Newbie Student Mafia XI - Page 8

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 21 2015 07:29 GMT

#2335

On June 13 2015 07:14 Trfel wrote:
Rels

1. Lots of early posts with no content, only purpose is to make it seem like he's doing stuff
+ Show Spoiler +

1. Completely useless "hi" post ~10 hours after the game started, not necessary at all.
2. "LOL" in response to ruXxar's contradiction, no conclusion about his alignment at all*
3. Asks a question to ruXxar (still nothing about ruXxar's alignment)
4. Says that MoosyDoosy's first post is weird*
5. Tells n00bKing not to defend ruXxar*
6. Asks a question to Sulfurus*
7. Repeats one of Oatsmaster's comments*

The things with asterisks had been said by someone else before Rels commented on them.

Then he (finally) posts his case on Fake)Plants.

On June 12 2015 17:53 Rels wrote:
OK I finally found a mafia.

And by doing this shows that all of his previous posts amount to very little.

There's really no reason for Rels to post like this, it serves no purpose for scumhunting or confirming his own alignment. All it does is make it look like he's doing work, but repeating things that have already been said isn't even work.

2. Makes a case on the easiest possible target
+ Show Spoiler +

Fake)Plants only had one post.

Rels just continues to talk about this post, spending many, many posts directing people back to it. He's not showing any interest in anything else that's happening.

3. Townread on ruXxar
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 13 2015 00:22 Rels wrote:
Alright ruxxar I was unsure how to read you. But with this post I now believe you're a super excited townie. I too believe that we should not let mafia the ability to stay silent.

So. What do you think of plants first and only post ?

Rels thinks that ruXxar is town for making a post with no content at all. RuXxar made a post saying that MoosyDoosy's defense of himself is really good, and then Rels townreads ruXxar for this. RuXxar's inability to defend himself but willingness to jump on someone else's defense of him is extremely scummy, and reminds me of ShoCkeyy in my last game. There is absolutely no reason for Rels to townread ruXxar because of this post.

Furthermore, he agrees that we shouldn't let the mafia stay silent. And he does this by asking his townread about the only other read he's made in this game, and then vanishing. Not actually acting on this whatsoever.

On June 14 2015 04:32 Trfel wrote:
Rels on Fake)Plants/scott31337

Show nested quote +

(referring to Fake)Plants)

Show nested quote +

I don't understand this at all. He basically says that he has no reason to scumread scott31337 any more, but doesn't townread him in his list post. And then, when geript (who he was voting for at this time) mentions a reason that he moved scott31337 to null (but says that he doesn't remember the reason), Rels is extremely interested and justifies this by referring back to his initial read on Fake)Plants. The read he already said has changed.

He's just jumping on something that's there, and it's hard for me to see him really trying to figure out scott31337's alignment.

On June 14 2015 04:56 Trfel wrote:
Rels' Read Progression

Rels is generally throwing around suspicions on everything. His townread on ruXxar changed after it was clear that the push on ruXxar wasn't going anywhere. He's scumreading people already being scumread by others, and multiple times he uses other people's posts to justify increasing his own suspicions of other people.
+ Show Spoiler [Examples] +

Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this)
Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript)
Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy
Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post)

It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts.

The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling.

On June 15 2015 05:12 batsnacks wrote:
Alright Rels is mafia. His read progression on sulfurus goes like this:

First I voted sulfurus for voting me opportunistically. Rels responds to me saying that if it were anyone but sulfurus then he would consider this scummy, but since sulfurus voted opportunistically last game then it is not scummy.
Rels wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
If it was any other person I would have agree with you about voting opportunistically.
But Sulfu played exactly like that last game.
Rels posts a list post where sulfurus is a town lean.
Rels wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Town lean
Trfel
Sulfu
Oats
ruxxar
Rels repeats that if anyone but sulfurus had voted me the way that sulfurus did, he would consider it scummy. However since sulfurus voted SL and Breshke opportunistically last game as town, then he is not scum reading sulfurus for it.
Rels wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
Yeah I would have agreed if someone else voted you like that. But Sulfu did that day 1 last game. On Breshke and SL.
Rels suddenly says he is suspicious of sulfurus for voting opportunistically, directly contradicting two posts he made earlier explaining that sulfurus voting opportunistically does not make him mafia since he did the same thing in his last game.
Rels wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
No idea who I want to lynch. Two of my three town reads are voting sulfurus. I'm suspicious of Sulfu for two reasons:
- The "case" on KS on his first post doesn't exist
- The vote on BS is opportunist
Rels votes geript and says if the wagon on geript doesn't go anywhere, that he will be switching to sulfurus.
Rels wrote:+ Show Spoiler +
If nobody changes vote and I have to choose between the two wagons I'll vote Sulfu.

##Vote geript

Chronological order:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 13 2015 09:00 Rels wrote:

Show nested quote +

If it was any other person I would have agree with you about voting opportunistically.
But Sulfu played exactly like that last game.

On June 13 2015 09:07 Rels wrote:
Town lean
Trfel
Sulfu
Oats
ruxxar

On June 13 2015 09:11 Rels wrote:

Show nested quote +

Yeah I would have agreed if someone else voted you like that. But Sulfu did that day 1 last game. On Breshke and SL.

On June 13 2015 18:33 Rels wrote:

Show nested quote +

I agree. But quality is not the reason I'm unvoting him.

Show nested quote +

No idea who I want to lynch. Two of my three town reads are voting sulfurus. I'm suspicious of Sulfu for two reasons:
- The "case" on KS on his first post doesn't exist
- The vote on BS is opportunist

On June 13 2015 20:59 Rels wrote:
If nobody changes vote and I have to choose between the two wagons I'll vote Sulfu.

