EPTOn June 13 2015 13:56 Trfel wrote:
What makes you sure?
What makes you sure?
Newbie Student Mafia XI - Page 3
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 13 2015 16:00 Sulfurus wrote: Why is him not posting much alignment indicative? Why does that have any effect on who you want to lynch?Also I feel bad for saying I would lynch Damdred when he hasn't posted much. So now he isn't on my lynch list. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 13 2015 16:20 n00bKing wrote: It makes him look active, and makes him look like he's doing stuff. Posts without purpose.Please explain further. What is the scum motivation to do that? On June 13 2015 16:20 n00bKing wrote: Hm, okay, I'll take a look at that game then.Rels? Dunno, man. He looks a lot to me like he did in Newbie X, when he was Town. But some of the veterans in this game are seeing stuff from him they don't like. I'm not ready to try and pass judgment on Rels, I'll just have to keep watching him. On June 13 2015 18:08 Rels wrote: Your first point is technically correct, but it doesn't mean anything. It's extremely easy for mafia!batsnacks to post this as scum. One good example of this is Onegu, who was known for a long time to only claim VT as town, and never as scum. Well, one game he did it as scum. If someone has a meta that "makes" them town, it's useless unless there's an actual reason why they can't do the same thing as scum.+ Show Spoiler + I went through batsnacks past games and I have two things to share with you all. First thing On June 13 2015 09:39 batsnacks wrote: [...] Also I only provide iching commentary when I'm town so I thank you for bringing this up. That's true. I found 3 games where I did something similar, all of them town. Posts in spoiler if you're curious. + Show Spoiler + Second thing On June 13 2015 08:23 batsnacks wrote: You don't have to believe this is my normal town meta because it's not, but you can't believe my scum meta is to post this much. I am a 1 page per day scum poster not a post more than anyone else scum poster. That's not as extreme as he's saying, but it is true. In particular, look at the size of the filters of these two games. In both he got lynched D1. Can you guess in which one he was scum ? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/474082-imperial-mafia?user=batsnacks http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/469267-fantasy-football-mafia-mini-2?user=batsnacks If you don't wanna play the guessing game: he has two times more post in the first game, where he was town. Conclusion By meta I don't think BS is mafia this game. ##Unvote As for the second point, again, the post quality is important, not just the quantity. Damdred's post on batsnacks is really interesting, those are things that I didn't check. However, comparing the two games that Rels linked, I don't see batsnacks fitting Damdred's description that much. Notably because while he's always been a leading wagon, it's always been very close. Looking at Imperial Mafia (town!batsnacks), I noticed that batsnacks' filter at End of Day was extremely productive and focused, and I'm not seeing that from batsnacks this game. I'll take a look at batsnacks' scum reads now. On June 14 2015 03:08 batsnacks wrote: Why does this matter? He did something generally considered to be bad, he got lynched for it, and I'd really hope he didn't do the same thing in his next game.Here are the final vote counts from the first two days of newbie X, notice how sulfurus is off doing his own thing Were his reasons for voting those people original, or sheeping others (even if not in the final vote)? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 12 2015 22:12 batsnacks wrote: I just saw this post......I wasn't implying that your post was forced I was implying that plants post was seemed forced. Or do you not care that I think plants post was forced? I have no idea how I missed this the first time. Batsnacks' read progression on Rels makes a lot more sense now. Maybe batsnacks really isn't the best lynch today. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 13 2015 06:41 geript wrote: Geript, I understand that you don't want to give away your secret read on Damdred, but I need to understand why you are saying this, at least on some level.Nah. Damdred is 100% town. He's gotten pretty easy to read. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
He was lynched Day 3, with only two pages of filter. When the pressure was on him, me barely responded at all. I just don't feel comfortable reading him. It's not just trying to tell newbie from scum, the complete lack of posts makes it a complete nightmare. I'd rather take a Day 1 lynch that isn't a shot in the dark. I really would appreciate it if geript answered my question to him here. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Geript and Damdred are both playing below the level that I would expect of them. Especially now that I found that post from batsnacks, I could lynch Rels. Damdred, if you had to lynch someone right now, who would you lynch? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote Rels | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 04:13 Sulfurus wrote: Other than batsnacks, who are you scumreading?+ Show Spoiler + On June 13 2015 22:42 Damdred wrote: Yeah bats is a completely stupid lynch, here. (Never use this again bats is to smart a player) If you look at bats last scum/town games you see a few things crop up. 1) as scum once it's clear that he is going to,be one of,l the leading wagons his care factor diminishes to a few posts randomly complaining without doing anything about it or pushing his own thoughts. In comparison here he is pushing what he thinks explaining why he's town,and,not giving,up. I liked bats when I first read his filter. He keeps pushing the thread. 