xatalos wrote:On October 14 2015 05:30 deconduo wrote:On October 14 2015 05:23 Rels wrote:
Actually it only means something if xatalos and moosy are in a team together. Otherwise that illogical defense of Moosy is without a purpose. So by voting xatalos you're also suspecting moosy to be his teammate ? That's a good point actually. Because its teams of 2, scumteams will probably have to hard defend each other from lynches. Bussing is not a viable strat this game because both sides have KP. Hm.. I guess that's a worthwhile point. The point he's agreeing is that you could be scum with moosy Why are you agreeing with him I suppose you are agreeing with the fact there are two teams of two and teammates wouldn't bus ... I don't know this seems weird to me
Yeah I agreed that in this setup, it's less likely that scum would bus each other.
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On October 14 2015 03:45 CopCake wrote:
Rels and GB being like I suspect GB but I still answer glowing bear questions.
NO FUCKING WAY, you two are also mafia, take back my GB townread.
Btw I don't understand this part
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I don't even remember anything about gobble lol. MoosyDoosy isn't semi-useless, he's useless. (which might look worse than semi-useless at first but I mean... scum purposefully gathering negative attention? not as likely IMO)
Rels: because I just noticed the weird part
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Yeah this was a majority lynch... Then we'll definitely want to ensure a lynch and consolidate on 1-2 players towards the end.
A bit conflicted on TicTock overall. His recent posts have seemed more decent and pretty focused on scumhunting and such... So he might not really be the best lynch today. I think I can sort of understand why he's pushing me... It just feels tunneled when he's focused on it so much, and the evidence isn't really that good... But oh well. I wouldn't probably be the priority mislynch target for scum anyway since I'm not easy to lynch. Tentatively could be town?
MoosyDoosy's read post was pretty terrible. Not even the reads themselves so much, but the fact that like half of the players were included for lynching for whatever reasons. Town usually tend to focus on like 1-3 players they'd rather lynch, whereas he focused on as many players as possible. It just gave the feeling that he'd be fine with getting any of those players lynched given the opportunity.
Well, the reads too... I also flinched when I saw the part "CopCake has had good thoughts" when she hasn't really said anything sensible yet.
I think it's very unlikely that the anti-town factions would push members of their own faction in this setup D1, especially when the setup is so "swingy" and the lynch is everything but decided yet. It's not totally impossible, but I doubt they would want to immediately crash their chances of victory for a little town cred. I think these anti-town factions are quite unlikely:
Sylencia/CopCake
MoosyDoosy/Superbia
Onegu/MoosyDoosy
gobbledydook/CopCake
deconduo/CopCake
Not sure how much this information can be used before any actual flips, but.... It should be at least kept in mind.
At least I'm like 95% certain that Sylencia/CopCake aren't in the same faction. Otherwise I see absolutely no sense for Sylencia to suddenly go so hard against CopCake. It's very plausible that they could be on opposing factions, though. It could make sense especially since Sylencia focuses on CopCake being "3rd party"... Although in fact it does make slight sense for CopCake to be 3rd party like Sylencia said? Considering that she uses only the word "mafia" and never mentions anything about 3rd parties. Not really a strong point... But scum!Sylencia would probably notice that more easily than town!Sylencia, I guess.
Overall, I don't think any of CopCake/MoosyDoosy/Sylencia are really bad bets. Sylencia probably least of them... I just don't really like his overall lackluster posting (popping irregularly to make some post that makes absolutely no impact on the game) and now this hard push on CopCake for "looking like 3rd party" (TMI...?).
Not completely sure which one has the highest chances of flipping anti-town... But maybe CopCake looks the worst right now, slightly, especially with posts like these...
On October 14 2015 10:58 CopCake wrote:
you think rels is town tho.
that makes you mafia.
There's 0% logic there. The reads themselves are ridiculous, but the worst part is not pushing Rels if just "thinking Rels is town" is the reason to scumread someone (with that reasoning most players in the game would be scum btw). It's just hard to grasp she could be genuinely making these reads at all.
##Vote CopCake
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Hm yeah I guess so... Although that kind of seems too easy :D
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I've only seen scum CopCake before and she seemed more townie than now that time >.>
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Well, it's partly because of the Skype discussions and her being heavily townread by one other player too...
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On October 14 2015 22:06 Tictock wrote:
Ok I promised this, but I'm already rethinking some stuff. I'll be keeping up with the thread as I can at work, though I wont be able to post much till near EoD.