##Vote geript

Show nested quote +

These were some of the suspicions raised on Rels through Day 1 and the start of Day 2. They are quite strong, and Rels didn't answer in a way that alleviated the suspicions. What he did do, though was an incredible burst of activity that made everyone read him as town. Furthermore, the Day 2 voting shows that he scumread Kickstart over Sulfurus.

When Rels started going through all of the filters, his reads were as follows:
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 15 2015 21:20 Rels wrote:
Now it's time for some analyzis. I will read the filters of each players in the game and post an analyzis of him. For fun here is my mind before doing the filter diving:

Town
Sulfurus
Trfel
WaveofShadow

Town lean
ruxxar
Damdred
Oatsmaster
batsnacks

Scum lean
Kickstart

Scum
moosy
scott

Gonna afk 30 minutes to eat, then the analyzis will start. We'll see after that if the list has changed.

He analyzed Kickstart first. And he concluded that Kickstart is mafia. His scumread of Kickstart seems to be strengthened a bit by this filter dive.
He scumread scott31337 as well.
Then he townread Sulfurus, me (Trfel), and WaveofShadow. And a town lean on ruXxar.
He arrived at a mafia lean on MoosyDoosy, and he's less certain of him than when he started.
Null read on batsnacks. Null on Damdred. Town lean on Oatsmaster due to a clear train of thought and lots of comments.

So, all of this analysis resulted in him moving Damdred and batsnacks from town lean to null, moving Kickstart from scum lean to scum, and moving MoosyDoosy from scum to scum lean. This isn't terribly impressive for the work that went into it. The advantage is that he now has cases and explanations for all of his thoughts.

From here, I'll record his major pushes and read changes. Yes, this is somewhat subjective.

Pushes and votes for Kickstart
Said that Kickstart was starting to look more towny, but didn't want to switch because it felt like a mafia switch
Said that he would only agree to switch to scott31337, and ruXxar felt like an easy mislynch
Comments on scott31337's post about Kickstart, but doesn't really say anything about Oatsmaster's alignment (only later does he say that he liked this post)
Still says that Kickstart is mafia

(If you get the trend, he's actually not doing that much. He's not working to talk to his null reads and trying to figure them out, he's only really pushing Kickstart, he didn't draw any conclusion from scott31337's (his scumread) post on Oatsmaster (his town/null/ish read), which he ought to be very interested in. I'll start cutting the small details from this list from now on)
Continued to push Kickstart until the deadline
Townread on Kickstart for the Sulfurus flip
Townread scott31337 for voting for Sulfurus Day 1
Some suspicions of Oatsmaster based on scott31337's post earlier
Townread on MoosyDoosy for scumreading Sulfurus early on
Suspicion of ruXxar for defending Sulfurus
Huge voting analysis, used it to implicate scott31337 for his Day 1 vote and bad reasons (what the heck is "Ninja voted geript just before deadline, almost as if he absolutely wanted to be in the group"???). Also increased suspicions of Damdred, and townread batsnacks a little more strongly. Some more suspicion of Oatsmaster, ruXxar's voting looked fine. He liked Damdred's day 2 voting, suspicious of Oatsmaster's day 2 voting, and really suspicious of scott31337.

This is a lot of work, but he's not really providing reasons for his reads. Mafia can make a vote and explain it clearly, town can ninja vote. Rels isn't taking the next step to arrive at conclusions that make all of the work really worthwhile.
"Cross the lists" read plan resulting in scumreads of scott31337, Damdred, and ruXxar
Scumread Oatsmaster

It's not really obviously scummy, but it doesn't feel right to me. I'm not really sure how to explain it.

It feels like there are three separate sections to Rels' filter. The first part, where he wasn't posting all that much and there were several cases posted on him. The second part, where he reread the thread and then analyzed all of the filters. And the third part, his play since then. In the third part, he's posted far more frequently than the first one, but I haven't noticed a large amount of analysis. He's being active, but he feels almost like he's only doing enough work to scrape by. Probably the best example of this is how his mega analysis resulted in a lot of things to follow up on (his null reads and his scum reads), but all he did was continue to push Kickstart. I don't understand the complete lack of attention he was giving to everyone but Kickstart through this time.

The large voting records that he created are another example of this. While they were certainly a lot of work, I'm not sure what they accomplished, really. He said that he wanted to do it to investigate ruXxar's alignment, but the analysis that he provided could have been obtained far easier just from reading ruXxar's filter. I'm not sure why he did this, and it feels like it's just to look towny.

It sort of feels like he just stepped up his work when he needed to get townread, and he's been doing work more with the motivation to seem active rather than truly solving the game.

Note: this post is one-sided, the other side was presented by WaveofShadow previously.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 21 2015 07:31 GMT

#2336

I just can't see scum being outside of Oatsmaster/ruXxar/Rels. Oatsmaster does feel like the most likely, but I guess it could be ruXxar and Rels.

I'd really appreciate people's thoughts on the above post about Rels.

See you tomorrow.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 06:27 GMT

#2389

Wow.

Normally cop claims make the game easier, you just lynch the red check and if it's wrong, lynch the claimed cop. But at MYLO or LYLO, that doesn't work.

Before the cop claim, I was scumreading Oatsmaster fairly strongly, and I was pretty convinced that WaveofShadow was town.

Setup Analysis
+ Show Spoiler +

We know for a fact that town had a Doctor and a Mad Hatter. Doctor is a very strong power role, and Mad Hatter seems to be of about medium strength (about the same as a vigilante). We don't really know what roles mafia has.

However, most (13 player normal) mafia games are two moderately strong town power roles versus one strong mafia role and one weak mafia role. One example of this is the setup normally used in minis, accepted as a very standard setup.