2) as scum, he has developed an ability to have weak scum reads to a point. Here he has well reasoned or seemingly well reasoned reasons for calling people out. 3) resorts to trolling as scum when he's caught. He's not doing this here. Bats is town, besides meta. Biggest filter, most controversial figure d1. Okish reads. Leave the bats alone This read is so bad. Like if Bats is so smart what's stopping him from changing his meta this game. It's not like he is unaware of this meta either since he spammed the thread with his 'longest filter' defense. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 04:19 WaveofShadow wrote: I have several reasons to suspect them, some of which haven't been mentioned yet, but I'm not quite ready to share them. I don't want to interfere at this time, as doing so would invalidate my read.You were voting for bats right? What does you switching to rels have anything to do with damdred or geript? And you'd be lynching them only for activity if you did and not for any other reason despite people already mentioning all sorts o fthings (about geript mainly) Rels is primarily scummy for the reasons I mentioned earlier. However, the fact that he's still caught up on Fake)Plants' opening post despite saying that scott31337's posting seemed somewhat towny is really suspect to me. Immediately jumping on geript's unvoiced suspicion (despite scumreading geript) feels rather opportunistic. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 04:26 MoosyDoosy wrote: My thoughts on both of these players are on the previous page. If you have any more specific questions, feel free to ask.What about Sulfurus and batsnacks? Thoughts? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 13 2015 07:36 Rels wrote: (referring to Fake)Plants)I was sure 100% he was mafia. Now that he got replaced that has changed. On June 13 2015 08:40 Rels wrote: Alright scott I don't see your posts as scummy. On June 13 2015 09:07 Rels wrote: Null moosy Damdred scott On June 14 2015 01:27 Rels wrote: Yo geript. If you ever remember that reason I'll be super interested, as I hated plants' only post. I don't understand this at all. He basically says that he has no reason to scumread scott31337 any more, but doesn't townread him in his list post. And then, when geript (who he was voting for at this time) mentions a reason that he moved scott31337 to null (but says that he doesn't remember the reason), Rels is extremely interested and justifies this by referring back to his initial read on Fake)Plants. The read he already said has changed. He's just jumping on something that's there, and it's hard for me to see him really trying to figure out scott31337's alignment. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 04:30 MoosyDoosy wrote: Not thoughts that invalidate my reads like that Woah, Trfel, I would say it's especially important to share your thoughts if they do invalidate your reads. Otherwise we might all be bandwagoning on someone that's a fellow townie or someone who we didn't suspect was actually Mafia.  It's sort of like the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. If you make a measurement about a particle, that measurement affects whatever property you're trying to measure (sort of, anyway, I'm not very good at physics). If someone is doing something scummy and you tell them it's scummy, when they stop doing it that doesn't really help anything. If someone is doing something scummy and you sit quietly and observe, their behavior can be extremely revealing. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [Examples] + Criticizing MoosyDoosy's opening post (geript already did this) Suspicious of batsnacks (common suspicion), geript (WaveofShadow already said this), and MoosyDoosy (geript) Agrees with the suspicion I voiced on MoosyDoosy Immediately asked geript for his reason for being suspicious of scott31337, suddenly is more suspicious of him himself (see my previous post) It seems like Rels is like a leaf in the wind, following thread sentiment, jumping on whatever works. He townreads people who are being townread already, he scumreads people who are being scumread, and only changes when the thread sentiment shifts. The one major departure from this trend is when he townreads batsnacks. He did this before Damdred jumped in. This is a pretty big change in his read, and against the thread sentiment. However, I think that the way that Rels jumps on whatever suspicion is available every other time in the thread is quite telling. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 05:04 Sulfurus wrote: I don't even......If it wasn't clear I would lynch trfel and I shouldn't have ignored him just for voting bats. Do you have any REASONS for lynching me? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 14 2015 05:07 n00bKing wrote: I have no clue where you get this idea.This post is pitiful. Like, PITIFUL. You're completely disregarding the whole reason Rels thought FakePlants was scum to begin with. Everything in Rels' thought progression on FakePlants/scott makes sense. First, it the reason that Rels thought that Fake)Plants was scum isn't important for this argument. Rels himself said that the reason is invalidated by scott31337's replacement, and then he kept jumping back on it whenever opportunity presented itself, despite saying that scott31337's posts weren't scummy. Please explain how this makes sense. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Very interested to hear why Sulfurus thinks I am scum. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Why would geript say that Sulfurus is mafia defending town badly if he is voting for Rels (who Sulfurus is defending)? I might just sheep you on that  | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Wow. | ||
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