EPTNewbie Student Mafia XIV: Firefly - Page 6
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 09 2015 01:26 GlowingBear wrote: Again? I'll gonna explain in a list because it seems people don't read full posts. 1) at day1 asks power roles that doesn't have a vigi on their setup to claim. This doesn't makes sense if he is the doctor 2) I claim doctor, he moves away from my lynch. If he is the doctor he never does that. 3) at the start of day2, places a vote in me, but changes to moosydoosy. If he is the doctor, he places his vote on me and never let go. 1. IDK, this is strange, since he'd basically be outing the cop. One explanation is that, as the medic, he'd be able to save the cop n1. But yeah, this is sub-optimal play because the medic can't save the same person on consecutive nights. Just as well the cop didn't claim, I guess. Still, this doesn't make him mafia, it just makes him wrong. 2. If he hadn't moved, he would have made himself an excellent choice for blue-sniping. He was an okay choice for mafia to shoot anyway, honestly, but still. If he says "I am never ever moving off GB ever", he definitely wears the shot and the roleblock. IDK, trying to WIFOM mafia night actions is hard, but this is probably the explanation that makes most sense. 3. Meh, maybe he thought that my argument (don't lynch GB because flips will out him in due course anyway) made him think that people weren't going to be up for lynching you today, so he thought he'd lead town in a more productive direction. In conclusion, yes, I agree the above are sub-optimal play / strange. But there is no way that they outweigh the fact that the other two options are: - rayn is mafia, and he CC'd you, thereby ensuring his death D3, where he would have been in no difficulty otherwise. Also his CC was so early in the day that it can't have been intended to save a scum-mate under pressure - nobody was under any pressure yet! This is just a terrible, terrible, terrible play from a mafia rayn, and it seems super unlikely. - rayn is VT. In which case he gets the aforementioned nad kicking for being the worst townie ever in the history of my experience in mafia. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Actually, no, because if there's a vig in the setup, whoever it is, then they 1,000,000,000,000% shoot GB overnight, unless they're really really dumb. IDK whether the other setup (cop/JK is possible either) ... in that scenario if he was the JK he doesn't claim because he can't save himself I don't think, and if he's the cop then he doesn't know you're not the actual medic. So yeah, those possibilities aren't worth discussing. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
Anyway, yeah. Like I said, you're 95% Mafia. No chance I move off you. I've heard your arguments and I think mine are stronger. I liked Superbia's effort in his list post earlier, but I totally disagree with his Slam read. I basically think I need to get to grips with Cake, because I think figuring out her alignment will make this a bunch easier. I'm out this evening but I'll be back on tonight. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:21 NocturneMage wrote: damn I lost my last post gah md, her top scumreads were you/nk/gb I faulted her for her reads on you/slam/gb, the n00bking read was reasonable and so didn't cite it it's possible she's mafia for pushing n00bking, would easily be able to take advantage of that but again at face value it's reasonable, I and plenty others saw fault with nk's gameplay to scumread or vote him but yet again, this conflicts with her interactions with gb, again assuming gb flips scum so therefore it's not reasonable to top read her now, not in your current world and not unless you think gb is flipping town The thing is dude that yes, she did read GB as scum, but the mentions of him were pretty sparse, and she said on more than one occasion that she much preferred to lynch n00b or Moosy. I don't think she gets nearly as much town cred from her GB read as you are giving her. The issue I have with Cake ... Well there are two. 1. She clearly has her own way of playing and of typing, and I personally find it quite difficult to follow. I just read her entire filter, and it's all so conversational and responsive that it's difficult to get a real sense of where she stands. It's not that this makes her Mafia, it means that my read on her is likely to be bad. 2. I'm kind of confused by her and Rayn having "ride or die" town reads on each other. I think Rayn is about to be exonerated by the GB flip, but cake came into the thread and straight away was convinced Rayn was town. I find that ... Suspicious. Like, you can be friends OOG, like me and HTS (<3) but we're never gonna give each other a free pass in Mafia. Yes, I have a Rayn town read- everyone does. But if you read Cake's filter, you'll see that a LOT of the posts are based on the premise that Rayn is town. If Rayn were to flip Mafia, her filter would be just awful. And that's the best reason to scum read her imo. So yeah, I think Cake is a scum read for me now. i think before I was taken in by her conversational style, which seemed towny (see point 1 above). The only reason I hate this read is that it probably makes Moosy town. But my read on Moosy is evolving in the same way as my read on n00b - his posts are too dumb to be Mafia. Still, that leaves me with only Slam and Rayn as solid town reads, Moosy as 'probably dumb town' and a whole lot of null and cake as a very slight scum lean. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:34 CopCake wrote: For the people who think I am mafia: WHY THE FUCK WOULD I KILL YAMATO WHO FUCKING TOWNSREADS ME AND WOULD PROTECT ME FOREVERS? In that scenario he wouldn't be a treat to me. Cake, can you please link us to the post where Yamato says he town-reads you? I just went back through his filter and I saw one post where he said "I don't like MD, therefore I don't like the Cake lynch", but that's hardly ... like a strong read. But I may have missed it. NK WIFOM is always dangerous, but if there's something I missed where Yamato said that then that would be kinda strong evidence the other way. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
On September 09 2015 06:58 NocturneMage wrote: she didn't say much fidei but it was early but then take into account what she did with him at eod - she voted him over n00bking, who was mislynched - she called out gb for claiming too late do you really think partners would do this? Sure. It's typical mafia play to include your scum buddies as soft-scum reads early on. It's not what your reads are, it's what you do with them and how you push them. Obviously people have scum reads, and having a scum read and not pushing them is hardly a reliable mafia tell. That said, you don't get *town* cred for having your mafia buddy on your scum list. You get town cred for jumping onto a mafia wagon early, or for pinging out a mafia player early AND pushing them. That's why yamato was the NK, imo. No way he ever gets MLed after he pushes GB. It's also why I think Slam is a pretty safe townread. Even scott gets some too, although less. I don't think Cake gets very much. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
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On September 09 2015 07:51 CopCake wrote: He said i was hard to read but now he says I am easily scum :D ... I said that I thought you were a scum-lean. I didn't say you were "easily scum". And I said you were potential scum because of your read on rayn, not because of your meta or your tone or your style. Other people have based their reads in part on that stuff, but I don't know how reliable it is BECAUSE I think you are hard to read. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
I know we went over this yesterday, but the longer this goes on, the weirder it gets. | ||
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Fidei86
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Fidei86
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Scott was the second vote, so he gets lots of town points. Scott was also getting quite a lot of flack from GB, which is kinda convincing too. Seems unlikely that GB would throw his vote onto his scum buddy when nobody else was really on scott. Rayn is basically the confirmed doctor. Cake gets *some* town cred, but her reads on GB were pretty weak, so it's nowhere near as much as Slam or scott. I need to read Superbia, NM and Breshke's reads on GB. Breshke AFKing in such a contested lynch is suspicious, but he's on a different timeline. Moosy refusing to vote GB, despite the overwhelming evidence that he was mafia following rayn's CC is just so dumb, IDK, it feels like arrogant town play, rather than incredibly dense mafia play. I remind you all that I was pretty early onto the GB wagon, for what it's worth. It's not like I had a good read on GB, I'll admit, but I was like third or fourth or something. I also was the one who riddled out the hardest against GB's claim. I really feel that the scum team is most likely two of Cop, NM, Superbia and Breshke. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
"Bussing" is thrown around a lot here, but honestly I've seen mafia pile on to plenty of mafia wagons. The thing to look out for is: 1. Does their vote feel organic and well supported by reasoning, or does it seem opportunistic; AND 2. Was their vote early enough that it actually made a difference, either in gaining the lynch momentum or pushing it over the edge? For me, I honestly had a pretty poor read on GB d1. I did post that his reads were all over the place, but it wasn't a hard read or anything. My reasoning for switching onto him was basically "I hate the Cake and the Rayn lynches", and GB seemed like the much better option to me. I was fourth or fifth onto him. So I was either the hammer, or I was near enough. On d1. I think it was fairly obvious that a big wagon was going to build on him (scott, for example, hadn't voted yet but he was scum reading GB), so I get less town cred than otherwise. But yeah, I think I should get a fair bit. I was also the only one making the obvious argument that GB's claim was rubbish and rayn's claim was correct. I get WAY less credit for that, because it was so frikkin' obvious. I've been playing voice all evening, so I'll have to follow-up the filters in the morning. | ||
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
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Fidei86
United Kingdom2116 Posts
"I hate the Cake and the n00b lynches". Not "I hate the Cake and the Rayn lynches." | ||
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