The newbie setup is as follows:

This game uses a variable open setup. When the game begins, one of the following setups will be chosen:

A) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon
B) 1 Town Cop, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon
C) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Doctor, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon
D) 1 Town Vigilante, 1 Town Veteran, 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Mafia Roleblocker, 1 Mafia Godfather, 1 Mafia Goon

Cop is a strong role, Doctor is a strong role, Vigilante is a moderately strong role, and Veteran is a bit weaker. The setup is at most two strong roles versus one and a half scum roles (Godfather is weaker).

Here are a list of the roles in the 13 player normal games with the last post in the past three months (bumps excluded, also note that all setups are 10 town versus 3 mafia):

Holy Guardians Chapter 1: 1 random blue versus 1 Godfather and 1 Weak Roleblocker (can't roleblock same person twice in a row)
I Still Can't Believe It's Not Themed Mafia: Town Tracker and Jailkeeper versus mafia Framer
Generic Boring Mini Mafia:Town Veteran and Innocent Child versus mafia Vigilante and Roleblocker
Newbie Student Mafia IX: Town Doctor and Vigilante versus mafia Roleblocker and Godfather
Game of Thrones Mini Mafia: Town Watcher and Vigilante versus mafia Roleblocker and Godfather
Newbie Student Mafia VIII: Town Vigilante and Veteran versus mafia Roleblocker and Godfather
Mafia Mini Mafia 2: Town Vigilante and Jailkeeper versus mafia Roleblocker and Vigilante
Newbie Student Mafia VII]Newbie Student Mafia VII: Town Veteran and Vigilante versus mafia Godfather and Roleblocker
XXX Mini Mafia: A Night of Debauchery: Town Roleblocker and Cop (and unaware miller) versus mafia Framer and Godfather

I believe it's pretty clear. Not counting the unaware miller as a power role, every 13 player normal game in the past three months had a maximum of two town power roles.

In contrast, two of the listed games (I Still Cant Believe It's Not Themed Mafia and Game of Thrones Mini Mafia) had a mafia role with no purpose. Framer in the first game, Godfather in the second.

It feels like having a Cop in addition to a Doctor and Mad Hatter is very unlikely.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 06:57 GMT

#2392

Patience is a virtue.

I'm still analyzing stuff.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 07:05 GMT

#2394

I remember the last time I threw a game in LYLO. It was three players, they were voting for each other, I got it wrong.

It still hurts. I refuse to make a similarly terrible mistake again.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 07:16 GMT

#2396

Analysis of Oatsmaster's Filter (with respect to claimed checks)

On June 21 2015 17:37 Oatsmaster wrote:
Im cop, red checked wave yesterday.
greenchecked bats n1, kickstart n2.

Oatsmaster on batsnacks
+ Show Spoiler +

Oatsmaster scumread batsnacks from early in Day 1, and pushed this scumread consistently. However, as the lynch deadline drew closer, he switched his vote from batsnacks to geript. This progression doesn't make much sense, as I described previously:
+ Show Spoiler +

Here's some of Oatsmaster's discussion with batsnacks after MoosyDoosy voted for Sulfurus (putting him into the lead). No posts are omitted.

On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest.

On June 13 2015 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
argh now i feel like im nitpicking.
Ok Ok fine.

On June 13 2015 22:17 batsnacks wrote:

Show nested quote +

I never voted him! And I did explain that no one should claim!

Show nested quote +

And I am NOT the scummiest you are just caught in a logical fallacy that I WILL get you out of.

On June 13 2015 22:21 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

You did. voting thread doesnt count.
If we didnt have a voting thead, you wouldve voted. Answer the question.

Also, what logical fallacy? That you are useless and are not helping town at all, that you constantly complain about getting scumread and you do nothing but scumread the person everyone else thinks is mafia?
Sure, logical fallacy.

You would lynch geript?

Here, it feels that Oatsmaster is suggesting lynching geript with batsnacks, who seven minutes ago he said was the scummiest in the thread. And batsnacks made a whole one post in this time.

On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote:
Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player)

If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up.

1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts.

In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread.

2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point.

Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out.

3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught.

He's not doing this here.

Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads.

Leave the bats alone

So, Oatsmaster had enough doubts about his scumread of batsnacks to agree to lynch geript with him. And this was all before batsnacks caught geript's supposed scumslip. Oatsmaster didn't return until after End of Day.

On June 14 2015 09:33 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

I thought bats looked town.

This quote didn't make any sense before his cop claim. And now it makes even less sense.

If batsnacks looked towny, why does he cop check him Night 1? It's nonsensical. (please, no one but Oatsmaster answer this...)

Imagine that this quote is somehow a mistake, that someone else hacked Oatsmaster's account and posted this. Then you have Oatsmaster scumreading and pushing batsnacks all game, then suddenly unvoting him and voting geript with batsnacks, then cop checking batsnacks Night 1. It STILL doesn't make sense.

Oatsmaster on Kickstart
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 17 2015 08:39 Oatsmaster wrote:
I really dont think anyone should be given a townread for that lynch without kickstart flipping.

Sulph looked really bad the whole game, it might just have been a bus.

Also, both sulph and kickstart expressed an interest in lynching me.

Which is really weird.

Scott switched really late, like 10 minutes before the deadline and you guys are calling him town?!??

So checking Kickstart Night 2 does fit his filter. And he disagreed with the voting analysis that I posted which I feel proved that Kickstart is town. He never bothered to discuss my argument, though, which I would have expected for someone intending to cop check Kickstart that night. "Yea OK I don't agree with that trfel." isn't very helpful for discussion.