Probably Town
Rels - I should point out that Rels is a very strong scum player so people shouldn't give him an easy pass just because he's active. Still I have a hard time seeing him rolling scum 3 games in a row, and I'm not having any sneaking suspicions of him like I did in SoW2.
GlowingBear - I've agreed with most of his posts, he's not all over the place and causing confusion like I've seen him do as scum. Even the post where he suggested blues claim if they need to didn't feel like role hunting to me.
Town Lean
Koshi - Poked his head out way early, pretty active though most of it is complaining about the balance
deconduo - Joined the game late, made a decent reads post and was pretty much the first person to seriously push Cake. Probably would be a straight town read besides the fact he's been fairly inactive.
Sylencia - I'm actually not sure why I'm leaning town on Syl over straight null, something about his tone feels townie
Null
Onegu
CopCake
Superbia - I agree with GB, a couple of his posts felt towny. Continueing to throw out the "brb" thing after getting called out on it seems townie to me as well.
Alakaslam - Really not sure how to read Slam, he's low null right now because I don't have time to filter dive him and I don't recall anything he's done this game
Scum/Scum Lean
gobbledydook
MoosyDoosy
Xatalos
I didn't leave a note next to the people I've been discussing recently anyways.
If you liked my last post, why am I still top scum while CopCake/Sylencia (two of the main suspects) are town/null? Or was this just some post you prepared before and only posted now? Why not correct it before posting then?
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Btw I'm not sure how strict the rules for non-voting are, but CopCake's vote didn't count because it was only something like "#name". Or was it even a vote? Anyways, people should probably vote correctly before the deadline hits...
Tictock: I'm not really sure about you yet. Maybe a part of it could be the contradictory feelings about your push on me. On the other hand, it's hard to feel it being town-motivated when I'm town, but when you think about it, it's not like I'm a very good target to push for anti-town. The reasons also aren't absolute trash like some players (CopCake, MoosyDoosy etc.) have presented. Still I feel there's definitely a bias to present null-leaning things more negatively than they should be, but it's hard to say if that's town or anti-town tunneling for the time being.
The list's value isn't great right now, but I just wrote it down for later. At LYLO it could prove to be crucial, for example (as a piece to the puzzle of figuring out the factions).
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On October 15 2015 01:50 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2015 01:25 Xatalos wrote:
Btw I'm not sure how strict the rules for non-voting are, but CopCake's vote didn't count because it was only something like "#name". Or was it even a vote? Anyways, people should probably vote correctly before the deadline hits...
Tictock: I'm not really sure about you yet. Maybe a part of it could be the contradictory feelings about your push on me. On the other hand, it's hard to feel it being town-motivated when I'm town, but when you think about it, it's not like I'm a very good target to push for anti-town. The reasons also aren't absolute trash like some players (CopCake, MoosyDoosy etc.) have presented. Still I feel there's definitely a bias to present null-leaning things more negatively than they should be, but it's hard to say if that's town or anti-town tunneling for the time being.
The list's value isn't great right now, but I just wrote it down for later. At LYLO it could prove to be crucial, for example (as a piece to the puzzle of figuring out the factions). TT s arguments are good though. You used different logic for different people, and most importantly you only voted on ongoing trains. You cannot dismiss them as " not trash" and "null leaning things".
Tbh I think I explained my "different" treatment of MoosyDoosy and Sylencia, and nobody else has really brought up Sylencia as far as I remember. But I don't really even care too much right now. There's no way I'm getting lynched today and things should be clearer after the lynch&kills, I hope.
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That's just not a reason to scumread anyone. Answering a question means being polite, and you can do it even if you're 100% sure someone is scum. And nobody sure as hell can't be 100% sure on anything during D1...
Please someone else put your vote down on CopCake. A no-lynch would be pretty sad in this situation. At best we lynch anti-town (pretty likely), at worst we move the game forward at our pace rather than having CopCake as a problem tomorrow.
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And yeah, MoosyDoosy might be the groupie with CopCake or something >.> Seeing as he's defending CopCake so much despite being next on the line.
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I don't really like the comments from Koshi/Tictock about "not taking responsibility". Why would you say that as town? To preserve your ego or something? Usually scum are more concerned about their credibility and launch those kinds of credibility-preserving lines when things are heated.
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On October 15 2015 06:28 Koshi wrote:
Nha. I dont believe in this lynch. But you know her. I am cool with it
You know her?
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EPT
