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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 20 2015 14:39 Breshke wrote: .......no because we lose at 4-3 because even if we lynch and it goes 4-2 they have 2 kp and it goes 2-2 8-3 6-3 MYLO (but actually LYLO) 6-2 4-2 LYLO 4-1 3-1, no lynch 2-1, 3 player LYLO So basically, if we get two scum lynches straight, we get to no lynch once, and then have to hit scum again in 3 player LYLO. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Half the Sky is almost certainly town here. I lied earlier. Rsoultin is likely town as well. Town Half the Sky Town Lean rsoultin Oatsmaster ??? ruXxar XEliteBlueHunter69X WaveofShadow Mafia lean boxerfred Mafia Clarity_nl A brief explanation of why Half the Sky is town: + Show Spoiler + I tried to look for evidence of her phone posting, and I noticed that her posting seemed to be like all of her other posts. Then I noticed that she actually claimed to be phone posting for much of the game. If this was a sinister plot to fake phone posting while being on a computer, it was done long in advance. Furthermore, said "wisdom" instead of "wifom" and had to EBWOP it out. Half the Sky was seeming very towny, and no one was really scumreading her at all. If she's scum, she's in an incredible spot. There is absolutely no need to force town to no lynch and draw attention to herself, when she could just force the lynch onto town, and come out of it looking far better. This means that regardless of Half the Sky's alignment, the no-lynch was unintentional*. *There might be a slight possibility that mafia!Half the Sky would intentionally play for a no lynch like this if rsoultin is town and XEliteBlueHunter69X is mafia, because her voting for rsoultin wouldn't have made sense given her earlier play and a no lynch kept XEliteBlueHunter69X alive, but this doesn't make much sense because Half the Sky seemed very willing to lynch XEliteBlueHunter69X from an earlier point in the day anyway. Assuming that Half the Sky unintentionally caused the no lynch (which I think is a very safe assumption), she seemed very frantic around the deadline. Half the Sky is good at scum, but I just have so much trouble seeing mafia!Half the Sky taking any risks here, or trying to portray more complex things (in this case, being frantic and pressured for time). There's really no need, because as scum, Half the Sky should just take control of the game and force the remaining mislynch(es) in. It wouldn't be very hard at all for her to do. It's simply not worth it for her to appear anything less than confident and measured. Half the Sky is town. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 20 2015 17:46 boxerfred wrote: It's one potential mafia team. I believe there are 84 potential mafia teams, currently (counting everyone as potential mafia). I'm willing to ignore this one possible team for two reasons. One, we're basically in triple LYLO and can't afford to be paranoid about everything, and second, if the mafia team contains rsoultin and Half the Sky, two of the leading posters, I can't imagine them letting the lynch fall between two mafia and not doing that much about it.Why? Why am I a moron for taking this into consideration? I say that it is very possible that both voted people are members of the scum team. So please, please, please explain very thoroughly, for a dumb moron as I am one, why this is not possible. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 20 2015 22:10 rsoultin wrote: I think I really like this read.bueno, so i'm at a scumteam of clarity/wave/bf it's a bit wifomy, but i really don't see ebh as a stupid enough player to allow himself to get lynched as scum just to protect scummate clarity...because clarity almost definitely is the next phase's lynch if he flips scum heh >< and there's really no other scum-motivated explanation for his play last phase I don't know what to make of ruXxar's logic being so incorrect. And him missing End of Day without warning, then coming back and just being apparently frustrated for the no-lynch. It sort of feels like mafia getting lazy near the end of the game, but I really don't know. Also, it seems that my list post was pretty stupid, as most people have the same scumreads as me. Oh well. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 21 2015 10:01 ruXxar wrote: Take some time, and think about it. Think about all of the possibilities. Think about mafia motivations. Come back and let me know.How is my logic incorrect? In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him? No world if you ask me. This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions: World #1: Rsoul is mafia. The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel. World #2: Rsoul is town. All 3 mafia are already voting on her. The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH. (I'm not trying to be intentionally obtuse, I need to go eat dinner now, but this really is something you should be able to figure out yourself...) | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Clarity_nl Working on some big analysis (in terms of effort, so far not as big in terms of actual importance). Hoping it leads to something eventually. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 21 2015 10:01 ruXxar wrote: Anyway, ruXxar, as much as I want to see if you can figure it out for yourself, I eventually decided that the value gained from focusing the discussion and getting your reactions now is preferable. Plus, you've had plenty of time to think about it.How is my logic incorrect? In what world does mafia NOT hammer a townie with 5 afk votes on him? No world if you ask me. This makes the game really simple and I see only 2 possible solutions: World #1: Rsoul is mafia. The mafia team is rsoul, clarity and trfel. World #2: Rsoul is town. All 3 mafia are already voting on her. The mafia team is BF, Wave and EBH. From the Day 5 lynch: + Show Spoiler [If Mislynch] + 7 Town 3 Mafia 5 Town 3 Mafia, LYLO (assume lynch scum) 5 Town 2 Mafia 3 Town 2 Mafia, LYLO 3 Town 1 Mafia 2 Town 1 Mafia LYLO Basically, it's triple LYLO, with the last one being three players. + Show Spoiler [If No Lynch] + 8 Town 3 Mafia 6 Town 3 Mafia, LYLO 6 Town 2 Mafia 4 Town 2 Mafia LYLO 4 Town 1 Mafia 3 Town 1 Mafia MYLO (assuming town no-lynches) 2 Town 1 Mafia LYLO It ends up in the same place, just one day slower. Basically, mafia doesn't actually have much incentive for getting a mislynch on town instead of lynching scum; in fact, lynching town means that there's one less townie for the next two lynches (which increases town's lynch percentage). Basically, mafia doesn't necessarily want to hammer town!rsoultin. And that crushes the foundation of your argument. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 22 2015 07:51 Clarity_nl wrote: I'll work on it tonight.Trfel you should consider voting for your better half instead I just have a really hard time seeing mafia!rsoultin defend me so much. It's just not worth it, at all. Why pocket a Trfel who isn't playing? It doesn't even give town credit if I flip town, because it feels like TMI. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
 Assuming that I was 100% confirmed as town, would anyone still be scumreading rsoultin? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
THIS IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT!!! On July 22 2015 07:49 Blazinghand wrote: This is the current vote count. Unless someone voting for Clarity_nl votes for rsoultin instead, Clarity_nl is going to be lynched.Vote Count Clarity_nl (5): Trfel, Half the Sky, XEliteBlueHunter69X, Oatsmaster, rsoultin rsoultin (4): ruXxar, boxerfred, Clarity_nl, WaveofShadow Not Voting (0): Currently, Clarity_nl is set to be lynched. With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day ends at Wednesday, Jul 22 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) in . Voting is Mandatory! Voting is done in the voting thread: (link) However, this is LYLO. Mafia just needs to not get lynched, it doesn't matter if they out the entire mafia team in the process. For example, if there is one mafia on Clarity_nl right now, and no one moves their vote, at the very last second this mafia member can change their vote to some random person to result in a no lynch, instantly winning the game. Basically, this means that any town voting for the losing wagon at End of Day is extremely detrimental for town. Even if you are almost positive that the person being lynched is town and the other wagon is scum, it's STILL better to switch votes and prevent scum from being able to force a no lynch. At least that way, there is a chance of winning. Anyway, I'm not lynching rsoultin. I just have a really, really hard time seeing her as scum. Because of her defense of me, but also because of her reason for XEliteBlueHunter69X being town (which is really good, and I'm not sure scum would really want to share, unless XEliteBlueHunter69X is also scum but I think that is very unlikely), and because of her willingness to post purely to show her thoughts and without any interest in looking good. Honestly, I worry a bit that Oatsmaster could be mafia. I just never know how to read him, and I didn't read enough of this game to be confident in townreading him. His posting this game seems very good, but he has a very capable scum game, so I'm not entirely sure. I guess it's not too big of a deal, because if he is scum the game is probably lost, but it does worry me a little. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 22 2015 12:20 Oatsmaster wrote: Why would rsoultin defend me when I'm clearly not playing with out-of-game information as mafia? I just can't possibly see what she could hope to gain from this.Why is your alignment linked to rsoul? The dma thing? I dont think its alignment indicative. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Most likely Clarity_nl, WaveofShadow, and one of ruXxar/boxerfred. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 22 2015 13:08 Oatsmaster wrote: But why would she want to pocket me when I made it clear that I wasn't going to play the game, when she knows that I am ridiculously lazy as town, and I was looking like one of the best vigilante shots?giving townreads as mafia is a thing that happens. she did it to pocket you. Thats a decent reasom/ | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyone want to talk about stuff? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 22 2015 14:16 Oatsmaster wrote: I think the most likely people are ruXxar and boxerfred, currently I'm maybe leaning towards boxerfred. Some chance of rsoultin, but I guess I just have a really hard time seeing that.er yeah, who else is mafia? We still have 2 mafia to go after clarity. wave+someone. I'm leaning for boxerfred due to just the sheer amount of disinterest he seems to show. He's not wanting to discuss or re-evaluate at all. RuXxar seems to be trying to figure things out. Though I know ruXxar can play reasonably well as mafia, I just really think that town!boxerfred would be more willing to interact with people. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 23 2015 02:21 ruXxar wrote: There were so many discussions over the number of lynches and potentially no-lynching in the thread, I'm positive that the mafia figured it out. When I played as mafia, I always wanted to know how many more mislynches I needed (so I could know when I could stop playing).What's bothering me about trfel is the fact that he was the only one that pointed out that scum would be content with a no-lynch. And then I think : "Why would scum say something that incriminates himself" and of course they wouldn't, except for the fact that since scum wouldn't say that, we think he's town. So it turns into wifom city and I can't really use it to determine alignments either way. It's just that I can't step away from the thought that the natural reaction for scum is to lynch town. Like, if I was to list the people I think are smart enough to reason out the line of thinking that a no-lynch is prefered over a mis-lynch it's basically only Trfel and WoS amongst all the people here.(no offense to the rest) Also the trfel / rsoultin association has been so strong for so long. I think that a Rsoultin / wos / trfel team is not out of the question. It fits pretty well to be honest. My only resistance is the fact that wave hammered rsoultin and also risked rsoultin getting hammered by town when she was left with 5 votes all day, which makes a wave / rsoultin team look very unlikely :/ RuXxar, can you please stop making association reads and assumptions and make your reads primarily based on whether or not their play fits a mafia motivation? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Why is boxerfred town? Why is Oatsmaster town? Why do you say I'm not scum with Clarity_nl, and then in one of your two scum teams have me as scum with Clarity_nl? Why those specific teams/worlds? And unflipped association reads are generally very bad. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On July 23 2015 02:36 ruXxar wrote: On the contrary, lynching the scummiest people WILL win you the game, and that is the best way to do it.Like I already said before to clarity, at this point I'm not going to vote for people unless I can fit them into a world of three. Just lynching the scummiest person is not going to win you the game. I've seen enough times how the towniest looking people are actually scum. I'm trying to be as logical as I can about this and try to not let emotions get in the way of my decisions here. The key is how you use the word "scummy". Some things are commonly called "scummy", such as being inactive, making bad posts, making bad reads, having logic gaps, and lots of things that are objectively bad play. However, these things don't necessarily make someone scum. If you simply lynch the objectively "worse" players, who are playing objectively "worse", you will probably lose the game. But if you lynch based on mafia motivation and reads which are truly alignment indicative, lynching the "scummiest" players (by these standards) is a thousand times better than using unflipped associations. | ||
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