A lot of Oatsmaster's Night 2 posts were about people making townreads based on the Sulfurus flip. Oatsmaster continually said that townreads shouldn't be made without knowing Kickstart's alignment.

So, when he comes back on Day 3 (supposedly knowing that Kickstart is town), the first thing he says is that Sulfurus was definitely being bussed by mafia. When he knows that it was a town versus mafia lynch where the votes were 6 to 5 pretty close to the deadline (check it yourself if you don't believe me, using host-created vote counts won't show it).

Choice of Cop Checks
+ Show Spoiler +

As I described previously, Oatsmaster was scumreading and slow pushing Damdred for quite some time. However, he never truly pushed Damdred until after scott31337 was lynched. The question is, why didn't he cop check Damdred?

Here's his explanation:

On June 21 2015 18:38 Oatsmaster wrote:
Dude why would I check damdred if I think he's mafia anyway. The whole game thought he was mafia. And it wasn't mylo/lylo. I checked wos cause I was pretty sure he was mafia and nobody would believe my push.

Dude it wasn't a trap, it was to see if anyone would go on it. And to not slip that I'm cop. Cause it would be super weird for me to suddenly town read someone I've kinda semi scum read the whole game.

Again, why would I fake such a "bad" check.

So, Oatsmaster thought that Damdred was mafia anyway, and he doesn't seem to think that he needed any help pushing for Damdred's lynch at all. Well, the whole game didn't think that Damdred was mafia, this is obviously false. I didn't, at least (and my reasons for this were clearly stated, though Oatsmaster didn't bother talking about this).

On June 17 2015 15:28 Oatsmaster wrote:
You tried, you called him mafia and scummy a few times but that kinda shriveled.

Show nested quote +

damn it, you didnt get caught by my trap.

Hey kickstart, if damdred is mafia, you arent.

Can you explain the smartest possible reads possible assuming Im town kickstart?

If Damdred is clearly scum and the entire game says so, why is Oatsmaster bothering to try and set a trap for him, and why is he disappointed when Damdred doesn't fall into it? This doesn't make sense.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 08:37 GMT

#2402

Analysis of Day 4 (and other thoughts)

On June 19 2015 16:58 Trfel wrote:
Oatsmaster

Day 1 Read Progression: Inconsistent, interacted suspiciously with Sulfurus
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 13 2015 11:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
btw we still have like a day lol.

if bats flips town, ill be going after sulfurus.

On June 13 2015 18:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
I would lynch geript if we don't lynch bats.

What did geript and Sulfurus do in between these two posts?

On June 13 2015 15:38 Sulfurus wrote:

Show nested quote +

I would definitely lynch and Kick and I would be fine with a Geript lynch. Wave was very quick and eager to lynch on me and Damdred has posted too little for me to read him as town.

And no I don't think Bats has been more town recently at all.

On June 13 2015 15:58 Sulfurus wrote:
@trfel this post. It made me realize that just because Bats was town last time I tried to lynch doesn't mean it should stop me this time.

On June 13 2015 16:00 Sulfurus wrote:
Also I feel bad for saying I would lynch Damdred when he hasn't posted much. So now he isn't on my lynch list.

Nothing to warrant this change.

At the time that Oatsmaster switched from batsnacks to geript, the vote count was as follows:
Sulfurus (6): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveofShadow, scott31337, MoosyDoosy
batsnacks (5): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, Sulfurus, Trfel
geript (1): Rels

By this point, it was starting to look like Sulfurus would be lynched over batsnacks.

Here's some of Oatsmaster's discussion with batsnacks after MoosyDoosy voted for Sulfurus (putting him into the lead). No posts are omitted.

On June 13 2015 22:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
dammit bats I want to lynch mafia today but you are the scummiest.

On June 13 2015 22:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
argh now i feel like im nitpicking.
Ok Ok fine.

On June 13 2015 22:17 batsnacks wrote:

Show nested quote +

I never voted him! And I did explain that no one should claim!

Show nested quote +

And I am NOT the scummiest you are just caught in a logical fallacy that I WILL get you out of.

On June 13 2015 22:21 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

Here, it feels that Oatsmaster is suggesting lynching geript with batsnacks, who seven minutes ago he said was the scummiest in the thread. And batsnacks made a whole one post in this time.

With the vote count at 6 to 5 with Sulfurus leading, and the only players not on one of the two wagons (Damdred and Rels) saying they won't lynch batsnacks, it's pretty obvious that batsnacks won't be lynched.

Batsnacks and ruXxar say that they are willing to lynch geript, and despite Oatsmaster still talking about how batsnacks' posts are bad, and batsnacks not saying anything useful, Oatsmaster decides to lynch geript with batsnacks.

Night 1: False explanation for vote switch from batsnacks to geript
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 14 2015 09:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Let's get moosy tmr

On June 14 2015 09:36 Oatsmaster wrote:
I quite like lynching Scot.

Not impressed.

On June 14 2015 09:33 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

I thought bats looked town.

Because Oatsmaster definitely said that batsnacks looked towny. When he was making posts like these just before switching votes from batsnacks to geript:

On June 13 2015 23:00 Oatsmaster wrote:
lol everyone is a better lynch than you bats, even me.

well intentioned means that it feels like Rels is trying to find mafia.
Not very well but still.

Every other post of yours is bad bats.
...

On June 13 2015 23:09 Oatsmaster wrote:
Thats like the worst argument in existence.

Day 2: Scumreads Sulfurus, tries to lynch anyone else
+ Show Spoiler +

Going into Day 2, Oatsmaster was suspicious of MoosyDoosy, scott31337, Damdred, and Sulfurus.

On June 15 2015 08:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
that was a pretty bad kill.

Why exactly is everyone voting for rels and not sulph?

On June 15 2015 20:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
Rels just did his go through the thread and reply to every single post thing again.

And in the end, I have no idea who he thinks is scum, only numerous townreads.

On June 15 2015 21:29 Oatsmaster wrote:
I mean, it seems really convoluted, the most strategy Ive ever had as scum was to "ok try not to lynch my partners and lynch town".

So, Oatsmaster says that he doesn't want to lynch Rels, and suggests lynching Sulfurus instead (without voting for Sulfurus). Then he posts some suspicions of Rels. It almost feels like he's giving himself a way to jump to Rels later, if necessary.

On June 16 2015 08:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
I really dont like this kickstart lynch, its coming up super fast and everyone is supporting it.
What happened to lynching ruxxar? I thought that was pretty good.
or damdred.

On June 16 2015 10:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Kickstart is pretty damn obviously town and him not doing anything doesn't really diminish his start. Like this is a super easy lynch for scum to push because Kickstart 's attitude sucks and a pretty predictable response will come.

Let's lynch ruxxar instead.

On June 16 2015 10:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Seriously why the hell is kickstart a better lynch.
Can someone like trfel give me one reason that doesn't include the words activity and promises.

On June 16 2015 12:26 Oatsmaster wrote:
Damdred, do you want to lynch kickstart or not?

On June 16 2015 22:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Pretty ok case I guess. Dammit I hate being a wrong but now kickstart actually looks like mafia.

It's weird that sulph wants to lynch me rather than kickstart though.

So, despite scumreading Sulfurus all this time, seeing the wagons being Sulfurus and Kickstart, he doesn't vote. Then he pushes ruXxar, who he never mentioned being scummy so far Day 2 and Night 1. But Oatsmaster didn't actually vote for ruXxar, after a while he switched to Kickstart. Didn't mention Sulfurus throughout all of this.

Also note: constant scumread of Damdred, but never does anything about it
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 13 2015 22:46 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

lynch you instead?
sounds good to me.

His first mention of Damdred this game.

On June 14 2015 15:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Damdred didn't call me town, he's scum.
Also that completely pointless list post that has more townreads than scum reads.

Sulph / damdred mafia.

Scott also maybe.

On June 17 2015 09:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah, sorry Scott, that's not actually a case, just observation.

I ddidn't explain my scum reads cause I didn't think it was all that important.

Also I totally forgot about Damdred lol.
Damdred mafia.

Also, I never explained a reason for you to be mafia, so it can't be shit. Damdred should just know better than to townhunt rather than scumhunt

These are all the times that Oatsmaster references Damdred in the timeframe here.

After this, Oatsmaster does discuss his scumread of Damdred more, but the fact that he was constantly scumreading Damdred but not saying anything about it is strange.

Here is my previous case on Oatsmaster. The cop claim does nothing at all to explain these points from a town perspective. It's still a very valid case.

On June 21 2015 23:03 WaveofShadow wrote:
So I just noticed something interesting.
The timing of oats claim comes after he can be sure town doesn't have a cop.
He waits for everyone in the town to have posted to confirm rather than claim early in the day.

You ask 'but wave, everyone had posted already waayyy before oats claimed!' Look at the timing of trfels post. He posts and leaves before the idea of cop claiming comes up. Oats waits until he posts the second time to be absolutely sure its safe. (This actually means trfel is probably town?)

This is an extremely good point. I can't think of many good reasons why town!Oatsmaster, as cop, would wait for this long to claim, which validates this point even more.

Anyway, the main analysis. Starting from the bottom of page 110, at the start of Day 4.

Basically everyone was extremely suspicious of Oatsmaster at the start of Day 4, and suspicions of Oatsmaster had been around for quite some time.
+ Show Spoiler [Examples] +

On June 21 2015 07:12 ruXxar wrote:

Show nested quote +

Why was damdred your top scum, even over oats?

On June 21 2015 08:12 Kickstart wrote:
Don't like the position we are in. Oats deserves to die but if he is town then he fucked all of us by deciding to not play this game. If he is town now is the time for him to do something, otherwise he is still the best lynch.

(note that Oatsmaster claims to have checked Kickstart as town)

On June 21 2015 08:36 Rels wrote:
OK this idea was apparently bad. 4 people were for a Damdred lynch last day: batsnacks, me, WOS and Oats. Can see very well Oats as scum, but not WOS.

On June 21 2015 10:04 Kickstart wrote:
First of all whatever rels quoted me saying about scott isn't even close to the same thing. Dunno what universe he is in. Rels+oats scum team imo. Oats saying be not liking his play is too much of a compliment to himself. He hasn't been playing.
My filter looks like that because you are scum. Just go through Oats filter, it is pathetic how he has played and miraculous that he hasn't been lynched. I told town they would be sorry if oats lived till mylo/lylo and yet here we are.

Wave and trfel arent scummy atm at all and if they are are scum fine they can win. Oats is most scummy followed by rels/ruxxar and like I been saying forever oats needs to be lynched.

On June 21 2015 10:08 Kickstart wrote:
Ill make this real easy in fact. I refuse to move my vote. So you can vote with me and hit mafia or vote whoever mafia is trying to push and lose the game.

##vote Oatsmaster

The push on Kickstart doesn't make any sense from a town perspective at all. Given how widely Oatsmaster was being scumread, and how this was only getting worse since the day began, there's no way that Oatsmaster can get out of this without a claim.
+ Show Spoiler +

On June 21 2015 19:04 Oatsmaster wrote:
I didn't claim because if I managed to get wave lynche, and I don't die, it's almost auto.

On June 21 2015 23:15 Oatsmaster wrote:
Dude, i claimed because everyone called me mafia.

On June 22 2015 07:44 Oatsmaster wrote:
But the point of not claiming is because we have a much much much easier time tomorrow if I managed to get wave lynched without claiming.

So, Oatsmaster didn't claim right at the start of the day because if he avoided getting lynched himself, and got WaveofShadow lynched anyway, it would make it much better for town later. This logic is plausible, however it doesn't fit this case.

On June 21 2015 17:37 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

The thing that would make you town is to actually talk about sulf during the night which you didnt do, and instantly vote for him day 2 OR make a case that actually includes more than a d2 quote.

Anyway, you cant just say "its not scummy" when I have explained why its scummy, what in the world is the bolded thing even saying? "oh i can do whatever I want, you cant call it scummy." what bullshit. How do you find scum then?

I chose you because you are mafia.

Im cop, red checked wave yesterday.
greenchecked bats n1, kickstart n2.

Damn it, thought I could talk my way outta this.

Still gotta find the last mafia.

(key part in bold)
So he really thought he could avoid getting lynched, and get WaveofShadow lynched instead. And he's frustrated that he couldn't, forcing him to claim.

So, what did he do to defend himself, and what did he do to convince people that WaveofShadow was scum?

On June 21 2015 09:24 Oatsmaster wrote:
So I doubt bats was a hatter snipe.
Wave is more scummy than kickstart though.

Man I actually have to go through his filter and make a case.
Life sucks.

Also he will be pushing my ass for really bad reasons.

Can I preempt his omgus?

Bold added on the important part.

On June 21 2015 10:13 Oatsmaster wrote:
I'm town though. If you can post a coherent list of things I did and why that makes me scummy then I will take you seriously.

So he's willing to make a case on WaveofShadow to actually prove it (which was also requested by several people), and he's willing to defend himself against cases posted on him.

So, Kickstart (who Oatsmaster supposedly knows is town) made a case, and ruXxar immediately quoted it and agreed with it.

Here's the case:

On June 21 2015 11:03 Kickstart wrote:
Sure you are.
Lets gather a list of who Oats has called scummy.

Day1
Starts the game off with a retarded push on bats and thus starts the day1 nonsense where bats was a very possible lynch candidate.

Show nested quote +

Here again he is pushing the retarded bats read but notice him also hedging his bet on geript, WHO HE VOTES FOR LATER ANYWAYS.

Show nested quote +

First time he says I'm scum, in his typical shit reasons fashion. Though I guess with oats him giving a shit reason is a rarity cause as you will see he usually doesn't give any reason at all.

Show nested quote +

Voted on noobs, justification being noobs had just posted long advice posts instead of scumhunting.

Show nested quote +

He later took his vote off with a good point about noob continuing to post advice even after called out. But again scum could easily make such a point.

Show nested quote +

Notice the continual hedging of his reads and the flip flops. Here he does it while setting up to move his vote on geript. Notice also that up until this point he has only ever pushed for votes on people that are all confirmed town, 3 people not one of them scum. 4 town he pushed on if you count myself as I do.

Still in day 1, still willing to lynch whoever has the wagons and still hasn't pushed any original and meaningful reads.

Show nested quote +

More nonsense on day 1, again all on confirmed towns:

Show nested quote +

Night1/Day2
Oats posting around flips is ridiculous in general but this one is pretty good. After only arguing with bats for the entirety of day and bats being the main person he pushes, after the geript flip here is his defense for hoping on the geript wagon:

Show nested quote +

LOL at the blatant lies. Read his day1 filter and aside from the meaningless points his filter is only him 'pressuring'/arguing with/about bats. But he thought he was town, riiiiiiiiiiight.

He also picks up his calling almost everyone mafia. I didn't mention it earlier but he did earlier and here call sulfurus possible mafia, but note that he does not stick to this read or even push sulf at any point in the game. Even when sulf was lynched his vote wasn't there.

Show nested quote +

Just his usual causing a shitstorm and being non-committal and non-helpful.

Then we have the whole day2 vote situation in which oats looks bad in every way imaginable around this flip. First, hes been calling sulf scum but doesn't push the sulf lynch and his vote didn't even end up there it stayed on me.

The wagon on me is picking up steam, he goes from being so ridiculously against it to just saying ok fine and voting me and leaving his vote there:

Show nested quote +

all that only to then do this:

Show nested quote +

If I looked so towny and sulf looks so bad why the fuck wasn't his vote on sulf.

Day3
After the vote he gets even more ridiculous saying that no one can be confirmed town after this lynch. I'm just annoyed looking through his filter. Instead of trying to figure anything out or do anything productive when we just got the godfather to flip he just shits up the thread.

But when all else fails, oats goes back to his usual just calling everyone mafia with no reasons:

Show nested quote +

After the sulf flip he tries to paint me and damdred as the most likely scum at this point? That is just so retarded it still boggles my mind. I was the first vote on sulf and damdred was the second and oats tries to argue for a long time that neither of us really thought he was scum and our votes mean nothing because we could have bused him. Just ridiculous.

Anyways to shorten this down , oats tries to push on damdred or scott for the next lynch, both of which are confirmed town now. Now look at his current play and of all the people to say are scummy he is trying to push wave or me as being the scummiest???? Get real.

I suggest you all to read his filter. The only thing that ever made me reconsider was his early talking about sulf but then when it counted it amounted to literally nothing. If oats is town here then we just blame the loss on him because his play has been ridiculous. Again, read his filter, the whole thing is bad.

And here's the response:

On June 21 2015 11:20 Oatsmaster wrote:
Lol kick, why would I switch to you if I'm mafia. Can you explain that? Why don't I just lynch sulf especially since I can make up a real good reason why he's mafia.

The bad thing about this is that I definitely will look like town if I'm mafia.
I think wave is mafia because he didn't die.
I think you are mafia because the only thing on your mind the past 3 days is lynching me. When there are still 2 mafia alive.
Why do you say I'm hedging my vote just cause I call more than one person mafia at a time?

Also how am I the only person to think that Scott and damdred were mafia. Everyone in the game thought they were mafia.

He's not actually invested in defending himself, and he's not actually putting in effort.

On June 21 2015 13:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
I was reading waves filter and he is totally mafia. I can't quite write why, but his actions after geript got lynched are weird. He said he tried to get the lynch off geript? Nope. And he didn't even repeat his sulph scum read until day 2 when sulph made a horrific post. This reads a lot to me like wave asking his teammate to buck it up but then sulph just can't so he bussed.

On June 21 2015 13:34 Oatsmaster wrote:
Also he only has 11 pages in filter. Worse argument in existence.

So, here's his WaveofShadow case. And it doesn't have any substance.

First, WaveofShadow didn't say that he tried to get the lynch off of geript, he wasn't around for the deadline.

On June 14 2015 08:24 WaveofShadow wrote:
Yeah only thing I'll say about this but I feel like Geript was going down regardless of any errors. I certainly wasn't around to shout anything.

Oatsmaster never found a quote that actually shows this.

Second, pushing a player with extremely low activity when they aren't there right at the start of a day is really stupid. One thing that's stupider is pushing a player with extremely low activity when they aren't there during the night. This scumread doesn't make sense at all. Filter length definitely isn't a stand-alone argument.

I don't get the impression that Oatsmaster was seriously trying to get out of the lynch, at least not to the level he said he was.

A few other random points:

On June 21 2015 12:41 Oatsmaster wrote:
Btw can we nolynch? We should no lynch if we can.

Also, he asks about no lynching only after it's obvious that he isn't getting anywhere with the discussion.

On June 21 2015 12:46 Kickstart wrote:
Don't see why Oats is trying so hard to convince me. Like of all the players to convince that he is town surely I'm like the worst to try and convince.

This is a good point, and makes sense with his claim to have cop checked Kickstart.

Then, Oatsmaster claims cop. Until this point, WaveofShadow was looking really towny. I already analyzed the ways that his play this game differs from my experience playing with him where he was scum. The way he played Day 4 until the cop claim continued like this.

The tone of Oatsmaster's post where he's claiming cop feels a bit strange, but mostly believable. He sounds confident, yet frustrated that he was forced to claim.

I'm not sure what to make of the argument between them. WaveofShadow getting mad feels suspicious, as there's no reason for town!WaveofShadow to get mad arguing with mafia!Oatsmaster when he knows for a fact that Oatsmaster is mafia.

However, Oatsmaster continues to push false arguments. His explanation of the fake push on Kickstart is a bit hard to believe, and this:

On June 21 2015 19:05 Oatsmaster wrote:
Like wave isn't asking any of the obvious questions especially since I'm clearly lying if he's town. His reaction isn't like that at all.

is nonsense. If WaveofShadow is town, he knows that Oatsmaster is scum, because town would never fake a red check in MYLO. WaveofShadow has no reason to question Oatsmaster at all, except to further prove that he is town.

And this is what WaveofShadow does later, when he shows how Oatsmaster waited for everyone to post (suggesting that they weren't the cop) before he claimed.

As to the final point about claiming bad checks, Oatsmaster's been using the WIFOM defense all throughout the day. First by saying that he only looks scummy because he doesn't know alignments, he wouldn't take an uncertain stance on his scum buddy, and now that he wouldn't fake claim cop with bad checks. It's a bad argument.

As for the red check on WaveofShadow, and not an easier target, unless Oatsmaster decided to do this very early on, he didn't have much choice. His vote was on WaveofShadow, and at MYLO the town cop would need a really good reason to ever not vote for their red check. Furthermore, I doubt that Oatsmaster could pull off a cop fakeclaim on someone else, because WaveofShadow would probably be able to see through it. Claiming a red check on WaveofShadow is a great way to discredit the strongest player in the game.

WaveofShadow has been consistently towny all game. In contrast, Oatsmaster has been scummy for a while, and his play doesn't align with his cop claim and his supposed checks.

##vote Oatsmaster

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 08:42 GMT

#2403

Okay, NOW I am done. And I'm pretty darn confident in the result.

I'll look for the final mafia another time, for now I need sleep.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 17:54 GMT

#2527

You're right, I missed that game somehow. See the spoiler for more power role analysis.

+ Show Spoiler +

The game had town Roleblocker, Cop, and Mason pair versus mafia Roleblocker and Godfather.

So, this is four town power roles. However, a mason pair isn't very strong, the only real use is to claim (and even this can be unreliable). Overall, I'd say both masons are about the strength of one weaker normal blue role.

Furthermore, town Roleblockers are really weird. At the start of the game they are extremely weak, being as likely to hit town power roles as mafia carrying KP. Looking at the setup, the town has roleblocker as a possible role option, but no watcher/tracker. Therefore, in this setup mafia will be using their least suspected player to deliver KP, making the roleblocker extremely weak until there are few people left, when it's extremely strong.

Despite this game having four power roles, they're generally weaker. This game is balanced, despite mafia having the same, standard roleblocker/godfather setup as in all of the other, standard, two power role games.

Mad Hatter feels like a moderately strong role. Compare it to vigilante. When the Mad Hatter gets lynched, it's like a vigilante who gets to fire in the day. Otherwise, it's like a vigilante who gets to hold their bullet until the end of the game, but doesn't have to worry about being killed early. The disadvantage of the mad hatter is that their action is far less immediate than the vigilante's, and the vigilante can sometimes provide a confirmed town (which the mad hatter can rarely do).

Doctor is an extremely strong power role throughout the game. Can help confirm people, can help keep top townies alive, can block mafia KP, can force mafia to choose sub-optimal night kills. No downside to targeting town power roles (actually, an upside), and no downside to targeting mafia.

Cop is fairly strong, but I've heard that Doctor is a bit stronger.

It's hard to see town having the blue power of Cop/Doctor/Mad Hatter.

Still, if Oatsmaster is the cop, then he's the cop. The setup analysis is something to use to help make a decision, but it's not a stand-alone argument. It's important, but much less important than standard forms of analysis. If the only reason you think that Oatsmaster is scum is because of the power role balance, then you need to rethink that read.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 18:10 GMT

#2536

On June 22 2015 18:01 Oatsmaster wrote:
Look at the reaction from wave. Does that look like the reaction of a townie getting fake redchecked?

It looks like the reaction of mafia that got caught.

Why does it look like this? He got mad, and yes that is scummy. But his post about the timing of your claim is a really good point and perfectly matches what town!WaveofShadow should be trying to do.

On June 22 2015 16:57 Oatsmaster wrote:
Let's go with bats first.I thought he was town during d1 but when geript flipped town, I thought I should check bats to make sure that he wasnt fooling me because it didn't look like he was gonna get lynched the next day anyway.

2nd day. I thought it was a bus because it would've be suspicious for people to lynch kickstart when sulph was really obvious mafia. I don't think mafia tried to lynch Kickstart over sulph. Knowing Kickstart's alignment then makes it easier to find the mafia team. Also he wasn't on the chopping block or shooting block so imo it was a great check. I didn't do jack with this in terms of analysing other dudes though. Life is tough

3rd day,
At this point, I'm running outta checks. It's still not lylo though so I'm not checking damdred, there are better check and I have explained why.
I set a trap for damdred earlier in the day though. I'm pretty sure Scott hasn't gotten lynched at that point so I was setting a trap just to confirm him for people who have no idea.

Ok, so you admit that you checked Kickstart to help with association reads but didn't actually follow through with this.

Then Day 3, when you supposedly knew that Kickstart was town, why were you still yelling at people to not make association reads for the Sulfurus lynch?

So there were some people who had no idea that Damdred was mafia. Then why did you say you didn't want to check Damdred because everyone knew he was mafia and it was too obvious?

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 18:19 GMT

#2541

On June 23 2015 03:14 WaveofShadow wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't see why getting mad is scummy in the slightest tbh. When someone misrepresents your play and is posting lie about you, what is the natural reaction to that?

The natural reaction is to get mad.

I guess that's a fair point, it's natural to get somewhat mad even if you know that they are scum and intentionally twisting your play to seem scummier. Still, I would think that catching scum would give you a feeling of victory, which would overwhelm the anger at being misrepresented, though I guess still having two mafia left weakens this, too.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 18:23 GMT

#2543

On June 23 2015 03:16 Rels wrote:
No you were my 100% town read until a few hours ago.

When I found that Trfel's missing game I had the feeling I was missing something.
Like he did a case on everyone but not a "super scummy" Sulfurus.
You and Trfel had opposite opinions all game too. That's almost look like that's on purpose. On me, Damdred, Sulfurus, scott ... you were two of the most town read players, but never killed and never on the same page.
And lastly, I find weird that you had NO thoughts regarding the last scum, given that if you are really town, you must have thought about the game during 24 hours knowing Oats is mafia.

Voilà, here is my feeling.

I don't really care about the last scum right now. What I care about is getting this lynch right, and I think I have. I just need Oatsmaster to come back and talk to me for a bit more. Then I care about talking with everyone until we have an agreement, because we need to vote together.

Oatsmaster or WaveofShadow is scum. One of them is getting lynched today, and all that really matters right now is finding out which one. It doesn't matter if I catch the second scum if I'm wrong on today's lynch, then the game ENDS.

The last scum can be found at the night phase. And at the next day, and if we no lynch then, the day after that.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 18:25 GMT

#2545

Oh.... that post was directed at WaveofShadow, not me.

Sorry.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 18:35 GMT

#2551

On June 22 2015 18:14 Oatsmaster wrote:
Trfel, tell me. If someone claims a recheck on you, you will just go off on him right? Is your reaction anything like waves? No town reaction is like that.

I think WaveofShadow's point actually makes the most sense here. You weren't just claiming a red check on him, but you were misrepresenting his play. There are countless examples of it, and several of them have been pointed out.

I will be gone for an hour, maybe an hour and a half, sometime between now and the deadline. I should still be around for the deadline, though.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 20:17 GMT

#2552

Be back in maybe an hour or so.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 21:33 GMT

#2553

I'm back.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 21:50 GMT

#2557

You or Rels.... I guess I'm leaning towards Rels. Partly because of the associations with Oatsmaster over the past day.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 21:56 GMT

#2559

I should be able to do some analysis this evening, though I won't be back until later tonight.

It feels kind of lonely, though... makes me nervous.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 22:01 GMT

#2562

Seriously, I feel like there was a ton of good town play this game. This felt like the best newbie game I've ever played in. Town tended to care quite a bit, and no one truly gave up. People were also readily willing to discuss things with others and were open to new ideas.

I really hope to play again with everyone who played this game, preferably as town. I had a lot of fun this game, and I hope everyone else did, too.

Trfel

7015 Posts

June 22 2015 22:03 GMT

#2571

Yeah, I honestly didn't mean to leave out that game from my analysis. I just somehow missed it.

But it didn't change the overall point, combined with everything else, Oatsmaster's cop claim just didn't quite fit.

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